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Should You Get a Heat Pump? Take Our 2-Question Quiz.

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Should You Get a Heat Pump? Take Our 2-Question Quiz.

Air source heat pumps are made up of an outside unit and an inside unit. They can also be hooked up to ducts, like a furnace.

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Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US (METUS)

Heat pumps are the future of home heating. They’re essentially two-way air-conditioners that use electricity to heat in the winter — as well as cool in the summer — and are typically far more efficient than other systems. They reduce household greenhouse gas emissions significantly.

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They may also save you money on your monthly bills if you own a home. Answer just two questions below and we’ll give you a rough estimate:

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What do you heat with currently?

Where do you live?

Answer the two questions and we’ll see how much you can save. Or, keep reading.

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Don’t know what a heat pump is? You may already have seen one. It looks a lot like a typical air-conditioner, with a big box that sits just outside a house; inside, you might see small boxes mounted to the wall, or a single large indoor unit, out of sight, connected to vents.

In winter, heat pumps transfer heat from outside to inside. (Even in very cold temperatures, it’s still possible to extract heat from the air outside.) In summer, they do the opposite.

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Because of how efficiently they do this, heat pumps are a critical piece of the green energy transition: One estimate suggests putting a heat pump in every home could reduce U.S. emissions by 5 to 9 percent.

They’re expensive to install but often qualify for subsidies. And they can save some homeowners hundreds or thousands of dollars each year by lowering their utility bills, for both heating and cooling.

But that’s not yet true for everyone, everywhere.

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Share of households that would…

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These numbers, and the information in the quiz above, come from a New York Times analysis that combines data on fuel and electricity costs around the country with estimates of how much energy it takes to heat many different kinds of houses, from research done by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

More than 80 percent of U.S. households would probably see their bills go down if they installed a heat pump.

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But the rest would probably end up with higher bills — mostly people who use natural gas right now, given its low cost.

Nearly all households heating with propane, fuel oil or older electric forms of heating would save money by switching to a heat pump, but only about two-thirds of those currently on natural gas would.

How you currently heat is one major factor in your potential savings; the others are where you live and how the cost of electricity compares with other fuels in your area.

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For households that currently heat with expensive fuels like propane and fuel oil, a heat pump is almost always a good bet. This is why Maine, which relies on fuel oil, has become a big adopter.

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Median annual change in all utility bills represented. Uses 2023 state-level fuel prices. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock and EIA data.

And a heat pump is significantly more efficient than electric furnaces or baseboards. The savings are biggest in the parts of the country that stay colder, longer. But there’s money to be saved in the South, too, in both the mild winters and the hot summers: South Carolina and Florida have some of the current highest rates of heat pump usage.

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Median annual change in all utility bills represented. Uses 2023 state-level fuel prices. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock and E.I.A. data.

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For households that currently heat with less expensive natural gas, however, the financial picture is much more mixed. Whether you save — or lose — depends heavily on your geography. And the savings are often smaller.

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Median annual change in all utility bills represented. Uses 2023 state-level fuel prices. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock and EIA data.

In the South, electricity is relatively cheap, and temperatures are mild. That makes switching from natural gas to a heat pump an easier sell. Modern heat pumps work in very cold temperatures, but they operate at their highest efficiency during mild weather.

In colder parts of the country, heat pumps are somewhat less efficient. They also give you central cooling, which can raise prices in the summer if you relied on fans before.

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But the biggest problem in the North isn’t the weather — it’s the difference between the cost of electricity and the cost of gas.

On average, a heat pump is three to four times as efficient as a natural gas furnace. That means if electricity is only twice as expensive as natural gas for the same amount of energy, a heat pump is a good deal — as is the case in Georgia. But when electricity is five times as expensive as gas, as in Michigan, it’s a much harder sell.

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Ratio of electricity to natural gas cost, for the same amount of energy

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Compares approximate cost per equivalent unit of energy, after accounting for fixed monthly charges. 2023 prices. Source: NYT analysis of Energy Information Administration data

These are just averages, and other factors will influence your actual financial picture. For one, prices for both electricity and gas vary a lot within states. Rates in some places can also change depending on the time of day or the season, and some utilities offer lower rates specifically for heat pump customers. We also can’t know exactly how prices will rise or fall next year — we can only make guesses based on previous years’ costs.

