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Sri Lanka Economy Has ‘Hit Rock Bottom,’ Putting Pressure on President

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Sri Lanka Economy Has ‘Hit Rock Bottom,’ Putting Pressure on President

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — Simply lentils, rice and tea with out milk. Meals are more and more meager for Sandamali Purnima, a Sri Lankan salon worker, her taxi-driver husband and their 4 younger youngsters. With cooking fuel laborious to seek out and the electrical energy minimize, she cooks this primary fare open air over wood-fed flames.

A staircase of their suburban residence results in an unfinished second ground, concrete costs too excessive to proceed.

“Constructing a home is tough,” Ms. Purnima stated. “However consuming is even tougher.”

An financial disaster is disrupting life throughout Sri Lanka, an island nation off India’s southern coast that solely not too long ago had been outperforming its neighbors.

In lower than a decade, Sri Lanka recovered from the ravages of a civil struggle that resulted in 2009, hovering to the standing of an upper-middle-income nation. It constructed a tourism-based economic system that introduced billions of {dollars}, many roles and center class comforts: high-end eateries and cafes, imported Jeeps and Audis, and upscale malls.

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Now, Sri Lankans simply need the lights to remain on.

The nation’s monumental debt load, the pandemic and, most not too long ago, the struggle in Europe have introduced it to its knees.

The central financial institution is printing rupees and hoarding {dollars}, sending inflation to a report excessive of 17.5 p.c in February. The finance minister is begging neighbors for credit score strains to purchase diesel gas and milk powder. In a barter association, the central financial institution is paying for Iranian oil with tea leaves.

For months, the federal government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has rationed energy. Sections of the capital, Colombo, go darkish all of the sudden, metropolis streets turning into as inky black because the Indian Ocean beside them.

“We’ve actually hit all-time low,” stated Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, the founder and govt director of the Colombo-based Heart for Coverage Options.

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Then he paused, and conceded that many imagine the state of affairs may get even worse. “The query on everybody’s thoughts is: When is that this going to completely crash?”

When Mr. Rajapaksa received elections in 2019, simply months after Easter Sunday terrorist assaults that killed greater than 250 individuals on the island, he had campaigned on a platform of restoring safety to the nation, relying partially on his repute as a brutal protection secretary who had helped convey Sri Lanka’s lengthy civil struggle to a detailed.

His marketing campaign additionally didn’t want to fret about identify recognition, with the Rajapaksa household being well-known to all Sri Lankans. His brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, was Sri Lanka’s wartime president — and is now the prime minister. As the highest commanders of a military accused of widespread atrocities through the civil struggle, together with indiscriminate bombings of civilians within the breakaway Jaffna Peninsula within the nation’s north, each males have been accused of struggle crimes by the households of victims and human rights teams.

Since turning into president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has solely strengthened his strongman repute, jailing opponents and dissidents.

However, because the economic system has worsened beneath his watch, the strain on him to ease the struggling is mounting.

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Two males died this week ready in lengthy strains for gas on scorching scorching days.

The availability shortages set off the biggest demonstration in Sri Lanka in years earlier this month, with a collection of candlelight vigils protesting the rampant blackouts.

The president, a former navy officer, responded by deploying troops to fuel stations on Tuesday to quell public unrest.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the coronavirus flare-up in China have disrupted provide chains and boosted the price of items globally. In Sri Lanka, nonetheless, the exterior turmoil has solely exacerbated an issue that was years within the making.

In the course of the presidency of Mahinda Rajapaksa from 2005 to 2015, Sri Lanka took on enormous quantities of pricy debt, meant to assist flip the nation into one other Singapore by constructing formidable infrastructure tasks, together with ports. However, thus far, a lot of these tasks have stalled, failing to draw the non-public funding that the federal government had hoped for.

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This saddled the following administration, led by a non-Rajapaksa president, Maithripala Sirisena, with high-interest loans. However his administration managed to transform the dear short-term loans into cheaper, longer-term debt, and constructed up overseas reserves to some $7.5 billion. Sri Lanka had a price range surplus for the primary time in 52 years.

Then Gotabaya Rajapaksa got here to energy, enacting a sweeping tax minimize simply earlier than the pandemic. Now Sri Lanka is posting unfavorable overseas property for the primary time in its historical past, and yields on its sovereign debt have soared from 7 p.c to 16 p.c.

Sri Lankans can’t entry {dollars}, which suggests it’s tough for them to journey or hedge in opposition to the quick devaluation of the native forex, the rupee. Commodities like meals and gas are both unavailable or exorbitantly priced.

The nation is actually dwelling hand-to-mouth, and more and more depending on overseas help, battering Sri Lanka’s sense of its self as a rising financial star.

