Crypto
Mint Explainer: What’s behind the surge in bitcoin prices
After rising by more than 150% in 2023, the price of bitcoin surpassed $45,000 on the second day of 2024, to its highest level since April 2022. Bitcoin is the world’s first cryptocurrency and the largest by market capitalisation. Many analysts and industry experts expect the rally to continue in the current calendar year, with some expecting bitcoin to rise to $100,000 in the coming months. (Although the price fell nearly 11% on Wednesday before bouncing back to $42,200, as per CoinDesk data. On Thursday morning in India, bitcoin was at about $43,100.)
Bitcoin last rose to its all-time high of $68,789 in November 2021 and then fell to a low of $15,760 in December 2022 amid the collapse of FTX, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, and fraud charges pressed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission against its CEO Samuel Bankman-Fried, fears of worsening macroeconomic conditions and rising interest rates.
The latest rally was triggered by impending developments–the halving of bitcoin rewards and the potential approval for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the US. The US Federal Reserve signalling interest rate cuts in 2024 has also helped the rally. Mint explains the factors behind the recent rally.
What is halving of bitcoin rewards and how does it affect the price?
The creators of bitcoin designed the cryptocurrency with a cap of 21 million to limit its supply, which they felt would create a scarcity as demand rises and thus push up its value. So far, 19.6 million have already been mined, and 900 bitcoins are added per day currently. Crypto miners are rewarded 6.25 bitcoins at present for every block they create and a new block is produced approximately every 10 minutes.
The code written by the inventors of bitcoin requires the rewards per block to be halved every time 210,000 blocks are added–which usually happens every four years. This halving of rewards is expected to happen in April-May, and the number of bitcoins rewarded per block created will drop to 3.125.
The number of bitcoins minted per block was 50 when it was created. The rewards were previously halved in 2020, and before that in 2012 and 2016. The final halving will happen around 2140, after which it will not be possible to halve the rewards. At that point, the number of bitcoins in circulation is expected to be about 21 million.
The halving of bitcoin rewards per block slows the increase in the supply of the cryptocurrency. As a result, bitcoin prices usually start to rise much before the halving event and usually soar after the halving takes place.
For instance, in the 12 months following the last halving in 2020, bitcoin gained about 560%. Similarly, in the 12 months after the first halving in 2012, bitcoin jumped more than 8,000%. If the same trends persist, bitcoin may soar to the levels projected by various industry experts and analysts.
Why are investors looking forward to spot bitcoin ETF?
The US SEC has until 10 January to approve proposals of asset managers to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. There are over a dozen applications before the markets regulator. It is widely anticipated that the SEC will approve the ETF proposals much before the deadline (it may come this week), even though it has not given any indications whether it will indeed approve the applications.
A regulated product like an ETF could encourage a lot more people and institutions to invest in bitcoins. Some estimate that about $3 billion may flow into the ETF products in the US on the first day.
Among those that have filed applications to launch ETFs based on the spot prices of bitcoin are Ark Investment, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, Invesco and Fidelity.
Unlike the bitcoin futures ETF, which involves investment in futures contracts, spot ETFs invest in the cryptocurrency directly. Investors in the US can currently invest in bitcoin futures ETF, which were first launched in October 2021. Most of the asset managers who have sought SEC approval for spot bitcoin ETFs already run bitcoin futures ETFs.
Can the easing of interest rates also boost bitcoins?
Rising interest rates affected cryptocurrencies like all other asset classes that are risky. When the Fed held rates steady at its December meeting, cryptocurrencies gained.
More significantly, investors have been increasing their exposure to cryptos after a rough 2022, when stablecoins Terra and Luna crashed and the FTX scam came to light. With the Fed signalling that rate cuts may begin sometime in 2024, investors will be willing to increase their investment in risky assets such as cryptos.
While there is a lot of optimism around bitcoin at this point, another FTX-like bankruptcy or a scam can cause the cryptocurrency market to crash like it did in 2022. Most of these catch investors unaware, leading to deep losses.
Crypto
Russian Companies Reportedly Using Crypto for International Payments | PYMNTS.com
Russian businesses are reportedly using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to make international payments.
It’s a trend that comes in the wake of legislative changes that permitted these types of payments to get around western sanctions, Reuters reported Tuesday (Dec. 26), citing comments from Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
As the report noted, the sanctions — issued following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — have made it tougher for Russia to trade with partners like China and Turkey. But this year, Russia began allowing crypto for foreign trades, and is working on legalizing the mining of crypto such as bitcoin.
