Key Takeaways:

• A new wallet pulled 1,051 BTC worth $82.35 million from Binance, per Lookonchain.
• U.S. bitcoin ETFs recorded $630 million in net inflows on May 1, amplifying the bullish demand signal.
• Centralized exchanges have shed over $26 billion in bitcoin and ether since January 2026.

New Wallet, Big Move

Onchain intelligence platform Lookonchain flagged the withdrawal, noting that the receiving wallet had been newly created, a common fingerprint of institutional players or high-net-worth individuals seeking to self-custody large holdings outside of exchange infrastructure.

At the prevailing price of approximately $78,000 per bitcoin, the 1,051 BTC haul is valued at roughly $82.35 million. The transaction was confirmed in a single block, and no subsequent movement has been recorded from the destination address, a pattern consistent with long-term storage rather than positioning for a near-term sale.

What Exchange Outflows Tell Us

Large bitcoin withdrawals from centralized exchanges typically pertain to coins that cannot be immediately sold. Sustained outflow trends reduce available sell-side supply and, over time, tend to tighten price floors.

That trend has been running hard in 2026, marked by a massive structural shift away from traditional exchange-held balances. According to CryptoQuant, February alone saw over 31.6 million ETH withdrawn from centralized exchanges, driving reserves to multi-year lows. Analysts attribute this shift to a growing institutional preference for direct custody and regulated vehicles over traditional exchange-held balances.

The timing of today’s withdrawal adds to an already constructive demand picture. On May 1, U.S. bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $630 million, with ether ETFs adding a further $101 million, one of the stronger single-day readings in recent months.

Part of a Larger Whale Pattern

Cryptoquant data published earlier this year showed bitcoin whales quietly buying thousands of coins over a two-month window, even as retail sentiment remained cautious. However, institutional accumulation is not one-directional, because a separate investigation tracked a different whale sending 1,000 BTC to Binance and booking a $3.42 million profit, a reminder that large players are actively positioned on both sides of the market simultaneously.

One thing from this latest move is that whoever controls this new wallet has decided not to leave 1,051 bitcoin on an exchange, and at this price level, that decision alone could carry substantial weight.

Mohamed “Moe” Mohamed didn’t think the cryptocurrency ATM installed in his Heber City convenience store, Mountainland One Stop, about a year ago would cause so much trouble. He knew Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were gaining traction, so he thought nothing of signing a three-year contract to keep the machine in his store.

But Mohamed began to notice an influx of people, many elderly, visiting the store to use it as soon as it was installed. Many came with cash in hand, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars, to deposit. 

Mohamed asked these customers what they were doing, and he quickly realized they were being scammed. Unable to get out of his contract, Mohamed implemented a store policy: keep customers away from the machine at all costs.

The Heber City Council gave Mohamed a way out of his contract when it passed an ordinance prohibiting cryptocurrency ATMs on April 7. The operator of the cryptocurrency ATM has 60 days from the passing of the ordinance to uninstall the machine, which is the only one in Heber City.

Police Chief Parker Sever suggested the ban after hearing a presentation about cryptocurrency fraud from the Utah Attorney General’s Office a few months ago and having subsequent conversations with Mohamed.

“There was no intent on the part of One Stop to commit any fraud or to hurt anybody. In fact, they’re actively trying to do the opposite,” Sever said. “When they put that machine in there, they thought it was for a legitimate purpose, as I probably would have at the time, too.”

Cryptocurrency ATMs charge transaction fees ranging from 20% to 40%, while other online methods charge much lower fees, according to a city staff report. Additionally, these machines have minimal oversight and regulatory control, making them popular for fraud and other criminal activity.

Utah Criminal Deputy Attorney General Stewart Young said scammers from other countries often use cryptocurrency ATMs to transfer money across borders. That also makes them popular tools for money launderers.

Fraud involving these machines often involves the scammer convincing the victim to deposit money into the scammer’s account, Young explained. 

Persuasion can take a variety of forms.

For example, “pig-slaughtering” scams involve the scammer targeting a victim online and fattening them up through romance and affection before bleeding them dry.

