Business
What We’re Watching in 2025
Andrew here. Happy New Year and happy Saturday. This morning, we’re taking a look at what may — or may not — happen in 2025. This is not an effort to crystal-ball the future so much as it is a rundown of big topics that the DealBook team and I have on our radar screen in the new year.
On this list: Changes to deal-making in the new Trump era, the future (or end) of D.E.I. efforts, the growing momentum of workers returning to the office, the evolving relationship between China and the U.S., new investments in artificial intelligence, and yes, the role of Elon Musk in all of the above. Let us know what you think. And we’ll revisit this list at the end of the year.
Deals will flow. Deal makers pretty much universally expect a flood of deals under President-elect Donald Trump after four years of pent-up activity under President Biden, whose antitrust enforcers challenged a record number of mergers. The more interesting question: Which kinds of companies will make those deals? More M.&A. in the energy sector seems probable, given Trump’s support for the industry. Bank deals could also take off: After the regional banking crisis, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the country could benefit from more mergers. Deals may also pop up to address cybersecurity concerns, the impact of GLP-1 drugs and the fierce A.I race.
Media companies will reshuffle. Media executives and their advisers have been saying for years that the industry needs a drastic overhaul to address its new reality: an overabundance of streaming options and the decline of the legacy cable industry. Deals that were effectively considered a no-go under Biden’s aggressive antitrust enforcers may finally be given a green light under a Trump administration.
Everyone is watching to see what a handful of key players do next: Will Comcast’s move to spin off its cable business inspire others, such as Warner Bros. Discovery, to do the same? Will Paramount use Larry Ellison’s deep pockets to acquire streaming businesses? Will Rupert Murdoch respond to his failed attempt to change his family trust by selling Fox, making it bigger, or trying to buy out some of his children? Will Trump allow a major media company (or his own) to buy TikTok?
Big Tech may not catch a break. While corporate America has been anticipating a longer leash under the Trump administration, Silicon Valley giants may still face a lot of scrutiny. Several of Trump’s picks to lead key regulators — Andrew Ferguson at the Federal Trade Commission, Gail Slater at the Justice Department’s antitrust division and Brendan Carr of the Federal Communications Commission — are expected to keep looking closely at Big Tech.
Unlike Lina Khan, the outgoing F.T.C. chief whose lawsuits fighting tech giants’ market power came from a progressive perspective, many of Trump’s picks have accused companies like Google and Meta of silencing conservative voices.
What will Elon Musk do with his power? The tech billionaire has been one of the most influential and omnipresent voices in Trump’s ear since the election, and his perch as co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency potentially gives him great sway — some critics say too much — over government agencies that fear budget cuts.
But the extent of Musk’s agenda remains unclear. He has already fought longtime Trump allies in defense of the skilled-worker visa program known as H-1B, a battle that he appears to have won for now. He’s also likely to push for further deregulation and more openness when it comes to A.I. and crypto. One unknown: how Musk, who sells a lot of Teslas in China, will weigh in on Beijing policy.
Executives want employees back in the office — and politics out of it. Starting this month, many of Amazon’s corporate staff members were required to work from the office five days a week, up from three days a week previously. The tech company’s return-to-office mandate caused waves and there are signs that office attendance across industries is ticking up.
But remote work remains prevalent, with about 30 million workers in hybrid or fully remote arrangements. Will other big tech companies follow Amazon’s lead in 2025?
Along with office attendance, executives are increasingly cracking down on employee activism. Starbucks sued a union that represents some of its workers after local affiliates posted pro-Palestinian social media posts (the union sued back). After Google fired dozens of employees last year over protests related to the company’s cloud computing contract with the Israeli government, the Google C.E.O., Sundar Pichai, told employees that work was not a place to “fight over disruptive issues or debate politics.” The sentiment seems to be catching on: Big tech companies that saw protests after Trump was elected in 2016 were silent after he was elected in 2024. Will the quiet continue?