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Your choice should also take into account how well insulated your house is; whether you have solar panels; the efficiency level of the heat pump you’re considering; and whether you keep your boiler or furnace as a backup in colder temperatures, known as a “dual fuel” setup. Many households even in colder parts of the country, with high electricity costs, could still see savings from a heat pump. These are all things our calculations can’t help you with. The only way to be certain is to ask a contractor. (Ideally more than one.)

How long you’re going to stay in your house is important too: Heat pumps have high upfront costs, sometimes twice as much as that of a new gas furnace. Many states and utilities offer rebates to help: Massachusetts homeowners can get $10,000. (Republicans in Congress ended a federal tax credit that gave $2,000 or more toward a heat pump installation, though heat pumps installed this year still qualify.)

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And if you already have central air for cooling, a heat pump is more likely to make financial sense. Installing one may be more expensive than replacing your furnace — or your central air-conditioning — but it can be cheaper than replacing both.

Despite their price tags, heat pumps have outsold furnaces for three years running, according to data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.

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Heating units sold in the U.S.

Meanwhile, summers are getting hotter. If you don’t have central air yet, you might want it at some point.

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And if you’re thinking about climate change in addition to your finances, switching to a heat pump will cut most houses’ carbon emissions significantly.

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Median household emissions reduction from installing a heat pump

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Uses NREL’s mid-case emissions scenario. Reduction includes CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. Source: NYT analysis of NREL ResStock data.

In some very cold places, the emission reductions are huge: The median house in Minnesota could emit around five fewer tons of carbon each year by switching to a high-efficiency heat pump, according to modeled data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. That’s a greater reduction than if you went car-free for a year (if you drive a gas car). And it’s around one-third of the average U.S. resident’s greenhouse gas emissions in a year.

Paradoxically, some of the places where a heat pump could slash emissions the most — including parts of the Northeast and Midwest — are the places where it could be a financial detriment right now. Still, for some, paying a little extra to reduce their carbon footprint might be worth it.

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About the data

Cost calculations use a 2024 dataset from ResStock, a model of the U.S. housing stock by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). ResStock contains estimates of the amount of energy it would take to heat and cool houses with an original heating source and with a heat pump. Houses that currently have a heat pump were excluded.

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The dataset includes homes that did not have central cooling before the heat pump, which raises costs after the transition. It also relies on weather data collected from 1991 to 2005.

For electricity and natural gas prices, the Upshot used 2023 state-level sales, revenue and customer data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and prior NREL research to calculate the cost per unit of energy. For propane and heating oil, the Upshot used EIA data from 2023 on state-by-state prices, or a national average if data was missing.

The Upshot assigned a basic Energy Star heat pump (SEER2 15.2, HSPF2 7.8) to houses in warmer climates and a higher-efficiency cold climate heat pump (SEER2 19, HSP2 9.8) to colder areas. Both have supplemental electric heating.

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For county-level results, the Upshot used county-only data when there were at least 50 houses using that fuel in that county, and state-level medians when there were fewer.

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Testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes could be mandatory. What to know

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Testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes could be mandatory. What to know

When the January 2025 firestorms swept through Altadena and Pacific Palisades they not only burned down homes but left thousands still standing riddled with smoke damage.

The disaster set the stage for lawsuits by fire victims who alleged their homes were filled with toxic contaminants, yet insurers refused to do hygienic testing and properly clean and make them habitable again.

This week, a much-anticipated bill was unveiled in the Legislature that would establish first-in-the-nation limits for smoke-damage contaminants, require testing and force insurers to restore homes to their prior condition.

The proposed law specifically applies to homes damaged in urban or “wildland-urban interface” fires — such as those in January 2025 — where burning structures, cars, utilities and other items generate more toxins than a rural wildfire.

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Authored by Assemblymember Mike Gipson (D-Carson) and sponsored by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, Assembly Bill 1795 follows similar legislation introduced by Assemblymember John Harabedian (D-Pasadena).