“The scammer will invariably pretend to be an oil worker working on an oil rig in the Pacific Ocean or something like that,” Young said. “They’ll develop a romance online, and eventually, at some point, they’ll come up with some reason that they need money. It might be, ‘I really want to spend the rest of my life with you, but I can’t get off this oil rig. I want to start my own oil drilling business … and then we can be together forever.’”

Other scammers impersonate law enforcement officials and threaten legal consequences for missing jury duty or not paying a traffic ticket, all while insisting that the situation can be resolved by depositing money at a cryptocurrency ATM.

Another common scheme creates the illusion of investment. After the victim deposits money using a virtual currency kiosk, the scammer will deposit some of their own money into the account to make it look as if the victim’s investment is earning interest, Young explained. The scammer will convince the victim to deposit larger and larger amounts before withdrawing the money and shutting down the account.

Young estimated more than 90% of cryptocurrency ATM transactions are related to fraud or other criminal activity. 

That’s one reason the Utah House of Representatives passed House Bill 72 during the recent 2026 legislative session. The bill, sponsored by Republican Rep. Ryan D. Wilcox, who represents Weber County, creates statewide restrictions on cryptocurrency ATMs.

The bill requires operators of cryptocurrency ATMs to display a fraud prevention warning in English and Spanish and provide a toll-free, 24/7 customer service line. The machines also must print receipts, including transaction information and the relevant state law enforcement or government agency for reporting fraud.

The bill also makes it illegal for a cryptocurrency ATM to accept transactions over a certain amount. The machine cannot accept more than $2,000 per day during the three days following the customer’s first virtual currency kiosk transaction. After that period, the machine cannot accept more than $5,000 from a single customer per day.

These provisions go into effect on Wednesday.

Starting July 1, local law enforcement agencies are required to have at least one officer undergo specialized cryptocurrency investigation training at least once every three years.

Some cities have banned cryptocurrency ATMs altogether. Layton was the first city in Utah to do so, which it did in March. Heber City was the second and modeled its ordinance on Layton’s.

Two states, Indiana and Tennessee, have passed legislation banning cryptocurrency ATMs. Both states’ respective governors signed bills during this year’s legislative session. 

Undersheriff Josh Probst said there are no other cryptocurrency ATMs the Sheriff’s Office is aware of in Wasatch County.

In Summit County, Park City Police Department Lt. Danielle Snelson and Sheriff’s Office Sgt. Skyler Talbot said they were only aware of one cryptocurrency ATM, located at Top Stop Chevron on the side of S.R. 224. They were unaware of plans to propose any bans. Snelson said no issues with the machine had been reported to the Police Department. 

Mohamed feels “terrible” that the cryptocurrency ATM was ever installed in Mountainland One Stop and is grateful for Heber City’s ban.

“It’s been the worst thing I’ve ever put in a business, and I’ve owned my own business for 22 years,” he said. “I would advise every city, every county and state to ban these.”

Related Stories

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin AI models gave Dec. 31, 2026, targets from $84,500 to $118,400.
• Polymarket gives BTC 87% odds of topping $80,000 and 40% odds at $100,000.
• Bitcoin’s 2026 close hinges on ETF flows, liquidity, and institutional demand.

Nearly a Dozen AI Models See Bitcoin Recovering in 2026, but Not Reclaiming Its $126K Peak

Earlier in April, Bitcoin.com News drew on odds from several prediction marketplace events across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad, where traders at the time leaned moderately bullish. Two weeks on, those probabilities remain largely intact, and as of this week, Polymarket data indicates an 87% likelihood that BTC will exceed $80,000 per coin and a 40% chance it reaches $100,000 by year’s end.

For this exercise, we consulted 11 of today’s leading AI chatbots from some of the largest technology firms, posing a straightforward question: What will bitcoin’s price be at the close of Dec. 31, 2026? Our newsdesk turned to chatbots, such as ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, Qwen, Copilot, Venice, Pi, Gemini, and several others, to assess how these systems would respond.

