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Governments and banks once mocked Bitcoin. Now they want in on it

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Governments and banks once mocked Bitcoin. Now they want in on it

Bitcoin has proven to be one of the best-performing assets in modern history.

The value of the cryptocurrency has increased some 1,000 times over the past decade, far outpacing US stocks and real estate.

Buoyed by United States President-elect Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, Bitcoin’s record rally hit a new high of $107,000 on Monday after the Republican reiterated his intention to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

Bitcoin, the first decentralised digital currency, was invented by the pseudonymous figure Satoshi Nakamoto in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

Nakamoto introduced the blockchain system – a digital ledger that stores transactions in a network of computers – to enable anyone to make financial transactions without the involvement of banks, financial firms or governments.

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Once widely derided as a speculative asset with no intrinsic value, Bitcoin is being taken increasingly seriously by governments, financial institutions and investors alike.

Boaz Sobrado, a London-based fintech analyst, said Bitcoin has transformed from being a niche asset favoured by political dissidents and criminals carrying out Illicit transactions “to something that central banks have to keep in mind and consider”.

“The IMF has put very firm anti-crypto political guidelines into place when negotiating with countries that might require its own assistance. It’s gone from being an academic question to a practical, real one and one that central banks are taking very seriously now,” Sobrado told Al Jazeera.

Bitcoin’s record rally hit a new high of $107,000 this month [Nicolas Tucat/AFP]

In January, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), allowing investors to have exposure to the asset on the stock exchange for the first time.

In an October report, the US Department of the Treasury referred to Bitcoin as “digital gold”, noting its use as a store of value.

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A number of countries have made big bets on the cryptocurrency.

El Salvador has accumulated some $600m worth of Bitcoin reserves and is one of just a handful of countries, along with the Central African Republic, that accepts the asset as legal tender.

Other countries, including the US and the United Kingdom, have acquired large holdings of Bitcoin through the seizure of assets implicated in criminal activity.

The US has seized at least 215,000 Bitcoins, valued at almost $21bn at current prices, since 2020, according to an analysis by crypto firm 21.co.

With Trump returning to the White House, Bitcoin supporters are hopeful that cryptocurrencies will gain unprecedented legitimacy after years of government-led crackdowns on the sector.

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Despite once labelling Bitcoin “a scam”, Trump has emerged as arguably the world’s most powerful advocate for the asset.

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 27: Former President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures while giving a keynote speech on the third day of the Bitcoin 2024 conference at Music City Center July 27, 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. The conference, which is aimed at bitcoin enthusiasts, features multiple vendor and entertainment spaces and seminars by celebrities and politicians. Jon Cherry/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Jon Cherry / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
Donald Trump gives a keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee [File: Jon Cherry/Getty Images/AFP]

After pledging to make the US “crypto capital of the planet”, he has picked several high-profile crypto enthusiasts to join his incoming administration, including former PayPal Chief Operating Officer David Sacks as crypto tsar and Paul Atkins as SEC chair.

Trump’s pro-crypto stance has found allies in the US Congress, such as Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming, who earlier this year introduced the BITCOIN Act of 2024, which would include Bitcoin among reserve assets such as gold and oil as a long-term store of value.

Under Lummis’s plans, the government would buy roughly 200,000 Bitcoins every year for five years, and then hold the assets for 20 years as a hedge against inflation.

“If we did that with five percent of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist – which is roughly a million Bitcoin – we could cut our debt in half in 20 years,” Lummis said in a television interview with Fox Business.

On Wall Street, derision and mockery have also given way to more positive appraisals.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who once described Bitcoin as an “index of money laundering”, in January said the commodity was “no different than what gold represented for thousands of years” and an “asset class that protects you”.

‘Currency of resistance’

The key attribute of Bitcoin that makes it revolutionary is that it separates money from the state, according to Max Keiser, senior Bitcoin adviser to El Salvador President Nayib Bukele.