India not too long ago gave Sri Lanka a $1.5 billion credit score line to tide over a gas disaster, and China is contemplating a $2.5 billion credit score line, the nation’s ambassador to Sri Lanka advised reporters this week. The federal government has even turned to poorer neighbors like Bangladesh for credit score strains.

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“We don’t have the rest to buy gas,” stated Shehan Semasinghe, a lawmaker and family economic system minister. “Our principal goal is to get gas, important items and drugs.”

And it’s not simply gas and drugs which can be in desperately brief provide, but additionally that almost all important necessity: meals.

Due to a poorly executed plan to cut back imports by going natural, Sri Lankan farmers have been wanting fertilizer this rising season, leading to an absence of the nation’s staple meals, rice. China donated 1,000,000 tons, and Sri Lanka agreed to pay an inflated worth for extra from Myanmar.

The federal government has closed embassies overseas, put prime actual property available on the market, scheduled energy cuts and transformed the {dollars} that its residents had saved in banks into Sri Lankan rupees.

However these stopgap measures by President Rajapaksa and his finance minister — one other brother, Basil Rajapaksa — are unlikely to be anyplace close to sufficient to cowl the rising pile of debt owed to China and different huge lenders, based on financial specialists.

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“Sri Lanka’s economic system is experiencing a number of organ failure, and sepsis has set in,” stated Murtaza Jafferjee, the chairman of the Advocata Institute, a suppose tank in Colombo.

Rankings companies have downgraded Sri Lanka’s debt by a number of notches, and buyers are betting on a default.

The federal government has responded to the rankings company downgrades and dour analyses with a mixture of indignation, disbelief and denial, initially resisting calls to hunt assist from the Worldwide Financial Fund.

Basil Rajapaksa, nonetheless, relented earlier this month, saying that the nation would work with the I.M.F.

Officers are betting that an enormous upturn in tourism, earnings from which have been down 62 p.c in December from the yr earlier than, can proper the nation’s steadiness sheet.

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“We all know that this problem that we’re dealing with is principally due to the tourism receipts not being there. If the tourism receipts had been there, however the Covid debacle, no person would have been speaking about I.M.F.,” stated Sri Lanka’s central financial institution governor, Ajith Nivard Cabraal.

Many much less optimistic ministers have been sacked by the Rajapaksa administration.

With its creditworthiness shot, the federal government is shopping for oil and fuel at spot costs, that’s, the going fee as container ships pull into port. Lately, as a tanker docked exterior Colombo, the worth of its diesel cargo elevated from $35 million to $50 million.

Because the financial ache intensifies, the political opposition to the Rajapaksas senses a chance.

Earlier this month, Sajith Premadasa, the opposition lawmaker who misplaced the 2019 election to Mr. Rajapaksa, organized an illustration that roiled Colombo. Tens of hundreds of protesters marched to the president’s workplace demanding that he resign, sporting head scarves in Sinhala, Tamil and English that learn, “Gota, go,” referring to the president’s nickname.

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At one other current protest, Ms. Purnima, 42, joined dozens of different girls who marched to the presidential mansion in Colombo protesting in opposition to the frequent energy cuts, disappearance of cooking fuel and milk powder, and rising prices of contemporary meals.

“Life may be very tough now,” she stated.

Aanya Wipulasena contributed reporting.

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Disney's streaming business is profitable for the first time, but its parks unit lags

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Disney's streaming business is profitable for the first time, but its parks unit lags

After years of losses totaling billions of dollars, Walt Disney Co.’s overall streaming business has reached profitability for the first time. Third-quarter results, however, were tempered by weakening demand at the company’s key parks unit.

The Burbank media and entertainment giant reported Wednesday that its streaming business — which includes Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ — took in about $6.4 billion in revenue for its fiscal third quarter, up 15% compared with a year earlier.

The streaming business notched $47 million in operating income, compared with a loss of $512 million a year earlier. During the most recent quarter, ESPN+ helped boost Disney’s streaming business over the profitability hump, at a time when Disney+ and Hulu saw an operating loss of $19 million.

The milestone comes one fiscal quarter earlier than Disney executives had anticipated.

“What we’ve been seeing with streaming is significant success largely driven by the success of our creativity,” chief executive Bob Iger said during a Wednesday morning call with analysts. “We’re bullish about the future of this business.”

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Achieving profitability in Disney’s streaming business has been a top priority for Iger, who earlier this year held off activist investor Nelson Peltz in a proxy fight. Among other things, Peltz demanded that Disney show a realistic plan for achieving large margins of profitability in its streaming business. To reach that goal, Iger undertook a wide-ranging cost-cutting effort across the company, which slashed thousands of jobs.

Company executives said product and technology improvements in its streaming services would pay dividends going forward. They mentioned that bundling packages, such as the recent deal Disney reached with Warner Bros. Discovery to offer Disney+, Hulu and Max for one price, has helped reduce subscriber churn, while the company’s early efforts to crack down on password sharing have not faced significant backlash.

