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Mint Explainer: What’s behind the surge in bitcoin prices

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Mint Explainer: What’s behind the surge in bitcoin prices

After rising by more than 150% in 2023, the price of bitcoin surpassed $45,000 on the second day of 2024, to its highest level since April 2022. Bitcoin is the world’s first cryptocurrency and the largest by market capitalisation. Many analysts and industry experts expect the rally to continue in the current calendar year, with some expecting bitcoin to rise to $100,000 in the coming months. (Although the price fell nearly 11% on Wednesday before bouncing back to $42,200, as per CoinDesk data. On Thursday morning in India, bitcoin was at about $43,100.)

Bitcoin last rose to its all-time high of $68,789 in November 2021 and then fell to a low of $15,760 in December 2022 amid the collapse of FTX, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, and fraud charges pressed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission against its CEO Samuel Bankman-Fried, fears of worsening macroeconomic conditions and rising interest rates. 

The latest rally was triggered by impending developments–the halving of bitcoin rewards and the potential approval for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the US. The US Federal Reserve signalling interest rate cuts in 2024 has also helped the rally. Mint explains the factors behind the recent rally.

What is halving of bitcoin rewards and how does it affect the price?

The creators of bitcoin designed the cryptocurrency with a cap of 21 million to limit its supply, which they felt would create a scarcity as demand rises and thus push up its value. So far, 19.6 million have already been mined, and 900 bitcoins are added per day currently. Crypto miners are rewarded 6.25 bitcoins at present for every block they create and a new block is produced approximately every 10 minutes. 

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The code written by the inventors of bitcoin requires the rewards per block to be halved every time 210,000 blocks are added–which usually happens every four years. This halving of rewards is expected to happen in April-May, and the number of bitcoins rewarded per block created will drop to 3.125. 

The number of bitcoins minted per block was 50 when it was created. The rewards were previously halved in 2020, and before that in 2012 and 2016. The final halving will happen around 2140, after which it will not be possible to halve the rewards. At that point, the number of bitcoins in circulation is expected to be about 21 million.

The halving of bitcoin rewards per block slows the increase in the supply of the cryptocurrency. As a result, bitcoin prices usually start to rise much before the halving event and usually soar after the halving takes place. 

For instance, in the 12 months following the last halving in 2020, bitcoin gained about 560%. Similarly, in the 12 months after the first halving in 2012, bitcoin jumped more than 8,000%. If the same trends persist, bitcoin may soar to the levels projected by various industry experts and analysts.

Why are investors looking forward to spot bitcoin ETF?

The US SEC has until 10 January to approve proposals of asset managers to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. There are over a dozen applications before the markets regulator. It is widely anticipated that the SEC will approve the ETF proposals much before the deadline (it may come this week), even though it has not given any indications whether it will indeed approve the applications.  

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A regulated product like an ETF could encourage a lot more people and institutions to invest in bitcoins. Some estimate that about $3 billion may flow into the ETF products in the US on the first day. 

Among those that have filed applications to launch ETFs based on the spot prices of bitcoin are Ark Investment, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, Invesco and Fidelity. 

Unlike the bitcoin futures ETF, which involves investment in futures contracts, spot ETFs invest in the cryptocurrency directly. Investors in the US can currently invest in bitcoin futures ETF, which were first launched in October 2021. Most of the asset managers who have sought SEC approval for spot bitcoin ETFs already run bitcoin futures ETFs.

Can the easing of interest rates also boost bitcoins?

Rising interest rates affected cryptocurrencies like all other asset classes that are risky. When the Fed held rates steady at its December meeting, cryptocurrencies gained. 

More significantly, investors have been increasing their exposure to cryptos after a rough 2022, when stablecoins Terra and Luna crashed and the FTX scam came to light. With the Fed signalling that rate cuts may begin sometime in 2024, investors will be willing to increase their investment in risky assets such as cryptos.

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While there is a lot of optimism around bitcoin at this point, another FTX-like bankruptcy or a scam can cause the cryptocurrency market to crash like it did in 2022. Most of these catch investors unaware, leading to deep losses.

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Bitcoin Falls Below $63K, Recovers Swiftly To $64K: What Is Going On?

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Bitcoin Falls Below $63K, Recovers Swiftly To $64K: What Is Going On?

Following a massive transfer of Bitcoin BTC/USD by the defunct exchange Mt. Gox, the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly fell under $63,000 in Tuesday’s Asian trading session but has since rallied into the New York open.

What Happened: According to CoinDesk, an initial transfer of 0.021 BTC ($1,000) to a blockchain address was followed by a significant movement of 44,527 BTC ($2.84 billion) to an internal wallet. This activity, tracked by Arkham Intelligence, is likely connected to Mt. Gox’s repayment plan. Crypto exchange Kraken has confirmed receiving funds and plans to distribute them over the next two weeks.

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Mt. Gox, once the largest bitcoin exchange, collapsed in 2014 after losing a substantial amount of bitcoin in a hack. The exchange started repaying its debt on July 4, raising concerns about potential mass selling by creditors.

