Connect with us

Crypto

New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

Published

on

New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers 

The new study has delved into cryptocurrency prices, particularly bitcoin, revealing that markets are significantly influenced by both conventional financial factors and crypto-specific factors.

The paper by Austin Adams from Uniswap Labs, Markus Ibert from the Copenhagen Business School Department of Finance, and Gordon Liao from Circle Internet Financial was published earlier this week.

What Drives Crypto Markets?

The researchers used a “sign-restricted vector auto-regressive (VAR) model” enabling them to examine crypto price fluctuations that come from spillovers from traditional financial markets versus risks inherent to crypto assets.

The new model broke bitcoin returns down into various shocks, including monetary policy, conventional risk premium, adoption, and crypto risk premium shocks. It revealed that monetary policy shocks have a substantial impact on bitcoin prices, especially over longer time horizons.

For example, contractionary monetary policy when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates accounted for over two-thirds of bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022 when the asset retreated around 65%.

The crypto contagion caused by the collapse of the Terra/Luna ecosystem and FTX later in the year also contributed to that big bear market.

The research noted that while conventional shocks can have large lower-frequency impacts on crypto prices, “most day-to-day movements in bitcoin prices are left unexplained” by these disruptions.

Advertisement
Bitcoin returns by shock since 2019. Source: Uniswap Labs

It also found that when there is turmoil in the crypto market, people tend to move their money into stablecoins, exhibiting behavior similar to how investors might buy gold or government bonds during stock market turbulence.

When BlackRock announced plans for a Bitcoin ETF, the model detected both increased adoption of the asset class and a decrease in crypto-specific risk aversion. In simple terms, this news made people more interested in BTC and less worried about its risks, driving up the price.

Crypto Not Yet Integrated With TradFi

The researchers concluded that while crypto isn’t entirely separate from the broader financial ecosystem, it’s not completely integrated either.

Their findings highlight the importance of identifying drivers of crypto returns and understanding the asset class’s evolving relationship with traditional financial markets.

With a Federal Reserve rate cut expected in September, crypto markets should do well later this year due to increased liquidity and risk appetite. This also aligns with the four-year market cycle, which should see a bull market peak in late 2025 … if history rhymes.

Advertisement
SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)

Binance Free $600 (CryptoPotato Exclusive): Use this link to register a new account and receive $600 exclusive welcome offer on Binance (full details).

LIMITED OFFER 2024 at BYDFi Exchange: Up to $2,888 welcome reward, use this link to register and open a 100 USDT-M position for free!

Advertisement

Crypto

U.S. Senate to Launch Cryptocurrency Subcommittee, Lummis Tapped as Chair

Published

on

U.S. Senate to Launch Cryptocurrency Subcommittee, Lummis Tapped as Chair

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee, under the leadership of Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.), is poised to establish a dedicated cryptocurrency subcommittee to advance discussions on digital asset regulation and industry oversight, according to a report by Fox News.

The formation of this subcommittee, modeled after a similar House panel created in 2023, marks a pivotal step toward a more structured approach to crypto legislation at the federal level.

A Senate aide told Fox News that Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a staunch advocate for cryptocurrency, is the tentative choice to chair this groundbreaking panel. The selection of Lummis, pending a committee vote next Thursday, signals a shift in the Senate’s approach to digital assets. Alongside her nomination, the subcommittee members, representing both Republican and Democratic sides, will also be finalized through the same voting process.

Lummis, known for her vocal support of Bitcoin, has described the asset as “freedom money” and has advocated for its potential to hedge against inflation and enhance financial independence.

She previously proposed a plan for the US to acquire a significant stake in the total Bitcoin supply through a 1-million-unit purchase program over a set period. “Establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve to bolster the U.S. dollar with a digital hard asset will secure our nation’s standing as the global financial leader for decades to come,” Lummis said at the time.

Advertisement

Her leadership could steer the subcommittee toward developing a more balanced regulatory framework, fostering innovation while ensuring market integrity.

Senator Tim Scott first hinted at the possibility of forming a crypto-focused subcommittee during the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium last August. “Wouldn’t it be kind of cool if we had a subcommittee on the Banking Committee… so that we bring more light to the conversation, more hearings on the industry, so that we get things done faster?” Scott remarked, highlighting his vision for streamlined legislative action.

This move comes as Scott replaces outgoing Chair Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who maintained a more critical stance on cryptocurrency. Brown frequently called for stricter oversight, citing concerns about crypto’s role in enabling illicit activities and circumventing sanctions. The change in leadership, coupled with the creation of a dedicated subcommittee, could lead to a friendlier regulatory environment for digital assets under the new administration.

Notably, the subcommittee will include other crypto-friendly lawmakers such as Senator Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) and newly elected Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), both vocal supporters of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Moreno, who defeated Brown in the November elections, has vowed to champion crypto-friendly policies in the Senate.

Crypto Regulators Depart Amid Policy Shifts

Advertisement

With the departures of key figures, the regulatory landscape for digital assets faces its most dramatic upheaval in years, just as a pro-crypto administration prepares to take office.

Continue Reading

Crypto

Man pleads guilty in failed ransom plot that may have been linked to $240M crypto heist

Published

on

Man pleads guilty in failed ransom plot that may have been linked to 0M crypto heist

HARTFORD, Conn. — A Florida man pleaded guilty Thursday in connection with the carjacking and kidnapping of a Connecticut couple, in what authorities called a failed ransom plot that may have been linked to a $240 million cryptocurrency heist.