“This is the first time in history that this has ever happened – money exists that has no central authority controlling it. This is what makes it unique, very powerful,” Keiser told Al Jazeera.

“There’s now this growing feeling that the 21st century will be the century of Bitcoin.”

Keiser spotted Bitcoin’s potential early on and advised people to buy it when its value was only $1 in 2011. That year, he and his wife, television presenter Stacy Herbert, called Bitcoin “the currency of resistance”, and predicted it would top $100,000.

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One of the reasons Bitcoin has gained strength in value is the poor performance of economies such as Argentina, where inflation last year skyrocketed more than 200 percent, according to Gerald Celente, founder and director of the New York-based Trends Research Institute.

“People were seeing their currencies being devalued… People were saying: ‘I’m losing all my money, what am I going to do?’ They can’t afford to buy gold, so they started buying whatever they could in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, so that kept it strong,” Celente told Al Jazeera.

Since Trump’s election, Bitcoin’s price has risen by more than 50 percent and with an incoming pro-crypto administration, Celente predicts an even greater rally.

“[The value] could go through the roof, but we don’t see [Bitcoin] going down much at all,” he said.

Crypto supporters argue that Bitcoin’s winning advantage is that its global supply is capped at 21 million.

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Unlike central banks that can print money indefinitely, Bitcoin’s supply stays constant no matter the demand, which has helped boost its value against the dollar.

Armando Pantoja, futurist and tech investor, believes that Bitcoin will appreciate in value “forever”, likening the purchase of the asset to buying real estate in Manhattan.

“Bitcoin has value not because of the currency, but because of the technology that governs it, blockchain technology,” Pantoja told Al Jazeera.

“In Bitcoin’s blockchain, there’s a certain supply of Bitcoin that comes out every 10 minutes, and every four years they cut it in half. Over time there is less and less Bitcoin being generated.

“Once it reaches the limit, no more can be created… That’s why it’s going to keep going up, every four years when they cut the supply, it has to respond positively. It has to keep going up to supply the demand.”

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MIAMI, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 16: The robo-crypto bull statue is seen on the campus of the Miami Dade College Wolfson campus on December 16, 2024 in Miami, Florida. Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high, reaching $107,000 in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week. Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by JOE RAEDLE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)
The robo-crypto bull statue is seen on the campus of the Miami Dade College, Wolfson Campus, in Miami, Florida [Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP]

Keiser predicts Bitcoin will reach $1m in value in the coming years, with a market cap at least equal to gold’s market cap of $20 trillion.

“That would be $1m a coin. I think that would be a conservative estimate for the price for the next three to four years,” he said.

Bitcoin’s stellar rise, however, has not convinced everyone.

Despite its recent rally, the commodity continues to be extremely volatile.

After hitting $107,000 at the start of the week, the asset had by Friday plunged below $97,000.

Many financial analysts continue to view Bitcoin as a bubble with little to support its stunning rise.

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“The more resources Americans misallocate to #Bitcoin and #crypto-related businesses, the fewer resources will be available to devote to making stuff we actually need,” Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Capital, said in a post on X last month.

“The end result will be larger trade deficits, a weaker dollar, higher inflation, and a lower standard of living.”

Even as Trump’s positive stance towards Bitcoin has thrilled crypto enthusiasts, some pro-crypto governments have reined in their support of the sector.

El Salvador announced this week that it would privatize or close its cryptocurrency wallet “Chivo” as part of the terms of a $1.4bn loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Bukele’s government also agreed to make acceptance of Bitcoin by businesses voluntary, within steps to assuage the IMF’s concerns about Bitcoin-related risks.

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Central bank digital currencies

Some crypto supporters see governments and central banks taking a leading role in the global march towards digitised money with the development of their own currencies.

Celente of the Trends Research Institute said the US, for example, could create its own digital currency as a way to pay off its federal debt.