D.E.I. will fight for its life. In 2024, the programs were attacked by lawsuits, activists such as Robby Starbuck and conservative lawmakers. As companies prepare for a Trump administration, some, like JetBlue and Molson Coors, have flagged diversity, equity and inclusion policies as a risk factor in their security filings. Walmart, Ford Motor and Toyota have rolled back some programs, and others are rebranding their efforts without advertising it, in hopes of attracting less attention. Fewer have publicly fought back, though Costco last month challenged a proposal by activist shareholders looking to end its D.E.I. efforts.
Infrastructure will become a growing focus of the A.I. race. The fight to dominate artificial intelligence is also spurring investment in infrastructure to generate the huge amount of electricity it requires. The International Energy Agency has forecast data center energy demand could double by 2026.
Some of the tech industry’s highest-profile executives are investing. Sam Altman of OpenAI, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are all backing nuclear fusion start-ups. Microsoft and BlackRock launched a $30 billion fund to invest in A.I. infrastructure last year. Silver Lake, the private equity firm, is spending big on data centers.
One name to watch this year: SoftBank. The Japanese tech investor has reportedly talked to Apollo, the private equity firm, about creating a $20 billion A.I. investment fund, and Masa Son, SoftBank’s mercurial C.E.O., is hunting for deals.
Defense tech could be in for a bumper year. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine. Whether or not he succeeds, the defense tech industry will benefit either way. It’s already happening: Venture investment in defense start-ups soared last year, and by September had surpassed the total amount invested in 2023. Palantir, a data analytics company, was a star performer. Its market capitalization jumped almost fivefold to $180 billion in 2024, its operating margins have risen sharply and it joined the S&P 500 in September.
Others are also profiting from rising global uncertainty. Anduril Industries, a California-based defense start-up backed by Peter Thiel, the venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder, announced in August that it had raised $1.5 billion in a funding round that valued it at $14 billion. And Helsing, a German start-up that uses A.I. to process live data from the battlefield, is one of Europe’s best-funded companies.
If Trump does manage to end the war, it’s plausible that Western defense companies will find opportunities helping to build Ukraine’s military capability. If he doesn’t, more of their tech may be deployed on the ground there. Smaller, A.I.-powered companies are already testing their equipment in real time in a war where drones and other tech are playing a big role.
How will Trump take on China, and how will Beijing respond? Trump has promised to increase tariffs on goods from China, accusing Beijing and its companies of unfair competition among other things. It’s the same stance he took during his first presidency, when he ratcheted up trade restrictions with the world’s second-biggest economy.
Much uncertainty remains about how Trump’s threats will play out once he’s in office, but Chinese companies have proven adept at finding ways around previous restrictions. Some moved final manufacturing and assembly operations to countries like Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia so they could export directly to the United States without paying the 25 percent levy Trump imposed during his first term. Other businesses, such as Temu, the e-commerce company, set up operations in the U.S. to appear less Chinese and more American. Even after that facade faded, it’s still thriving: Temu was the most downloaded free app in Apple’s App Store in 2024.
How will Trump’s policies affect the economy? Trump’s plan to cut taxes and red tape is expected to keep G.D.P. growth steady at about 3 percent this year, and bolster American businesses’ bottom line in the short run. But his vow to impose tariffs on some of the country’s biggest trading partners on his first day in office could seriously crimp global growth in 2025.
Another pressing question is whether Trump will dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, which would put billions of dollars’ worth of tax credits in jeopardy. That prospect has prompted even some Big Oil executives to lobby Trump hard to preserve the law.
A wild-card: inflation. Will Trump’s policies reignite it, spooking both the Fed and the so-called bond vigilantes? Keep an eye on the yield for 10-year Treasury notes, market watchers say. A spike there could force the administration to dial back its most ambitious plans to stimulate growth. Already, inflation fears have prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for 2025 rate cuts.
Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.
We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
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Politicians in Washington and the reporters who cover them have an often adversarial relationship.
But on the last Saturday in April, they gather for an irreverent celebration of press freedom and the First Amendment at the Washington Hilton Hotel: The White House Correspondents’ Association dinner.
Hosted by the association, an organization that helps ensure access for media outlets covering the presidency, the dinner attracts Hollywood stars; politicians from both parties; and representatives of more than 100 networks, newspapers, magazines and wire services.
While The Times will have two reporters in the ballroom covering the event, the company no longer buys seats at the party, said Richard W. Stevenson, the Washington bureau chief. The decision goes back almost two decades; the last dinner The Times attended as an organization was in 2007.
“We made a judgment back then that the event had become too celebrity-focused and was undercutting our need to demonstrate to readers that we always seek to maintain a proper distance from the people we cover, many of whom attend as guests,” he said.
It’s a decision, he added, that “we have stuck by through both Republican and Democratic administrations, although we support the work of the White House Correspondents’ Association.”
Susan Wessling, The Times’s Standards editor, said the policy is a product of the organization’s desire to maintain editorial independence.
“We don’t want to leave readers with any questions about our independence and credibility by seeming to be overly friendly with people whose words and actions we need to report on,” she said.
The celebrity mentalist Oz Pearlman is headlining the evening, in lieu of the usual comedy set by the likes of Stephen Colbert and Hasan Minhaj, but all eyes will be on President Trump, who will make his first appearance at the dinner as president.
Mr. Trump has boycotted the event since 2011, when he was the butt of punchlines delivered by President Barack Obama and the talk show host Seth Meyers mocking his hair, his reality TV show and his preoccupation with the “birther” movement.
Last month, though, Mr. Trump, who has a contentious relationship with the media, announced his intention to attend this year’s dinner, where he will speak to a room full of the same reporters he often derides as “enemies of the people.”
Times reporters will be there to document the highs, the lows and the reactions in the room. A reporter for the Styles desk has also been assigned to cover the robust roster of after-parties around Washington.
Some off-duty reporters from The Times will also be present at this late-night circuit, though everyone remains cognizant of their roles, said Patrick Healy, The Times’s assistant managing editor for Standards and Trust.
“If they’re reporting, there’s a notebook or recorder out as usual,” he said. “If they’re not, they’re pros who know they’re always identifiable as Times journalists.”
For most of The Times’s reporters and editors, though, the evening will be experienced from home.
“The rest of us will be able to follow the coverage,” Mr. Stevenson said, “without having to don our tuxes or gowns.”
A former female staffer who worked for Beast Industries, the media venture behind the popular YouTube channel MrBeast, is suing the company, alleging she was sexually harassed and fired shortly after she returned from maternity leave.
The employee, Lorrayne Mavromatis, a Brazilian-born social media professional, alleges in a lawsuit she was subjected to sexual harassment by the company’s management and demoted after she complained about her treatment. She said she was urged to join a conference call while in labor and expected to work during her maternity leave in violation of the Family and Medical Leave Act, according to the federal complaint filed Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of North Carolina.
“This clout-chasing complaint is built on deliberate misrepresentations and categorically false statements, and we have the receipts to prove it. There is extensive evidence — including Slack and WhatsApp messages, company documents, and witness testimony — that unequivocally refutes her claims. We will not submit to opportunistic lawyers looking to manufacture a payday from us,” Gaude Paez, a Beast Industries spokesperson, said in a statement.
Jimmy Donaldson, 27, began MrBeast as a teen gaming channel that soon exploded into a media company worth an estimated $5 billion, with 500 employees and 450 million subscribers who watch its games, stunts and giveaways.
Mavromatis, who was hired in 2022 as its head of Instagram, described a pervasive climate of discrimination and harassment, according to the lawsuit.
In her complaint, she alleges the company’s former CEO James Warren made her meet him at his home for one-on-one meetings while he commented on her looks and dismissed her complaints about a male client’s unwanted advances, telling her “she should be honored that the client was hitting on her.”
When Mavromatis asked Warren why MrBeast, Donaldson, would not work with her, she was told that “she is a beautiful woman and her appearance had a certain sexual effect on Jimmy,” and, “Let’s just say that when you’re around and he goes to the restroom, he’s not actually using the restroom.”
Paez refuted the claim.