That bill would apply to homes, schools and workplaces — and their properties — requiring insurers to meet existing health standards for lead and asbestos cleanup, while having the state develop additional ones for other contaminants.

Lara’s bill also follows a report issued last week by a smoke-damage task force he established last year, which established the framework for the bill. However, consumer advocates said it was stacked with members tied to the insurance industry.

Lara, who has been asked to step down by critics over his handling of insurers’ claims practices, has defended the task force and his handling of the wildfires, noting his department is investigating insurers.

Here’s what to know about the legislation, which still must go through legislative hearings before an Assembly vote.

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Why is this bill a big deal?

Under the current system, insurers are not required to pay for expensive hygienic testing for toxins in smoke-damaged homes. That has been a big source of friction with fire victims, fueling the ongoing litigation over the matter.

Under the bill, however, insurers would be required to cover testing for lead, asbestos and other contaminants that have been found in soot, char and ash inside homes after a wildfire. Such testing would be required both before and after any cleanup work has begun to ensure the home is left in “preloss” condition. Additionally, it sets timelines for claims payments and prohibits insurers from halting payments for temporary housing until a home is cleared as safe, if a state of emergency has been declared.

Who will determine what levels of various contaminants are safe?

The bill requires the California Environmental Protection Agency to develop minimum sampling, testing and chemical screening levels by June 30, 2027. The requirements would be most rigorous in a “high-impact” zone within six miles of a fire perimeter, with potentially lesser requirements for residences as they get further away. The zones and testing requirements could be adjusted for specific fires.

The agency also is required to establish training standards and certification requirements for inspectors and others involved in the testing and restoration of properties.

How does this help the January 2025 fire victims?

More than 40,000 insurance claims have been filed as a result of the Eaton and Palisades fires, with more than 13,000 for smoke damage.

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The bill allows the EPA, state and local agencies to establish expedited “interim” standards. Insurance department spokesman Michael Soller said this provision was written with the January 2025 fires in mind.

What do consumer advocates say?

They generally support the proposed changes. Amy Bach, executive director for United Policyholders in San Francisco, who sat on the smoke task force and was critical of its makeup, said she was pleased that the bill “acknowledges the perspectives of the homeowners and will advance their interests in an important way.” But she expects insurers will complain it’s too costly and threaten to leave the state if the bill is not toned down.

Attorney Dylan Schaffer, who has sued the California Fair Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, over its smoke-damage practices, said the bill was a “very strong nod in the right direction” though it will be the final standards established by the state for testing and cleanup that will be most important. “It always gets down to the details,” he said.

What is the industry’s reaction?

The insurance industry is expected to lobby for changes to the bill, suggesting it could impose burdensome costs on companies.

Karen Collins, a vice president of the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn., said that “insurers support science‑based approaches to evaluating smoke damage and guiding appropriate remediation” but want to “help ensure the bill strikes a reasonable balance — protecting consumers while preserving insurance affordability, availability, and market stability.”

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Rex Frazier, president of the Personal Insurance Federation of California, an industry group representing state property and casualty insurers, also said the bill lacks analysis of the “tradeoffs” between the higher claims payments that will result from it and and its effect on consumer premiums.

He also was concerned that the bill appears to bypass traditional rule-making procedures and allow the state EPA to establish the toxic contaminant and other standards without public hearings.

Soller said the intent of the bill is to allow the agency to forgo hearings only in developing interim standards.

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San Diego County agency selling water to keep its high rates in check

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San Diego County agency selling water to keep its high rates in check

San Diego County’s water agency is selling some of its water to another Southern California agency to help limit increasingly high water costs for 3.3 million people.

The water is going to Western Municipal Water District, which serves a growing area of nearly 1 million people in Riverside County, including Corona, Riverside and Temecula.

The San Diego County Water Authority will transfer at least 10,000 acre-feet of water per year over the next 21 years, enough for about 30,000 typical households.

The agencies said the deal will be worth about $100 million over the first five years.

The San Diego County agency has invested heavily to get more water in recent decades. In 2003, it struck an agriculture-to-urban transfer deal and it also buys water from the Carlsbad desalination plant under a 30-year agreement. These actions have brought San Diego County plentiful water — also some of the most expensive in the state. At the same time, conservation efforts in San Diego County have reduced water needs.

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The San Diego County Water Authority delivers water to 22 cities and other agencies. Last year its board approved raising wholesale water rates 8.3%, which drew criticism from residents who said they were already struggling to afford their water bills.

Board Chair Nick Serrano said the deal “allows us to maximize the value of the investments San Diego County residents made over decades, strengthen water reliability, and do so in a way that is mindful of affordability.”

The two agencies said in a joint statement on Thursday that for Western Municipal, the additional water will help during drought and ensure reliable water without the cost and time involved in developing new water infrastructure projects.

The water will move from one area to the other through the pipelines of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the regional wholesaler that imports water from the Colorado River and Northern California. Both San Diego County and Western Municipal are members of the MWD.

An agreement between the MWD and the San Diego County Water Authority last year ended a 15-year legal battle over water costs and cleared the way for San Diego County to start selling some of its excess water to areas that need it.

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Gasoline price gouging in California draws a warning

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Gasoline price gouging in California draws a warning

California’s petroleum market watchdog is warning about price gouging at some gas stations charging over $7 or even $8 a gallon as the Iran war sends oil prices soaring.

The average price of gas in California is currently $5.66, but as of Friday, a Chevron station in Essex is charging $9.69, another in Los Angeles’ Chinatown is charging $8.71, and one in Vidal Junction is charging $7.79, according to GasBuddy, which tracks prices across the country.

“Our team is vigilantly monitoring the retail, wholesale, and spot markets,” said Tai Milder, director of the California Energy Commission Division of Petroleum Market Oversight, in a statement. “Any reports of unfair practices or market manipulation will be taken seriously, and we will not hesitate to refer any illegal conduct for further investigation and prosecution.”

Gas prices have jumped some 30% nationally since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran three weeks ago and Iran blocked 20% of the global oil supply. Californians, who already faced prices over $1 per gallon higher than the national average, are especially feeling the squeeze.

The extremely high prices at some gas stations in California “are not supported by current crude oil prices or gasoline futures,” the division said.

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California’s oil and gas watchdog division was created in 2023 to provide greater insight into the state’s petroleum market after summer gas price spikes exceeded $6 per gallon two years in a row.

The state consistently sees the highest fuel prices in the country due to state taxes and fees, environmental programs, a cleaner fuel blend requirement and an isolated petroleum market, where 80% of gasoline comes from in-state refineries.

This isolation makes California gas prices more sensitive to refinery outages and market manipulation. In 2024 the division reported that, after accounting for environmental rules and taxes, Californians still pay an extra 41 cents more per gallon and the largest share of that goes to industry profit. They also found that the price spikes of the previous two years were caused by refineries going offline without backup supply and “potentially manipulative trading” in those under-supply conditions.

Lawmakers and regulators have been more quiet about price gouging of late and the energy commission put a decision to impose a profit cap on refiners on hold after a series of refinery closures raised concerns about future fuel supply shortages.

Jamie Court, the president of the nonprofit ratepayer advocacy group Consumer Watchdog, said the fact that the gap between national and California prices has widened since the start of the war is evidence of price gouging.

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“We know they made 49 cents per gallon in January,” said Court, of the refineries. “We know now that their margins are closer to $1.25 per gallon,” he said, citing the group’s analysis of state and Oil Price Information Service data.

Chevron said in a statement that most of its gas stations are owned and operated by independent business people who are “free to set the retail price of fuel and other products.”

“Those costs are generally determined by fundamental economic forces like demand, supply and competition,” said spokesperson Ross Allen, who added that crude oil prices, which make up the bulk of gas prices, have gone up but California’s taxes and environmental fees can also add over $1.20 a gallon.

Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Shell did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

The petroleum oversight agency said it reached out to stations where pricing appears “excessive and disproportionate to increases in those sellers’ costs” including “multiple stations in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties, in addition to multiple stations in Northern California” since the war began.

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It also encouraged Californians “to shop around and compare prices between name-brand and unbranded (or generic) gasoline.”

“While retailers typically charge more for branded gasoline, all gasoline sold in California must meet the state’s high standards for emissions control and engine performance,” read the statement.

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