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New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

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New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

The new study has delved into cryptocurrency prices, particularly bitcoin, revealing that markets are significantly influenced by both conventional financial factors and crypto-specific factors.

The paper by Austin Adams from Uniswap Labs, Markus Ibert from the Copenhagen Business School Department of Finance, and Gordon Liao from Circle Internet Financial was published earlier this week.

What Drives Crypto Markets?

The researchers used a “sign-restricted vector auto-regressive (VAR) model” enabling them to examine crypto price fluctuations that come from spillovers from traditional financial markets versus risks inherent to crypto assets.

The new model broke bitcoin returns down into various shocks, including monetary policy, conventional risk premium, adoption, and crypto risk premium shocks. It revealed that monetary policy shocks have a substantial impact on bitcoin prices, especially over longer time horizons.

For example, contractionary monetary policy when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates accounted for over two-thirds of bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022 when the asset retreated around 65%.

The crypto contagion caused by the collapse of the Terra/Luna ecosystem and FTX later in the year also contributed to that big bear market.

The research noted that while conventional shocks can have large lower-frequency impacts on crypto prices, “most day-to-day movements in bitcoin prices are left unexplained” by these disruptions.

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Bitcoin returns by shock since 2019. Source: Uniswap Labs

It also found that when there is turmoil in the crypto market, people tend to move their money into stablecoins, exhibiting behavior similar to how investors might buy gold or government bonds during stock market turbulence.

When BlackRock announced plans for a Bitcoin ETF, the model detected both increased adoption of the asset class and a decrease in crypto-specific risk aversion. In simple terms, this news made people more interested in BTC and less worried about its risks, driving up the price.

Crypto Not Yet Integrated With TradFi

The researchers concluded that while crypto isn’t entirely separate from the broader financial ecosystem, it’s not completely integrated either.

Their findings highlight the importance of identifying drivers of crypto returns and understanding the asset class’s evolving relationship with traditional financial markets.

With a Federal Reserve rate cut expected in September, crypto markets should do well later this year due to increased liquidity and risk appetite. This also aligns with the four-year market cycle, which should see a bull market peak in late 2025 … if history rhymes.

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UK Passes Property (Digital Assets etc) Act Formally Recognizing Crypto as Property

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UK Passes Property (Digital Assets etc) Act Formally Recognizing Crypto as Property

The U.K. now formally recognizes cryptocurrency as property following the passing of a new law this week.

The Property (Digital Assets etc) Act received Royal Assent, the final step of an act becoming law after being passed by Parliament.

The act, approved by King Charles on Tuesday, was designed to modernize property law to take account of digital assets. Previously, property fell into one of two categories: things in possession, such as physical objects, and things in action, such as a debt.

The law establishes a third category that includes digital assets such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

Crypto industry associations welcomed the law, hailing it as an important step in the legal recognition of digital assets and therefore instilling greater confidence for users.

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“This change provides greater clarity and protection for consumers and investors by ensuring that digital assets can be clearly owned, recovered in cases of theft or fraud, and included within insolvency and estate processes,” trade association CryptoUK wrote in a post on X.

“By recognising digital assets in law, the UK is giving consumers clear ownership rights, stronger protections, and the ability to recover assets lost through theft or fraud,” Gurinder Singh Josan MP, co-chair of the Crypto and Digital Assets All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) wrote in an emailed comment.

Cryptocurrency has previously been treated as property in court, but this has been on a case-by-case basis. This act makes the recognition law.

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$11T Vanguard Lays out ‘What Investors Need to Know’ as Crypto ETF Doors Blast Open

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T Vanguard Lays out ‘What Investors Need to Know’ as Crypto ETF Doors Blast Open
Vanguard has published new guidance outlining what investors need to know about crypto exposure, pairing expanded access to third-party digital-asset funds with a push for clearer understanding of product structure, risks and how these holdings fit into broader portfolios.
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The Best Cryptocurrency to Buy With $100 Right Now | The Motley Fool

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The Best Cryptocurrency to Buy With 0 Right Now | The Motley Fool

Bitcoin is still the best crypto investment for cautious investors.

Bitcoin‘s (BTC +2.34%) price hit an all-time high of $126,198 on Oct. 6. That marked a gain of more than 30% from the beginning of the year. But as of this writing, it trades at about $85,000 — and it’s declined about 9% year to date. Bitcoin gave up all of its gains for the year as the unpredictable macro environment drove more investors to take profits and retreat from the speculative crypto market. A lack of clear near-term catalysts likely exacerbated that pressure.

But despite those near-term challenges, I think Bitcoin is still the best cryptocurrency to nibble on in this volatile market. I wouldn’t invest my life savings in Bitcoin, but I think a modest $100 investment — which would only get you about 0.0011 Bitcoin right now — could still be churned into a few thousand dollars as some longer-term catalysts kick in.

Image source: Getty Images.

What are Bitcoin’s long-term catalysts?

Bitcoin is the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency. With a market cap of $1.7 trillion, it’s also the third most valuable commodity after gold ($29.3 trillion) and silver ($3.2 trillion). Three long-term catalysts drove it to the top of the crypto market. First, it launched its coin in 2009, back when the concept of cryptocurrencies still seemed like a fantasy. That first-mover advantage helped it stay ahead of the other blockchains and tokens that followed its lead.

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Bitcoin Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(2.34%) $2013.86

Current Price

$88092.00

Second, Bitcoin was mined with an energy-intensive proof-of-work mechanism that required its miners to solve cryptographic puzzles with their computers to earn the coins as rewards. Every four years, the rewards for mining are cut in half with a scheduled halving — so it becomes increasingly difficult to mine the token for a profit.

Bitcoin also has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, and 19.9 million of those have already been mined. The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined by 2140. That scheduled scarcity makes it more similar to gold and silver than other cryptocurrencies.

Lastly, Bitcoin is attracting a lot of attention from retail, institutional, corporate, and government investors. The approvals of its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) made it easier to invest in Bitcoin, and big financial institutions like BlackRock and tech companies like Strategy are still accumulating the token.

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El Salvador and the Central African Republic already recognize Bitcoin as legal tender, and more inflation-wracked countries could follow that lead. The Trump administration also proposed the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — to store the government’s seized Bitcoins and use tax-free methods to accumulate more Bitcoin — earlier this year. That firm support indicates that Bitcoin, which is priced in U.S. dollars, could become a global hedge against inflation.

Why should investors tune out the near-term noise?

Bitcoin remains a divisive investment for the bulls and bears. Strategy’s co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin’s price to reach $21 million by 2046, but Nobel Prize-winning economist Eugene Fam believes it will go to zero within the next decade.

I believe both arguments are too extreme. Bitcoin has already gained too much momentum among the big investors to go back to zero, but soaring 23,000% to $21 million would boost its market cap to nearly $416 trillion. That’s nearly 10 of today’s Nvidias, the world’s most valuable company.

For Bitcoin’s price to soar that high, the U.S. dollar might need to crash. That hyperinflation probably wouldn’t occur unless the U.S. economy collapsed in a cataclysmic event.

So instead of betting on a huge global depression, I believe Bitcoin will land somewhere between those two targets. If we go back 20 years, gold was trading at just $477 per ounce. Today, it trades at about $4,200 per ounce. So if Bitcoin is actually digital gold — as many of its proponents claim — it could rise at least 10-fold during the next two decades. That makes it a good cryptocurrency to invest in today, even if it goes through some wild swings during the next few years.

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