See Also: Odds Of Trump Presidency Raised To All-Time High By Crypto Bettors After Assassination Bid

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Why It Matters: The volatile price action comes after Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, predicted that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 this year, driven by the formation of a pro-crypto Republican presidential ticket featuring Donald Trump and J.D. Vance.

However, analysts have cautioned that Bitcoin’s recent rallies may be short-lived. According to Bitfinex analysts, while Bitcoin breached the $64,000 level for the first time in over three weeks, the positive momentum might not sustain. They advised closely monitoring the situation before drawing any firm conclusions.

Bitcoin’s rebound has garnered attention from notable figures in the tech industry. Michael Dell, founder of Dell Technologies Inc. DELL, recently called Bitcoin “fascinating” in response to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink‘s bullish stance on the cryptocurrency. Dell’s comments echo growing interest and recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate financial instrument among influential tech leaders.

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This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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Image: Shutterstock

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Donald Trump’s Cryptocurrency Critique is Shaping the Future of Trade

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Donald Trump’s Cryptocurrency Critique is Shaping the Future of Trade

Cryptocurrency has become a pivotal topic in global financial discourse, with diverse opinions shaping its development and adoption. Among these influential voices is Donald Trump, the former President of the United States. Trump’s perspective on cryptocurrency, characterized by skepticism and caution, continues to shape policies and market sentiment in the US and globally. This article delves into how Trump’s views influence the future of cryptocurrency.

Donald Trump’s Stance on Cryptocurrency

Donald Trump’s stance on cryptocurrency is unequivocally critical. He has consistently expressed concerns about the stability, security, and legitimacy of digital currencies. His famous 2019 tweet stated, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Trump’s skepticism extends to broader issues of financial security and the potential for misuse in illegal activities.

Regulatory Landscape Under Trump’s Administration

Stricter Oversight

During Trump’s presidency, regulatory bodies such as the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intensified their oversight of cryptocurrency activities. The administration’s focus was on preventing fraudulent activities, money laundering, and protecting investors from high-risk investments.

Impact on Innovation

While increased regulation aimed to safeguard the financial system, it also posed challenges for innovation within the cryptocurrency space. The regulatory environment under Trump’s administration led to significant compliance costs and operational hurdles for crypto businesses. This cautious approach slowed down the pace of innovation and made the US a less attractive destination for crypto startups.

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Global Ripple Effects

Influence on International Policies

Trump’s critical stance on cryptocurrency influenced global regulatory approaches. Countries aligned with the US in financial policies, such as Canada and parts of Europe, adopted a more cautious regulatory stance. This created a global atmosphere of skepticism and wariness towards digital currencies, impacting their adoption and integration into mainstream financial systems.

Market Reactions

Trump’s comments and policies often led to volatility in the global cryptocurrency market. Statements from influential figures like Trump can trigger significant market movements, reflecting investor sentiment and confidence. Trump’s critical views contributed to periods of heightened volatility, affecting prices and market stability.

Post-Presidency Influence

Continued Criticism

Even after leaving office, Trump continues to voice his skepticism about cryptocurrencies. His ongoing criticism reinforces a narrative of caution and doubt within conservative and traditional financial circles. This persistent viewpoint maintains a level of apprehension about digital currencies, influencing both public opinion and policy discussions.

Political and Financial Impact

Trump’s influence extends to political and financial sectors where his opinions shape discussions on regulatory frameworks. His views contribute to the broader debate on how to balance innovation with security in the cryptocurrency domain. Policymakers and regulators consider such perspectives when designing regulations that aim to protect the financial system without stifling technological advancements.

The Future of Cryptocurrency Regulation

Potential for Balanced Regulations

While Trump’s critical stance highlights the need for stringent oversight, it also underscores the importance of balanced regulations. Future regulatory frameworks may seek to address the concerns raised by Trump, such as security and stability, while also fostering innovation and growth in the cryptocurrency industry.

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Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

Trump’s skepticism towards decentralized cryptocurrencies may accelerate the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Governments worldwide are exploring CBDCs as a way to leverage blockchain technology within a regulated and controlled framework. The development of CBDCs could provide a middle ground, addressing concerns about stability and misuse while promoting digital currency adoption.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s perspective on cryptocurrency continues to wield significant influence over the future of digital currencies in the US and globally. His critical stance has shaped regulatory approaches, market sentiment, and policy discussions. As the cryptocurrency landscape evolves, the balance between regulation and innovation will be crucial in determining its trajectory. Understanding Trump’s influence helps in navigating the complex interplay between skepticism and adoption in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency.

 

Note: By examining Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency perspective, this article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of its impact on the future of digital currencies. It offers insights for investors, policymakers, and enthusiasts, highlighting the critical issues shaping the global cryptocurrency landscape. However, this is the author’s personal observation and can be disagreed or challenged by anyone.

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Greece Grapples With Cryptocurrency Tax Gap As Adoption Rises

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Greece Grapples With Cryptocurrency Tax Gap As Adoption Rises
Greece is experiencing a surge in cryptocurrency adoption, particularly among young adults. However, the lack of a clear regulatory and tax framework for digital assets is causing headaches for both investors and tax authorities. A dedicated committee is finalizing its recommendations for the Ministry of National Economy and Finance, outlining solutions for defining, recording, taxing, and monitoring cryptocurrencies.
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