“That’s ridiculous. This is an allegation fabricated for the sole purpose of sparking headlines,” Paez said.
Mavromatis said she endured a slate of other indignities such as being told by Donaldson that she “would only participate in her video shoot if she brought him a beer.”
“In this male-centric workplace, Plaintiff, one of the few women in a high-level role, was excluded from otherwise all-male meetings, demeaned in front of colleagues, harassed, and suffered from males be given preferential treatment in employment decisions,” states the complaint.
When Mavromatis raised a question during a staff meeting with her team, she said a male colleague told her to “shut up” or “stop talking.”
At MrBeast headquarters in Greenville, N.C., she said male executives mocked female contestants participating in BeastGames, “who complained they did not have access to feminine hygiene products and clean underwear while participating in the show.”
In November 2023, Mavromatis formally complained about “the sexually inappropriate encounters and harassment, and demeaning and hostile work environment she and other female employees had been living and experiencing working at MrBeast,” to the company’s then head of human resources, Sue Parisher, who is also Donaldson’s mother, according to the suit.
In her complaint, Mavromatis said Beast Industries did not have a method or process for employees to report such issues either anonymously or to a third party, rather employees were expected to follow the company’s handbook, “How to Succeed In MrBeast Production.”
In it, employees were instructed that, “It’s okay for the boys to be childish,” “if talent wants to draw a dick on the white board in the video or do something stupid, let them” and “No does not mean no,” according to the complaint.
Mavromatis alleges that she was demoted and then fired.
Paez said that Mavromatis’s role was eliminated as part of a reorganization of an underperforming group within Beast Industries and that she was made aware of this.
Lululemon, the yoga pants and athletic clothing company, has hired a former executive from a rival, Nike, as its new chief executive.
Heidi O’Neill, who spent more than 25 years at Nike, will take the reins and join Lululemon’s board of directors on Sept. 8, the company announced on Wednesday.
The leadership change is happening during a tumultuous time for Lululemon, which had grown to $11 billion in revenue by persuading shoppers to ditch their jeans and slacks for stretchy leggings. But lately, sales have declined in North America amid intense competition and shifting fashion trends, with consumers favoring looser styles rather than the form-fitting silhouettes for which Lululemon is best known.
“As I step into the C.E.O. role in September, my job will be to build on that foundation — to accelerate product breakthroughs, deepen the brand’s cultural relevance, and unlock growth in markets around the world,” Ms. O’Neill, 61, said in a statement.
Lululemon, based in Vancouver, British Columbia, has also been entangled in a corporate power struggle over the company’s future. Its billionaire founder, Chip Wilson, has feuded with the board, nominated independent directors and criticized executives.
Lululemon’s previous chief executive, Calvin McDonald, stepped down at the end of January as pressure mounted from Mr. Wilson and some investors. One activist investor, Elliott Investment Management, had pushed its own chief executive candidate, who was not selected.
The interim co-chiefs, Meghan Frank and André Maestrini, will lead the company until Ms. O’Neill’s arrival, when they are expected to return to other senior roles. The pair had outlined a plan to revive sales at Lululemon, promising to invest in stores, save more money and speed up product development.
“We start the year with a real plan, with real strategies,” Mr. Maestrini said in an interview this year. “We make sure decisions are made fast.”
Lululemon said last month that it would add Chip Bergh, the former chief executive of Levi Strauss, to its board to replace David Mussafer, the chairman of the private equity firm Advent International, whom Mr. Wilson had sought to remove.
Ms. O’Neill climbed the organizational chart at Nike for decades, working across divisions including consumer sports, product innovation and brand marketing, and was most recently its president of consumer, product and brand. She left Nike last year amid a shake-up of senior management that led to the elimination of her role.
Analysts said Ms. O’Neill would be expected to find ways to energize Lululemon’s business and reset the company’s culture in order to improve performance.
“O’Neill is her own person who will come with an agenda of change,” said Neil Saunders, the managing director of GlobalData, a data analytics and consulting company. “The task ahead is a significant one, but it can be undertaken from a position of relative stability.”
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