“There’s no way the US can pay off their $36 trillion worth of government debt. They may come up with a new cryptocurrency as part of CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currency),” Celente said.

“You’re seeing more and more of the central banks talking about CBDCs, they’re definitely going to go into that direction,” Celente added.

“They’re going to use this as an excuse to come up with a coin because they cannot pay off the debt that they have now. They’re going to say, ‘This [digital currency] is worth a lot more than the dollar, yuan, the euro,’ and use that to pay off their debt.”

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Some observers have warned that the introduction of CBDCs would open a Pandora’s box of problems related to government control and surveillance of people’s finances.

Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, which manages the stockpile of US Treasuries that back Tether, the largest stablecoin by market cap.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged to a traditional commodity or currency to maintain a stable price. They have reached record volumes of more than $200bn in total market cap.

Sobrado said there could be an opening for Tether to become the national de facto privatised CBDC for the US, and for smaller economies such as the UAE, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland to issue their own CBDCs.

“The pro-crypto voices and Fed-critical voices have never been louder in the White House,” Sobrado said.

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Celente said he had no doubt that the future of money is digital.

“There’s no question at all,” he affirmed.

Crypto

HSBC Says Lasting Iran Conflict Would Boost Oil, Gold, USD and Hurt Equities

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HSBC Says Lasting Iran Conflict Would Boost Oil, Gold, USD and Hurt Equities
Rising Iran conflict risks are jolting global markets, with HSBC warning oil shocks, currency swings, and equity volatility hinge on whether supply routes and production are disrupted, shaping inflation expectations and investor risk appetite worldwide. HSBC: Long-Running Conflict Would Reshape FX, Rates, and Equity Leadership Escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global market outlook. Global […]
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Crypto Sector Suffers Exodus of Reliable Retail Investors | PYMNTS.com

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Crypto Sector Suffers Exodus of Reliable Retail Investors | PYMNTS.com

Retail investors are reportedly leaving the cryptocurrency sector, robbing the industry of a dependable driver.

That’s according to a report Sunday (March 1) from Bloomberg News, which says the speculative demand that once centered around crypto has shifted into stocks.

Since late 2024, retail investors have steadily shifted toward equities, a trend that sped up following the crypto crash last October, the report said, citing a new report from market-maker Wintermute which itself drew from JPMorgan Chase data.

Bloomberg characterizes the shift as striking at something key to the crypto’s market structure, which has long relied on investor mood as a key demand driver. If that demand is moving to other trades, it goes against the belief that digital assets can recover without something to draw back retail investors.

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“In prior cycles, excess retail risk appetite tended to concentrate in crypto,” said Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of Wintermute, who added that crypto is now “one of many risky-asset classes with similar volatility profile that retail can use to invest and speculate on.”

More than $19 billion in positions were wiped out in October — $7 billion of them in less than an hour — liquidating more than 1.6 million traders, the report added.

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Since then, there’s been “a near-complete pivot into equities that is still ongoing,” the Wintermute said. Bitcoin has fallen from its record high of around $126,000 down to $66,000 amid reports of American and Israeli strikes against Iran, the report added.

In other digital assets news, PYMNTS wrote last week about the significance of Morgan Stanley’s application before the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a charter for a digital asset-focused national trust bank.

As that report said, a trust bank, as opposed to a traditional commercial bank, does not offer loans or deposits, but rather focuses on custody, fiduciary services and asset administration, basically acting as a highly regulated vault/legal steward. This structure, PYMNTS added, could be ideally suited to digital assets.

“The trust bank charter offers a solution,” the report added. “It allows a firm to handle digital assets under the supervision of the OCC while avoiding the capital and liquidity requirements associated with deposit-taking institutions. In regulatory terms, it is a bridge. In strategic terms, it could be an on-ramp for traditional finance to take over functions once dominated by crypto-native firms.”

