AUSTIN (Texas Tribune) — Texas communities will need to spend $174 billion in the next 50 years to avert a severe water crisis, a new state analysis revealed Thursday. That’s more than double the $80 billion projected four years ago, when the Texas Water Development Board last passed a state water plan.

The three-member board presiding over the agency authorized the highly anticipated draft blueprint Thursday, the first administrative step toward adopting the water development board’s plans for the next 50 years. The plan, released every five years, encompasses the projects that 16 regional water planning groups in Texas said are the most urgent, water development board officials said. 

The board’s latest estimates come as the state’s water supply faces numerous threats. Growing communities across Texas are scrambling to secure water, keep up with construction costs and cope with a yearslong drought. This week, Corpus Christi officials said the city may be just months away from declaring a water emergency. Meanwhile, other rural cities by the Coastal Bend are rapidly drilling wells to avoid a crisis. Residents in North Texas have also been bracing for groundwater shortages.

In an effort to restrain the crisis, lawmakers last year called an election in which voters approved a $20 billion boost for communities to use on water-related expenses. The water development board’s estimate shows that what lawmakers proposed on the ballot falls dramatically short of the needed cash, experts said.

“What this number tells me at the end of the day is if we don’t get serious about (funding water projects), there are going to be serious consequences for Texas,” said Perry Fowler, executive director of the Texas Water Infrastructure Network. “Even with the billion-dollar-a-year plan kicking in, it’s not going to be enough to offset the costs of the projects that are going to have to be executed.”

The new estimate accounts for 3,000 projects, from regional infrastructure upgrades to smaller endeavors such as drilling new water wells. Texas’ water supplies are expected to drop by roughly 10% between 2030 and 2080, according to the water plan. In that same time frame, the maximum amount of water communities can draw is also expected to decline by 9%.

The 80-page plan notes approximately 6,700 recommended strategies that would add water to the state’s dwindling portfolio. The recommendations — which are not accounted for in the cost — include developing new supplies from aquifer storage and recovery, brackish groundwater, desalination and recycled water. It also calls for water conservation.

The report suggested that if Texas does not implement the plans and recommendations, the state is one severe drought away from an estimated $91 billion in economic damages in 2030.

The state’s plan attributes a variety of reasons for the bigger price tag, such as higher costs of construction due to inflation, impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains, and a growing backlog of water supply projects.

“There’s a plan that can meet our needs,” said Matt Nelson, deputy executive administrator for the Office of Planning at the water development board, adding that they take their cues from the regional planning groups. “These are local projects that folks need to implement; they’re needed regardless of how they’re funded. It’s important to remember these are not top-down projects or state projects.”

Experts told The Texas Tribune that the board’s estimate is only a fraction of what Texas communities will need to ensure they have water in 50 years’ time, saying growth and development are outpacing the state’s ability to keep up.

“This is a bigger water plan in terms of volume strategies and capital costs compared to anything we’ve ever seen before,” said Jeremy Mazur, the director of infrastructure and natural resources policy at think tank Texas 2036.

Mazur suggested that the $174 billion only covers water supply projects and does not account for updating aging infrastructure, adding that the actual price could amount to a quarter of a trillion dollars.

“There’s a substantial magnitude with regard to the capital investment needed to both fix our aging and current systems and potentially develop the water infrastructure, water supply projects that we need.“

The report largely confirmed what many water experts have warned regarding threats to the state’s water supply, said Sarah Kirkle, director of policy at the Texas Water Association.

“Population growth, extreme weather, and economic development needs are all increasing demands on our infrastructure, and the state is going to need more water, sooner,” Kirkle said. “This is all while water projects are becoming more costly and complex because the easiest and cheapest local projects have already been developed.”

Fowler, with the infrastructure network, said he expects the Texas Legislature to take up the issue next year, when lawmakers meet for the 90th legislative session. He said the state should take a bigger role in ensuring that communities can afford their respective water projects.

“It’s going to have to be a top-down priority, there’s no way around it,” he said. “The challenges are so immense that it’s going to take all hands on deck.”

Texas residents have until the end of May to comment on the proposal. Water development board officials must adopt it by January 2027.

Alejandra Martinez contributed to this story.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at www.texastribune.org. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans – and engages with them – about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.