It hasn’t been an enjoyable time if you have money tied up in cryptocurrencies. After the market’s valuation peaked at $4.4 trillion in October, we’ve witnessed a downward spiral that has resulted in that figure plummeting to $2.6 trillion today (as of April 17).

On the other hand, the S&P 500 index climbed 5% during the same time. It’s completely understandable if people want to forget about digital assets. They aren’t the easiest to hold; it’s hard to handle the volatility.

However, a monster opportunity is staring investors in the face. Here’s the cryptocurrency to buy right now, especially since it trades under $80,000.

It usually doesn’t end well for fiat currencies

It’s time to shine the spotlight on Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC), the world’s first and most valuable cryptocurrency, with a market cap of $1.5 trillion. Bitcoin is a decentralized monetary network that was built to allow anyone in the world to transfer value to anyone else anywhere in the world without the use of an intermediary. It was a technological breakthrough at the time. And it still is today.

To understand the enormous importance of a completely novel monetary network to emerge, one that’s digital, immutable, and not controlled by anyone, it requires looking at the past. Fiat currencies, like the U.S. dollar, have a troubled history.

Since President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of U.S. dollars to gold in 1971, the world economy has operated on government-backed, or fiat, currencies. The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency.

But the track record is impossible to ignore. Fiat currencies often end in collapse. Before the U.S. dollar’s current reign, it was the British Pound sterling. Over time, inflation decreases purchasing power, sometimes rapidly.

Is the writing on the wall for the U.S. dollar? Persistent fiscal deficits in the U.S., an ever-expanding debt burden that’s nearing $40 trillion, loss of public confidence and trust, and political instability are all clear signs that cracks in the system are forming.

While unsustainable things can go on for much longer than people anticipate, perhaps it’s only a matter of time before the U.S. dollar’s dominance comes to an end. And Bitcoin appears well-positioned to be a winner from this development.

The history lesson naturally leads to Bitcoin

After gaining more knowledge about the history of fiat currencies, investors will figure out the best ways to allocate capital to maintain and grow their purchasing power over the next decade. High-quality stocks, particularly in businesses that possess pricing power, present one idea. Real estate and commodities are also interesting if you have expertise in these areas.

Gold also comes to mind. It might not be a coincidence that the precious metal’s price doubled in the past two years. Those in charge of large pools of capital might be considering some of the variables that I just discussed, leading them to direct money toward an asset that has been viewed as a top store of value for millennia.

I believe, however, that Bitcoin is the best bet if you think there’s even a tiny chance that the U.S. dollar will collapse as its predecessors did.

Bitcoin is superior to gold, in my opinion. It’s purely digital, while also being divisible, allowing people to transact with it. It’s borderless and portable. And it’s finite, with a hard supply cap of 21 million units. It makes sense that a neutral monetary asset would succeed, or at least rise alongside, the U.S. dollar’s run. Individuals, corporations, financial institutions, and governments should gravitate toward the supreme cryptocurrency.

And that supports a much higher price a decade from now, with the upside even bigger on a longer time horizon. With Bitcoin trading 40% off its peak, at a price that’s under $80,000 right now, investors have the opportunity to buy what could end up being the dominant financial instrument in the economy one day.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Key Takeaways:

• Arthur Hayes ties bitcoin’s outlook to global liquidity, with upside dependent on policy-driven liquidity.
• Geopolitics create a bearish setup as war risk, deleveraging, and AI-driven stress weigh on markets.
• Liquidity injections could lift bitcoin once credit stress forces intervention.

Bitcoin Outlook Hinges on Liquidity

Arthur Hayes’ latest market note, titled “No Trade Zone,” signals that bitcoin’s outlook is increasingly tied to global liquidity conditions rather than traditional macro indicators. On April 15, the Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO outlined a cautious stance, citing geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence-driven economic risks as key constraints. The essay presents BTC as vulnerable in the short term but positioned to respond to future monetary expansion.

Hayes centered his outlook on monetary conditions rather than conventional valuation models. He asked, “Do you believe the quantity or the price of money is more important when valuing bitcoin?” He then answered with a direct thesis:

“I believe the quantity of money determines the price of bitcoin, not its price.”