Overall, the company generated revenue of $23.1 billion during the fiscal third quarter, up 4% year over year. Earnings, excluding certain items, were $1.39 per share, up from $1.03 a year earlier and higher than analysts’ estimates.

The company’s studios business also contributed to the quarterly results, led by the success of Pixar’s “Inside Out 2.”

Disney’s entertainment division reported revenue of about $10.6 billion, up 4% year over year. Operating income for the segment totaled $1.2 billion, up from $408 million in the previous year. (The interest in “Inside Out 2” also drove viewers to Disney+, as the company said viewers’ desire to watch 2015’s “Inside Out” helped lead to more than 1.3 million sign-ups for the streaming service. Iger said the company is seeing similar trends with the previous “Deadpool” and “Planet of the Apes” movies.)

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Revenue for Disney’s sports business, which includes ESPN, increased 5% to about $4.5 billion, though the segment saw operating income of $802 million, down 6%. Domestic ESPN ad revenue rose 17% year over year, but it wasn’t enough to offset the $314-million operating loss from Disney’s Star India business, which saw higher programming and production costs due to the timing of the ICC T20 cricket World Cup.

It was a more muted quarter for the company’s experiences division, which includes its amusement parks and cruise line, as well as merchandise.

The division dominated the company’s financial results in recent fiscal quarters, aided in part by pent-up demand for travel since the pandemic. But for the most recent quarter, the division reported operating income of $2.2 billion, down 3% from last year.

Disney said the decrease in operating income was due to softening consumer demand. Results from the company’s U.S.-based parks decreased “modestly,” though year-over-year attendance was comparable and per-capita spending was “slightly up,” the company said.

The group brought in about $8.4 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter, up 2% year over year.

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The company expects to see “flat-ish” revenue for its experiences division in the fourth quarter and for several quarters after that, Hugh Johnston, chief financial officer, said on the Wednesday call. Disney cited the Olympics’ effect on attendance at Disneyland Paris, as well as “cyclical softening” in China as factors for fourth-quarter results.

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Google loses major antitrust case over search, declared a monopoly by judge

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Google loses major antitrust case over search, declared a monopoly by judge

In a major blow to Google, a federal judge on Monday ruled that the tech giant violated antitrust laws by illegally maintaining a monopoly on web searches.

The much-anticipated decision marks a significant victory for federal regulators trying to rein in the power of Big Tech and could send shock waves through the tech world. Other firms, including Apple, Meta and Amazon, also face federal antitrust lawsuits.

“After having carefully considered and weighed the witness testimony and evidence, the court reaches the following conclusion: Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly,” U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta wrote in his opinion.

The ruling did not include a remedy for Google’s conduct.

Kent Walker, president of Google Global Affairs, said in a statement that the company plans to appeal.

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“This decision recognizes that Google offers the best search engine, but concludes that we shouldn’t be allowed to make it easily available,” he said. “As this process continues, we will remain focused on making products that people find helpful and easy to use.”

Regulators alleged that Google maintained a monopoly on web searches by reaching agreements with browser developers, phone manufacturers and wireless carriers to pre-load their products with the Google search engine as the default.

By agreeing to partner with Google, the companies receive a portion of the advertising revenue Google generates through the search process, the ruling said.

In 2021, Google paid out a total of $26.3 billion in revenue share under its contracts with browser developers Apple and Mozilla, major manufacturers of Android devices such as Samsung and Motorola, and U.S. wireless carriers including AT&T and Verizon, according to the ruling.

That amount was Google’s greatest expense that year, the ruling said. That same year, Google earned more than $146 billion in advertising revenue, according to the ruling.

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“These distribution deals have forced Google’s rivals to find other ways to reach users,” the ruling said.

The Mountain View-based subsidiary of Alphabet Inc. has increasingly cornered the market for web searching. In 2009, 80% of U.S. web searches went through Google. By 2020, that figure was nearly 90%, according to the ruling. Almost 95% of mobile searches used Google.

Google’s next closest competitor — Microsoft’s Bing — took up just 6% of web searches, the ruling said.

This dominance of the search market caught the attention of antitrust regulators, and by 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice and multiple state attorneys general had filed two separate lawsuits against the tech giant.

During the course of legal proceedings, dozens of witnesses were deposed, including high-ranking tech executives. The bench trial started in September 2023 and lasted for nine weeks. Closing arguments occurred in May.

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It’s not yet clear what the ruling will mean for Google, particularly since the company plans to appeal and there will be further proceedings about potential remedies.

“We’re still in the middle of the game, as opposed to the end of the game,” said Colin Kass, a partner in the litigation department at Proskauer and co-head of the firm’s antitrust group.