Michael Rivas, 19, of Miami, was one of six men arrested after a series of events in Danbury on Aug. 25. He pleaded guilty to kidnapping and conspiracy charges in federal court in Hartford. Two others are expected to enter similar pleas in the same court on Friday.

The couple were driving in a new Lamborghini SUV when the suspects forced them out of the SUV, assaulted them, put them in a van and bound them, police said. Witnesses immediately alerted police. Four of the men were arrested after abandoning their vehicles including the van and fleeing on foot, while the other two were later taken into custody at a nearby home the group had rented through Airbnb, authorities said. The couple were injured but survived the ordeal.

Rivas, dressed in a tan prison uniform with his legs shackled during the hearing, apologized for his actions. He said it was a “dumb” decision to help one of his co-defendants carry out what he called a “vendetta.” He did not elaborate.

His lawyer, Brian Woolf, said Rivas accepted a co-defendant’s invitation to take part in the plot with the hope of getting a share of the ransom money, and he regrets that decision.

Advertisement

The plot was hatched because the suspects “believed the victims’ son had access to significant amounts of digital currency,” and they planned to demand a ransom from the son to be paid in digital currency,” according to a federal indictment.

Just a week earlier, at least two thieves had stolen $240 million worth of Bitcoin in an elaborate scam over the internet and by phone, and then went on an indulgent spending spree on cars, mansions, travel, jewelry and nights out at clubs, authorities said.

Publicly, federal prosecutors and agents have not definitively linked the kidnapping to the Bitcoin theft. Officials have declined to comment on possible connections between the two cases including how the six suspects knew the couple’s son had a large amount of digital currency.

But federal agents told Danbury police that the FBI was looking into whether the couple’s son was involved in the Bitcoin theft, Danbury Detective Sgt. Steven Castrovinci told The Associated Press. Neither Danbury police nor federal authorities have named the couple or their son.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Ross Weingarten declined to comment after Thursday’s court hearing.

Advertisement

In mid-September, federal prosecutors announced that the two men, Malone Lam, 20, and Jeandiel Serrano, 21, had been indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to launder monetary instruments in connection with the cryptocurrency theft.

Court documents say unnamed coconspirators were in on the scam with the two men. Their lawyers have not responded to requests for comment.

Prosecutors said in court documents that Lam, Serrano and the unnamed coconspirators posed as technical support staff for Google and a cryptocurrency exchange while contacting the victim of the theft with an offer to help him with a supposed security breach.

The victim, from Washington, D.C., believed them and gave them remote access to his computer on Aug. 18. That resulted in the alleged thieves making off with more than 4,100 Bitcoin, then valued at more than $240 million, prosecutors said. That amount of Bitcoin is now worth nearly $380 million.

According to prosecutors, Serrano, of Los Angeles, admitted during an interview with federal investigators that he used the stolen currency to buy three automobiles, worth more than $1 million in total, as well as a $500,000 watch. He also said he had about $20 million of the victim’s currency and agreed to transfer the funds to the FBI, authorities said.

Advertisement

Meanwhile Lam, a citizen of Singapore who had addresses in Los Angeles and Miami, Florida, was spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a night at Los Angeles night clubs and acquiring custom Lamborghinis, Ferraris and Porsches, prosecutors said. He also was renting two Miami mansions, bought a $2 million watch and had a Lamborghini Revuelto worth more than $1 million.

Federal prosecutors said in court documents that at least $100 million of the stolen funds remained missing.

Exactly a week after the crypto theft, the couple from Danbury, a city of more than 80,000 people along the New York border, were forced out of their SUV in their hometown after one of the carjackers’ vehicles rear-ended them and two other vehicles surrounded them. The group assaulted the man with a baseball bat and dragged the woman by her hair as they put them in the van, where the couple were bound with duct tape, police said.

“I’m deeply remorseful for my irresponsible behavior,” Rivas told U.S. District Judge Sarala Nagala on Thursday. “I should have known better.”

“This is not what my parents taught me growing up,” he added.

Advertisement

Rivas and the other five men also are facing kidnapping and assault charges in Connecticut state court. The other men are also from Florida.

Sentencing was set for May 13. The prosecution and defense agreed on sentencing guidelines that call for about 11 to 14 years in prison.

Continue Reading

Crypto

Bitcoin miner's claim to recover £600m in Newport tip thrown out

Published

on

Bitcoin miner's claim to recover £600m in Newport tip thrown out

During the hearing in December the court heard how Mr Howells had been an early adopter of Bitcoin and had successfully mined the cryptocurrency.

As the value of his missing digital wallet soared, Mr Howells organised a team of experts to attempt to locate, recover and access the hard drive.

He had repeatedly asked permission from the council for access to the site, and had offered it a share of the missing Bitcoin if it was successfully recovered.

Mr Howells successfully “mined” the Bitcoin in 2009 for almost nothing, and says he forgot about it altogether when he threw it out.

The value of the cryptocurrency rose by more than 80% in 2024.

Advertisement

But James Goudie KC, for the council, argued that existing laws meant the hard drive had become its property when it entered the landfill site. It also said that its environmental permits would forbid any attempt to excavate the site to search for the hard drive.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending