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The Optimist’s Guide to Artificial Intelligence and Work

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The Optimist’s Guide to Artificial Intelligence and Work

It’s easy to fear that the machines are taking over: Companies like IBM and the British telecommunications company BT have cited artificial intelligence as a reason for reducing head count, and new tools like ChatGPT and DALL-E make it possible for anyone to understand the extraordinary abilities of artificial intelligence for themselves. One recent study from researchers at OpenAI (the start-up behind ChatGPT) and the University of Pennsylvania concluded that for about 80 percent of jobs, at least 10 percent of tasks could be automated using the technology behind such tools.

“Everybody I talk to, supersmart people, doctors, lawyers, C.E.O.s, other economists, your brain just first goes to, ‘Oh, how can generative A.I. replace this thing that humans are doing?’” said Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI.

But that’s not the only option, he said. “The other thing that I wish people would do more of is think about what new things could be done now that was never done before. Obviously that’s a much harder question.” It is also, he added, “where most of the value is.”

How technology makers design, business leaders use and policymakers regulate A.I. tools will determine how generative A.I. ultimately affects jobs, Brynjolfsson and other economists say. And not all the choices are necessarily bleak for workers.

A.I. can complement human labor rather than replace it. Plenty of companies use A.I. to automate call centers, for instance. But a Fortune 500 company that provides business software has instead used a tool like ChatGPT to give its workers live suggestions for how to respond to customers. Brynjolfsson and his co-authors of a study compared the call center employees who used the tool to those who didn’t. They found that the tool boosted productivity by 14 percent on average, with most of the gains made by low-skilled workers. Customer sentiment was also higher and employee turnover lower in the group that used the tool.

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David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that A.I. could potentially be used to deliver “expertise on tap” in jobs like health care delivery, software development, law, and skilled repair. “That offers an opportunity to enable more workers to do valuable work that relies on some of that expertise,” he said.

Workers can focus on different tasks. As A.T.M.s automated the tasks of dispensing cash and taking deposits , the number of bank tellers increased, according to an analysis by James Bessen, a researcher at the Boston University School of Law. This was partly because while bank branches required fewer workers, they became cheaper to open — and banks opened more of them. But banks also changed the job description. After A.T.M.s, tellers focused less on counting cash and more on building relationships with customers, to whom they sold products like credit cards. Few jobs can be completely automated by generative A.I. But using an A.I. tool for some tasks may free up workers to expand their work on tasks that can’t be automated.

New technology can lead to new jobs. Farming employed nearly 42 percent of the work force in 1900, but because of automation and advances in technology, it accounted for just 2 percent by 2000. The huge reduction in farming jobs didn’t result in widespread unemployment. Instead, technology created a lot of new jobs. A farmer in the early 20th century would not have imagined computer coding, genetic engineering or trucking. In an analysis that used census data, Autor and his co-authors found that 60 percent of current occupational specialties did not exist 80 years ago.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that workers will be qualified for new jobs, or that they’ll be good jobs. And none of this just happens, said Daron Acemoglu, an economics professor at M.I.T. and a co-author of “Power and Progress: Our 1,000-Year Struggle Over Technology & Prosperity.”

“If we make the right choices, then we do create new types of jobs, which is crucial for wage growth and also for truly reaping the productivity benefits,” Acemoglu said. “But if we do not make the right choices, much less of this can happen.” — Sarah Kessler

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Martha’s model behavior. The lifestyle entrepreneur Martha Stewart became the oldest person to be featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit issue this week. Stewart, 81, told The Times that it was a “large challenge” to have the confidence to pose but that two months of Pilates had helped. She isn’t the first person over 60 to have the distinction: Maye Musk, the mother of Elon Musk, graced the cover last year at the age of 74.

TikTok block. Montana became the first state to ban the Chinese short video app, barring app stores from offering TikTok within its borders starting Jan. 1. The ban is expected to be difficult to enforce, and TikTok users in the state have sued the government, saying the measure violates their First Amendment rights and giving a glimpse of the potential blowback if the federal government tries to block TikTok nationwide.

Banker blame game. Greg Becker, the ex-C.E.O. of Silicon Valley Bank, blamed “rumors and misconceptions” for a run on deposits in his first public comments since the lender collapsed in March. Becker and former top executives of the failed Signature Bank also told a Senate committee investigating their role in the collapse of the banks that they would not give back millions of dollars in pay.

When OpenAI’s chief executive, Sam Altman, testified in Congress this week and called for regulation of generative artificial intelligence, some lawmakers hailed it as a “historic” move. In fact, asking lawmakers for new rules is a move straight out of the tech industry playbook. Silicon Valley’s most powerful executives have long gone to Washington to demonstrate their commitment to rules in an attempt to shape them while simultaneously unleashing some of the world’s most powerful and transformative technologies without pause.

One reason: A federal rule is much easier to manage than different regulations in different states, Bruce Mehlman, a political consultant and former technology policy official in the Bush administration, told DealBook. Clearer regulations also give investors more confidence in a sector, he added.

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The strategy sounds sensible, but if history is a useful guide, the reality can be messier than the rhetoric:

  • In December 2021, Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the failed crypto exchange FTX, was one of six executives to testify about digital assets in the House and call for regulatory clarity. His company had just submitted a proposal for a “unified joint regime,” he told lawmakers. A year later, Bankman-Fried’s businesses were bankrupt, and he was facing criminal fraud and illegal campaign contribution charges.

  • In 2019, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg wrote an opinion piece in The Washington Post, “The Internet Needs New Rules,” based on failures in content moderation, election integrity, privacy and data management at the company. Two years later, independent researchers found that misinformation was more rampant on the platform than in 2016, even though the company had spent billions trying to stamp it out.

  • In 2018, the Apple chief Tim Cook said he was generally averse to regulation but supported more strict data privacy rules, saying, “It’s time for a set of people to think about what can be done.” But to maintain its business in China, one of its biggest markets, Apple has largely ceded control of customer data to the government as part of its requirements to operate there.


Platforms like TikTok, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter use algorithms to identify and moderate problematic content. To avert these digital moderators and allow free exchange about taboo topics, a linguistic code has developed. It’s called “algospeak.”

“A linguistic arms race is raging online — and it isn’t clear who’s winning,” writes Roger J. Kreuz, a psychology professor at the University of Memphis. Posts about sensitive issues like politics, sex or suicide can be flagged by algorithms and taken down, leading to the use of creative misspellings and stand-ins, like “seggs” and “mascara” for sex, “unalive” for death and “cornucopia” for homophobia. There is a history of responding to prohibitions with code, Kruz notes, such as 19th-century Cockney rhyming slang in England or “Aesopian,” an allegorical language used to circumvent censorship in Tsarist Russia.

Algorithms aren’t alone in not picking up on the code. The euphemisms and misspellings are particularly ubiquitous among marginalized communities. But the hidden language also sometimes eludes humans, leading to potentially fraught miscommunications online. In February, the celebrity Julia Fox found herself in an awkward exchange with a victim of sexual assault after misunderstanding a post about “mascara” and had to issue a public apology for responding inappropriately to what she thought was a discussion about makeup.

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SAG-AFTRA taps Nielsen for streaming data to enforce new contract

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SAG-AFTRA taps Nielsen for streaming data to enforce new contract

SAG-AFTRA has tapped audience measurement company Nielsen to provide streaming data that will inform how the performers union enforces certain terms of its new contract with the top studios.

Nielsen announced Thursday that it will function as the official third-party provider of streaming viewership numbers for the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. The Nielsen data is expected to complement additional viewership info supplied by the streaming giants themselves.

“New business models require new tools, and that’s why we’ve enlisted Nielsen,” said Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, chief negotiator and national executive director of SAG-AFTRA. “The information they provide will give us the means to cross-check the data streamers give us and ensure employers are fulfilling their contractual obligations to our members.”

The partnership comes several months after SAG-AFTRA reached a deal with the major studios and streamers to end the 118-day actors’ strike. As part of that three-year pact, the streaming companies have agreed to share viewership numbers with the guild.

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SAG-AFTRA intends to use the data to qualify for bonuses performers employed on hit movies and TV shows streaming on Netflix, Max, Amazon’s Prime Video and other platforms. Per the contract, actors are entitled to a bonus (in addition to residuals) if their program is viewed by at least 20% of the streaming service’s domestic subscribers within the first 90 days of its release.

Twenty-five percent of the bonus pool will go to a newly created streaming payment distribution fund, which will fund streaming bonuses for additional performers.

“The rapid evolution of the media landscape and audience behaviors over the past decade has not only affected how content is consumed and measured but also greatly impacts the financial models on which the entertainment industry operates,” said Karthik Rao, chief executive of Nielsen.

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A slice of tourists hasn't returned since COVID. L.A. wants them back.

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A slice of tourists hasn't returned since COVID. L.A. wants them back.

Before the pandemic, a steady stream of buses ferrying tourists from Brazil, China, Australia and elsewhere pulled into the Original Farmers Market every day. They typically idled for an hour or so, while their passengers ate and shopped for souvenirs at the historic collection of food stalls and kitschy shops in the heart of Los Angeles.

The buses still come these days. But, if the city’s overall tourism figures are any indication, the number of international travelers isn’t what it used to be.

Adam Burke is looking to fix that.

As president and chief executive of the Los Angeles Tourism & Convention Board, Burke has watched the city rebound after the dark days of COVID-19 to reassert itself as one of the country’s most popular travel destinations. The recovery, however, is incomplete as visits from international travelers remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

Boosting those visits, Burke says, is crucial to the overall strength of L.A.’s tourism industry, which brought in nearly $22 billion in 2022 and has more than 530,000 people working in tourism-related careers, according to city statistics. Foreign travelers tend to stay longer and spend more.

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“It’s impossible to overstate how critically important international visitation is to L.A.,” Burke said, adding that the spending power of one international traveler is equal to three domestic visitors.

A pit stop at the farmers market is one of the many offerings that local officials, hotel executives and others from the L.A. tourism industry will be pitching to representatives from hundreds of international travel-related companies at an annual conference at L.A.’s convention center this week.

They’re hoping the conference provides an additional boost to the number of visits from abroad. While the volume of domestic visitors to L.A. has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, the 5.8 million international visitors L.A. received last year represents only about three-quarters of the total who came in 2019, according to figures from the tourism board.

The conference marks the starting point of a broader campaign by the tourism board, which has plans to use money from a federal grant to bolster marketing and branding targeting international travelers.

The push to regain foreign visitors in Los Angeles is reflected in national tourism statistics. Before the pandemic hit, the amount that visitors to the U.S. spent in the country outpaced the total American travelers spent abroad, giving the country a so-called travel trade surplus. Beginning in the summer of 2021, however, that balance has shifted as international travel to the U.S. has slipped, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.

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In California, as elsewhere, the slowdown in international tourism has been driven largely by the flagging number of visitors from China and other Asian countries, industry experts said.

Although the more than 75 million departures and arrivals at LAX in 2023 marked a nearly 14% jump in volume from the previous year, the total was still about 15% below the airport’s traffic in 2019, according to Dae Levine, a spokesperson for Los Angeles World Airports.

“The gap we are looking to make up is flights to and from China,” Levine said.

Chilly relations between the U.S. and China, as well as restrictions to Russian airspace that interfere with flight routes, have meant that the number of flights arriving from China has remained low despite the end of the lockdown.

A lunch crowd gathers at Phil’s Deli & Grill, inside the Original Farmers Market in Los Angeles, in 2022.

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(Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Times)

The number of flights has been climbing gradually over the past year. Since the end of March, U.S. transportation officials have allowed Chinese airlines to increase the number of round-trip flights into the country each week from 35 to 50, which is nearly a third of pre-pandemic levels.

Tourism officials in L.A. are encouraged by the upcoming conference, where China is expected to send one of the largest delegations .

The slow pace of processing visa applications has further dissuaded travelers, said Geoff Freeman, president of the U.S. Travel Assn. In India, would-be tourists typically must wait more than a year for an interview at the U.S. Embassy or a consulate that is a part of the visa application, and in Colombia the wait can stretch to nearly two years, he said.

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“As you can imagine, if someone told you there was a 700-day wait, you would say, ‘I’m going to go somewhere else,’” Freeman said.

Burke, who serves as a member of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Travel and Tourism Advisory Board, is among those pushing the White House to ease travel restrictions, address visa backlogs and boost flight volumes.

In some ways, L.A. as a tourist destination is a difficult sell, said Jan Brueckner, an economics professor at UC Irvine.

“L.A. is not such a great city for getting around,” Brueckner said. “In L.A., to get around you really need a rental car and that’s a factor that makes things more expensive, and people may encounter our famous traffic congestion, which is not pleasant.”

And while major events scheduled to be held in L.A. in the next few years — including the World Cup in 2026 and the Summer Olympics in 2028 — will draw huge numbers of visitors from abroad, they are not without their complications and risks.

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For example, efforts to resolve long-running labor disputes at dozens of L.A.-area hotels have made progress in recent months, but new contracts signed by workers are set to expire in early 2028, leaving open the possibility of labor unrest at hotels just before the Olympics.

Old hands in the tourism trade are used to that kind of uncertainty.

“You have to be prepared for anything. We could have earthquakes, riots and unrest,” said Scott Bennett, owner of Bennett’s Ice Cream, a mainstay at the Farmers Market for more than 60 years.

He recalled how during the COVID-19 lockdowns, tables and chairs were removed from the market’s patio and he had to let the shop’s 12 employees go. Instead of serving cones to customers, the store survived by Bennett selling hand-scooped pints for takeout.

Now, staffing is back, as are sales, said Bennett, who is looking forward to a hot summer. “When it’s hot, people want ice cream.”

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Burke from the tourism board, meanwhile, is hoping Bennett will hear a few more foreign languages being spoken among customers waiting in line.

“They are the golden goose of the industry,” he said of foreign tourists.

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Fast food operators rushing to use AI in the wake of minimum wage hikes

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Fast food operators rushing to use AI in the wake of minimum wage hikes

It didn’t take long for Harshraj Ghai to respond to the impact of California’s new $20 an hour minimum wage for his 3,700 fast-food employees.

Ghai and his family operate 180 Burger Kings, Taco Bells and Popeyes chicken restaurants across the state, and one of the first things they did after the law took effect April 1 was to start capping workers’ hours to avoid overtime pay. Also, they’re closing some outlets a little earlier, and opening others a bit later to avoid paying workers for less profitable periods.

But the biggest thing Ghai and his family are doing does not directly involve workers at all: They’ve speeded up and expanded their use of technology, especially AI.

Right now, they’ve moved up by several years their plans to install self-service kiosks at all of their locations, including 25 out of state.

But what has Ghai most hopeful about offsetting the higher labor costs is to have AI handle customers’ orders made at the drive-through. He’s testing the machine-learning system this month at a few locations and hopes to roll it out company-wide by this time next year.

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Drive-throughs of course are quintessentially California, with its car culture and fast lifestyle. And now, with AI coming on to the scene in a big way, the state is emerging as ground zero for what many analysts see as the next big thing in the world of fast food and drinks.

Not that AI-led drive-through is quite ready for prime time. As it is today, the system can have trouble with people’s accents and ambient noise, making it hard to recognize speech and translate it into text. Pilot programs run by McDonald’s and others thus far often have backed up the AI technology with an employee, like the Wizard of Oz man behind the curtain. The unseen worker from as far away as the Philippines monitors and sometimes intervenes to complete an order if AI falters.

Even so, Ghai thinks that once the kinks are worked out, it’ll be a godsend for fast-food operators like him.

“It has the potential of being the most impactful,” says Ghai, 39, whose Indian immigrant father, Sunny, started the family business in 1998 by buying a failing Burger King in San Jose, where he was an assistant manager.

What pushed the envelope for businesses like the Ghais’ was California’s sudden 25% hike in the minimum wage for the fast-food industry’s half-million or so workers in the state.

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To deal with the big increase in labor costs — which average about one-third of a fast-food store’s sales — many of the affected business owners immediately jacked up menu prices.

Ghai said he’s raised prices overall this year by just 2%. But that’s not been the norm. By the middle of last month, at many franchises across the state — from Jack in the Box to Chipotle to Starbucks — consumers on average were paying a mid- to high-single-digit percentage more than just a month or two earlier, according to a survey by BTIG, the investment banking and research firm.

Relatively few appear to have resorted to layoffs, in part because many were already staffed at bare-bones levels. So to hold the line on further price increases, a growing number of fast-food operators are now racing to install as much automation as they can afford.

Perhaps the most visible and soon to be widely adopted are all kinds of kiosks for ordering food. The self-service machines have been around for more than a decade, but franchise owners such as Michaela Mendelsohn resisted the move for many years.

“We just didn’t want to force our customers to use technology. We thought the personal contact was important,” said Mendelsohn, who has six El Pollo Loco restaurants in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

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But when the industry’s basic pay rose to $20 an hour, she said, that amounted to $180,000 in additional labor costs a year per store. Within a month of the wage hike, Mendelsohn bought two standing kiosks for each of her six restaurants. That set her back $25,000 per store, for two screens, installation, software and other related costs. One of the two machines accepts cash, which she said was needed for her blue-collar customers.

An L.A. Carl’s Jr. restaurant. In California, CKE Restaurants, the owner and franchisor of Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s, appears to be ahead of the pack on the use of AI technology.

(Los Angeles Times)

Mendelsohn figures that the kiosks might save five hours of labor a day. By that estimate, the machines would pay for themselves within a year and shave about 20% of the increased cost from the latest minimum wage increase. “We’re chipping away at it,” she said.

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Self-service kiosks are ubiquitous in Western Europe, but they’re in fewer than 20% of fast-food establishments in the U.S., says Perse Faily, chief executive at Los Angeles-based Tillster, one of earliest providers of kiosks and other digital platforms for restaurants.

The COVID-19 pandemic pushed the trend in the U.S., she said, and now in California, “We’re seeing this complete sea change in thinking, ‘How do I address my labor costs?’”

Kiosks may be appealing in that they can not only save on labor, but also drive higher sales. Unlike people, the programmed machines are always trying to “upsell,” never forgetting to ask customers whether they want a drink with their meal or something else to go along with their entree.

Faily, Tillster’s CEO since late 2007, wouldn’t disclose the company’s sales increase, but said its new customers include Burger King and Popeyes, and that employment at the firm is up 75 from a year ago, to 340 currently. “The minimum wage increase has completely changed the landscape,” she said.

Other computer-guided upgrades are also aimed at cutting labor costs, from automatic avocado peelers and dishwashers to robotic arms that flip burgers and turn over fryer baskets.

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But return on investments, while helpful for the bottom line, don’t do enough to offset burgeoning payroll expenses. So relatively few fast-food operators, for now, are making major investments in robotics and similar mechanical devices.

AI, on the other hand, looks like it could be a game-changer.

The pandemic boosted drive-through traffic at fast-food places to about 80% of sales from two-thirds pre-COVID, said Peter Selah, a restaurant industry analyst at BTIG. And AI order-taking opens the possibility of speeding up the drive-through process, increasing sales and reducing significant labor overhead.

But analysts say it’s likely to be at least a year or two, maybe longer, before AI-led drive-through reaches a consistent and high enough level of accuracy where companies are comfortable with it. Tests have often left frustrated customers demanding to talk to a live person rather than a bot, according to various accounts.

Major fast-food brands were reluctant to discuss their AI drive-through efforts. Nationally, McDonald’s has been out in front, using an IBM-developed system. A spokesperson would only say that McDonald’s “continues to gather learnings from the roughly 100 pilot restaurants testing automated order taking technology in the U.S. We expect to share more later this year.”

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In California, CKE Restaurants, the owner and franchisor of Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s, appears to be ahead of the pack on the technology, but like other chains, including Taco Bell, Burger King and El Pollo Loco, CKE declined to comment.

Analysts, however, say none of the AI platforms have reached more than 85% success in which human intervention isn’t needed.

“The hardest part is when you have people with accents, from different states and immigrants. It’s challenging,” said Danilo Gargiulo, senior analyst covering restaurants for Bernstein, an investment and research firm.

Still, Gargiulo sees the day when AI will speed up the drive-through line, boosting sales and consumer satisfaction. “Right now the drive-through time is slowed by repeated orders,” he said. With accurate AI speech recognition and faster, clearer communication to the kitchen staff, he said, you can cut as much as 90 seconds off what typically takes 5½ minutes for a customer to complete a drive-through purchase.

That’s what Ghai is betting on.

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He says his initial investment for the AI drive-through technology, purchased from San Carlos-based Presto, is about $10,000 per store. Ghai estimates that if he can get it to perform at 90%, a store employee might have to step in to take over an order just three times every hour, freeing up the worker to do other tasks.

The AI system is getting better as it gathers more data, he said, and it’ll soon be able to communicate in Spanish. Add in mobile apps and loyalty programs, and AI has the potential to give fast-food customers a faster and more personalized service. And of course there’s the labor saving part: Ghai thinks the AI drive-through could reduce 10 to 15 hours of wages a day, and double that where he has two human order takers.

“Our goal isn’t to get rid of people. We’re in the people business at the end of the day,” he said. At the same time, Ghai added, over the long haul, “we’ll have fewer people.”

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