But if the ruling stands, it could force Google to revisit how it does deals with outside companies for the opportunity to be the default search engine, said Jef Pearlman, clinical professor of law and director of the intellectual property and technology law clinic at the USC Gould School of Law.

“If it stands, this will limit their current approach,” he said.

The ruling is less likely to have an effect on the other pending tech federal antitrust cases, mostly because the Google case focuses so narrowly on the market for web searches, which is not relevant to the other lawsuits, legal experts said.

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But it could serve as a warning for artificial intelligence companies, which are starting to make deals with outside companies to use their technology and could run into similar issues as Google did with its default search engine agreements.

Though the AI market is still nascent, “they will be thinking of this as they pen those deals,” Pearlman said.

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Sell-off on Wall Street: Why it is happening and what it says about the economy

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Sell-off on Wall Street: Why it is happening and what it says about the economy

It’s nail-biting time on Wall Street.

Stocks had been dropping at worrisome rates for several days, but on Monday things went from concerning to panicky. At one point, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 1,200 points, on a day when equity markets tumbled across the globe. It closed down 1,034 points, or 2.6%.

Technology stocks have been hit particularly hard lately: The Nasdaq composite was, for a moment on Monday, down more than 10% since the middle of last week, entering into what economists euphemistically call “correction” territory.

The sudden pullback has jolted investors and raised questions that go beyond financial markets to questions about the underlying health of the economy.

And even when things level out, the window-rattling downturn threatened to kill the political euphoria that has swept over Democrats since President Biden withdrew and Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the party’s standard-bearer.

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So what’s happened and what may be next? Here are first-draft-of-history answers to some of the crucial questions:

What’s causing the current plunge in U.S. stock markets?

Economists point to several factors behind the sell-off. To begin with, tech stocks were overdone, pushed beyond their underlying value by the artificial intelligence craze. Hence the Nasdaq correction. Nvidia, Apple and Intel were among big losers Monday.

And Friday’s jobs report, which showed a sharp slowdown in hiring and unemployment in July, set investors — even those not deep into tech — on edge. That came on the heels of news that jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, increased significantly in the waning days of July.

It hasn’t helped that the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to start cutting interest rates, which have throttled inflation as intended, but also weighed down businesses and consumers.

Then there’s the reverberation from global markets. On Monday, Japan’s once-high-flying stocks took their worst drubbing since Black Monday in 1987. The huge losses were seen, in part, as being a reaction to market declines and growing concerns in the U.S.

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“It’s an unfortunate sequence of events that causes selling, selling, selling,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a research house in New York.

How have stock markets in the U.S. performed overall this year?

Even with Monday’s panic-selling, stocks generally are up for the year, many way up.

Both the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq are still more than 9% higher compared with the start of the year. The Dow is the laggard, up only 2.6% since Jan. 2.

Stocks have benefited from strong corporate earnings; investor excitement over AI’s growth and potential; and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“This is still, at this point, a garden-variety correction,” Zandi said of the current turmoil, though he added that the situation warrants careful watching. “Things can take on a life of their own.”

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Should I be worried about a recession?

Not yet, maybe never.

The classical definition of a recession is two straight quarters of declining gross domestic product. The latest, second-quarter GDP, after adjusting for inflation, was a strong 2.8%.

Almost every economist agrees that you can’t have a recession without job growth turning negative for some extended period. And the U.S. economy hasn’t come close to that point.

Employers have added jobs every month since January 2021, when the economy began to recover from the pandemic. Most recently, in July, job growth came in below expectations, but at 114,000 new payroll hires, that was still solidly positive.

“I don’t see the underpinnings of an economic downturn,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer and founding partner at Cresset Capital.

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Can anything be done to arrest the decline in stocks?

To quell the sell-off, some investors have urged the Fed to cut interest rates now, in a kind of emergency move ahead of the central bank’s next scheduled meeting in mid-September.

Fed officials have taken such steps before, during the pandemic and the Great Recession, for example. But analysts doubt that the policymakers will intervene unless markets keep faltering badly; making an emergency cut could make things worse by frightening people and causing a market meltdown.

“It’s certainly not a hair-on-fire moment,” Zandi said.

What are the risks going forward?

With more people on edge about the economy, further declines in the stock market could erode confidence among businesses and consumers, leading to a pullback in hiring and spending. That would be a psychological development, but economies are not immune to the fears or the hopes of their human components.

Consumer spending, which drives the U.S. economy, has held up very well in recent years, thanks to steady job and wage growth. But there are indications from companies such as McDonald’s and Starbucks that consumers are becoming more cautious.

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Higher-income households account for a disproportionately big share of spending, which has been supported by rising gains in home and stock prices. A sharp drop in stocks would have the reverse impact, a so-called negative wealth effect, making richer households more averse to spending, which could lead to a recession.

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