The prompt presented to the models was:

This intellectual exercise crafts a forward-looking framework for bitcoin’s valuation at the close of Dec. 31, 2026. The asset notched an unprecedented high of $126,272 in Oct. 2025. Entering the first week of May, its price sits just above $76,000 after dipping to a low of $59,930 on Feb. 5, 2026. As a seasoned crypto analyst in the bitcoin arena, you are tasked with outlining the currency’s potential year-end trajectory and offering a crisp, coherent rationale for your estimate in two to three sentences (max). Determine the definitive closing price of BTC on Dec. 31, 2026, and state your projected U.S. dollar valuation for bitcoin as that day comes to an end. What is your estimation?

Claude Sonnet 4.6:

Grok:

My estimation for Bitcoin’s closing price on December 31, 2026, is $108,500.

Bitcoin’s post-2024 halving cycle peaked at $126k in October 2025 before the standard 40-50% drawdown into early 2026; we’re now in the typical mid-cycle consolidation phase where ETF inflows (already turning strongly positive again in April 2026) and institutional accumulation replace the old miner-driven volatility. With the four-year cycle maturing and macro liquidity expected to improve, 2026 becomes a grind-up year rather than a euphoric new leg—supported by models clustering around $98k–$110k base case. This lands us at a credible year-end close above six figures without assuming another blow-off top.

Gwen 3.6 Plus:

ChatGPT 5.3 Instant:

Pi AI:

Le Chat:

Deepseek (Deepthink mode):

Based on the October 2025 peak of $126,272 and the subsequent correction to a low of $59,930 in February 2026, Bitcoin is likely in a post-halving consolidation phase typical of its four-year cycle. The rebound to $76,000 by early May suggests a bottoming process, and with institutional accumulation absorbing sell pressure, the price will gradually recover to close the year at $84,500 on Dec. 31, 2026.

Gemini 3 Fast:

Bitcoin Valuation Framework: Dec. 31, 2026

Based on current market structures and historical cycle data, the projected closing price for bitcoin on December 31, 2026, is $114,500.

Rationale

This valuation anticipates a “second-leg” recovery following the mid-2026 correction, supported by a projected shift toward U.S. monetary easing and the stabilization of institutional spot ETF outflows. While the asset remains below its October 2025 high of $126,272, the year-end trajectory benefits from bitcoin’s maturation into a “macro beta” asset that tracks increasing global liquidity and the exhaustion of the post-halving sell pressure.

Projected Valuation (Dec. 31, 2026): $114,500

Venice AI:

Based on bitcoin’s established four-year halving cycle and the current trajectory following its October 2025 peak, I project bitcoin will reach $94,500 by December 31, 2026. This valuation accounts for the typical 6-9 month consolidation phase post-peak and the accelerating institutional adoption expected throughout the year as regulatory clarity continues to improve globally.

Claude Opus 4.6:

Copilot:

Bitcoin is likely to close around $92,000 on December 31, 2026.
This estimate reflects a moderate recovery from early‑2026 lows but stops short of retesting the 2025 all‑time high.

Bitcoin entered 2026 with sharp volatility, falling as low as $59,930 on Feb. 5, 2026 before stabilizing in the mid‑$70Ks by late April, indicating a market still digesting the post‑ATH drawdown and ETF outflows. Institutional flows, monetary easing, and post‑halving supply dynamics support a gradual rebound, but sentiment remains cautious and options markets continue to price wide‑range outcomes, making a mid‑$90K finish the most balanced trajectory.

Weighing the Variables

Taken together, the slew of AI models produced a spread ranging from a low of $84,500 to a high of $118,400, with most clustering in the $94,000 to $118,000 band by year’s end. The outliers on both ends reflect genuine uncertainty in how each system weights cycle exhaustion against the pace of institutional demand. No model predicted a new all-time high, and none called for a retest of the February lows. That relative convergence around a recovery, rather than a breakout or a collapse, is itself telling.

What the exercise reveals is less about any single price target and more about how AI systems process the same market input and prompt. Each model pulled from similar data, the halving cycle, ETF flows, the $59,930 floor, the $126,272 peak, and arrived at different conclusions based on how it weighted those variables. Prediction markets, meanwhile, still assign meaningful odds to a $100,000 close.

Where bitcoin actually lands on December 31 will come down to the same forces these models identified: liquidity conditions, institutional behavior, and whether the second half of 2026 delivers the macro environment that the more bullish estimates are counting on.