“As part of the experimental regime, it is possible to use bitcoins, which we had mined here in Russia (in foreign trade transactions),” Siluanov told Russia 24 television channel.
“Such transactions are already occurring. We believe they should be expanded and developed further. I am confident this will happen next year,” he said, adding that using digital currencies to make international payments represent the future.
PYMNTS explored this idea earlier this week in a report on events in the cryptocurrency/blockchain world in the past year.
“Cross-border payments, historically plagued by high fees and slow transaction times, underwent a significant transformation in 2024,” that report said. “Blockchain technology emerged as a key enabler, offering transparency, speed and cost efficiency.”
Stablecoins play a key role, PYMNTS added, letting businesses bypass traditional correspondent banking networks and settle transactions almost instantly.
“Blockchain technology and public blockchains in particular, are opening up a number of new use cases, one of which is to transfer value — such as remittances — from one country to another,” Raj Dhamodharan, executive vice president, blockchain and digital assets at Mastercard, told PYMNTS.
Research by PYMNTS Intelligence has found that cryptocurrency use in making cross-border payments could be the winning use case that the sector has been searching for. The research shows that blockchain-based cross-border solutions, especially stablecoins, are being increasingly used by firms looking for better ways to transact and expand internationally.
“Blockchain solutions and stablecoins — I don’t like to use the term crypto because this is more about FinTech — they’ve found product-market fit in cross-border payments,” Sheraz Shere, general manager of payments and commerce at Solana Foundation, said in an interview here earlier this year. “You get the disintermediation, you get the speed, you get the transparency, you get extremely low cost.”
Crypto
Markets Show Resilience Ahead of End-of-Year Options Expirations: Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Report
DUBAI, UAE, Dec. 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, released the latest Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report in collaboration with Block Scholes, highlighting the muted market volatility despite major options expirations on Friday. BTC and ETH’s realized volatility has increased, but short-term options haven’t adjusted to this change. This indicates that while spot prices are fluctuating, the options market is not fully reacting to these shifts, although BTC and ETH volumes have displayed slightly different patterns.
With more than $525 million in BTC and ETH options contracts expiring on Dec 27, 2024’s end-of-year options expiration looks set to be one of the biggest yet, yet expectations for volatility have remained subdued. The report highlights an unusual inversion in ETH’s volatility structure, but BTC has not mirrored the reaction. Additionally, a change in funding rates—sometimes turning negative as spot prices drop—signals a new market phase. Notably, BTC’s volatility structure has been less responsive to changes in spot prices, whereas ETH’s short-term options are exhibiting more noticeable fluctuations.
Key Findings:
BTC Options Expirations:
In the past month, BTC’s realized volatility has been higher than implied volatility on three occasions, each time reaching a relatively calm equilibrium. Open interest in BTC options remains high, contributing to potential increased volatility as we near the end of the year. Around $360 million worth of BTC options (both puts and calls) are set to expire soon, which can affect price movement.
ETH Options: Calls Dominate
Despite a mid-week inversion, ETH’s volatility term structure has flattened, maintaining levels similar to those seen over the past month. In the final week of 2024, calls overwhelmed puts in open interest in ETH options, although market movements and trading activities are more on the put side.
Access the Full Report:
Gain deeper insights and explore the potential impacts on your crypto trading strategies by downloading the full report here: Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Dec 24, 2024)
#Bybit / #BybitResearch
About Bybit
Bybit is the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 60 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.
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Crypto
WSJ “Trump's Emphasis on Cryptocurrency and AI Highlights Need for Renewable Energy”
There is a prospect that the renewable energy industry could be revitalized due to President-elect Donald Trump’s proactive stance on cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence (AI).
On the 25th (local time), the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) highlighted the power consumption involved in AI and cryptocurrency mining businesses, predicting a need for more power sources. Senator Kevin Cramer told the Wall Street Journal, “We don’t have enough electricity for servers used in AI or cryptocurrency,” emphasizing the need for as much energy as possible, including not only fossil fuels but also renewable energy.
President-elect Trump has so far taken a negative stance on the ‘climate crisis’ and its solution, renewable energy, but it is explained that this position could change. The media noted, “Trump has previously criticized electric vehicles, but he shifted his stance after getting closer to Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla. Trump’s stance on renewable energy could also be relaxed.”
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