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New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

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New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

The new study has delved into cryptocurrency prices, particularly bitcoin, revealing that markets are significantly influenced by both conventional financial factors and crypto-specific factors.

The paper by Austin Adams from Uniswap Labs, Markus Ibert from the Copenhagen Business School Department of Finance, and Gordon Liao from Circle Internet Financial was published earlier this week.

What Drives Crypto Markets?

The researchers used a “sign-restricted vector auto-regressive (VAR) model” enabling them to examine crypto price fluctuations that come from spillovers from traditional financial markets versus risks inherent to crypto assets.

The new model broke bitcoin returns down into various shocks, including monetary policy, conventional risk premium, adoption, and crypto risk premium shocks. It revealed that monetary policy shocks have a substantial impact on bitcoin prices, especially over longer time horizons.

For example, contractionary monetary policy when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates accounted for over two-thirds of bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022 when the asset retreated around 65%.

The crypto contagion caused by the collapse of the Terra/Luna ecosystem and FTX later in the year also contributed to that big bear market.

The research noted that while conventional shocks can have large lower-frequency impacts on crypto prices, “most day-to-day movements in bitcoin prices are left unexplained” by these disruptions.

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Bitcoin returns by shock since 2019. Source: Uniswap Labs

It also found that when there is turmoil in the crypto market, people tend to move their money into stablecoins, exhibiting behavior similar to how investors might buy gold or government bonds during stock market turbulence.

When BlackRock announced plans for a Bitcoin ETF, the model detected both increased adoption of the asset class and a decrease in crypto-specific risk aversion. In simple terms, this news made people more interested in BTC and less worried about its risks, driving up the price.

Crypto Not Yet Integrated With TradFi

The researchers concluded that while crypto isn’t entirely separate from the broader financial ecosystem, it’s not completely integrated either.

Their findings highlight the importance of identifying drivers of crypto returns and understanding the asset class’s evolving relationship with traditional financial markets.

With a Federal Reserve rate cut expected in September, crypto markets should do well later this year due to increased liquidity and risk appetite. This also aligns with the four-year market cycle, which should see a bull market peak in late 2025 … if history rhymes.

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Crypto

Bitcoin flashes doom signals; Expect 'much lower' prices

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Bitcoin flashes doom signals; Expect 'much lower' prices

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price drop has accelerated, with the cryptocurrency slipping below $60,000 at some point in the last 24 hours, and analysts are projecting further losses.

Technical indicators suggest that the maiden cryptocurrency is flashing a series of concerning signals pointing to a significant decline in value.

In a TradingView post on August 4, crypto trading expert Alan Santana noted that Bitcoin is likely heading for much lower levels before it can expect new highs or significant growth.

One of Santana’s most alarming indicators is the bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). Bitcoin is exhibiting a striking divergence that has been developing over three years. 

Specifically, the RSI made a lower high in 2024 than in 2021, despite Bitcoin’s price showing higher highs during the same period. This discrepancy between price action and RSI is a classic bearish signal, suggesting that the underlying momentum driving Bitcoin’s price upward has weakened considerably.

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Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView/Alan Santana

Adding to the bearish outlook, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is trending downward, with a reading of 50.6. This is significant as it indicates that the long-term RSI is about to turn bearish for the first time since August 2023.

More notably, coming from a major high, this bearish shift in the RSI is the first since November 2021. According to the expert, such a development typically precedes a prolonged downturn, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum and the potential for substantial price declines.

“Doom signal? It is only doom if you are not prepared. On top of the bearish divergence we have Bitcoin’s weekly RSI trending full down with a reading of 50.6. This, and other signals, is telling us that there is room for lower prices; much lower, before we experience new highs and boom growth,” the expert stated. 

Bitcoin’s key levels to watch 

At the moment, Bitcoin’s price appears to form a descending triangle pattern, a bearish formation that often precedes further declines. Critical support levels to watch include the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $37,795 and the 200-week moving average, which could act as potential downside targets. 

