Crypto
Bitcoin Dropped Below $80,000 Briefly: Is The Bullish Season Over? | The Motley Fool
Is Bitcoin’s price drop a warning sign or a buying opportunity? Here’s what you need to know.
The Bitcoin (BTC 1.09%) chart has been a roller coaster ride recently.
The original and largest cryptocurrency rose to an all-time high of $106,182 per coin in January, then fell back as much as 25.8% over the next seven weeks. That’s a sharp retreat from a long upswing — Bitcoin has more than quadrupled in price over the last two years. To put the gains in context, the S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.39%) market index showed a total return of 49% over the same period:
Bitcoin Price data by YCharts
So Bitcoin snapped a long winning streak, dipping below $80,000 per coin for the first time since last November. Can the cryptocurrency get back to robust gains or Is the bull run all done?
The bearish case
First and foremost, some investors see very little value in Bitcoin in the first place. Warren Buffett wouldn’t buy all the Bitcoin in the world for $25, because “it isn’t going to do anything.” It isn’t a business operation, or a valuable lot of real estate, or a patch of food-producing farmland. The value of this digital asset isn’t based on anything real, so the only way to make money with it is to find a buyer willing to pay a higher price.
From that perspective, Bitcoin is long overdue for a price correction. The current market value of $1.62 trillion is a lot more than $25, after all.
And even if you see significant value in Bitcoin assets, you could still argue that it’s overpriced. 2024 was packed with potentially game-changing price catalysts for Bitcoin. With the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on spot Bitcoin prices, the fourth halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, and the introduction of a more crypto-friendly U.S. government all in the rearview mirror, maybe there’s no room for further gains in 2025.
Furthermore, many crypto investors are nervous about recent advances in quantum computing. The next-generation computing technology will probably make current encryption algorithms breakable and worthless in the long run — including the popular SHA-256 hashing system at the heart of Bitcoin’s encryption security. Alphabet (GOOG -2.53%) (GOOGL -2.60%) and Microsoft (MSFT -1.17%) have taken massive leaps forward in recent months, arguably accelerating the quantum computing progress by several years. The thinking is that criminals and fraudsters must be on the threshold of hacking Bitcoin’s digital transaction ledger to pieces.
Where the Bitcoin bulls hang their hats
The Bitcoin whitepaper compares the cryptocurrency to physical gold. Instead of buying picks, shovels, mines, and ore refining equipment, Bitcoin miners invest in data centers and electric power. Either way, the two types of miner generate a scarce and therefore valuable resource. They are also useful in the real world: Gold is found in jewelry, medical devices, and electronics while Bitcoin offers a robust and flexible transaction ledger. Warren Buffett was never much of a gold investor, so his aversion to Bitcoin makes sense in this light.
The ETF catalyst delivered some of its value before the actual event. Bitcoin prices rose 72% from early October, 2023 to January 12, 2024. In this time span, the rumor mill chatter about spot Bitcoin ETFs turned into solid expectations, culminating in their approval and introduction. But that’s not the end of their value creation. The most popular name on the list, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT -3.46%) holds $47.4 billion of Bitcoin in a Coinbase Global (COIN -7.43%) custody service. This robust inflow of funds should be the start of a long-term trend. Deep-pocketed institutional investors aren’t ready to open cryptocurrency brokerage accounts yet, but ETFs are easy to use in a standard stock portfolio. So the Bitcoin ETFs open the door to a larger (and richer) population of potential long-term investors.
As for the Trump administration’s cryptocurrency policies, only time will tell how they are changing the Bitcoin market. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve isn’t shaping up to the Bitcoin-buying bonanza some crypto holders had expected, but more of a quiet alternative to gold reserves. A more laissez-faire approach to cryptocurrency regulation may indeed accelerate the widespread adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but the final regulations are probably still many years away.
The quantum computing threat may sound terrifying. In reality, Bitcoin is very much under active development and should be immune to these attacks long before quantum computers are powerful enough to pose a real threat. There are math problems too difficult to solve with a mature quantum computer, and encryption systems are already adopting these stronger algorithms by the boatload. Meanwhile, even the most optimistic forecasts expect quantum computers to stay in the toys-and-experiment stage for at least five more years.
The long-term view
Finally, the shape of this halving cycle looks quite familiar.
Charts never tell the whole story, of course. Previous results are no guarantee of future gains. Still, the halvings make a significant difference to the economics of Bitcoin mining, effectively slashing the financial rewards in half while production expenses stay the same. In the long run, this production model only works if Bitcoin prices rise over time. Along the way, each halving shakes out underfunded or inefficient miners while the top producers continue to make a good living.
On that note, the current halving cycle is fairly close to former examples. The second and third halvings unleashed price jumps measured in thousands of percent — about a year and a half after each halving of the mining rewards. If the ongoing halving’s calendar stays on track, I’d expect peak prices in the fall of 2025, followed by another crypto winter. Things could be different this time, but that’s what Bitcoin’s pricing history looks like.
No, the Bitcoin bull run isn’t over
So the Bitcoin bears have their arguments, but the bulls bring a stronger case to the table. With or without the halving effects, Bitcoin is becoming the digital gold standard for value storage. Even if I never use Bitcoin to pay for a candy bar, a car, or a house, this cryptocurrency and its digital ledger look poised to replace savings accounts over time. That’s a multi-trillion-dollar market, ripe for modernization on a global scale.
That’s why expect Bitcoin to keep building market value, perhaps accentuated by a temporary price spike later this year. In my eyes, Bitcoin is a great asset to own in the long term. The recent price drop is just another short-lived squiggle on the charts.
Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet, Bitcoin, and Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Bitcoin, Coinbase Global, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Crypto
Mercado Libre Ends Mercado Coin Program, Cites No Official Reason
Mercado Coin Is Being Discontinued
The company notified users through the Mercado Pago digital wallet app and email. No public statement was issued. Mercado Libre introduced mercado coin in August 2022, starting in Brazil. The token was built as an ERC-20 asset on the Ethereum blockchain in partnership with crypto exchange Ripio and initially priced at roughly $0.10 per token.
Users earned it as cashback on purchases through Mercado Libre’s marketplace and could either spend mercado coin on the platform or cash it out. The intent was to bring everyday shoppers into the crypto space through a low-friction loyalty mechanism, no need to trade bitcoin or manage volatile assets. In practice, the token stayed inside the Mercado Libre ecosystem and never built meaningful traction elsewhere.
Starting April 17, users can no longer buy, sell, or earn mercado coin through the platform. Holders have three options before the deadline: sell tokens through the Mercado Pago app, spend the balance on Mercado Libre purchases, or do nothing. Any remaining balance after April 17 will be automatically converted to local fiat currency, Brazilian reais for most users, and deposited into their Mercado Pago account.
Mercado Libre gave no explanation in its user notifications for ending the program. The decision fits a pattern seen across large tech and e-commerce companies that built branded tokens during the 2021–2022 crypto expansion cycle. Many are stepping back from proprietary digital assets while keeping or expanding exposure to more established infrastructure like stablecoins and direct crypto trading.
Mercado Libre is not stepping away from crypto entirely. The company continues to offer crypto buying and selling, stablecoin transfers, and other digital asset services through Mercado Pago. It also launched its own dollar-backed stablecoin.
On the treasury side, Mercado Libre holds more than $38 million in bitcoin. The company first disclosed a $7.8 million BTC purchase in 2021 and held 570.4 BTC as of 2025 disclosures. For the roughly 2 million users who held mercado coin at various points, the shutdown carries little practical disruption.
The token had no active secondary market and no meaningful external liquidity. The auto-conversion safety net means holders do not need to take action to recover value. The shutdown reflects a clearer strategic direction for Mercado Libre’s fintech arm: move away from proprietary engagement tokens and focus on payment rails, stablecoins, and crypto custody that serve users across Latin America at scale.
Mercado Pago processes payments for hundreds of millions of users across the region. The company’s decision to retire a niche loyalty token while keeping broader crypto services active suggests the experiment was always peripheral to its core fintech build-out.
Mercado coin’s shutdown closes a chapter on one of Latin America’s more prominent corporate crypto loyalty programs, one that launched with regional ambitions but ended quietly with an auto-convert notice in a wallet app.
FAQ 🔎
- What is mercado coin? Mercado coin was an ERC-20 loyalty token launched by Mercado Libre in Brazil in August 2022 that let users earn cashback on purchases through the Mercado Libre marketplace.
- When does mercado coin shut down? Mercado coin will no longer be available to buy, sell, or earn starting April 17, 2026.
- What happens to remaining mercado coin balances after the shutdown? Any mercado coin balance not spent or sold by April 17, 2026 will be automatically converted to local fiat currency and deposited into the user’s Mercado Pago account.
- Is Mercado Libre leaving the crypto market? No — Mercado Libre continues to offer crypto trading, stablecoin services, and holds over $38 million in bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Crypto
Russia’s Sanctions-Busting Cryptocurrency Empire
In early March, the Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan made a bold move, announcing that it was preparing to take the European Union to court. A few days earlier, the bloc had threatened to ban exports of sensitive dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan in order to prevent their reexport to Russia—a proposal that enraged Kyrgyz officials, who fear that could harm their country’s reputation as Central Asia’s most law-abiding, Western-friendly state. The EU’s concerns about covert shipments of dual-use goods to Russia from Kyrgyzstan are valid, but they may well obscure an even larger issue. Over the past year, Moscow has developed a crypto-based sanctions-evading channel powered by the Russian fintech company A7 and the ruble-linked cryptocurrency A7A5. Part of these flows are routed through Kyrgyzstan.
Western sanctions cut off their targets from global finance, including the SWIFT messaging network, cross-border correspondent banking relationships, and clearing mechanisms for dollar payments. For sanctioned economies, the workaround is obvious: developing Western-proof financial channels. This is what the Kremlin set out to do in late 2024, when it supported the creation of A7, a Moscow-based start-up that specializes in cryptocurrencies. The firm looks innocuous on paper, but scratch beneath the surface, and the Kremlin’s fingerprints appear everywhere. Fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor founded A7 after Russia granted him citizenship. The state-owned bank Promsvyazbank, which serves Russian defense firms, controls 49 percent of A7. To underline the Kremlin’s interest in the venture, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a virtual ribbon-cutting ceremony for the opening of A7’s Vladivostok branch in September 2025.
In early March, the Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan made a bold move, announcing that it was preparing to take the European Union to court. A few days earlier, the bloc had threatened to ban exports of sensitive dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan in order to prevent their reexport to Russia—a proposal that enraged Kyrgyz officials, who fear that could harm their country’s reputation as Central Asia’s most law-abiding, Western-friendly state. The EU’s concerns about covert shipments of dual-use goods to Russia from Kyrgyzstan are valid, but they may well obscure an even larger issue. Over the past year, Moscow has developed a crypto-based sanctions-evading channel powered by the Russian fintech company A7 and the ruble-linked cryptocurrency A7A5. Part of these flows are routed through Kyrgyzstan.
Western sanctions cut off their targets from global finance, including the SWIFT messaging network, cross-border correspondent banking relationships, and clearing mechanisms for dollar payments. For sanctioned economies, the workaround is obvious: developing Western-proof financial channels. This is what the Kremlin set out to do in late 2024, when it supported the creation of A7, a Moscow-based start-up that specializes in cryptocurrencies. The firm looks innocuous on paper, but scratch beneath the surface, and the Kremlin’s fingerprints appear everywhere. Fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor founded A7 after Russia granted him citizenship. The state-owned bank Promsvyazbank, which serves Russian defense firms, controls 49 percent of A7. To underline the Kremlin’s interest in the venture, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a virtual ribbon-cutting ceremony for the opening of A7’s Vladivostok branch in September 2025.
A7 offers access to a unique product: A7A5, a cryptocurrency issued by the obscure Kyrgyz firm Old Vector and regulated by Kyrgyz financial rules. It is also backed by Promsvyazbank’s deposits. Three features of A7A5 make it clear that its creators designed it for sanctions evasion at an industrial scale. First, the Promsvyazbank backing ensures virtually unlimited liquidity. Second, Russian firms can convert rubles into A7A5, circumventing the restrictions on ruble payments and Russian-held accounts implemented by all major cryptocurrency exchanges since 2022. Third, A7A5 holders can use the platform’s instant swap service to convert their coins into mainstream, dollar-pegged stablecoins, such as tether. Conveniently, the service lacks know-your-customer (KYC) processes to verify identities, hindering efforts to attribute transactions to sanctioned Russian firms.
This anonymity may sound counterintuitive, since the blockchain technology behind cryptocurrencies relies on public ledgers. However, “public” does not mean “identified.” The ledger records transfers between wallet addresses, not identifiable individuals or firms—like a highway where every car is visible but none has a license plate identifying its owner. The fact that A7A5’s crypto-to-stablecoin swap service has no KYC processes further reinforces anonymity. While Western security services can monitor A7A5 transactions in real time, connecting a wallet to a sanctioned Russian firm is a more difficult undertaking. Attribution requires names, documents, or intercepted communications, which the entire A7A5 architecture is designed to deny.
Experts estimate that A7A5 turnover stood at around $72 billion–$93 billion in 2025, a range that is equivalent to as much as one-third of Russia’s entire imports bill. Meanwhile, A7 processed some $39 billion in transactions linked to sanctions evasion, a figure roughly equivalent to Russia’s prewar annual import bill for high-tech—and often dual-use—goods. The list of cryptocurrency addresses doing business with A7 reads like a who’s who of sanctions evasion networks. Many of the addresses are tied to Chinese, Southeast Asian, and South African firms that procure sensitive electronic goods, dual-use equipment, and shipping services that Moscow can use for its war effort. TRM Labs, which specializes in blockchain investigations, has also tied A7-linked addresses to U.S.- and European Union-designated terrorist groups such as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hamas.
Western policymakers have no simple solution for curbing crypto-enabled sanctions evasion. For starters, consider the obvious issue: A7, Promsvyazbank, and Old Vector are all under U.S. sanctions, meaning they already operate outside Western financial channels and their owners have nothing to lose. Moreover, addressing sanctions evasion often resembles a game of whack-a-mole: Designate an entity, and it will soon reopen under a different name. Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange that specialized in money laundering, drug trafficking, and terrorist financing, illustrates this challenge. Washington sanctioned Garantex in 2022, yet the exchange still operated for three more years. After a joint U.S.-EU law enforcement operation seized the firm’s domains and servers in Germany and Finland in 2025, five other exchanges replaced Garantex within weeks.
Western policymakers also face a tricky political environment domestically. In the United States, President Donald Trump, his family, and some of his business partners have embraced cryptocurrencies with gusto. He has launched his own memecoin, embraced dollar-backed stablecoins that networks such as A7 plug into, and pushed for financial deregulation. Just a few weeks after A7 fell under U.S. sanctions, Donald Trump Jr. was a VIP speaker at the Token2049 cryptocurrency conference in Singapore, where A7A5 was a platinum sponsor. A7A5 abruptly disappeared from the program after Reuters sent a request for comment to the organizers.
Meanwhile, European policymakers also know that there is little they can do about Russia’s cryptocurrency activities. MiCA, the EU’s cryptocurrency regulation, only applies to EU-based exchanges. Therefore, the legislation cannot reach networks operating entirely outside European jurisdiction, such as A7/A7A5 or even tether. Implementing new sanctions on Russia-enabled cryptocurrencies would also be easier said than done. The bloc had planned an EU-wide ban on all crypto transactions with Russia-based counterparties in its 20th sanctions package, but Hungary’s and Slovakia’s vetoes over energy measures have put the new package in limbo.
Not all is lost, though. EU policymakers still have options to curb the rise of cryptocurrencies designed for illicit activities, such as A7A5. One option would be to collaborate with the United States to pressure issuers of dollar-pegged stablecoins to implement robust KYC checks. The goal would be to prevent anonymous A7A5 holders from converting their assets into mainstream stablecoins. With Trump in the White House, however, this is probably a steep ask—but it remains worth a try. Alternatively, the EU could pressure A7A5’s weak points over which the bloc has leverage—its dependence on Kyrgyzstan—to disrupt the network’s operations. Threatening to ban the export of EU-made dual-use products to Kyrgyzstan could be a useful stick in such discussions.
Moscow’s newfound interest in cryptocurrencies is not an outlier. Tehran has offered to accept cryptocurrency payments for its drone and missile sales, and Pyongyang steals cryptocurrency to boost its revenues. Together, these developments raise the question of how effective sanctions are against the growth of financial networks that the U.S. deregulation drive is helping to build. The Western sanctions toolbox was designed for a world of banks and wire transfers, not one in which cryptocurrencies can be exchanged for dollars in seconds—no questions asked. With A7A5, Moscow has provided a proof of concept. It’s likely only a matter of time before other sanctioned regimes follow in its footsteps.
Crypto
Washington State Targets Kalshi in Illegal Online Betting Lawsuit
Is Kalshi Legal in Washington State? AG Says No, Files Suit
The complaint, filed in King County Superior Court, targets Kalshi‘s binary event contracts, wagers priced between one cent and 99 cents that pay out $1 to winners and nothing to losers. Washington argues those contracts meet the state’s statutory definition of gambling under RCW 9.46.0237: “ staking or risking something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance or a future contingent event not under the person’s control.”
Brown’s office is seeking a permanent injunction, full restitution for Washington residents’ losses, disgorgement of Kalshi’s profits, and civil penalties for each violation. Investigators also want a full accounting of every Washington user’s transactions.
The AG’s office did not limit its targets to sports betting. The complaint accuses Kalshi of offering markets on elections, Supreme Court cases, entertainment outcomes, public health data, and international conflicts. “For Kalshi, every event, every tragedy is nothing more than a potential way for Americans to risk their fortunes,” Brown said in a statement accompanying the filing.
Kalshi, founded in 2018 and publicly launched around 2021, operates as a CFTC-designated contract market for event contracts — a category of commodity derivatives. The company expanded aggressively into sports betting in 2025 and has marketed its platform as “legal betting in all 50 states.”
The company moved the case to federal court immediately after the filing, citing exclusive federal jurisdiction. A Kalshi spokesperson said Brown’s office had a scheduled meeting with Kalshi before filing suit and that going forward with the complaint was premature. Kalshi also disputed specific market claims in the complaint, saying it does not offer war markets as alleged.
Washington has among the strictest gambling statutes in the country. Its 1889 state constitution prohibited gambling on state lands. The 1973 Gambling Act tightly limited most forms of wagering, and the 2006 legislation explicitly banned online gambling. State officials insist Kalshi operates outside all three frameworks.
Washington is not acting alone. At least 11 states have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market platforms. Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi in March 2026. Nevada obtained a temporary restraining order barring Kalshi from offering sports, politics, and entertainment markets, and a separate 60-day preliminary injunction covering Coinbase’s Kalshi-powered products. An Ohio federal judge ruled Kalshi must follow state gambling laws for sports betting.
Kalshi has also notched federal wins. Courts in New Jersey and Tennessee ruled in its favor. A case in Michigan involves rival platform Polymarket, which filed preemptively. Utah, where Kalshi sued to block a proposed ban, remains active.
The legal conflict centers on a direct clash between state police powers and federal commodities law. The CFTC has issued guidance on manipulation and is weighing additional rules. Trump administration CFTC Chair Brian Selig and prior agency amicus briefs have sided with federal preemption.
Legal experts tracking the cases say the disagreement could reach the U.S. Supreme Court. States argue prediction market platforms are sportsbooks operating without state licenses, targeting young adults through leaderboards, push notifications, and influencer promotions. Kalshi disputes that framing, saying its exchange is structurally different from state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos.
Washington residents using Kalshi may lose access to the platform while litigation proceeds. The state’s restitution claim draws on the Recovery of Money Lost at Gambling Act, which allows consumers to reclaim gambling losses.
The case is in its earliest stages. The federal transfer ruling will determine which court hears the matter first.
FAQ 🔎
- What is Kalshi being sued for in Washington? Washington AG Nick Brown alleges Kalshi operates an illegal online gambling service in violation of the state’s Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act.
- Is Kalshi legal in Washington State? Washington says no — the state is seeking a permanent injunction to block Kalshi from operating within its borders.
- How does Kalshi respond to the Washington lawsuit? Kalshi moved the case to federal court, arguing it operates under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction that preempts state gambling laws.
- What states have taken action against Kalshi? Washington, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, and at least 11 other states have filed lawsuits, criminal charges, or cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi or rival prediction markets.
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