That view underpins his broader market framework, which expects bitcoin to struggle during periods of forced deleveraging, then strengthen when policymakers expand credit. He tied that dynamic to several geopolitical outcomes involving the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to a domestic economic slowdown driven by job losses among white-collar workers. In Hayes’ view, those pressures could hit credit quality, weigh on banks, and delay any durable crypto rally until authorities supply fresh liquidity to stabilize the system.

War Risk and Credit Stress Threaten Rally

That caution appears clearly in one of the essay’s most specific forecasts. “ Bitcoin might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo,” Hayes wrote. “However, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the liquidity needed to plug the black hole in banks’ balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, bitcoin will not meaningfully rise.” He further shared:

“That’s not to say it couldn’t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.”

The statement shows that he still sees upside potential, but not before broader financial stress is addressed.

Hayes also warned that market stress could produce another sharp bitcoin selloff before any recovery takes hold. “As investors de-risk their portfolios because of higher volatility and lower prices, investors sell bitcoin to meet margin calls,” he described, adding: “Only when things get bad enough will bitcoin rise, as expectations of a bailout become the consensus.” In the most extreme scenario, even a liquidity-fueled rally may not last. As Hayes put it: “The rally in bitcoin, inspired by money printing, might be short-lived because the destruction of the Iranian state materially raises the prospect of WW3.” Taken together, the essay presents a conditional forecast: near-term volatility remains high, while any lasting upside still depends on crisis-era money creation.

Key Takeaways:

• Chainalysis flags Grinex swaps as inconsistent with typical law enforcement seizures.
• Tron-based conversions show illicit actors avoiding stablecoin issuer intervention.
• Grinex activity does not clearly align with patterns of a conventional external hack.

Grinex Shutdown Raises Questions About Crypto Laundering Tactics

Sanctions pressure continues to test the resilience of crypto networks tied to restricted financial activity. Blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis on April 17 examined Grinex after the sanctioned exchange suspended operations. The review described the shutdown as a new stress point for infrastructure tied to sanctions evasion.

Grinex claimed a cyberattack cost about 1 billion rubles, or $13.7 million, and published the source and destination addresses involved. Chainalysis then assessed the transfers using on-chain data rather than relying on the exchange’s narrative. The analysis found that the stolen assets were mainly a fiat-backed stablecoin before being moved through a Tron-based decentralized exchange into TRX.

“In the case of the alleged Grinex hack, the stablecoin funds were quickly swapped for a non-freezable token, thereby avoiding the risk of having the stablecoins frozen by the issuer,” the blockchain analytics firm stated, adding:

“This frantic swapping from stablecoins to more decentralized tokens is a hallmark tactic of cybercriminals and illicit actors attempting to launder funds before a centralized freeze can be executed.”

Chainalysis argued that this behavior does not fit a typical Western law enforcement seizure because authorities can request freezes from centralized stablecoin issuers. The firm instead said the rapid conversion raises questions about whether the activity aligns with a conventional external hack.

Shadow Crypto Economy Shows Deep Interconnected Structure

Those conclusions rest on more than the attack claim alone. Chainalysis noted that the decentralized exchange used in the swap had previously served Garantex, the sanctioned predecessor to Grinex, as a liquidity source for hot wallets. That detail is notable because Chainalysis has already described Grinex as the direct successor to Garantex after international enforcement disrupted the earlier platform. The company also tied Grinex to A7A5, a ruble-backed token issued by sanctioned Kyrgyzstani company Old Vector.

According to the analysis, A7A5 was built for a narrow Russia-linked payments ecosystem aligned with cross-border settlement needs under sanctions pressure. Chainalysis added that the exfiltrated funds were still sitting in a single address at publication time, leaving a live trail for future forensic review.

The broader takeaway was less about one theft than about the financial system surrounding it. Chainalysis observed that the episode is the latest disruption inside a “shadow crypto economy.” That phrase captured the firm’s larger conclusion that Grinex, Garantex, A7A5, and related services formed an interlinked network designed to keep value moving despite sanctions. Chainalysis further disclosed that it labeled the relevant addresses in its products to help customers identify exposure as the funds move downstream. Even without final attribution, the firm made clear that Grinex’s suspension damages a key channel within that sanctioned ecosystem.