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

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The Last Frontier For Cryptocurrency Adoption

While studies reveal institutional investors and wealth managers believe tokenized ETFs will drive mainstream market adoption for cryptocurrency, there looms the theft of bad actors that most often go untraceable.

Barriers to the expansion of tokenization are starting to fall as major investment firms consider launching tokenized ETFs, according to new global research by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s leading digital assets hedge fund manager founded by alumni of Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.

Its study with institutional investors (pension funds, insurance asset managers and family offices) and wealth managers at organisations which collectively manage over $14 trillion in assets found almost all (97%) believe the potential launch of tokenized ETFs such as BlackRock’s will be important to the expansion of the sector with nearly one in three (32%) rating the development as very important.

The study also reflected the belief that tokenization will continue to grow, with nearly 70% of respondents believing that fund managers looking to tokenize investment funds and asset classes will increase over the next three years.

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Nickel’s research with firms in the US, UK, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates found growing awareness of the benefits of tokenization. Private markets are seen as offering the greatest potential for tokenization, with almost 70% seeing private equity funds as the asset class with the most opportunity, followed by fixed income (55%) and public equities (42%).

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and Founding Partner at Nickel Digital, said: “Tokenization is quickly moving from theory to real-world adoption as institutional investors grow more comfortable with its benefits and see major players enter the space. When firms like BlackRock step in, it fundamentally shifts the conversation. This development is timely for our multi-manager vehicle as expanding liquidity depth will allow some of our pods to start trading tokenized assets in the coming months.”

To address potential criminal threat, an advanced detection system to identify and trace blockchain funds connected with criminal activity was presented earlier this week at the Annual CyberASAP Demo Day in London.

The system, called SynapTrack, enables faster and more accurate detection of fraudulent activity using blockchains and cryptocurrencies, where traditional anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing systems struggle to keep pace.

Although current fraud detection methods pick up unusual activity, they deliver an extremely high rate (40%) of false positive reports. These require manual checking by compliance professionals, resulting in backlogs in identifying and acting on suspicious activity.

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The SynapTrack system is designed to deliver a substantially lower rate of false positives. It has already been tested using real-life data from the notorious 2025 Bybit hack, where criminals stole $1.5bn of digital tokens from a cryptocurrency exchange. SynapTrack traced the hacker with 98% accuracy.

The team behind SynapTrack is keen to hear from exchanges, financial regulators or law enforcement agencies who want to test the prototype in real-world conditions.

SynapTrack uses a validated methodology to score the likelihood of transactions being part of a money laundering scheme. It has a self-improving algorithm that continuously adapts to new tactics – dynamically identifying suspicious patterns in blockchain transactions. It has a universal cross-chain capability, and is designed around how compliance teams work, presenting results in a dashboard. No infrastructure changes are needed for installation.

It is relatively easy to obscure fraudulent or criminal activity by moving funds between blockchains, or dispersing them across many blockchains, in what are known as ‘cross-chain’ transactions. It is these transactions that pose the greatest difficulty for existing anti-money laundering systems.

SynapTrack was developed by University of Birmingham computer scientists Dr Pascal Berrang and PhD student Endong Liu, in collaboration with blockchain developer Nimiq. Dr Berrang’s research is in IT security and privacy on blockchain, artificial intelligence and machine learning. The subject of Endong Liu’s PhD is transaction tracing. Nimiq is supporting with blockchain-specific insights, knowledge of real-world constraints, and implementation.

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The team is currently fundraising to ensure regulatory readiness and complete the team with a CEO and software developers.

Dr Berrang said: “The last few years have seen a near-exponential growth in blockchain transactions. While many of these are legitimate, blockchains are attractive to criminals as funds can be moved very quickly to other jurisdictions. Our work with Nimiq and the creation of SynapTrack is addressing this black spot, and will enable more effective regulation, making the whole ecosystem of blockchain safer and more trustworthy.”

With the financial market and cybersecurity industry converging, cryptocurrency is here to stay.

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