Additionally, decreasing volume on upward price movements suggests weakening buying interest, adding to the bearish case.

At the same time, another analyst, Rekt Capital, in an X post on August 3, also noted that the current Bitcoin RSI readings will likely dictate the extent of additional downside.

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“Bitcoin is getting really close to this RSI Higher Low trendline. It will dictate the extent of additional downside,” the expert said. 

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin also took a hit following troubling signs in the United States economy. Indeed, investors will be looking at strategies implemented by the Federal Reserve to rescue the economy, as this will dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Bitcoin price analysis 

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $60,868, having plunged 1.5% in the last 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is down over 10%.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Overall, Bitcoin looks bearish, and the bulls’ ability to sustain the price above the $60,000 support will be key to reducing any further losses.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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Nigeria Acts to Stabilize Currency with Forex Auction – Africa Bitcoin News

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Nigeria Acts to Stabilize Currency with Forex Auction – Africa Bitcoin News
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will reintroduce a foreign exchange auction system as part of efforts to ease pressure on the local currency. The CBN has called on authorized dealer banks to share their respective lists of outstanding forex demand by end users. Auction System Aims to Mitigate Impact of Dollar Shortage on Exchange […]
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Wondering When To Buy Bitcoin? Here Are The Levels To Watch

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Wondering When To Buy Bitcoin? Here Are The Levels To Watch

Due to market volatility and Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuations, identifying the best times to buy the pioneer cryptocurrency can be challenging. Taking this into consideration, a crypto analyst has pinpointed key price levels for investors to monitor for potential buying opportunities. 

Buy Levels To Watch For The Bitcoin Price

A crypto analyst identified as ‘Stockmoney Lizards’ took to X (formerly Twitter) on August 1 to discuss Bitcoin’s recent price movements, highlighting key buy levels and the cryptocurrency’s propensity for a price increase. The analyst notes that Bitcoin’s current price actions indicate a classic 5-wave uptrend followed by an ABC correction with an overarching wave B. 

An ABC correction is a continuous pattern that occurs during uptrends or downtrends. It is a pattern within the Elliott Wave Theory that reflects a three wave correction and helps identify a trend continuation. 

Sharing a Bitcoin price chart illustrating each wave (A, B, and C), the analyst disclosed that Wave B ended at the Value Area High (VAH) around the $69,885 mark. According to the analyst, this price level historically acted as a resistance. This means that Bitcoin’s price may face difficulty moving above this point.

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The analyst further revealed that the $66,745 price point also acted as a resistance level for Bitcoin. He highlighted this critical level on the BTC price chart, emphasizing that the red line represents a Point Of Control (POC) for the cryptocurrency. 

Moreover, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level for Bitcoin is identified as a potential support area for a new uptrend. The analyst disclosed that this crucial level coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the Value Area Low (VAL), which are all important support levels. 

Concluding his analysis, the crypto analyst suggested that the support area between $61,800 and $62,300 was an important buying level to watch out for. He noted that on the higher timeframe, Bitcoin’s potential uptrend was still intact, adding that if the cryptocurrency’s price breaks below the $61,800 mark, then a further decline to test the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at $56,800 should be expected. 

Overall, the crypto analyst is leaning towards a bullish outlook for the short term and mid term timeframes in Bitcoin’s price. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,594, reflecting a 4.21% decline in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. 

BTC Poised To Breakout In September

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Other analysts have also remained relatively bullish on Bitcoin’s price, predicting rallies to new all-time highs for the pioneer cryptocurrency. According to a crypto analyst identified as ‘TOBTC’ on X, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline in its price, falling below the $63,000 price mark. 

The analyst revealed that despite Bitcoin getting rejected at the $70,000 resistance, a potential breakout is expected by September. This bullish sentiment is shared by a different crypto analyst, Michael van de Poppe, who predicts that if Bitcoin holds above $60,000 to $61,000, the cryptocurrency could witness an upward movement to new all time highs in September or October 2024. 

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