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Maps: Where Trump Voter Jobs Will Be Hit by Tariffs

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Maps: Where Trump Voter Jobs Will Be Hit by Tariffs

The counties where tariffs could hit jobs, by presidential vote winner

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Source: New York Times analysis of data from Lightcast and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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Note: Vote results are for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Data not available for Alaska.

As President Trump imposes tariffs on products from countries around the world, foreign governments are answering back with tariffs of their own.

China has targeted corn farmers and carmakers. Canada has put tariffs on poultry plants and air-conditioning manufacturers, while Europe will hit American steel mills and slaughter houses.

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Since Mr. Trump ordered steep levies on some of America’s largest trading partners in February and March, other countries have begun imposing their own tariffs on American exports in an attempt to put pressure on the president to relent.

The retaliatory tariffs have been carefully designed to hit Mr. Trump where it hurts: Nearly 8 million Americans work in industries targeted by the levies and the majority are Trump voters, a New York Times analysis shows.

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The figures underscore the dramatic impact that a trade war could have on American workers, potentially causing Mr. Trump’s economic strategy to backfire. Mr. Trump has argued that tariffs will help boost American jobs. But economists say that retaliatory tariffs can cancel out that effect.

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Number of jobs affected by each country’s retaliatory tariffs

Source: New York Times analysis of data from Lightcast and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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Note: Industries were targeted in more than one round and by more than one country, so there is overlap in the number of jobs affected. Note: Data not available for Alaska.

The countermeasures are aimed at industries that employ roughly 7.75 million people across the United States. The bulk of those — 4.48 million — are in counties that voted for Mr. Trump in the last election, compared with 3.26 million jobs in counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a calculation by The Times that included examining retaliatory tariffs on more than 4,000 product categories.

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These totals are the number of jobs in industries that foreign countries have targeted with their tariffs — not the number of jobs that will actually be lost because of tariffs, which is likely to be significantly lower. But industries hit by retaliatory tariffs are likely to sell fewer goods on foreign markets, which may mean lower profits and job losses.

The jobs that could be hit by retaliation are especially concentrated in pockets of the upper Midwest, South and Southeast, including many rural parts of the country that are responsible for producing agricultural goods. It also includes areas that produce coal, oil, car parts and other manufactured products.

Robert Maxim, a fellow at the Brookings Metro, a Washington think tank that has done similar analysis, said that other countries had particularly targeted Trump-supporting regions and places where “Trump would like to fashion himself as revitalizing the U.S.” That includes smaller manufacturing communities in states like Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan, as well as southern states like Kentucky and Georgia, he said.

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The message foreign countries are trying to send, he said, is, “You think you can bully us, well, we can hurt you too. And by the way, we know where it really matters.”

Retaliation may also mean concentrated pain for some industries, like farming. In Mr. Trump’s first term, American farmers – a strong voting bloc for the president – were targeted by China and other governments, which caused U.S. exports of soybeans and other crops to plummet.

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Chinese buyers shifted to purchasing more agricultural goods from nations like Argentina and Brazil instead, and U.S. farmers had a difficult time winning back those contracts in subsequent years. Mr. Trump tried to offset those losses by giving farmers more than $20 billion in payments to compensate for the pain of the trade war.

One analysis published last year by economists at M.I.T., the World Bank and elsewhere found that retaliatory tariffs imposed on the United States during Mr. Trump’s first term had a negative effect on U.S. jobs, outweighing any benefit to employment from Mr. Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods or from the subsidies Mr. Trump provided to those hurt by his trade policies.

The net effect on American employment of U.S. tariffs, foreign tariffs and subsidies “was at best a wash, and it may have been mildly negative,” the economists concluded.

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Rural parts of the country are once again at risk from retaliation. Agriculture is a major U.S. export and farmers are politically important to Mr. Trump. And rural counties may have one major employer — like a poultry processing plant — that provides a big share of the county’s jobs, compared with urban or suburban areas that are more diversified.

The retaliatory tariffs target industries employing 9.5 percent of people in Wisconsin, 8.5 percent of people in Indiana and 8.4 percent of people in Iowa. The shares are also relatively high in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky and Kansas.

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Share of jobs in targeted industries in each state

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Wisconsin Wis. 9.5% 298,600
Indiana Ind. 8.5% 289,900
Iowa Iowa 8.4% 146,500
Arkansas Ark. 8.2% 115,800
Alabama Ala. 8.1% 186,800
Mississippi Miss. 8.0% 101,600
Kentucky Ky. 7.6% 167,500
Kansas Kan. 7.0% 113,200
Michigan Mich. 6.8% 319,300
Tennessee Tenn. 6.5% 231,500
Ohio Ohio 6.3% 366,800
South Carolina S.C. 6.2% 152,500
West Virginia W.Va. 6.1% 44,800
Minnesota Minn. 6.0% 188,300
Missouri Mo. 5.9% 170,100
Georgia Ga. 5.7% 301,500
Nebraska Neb. 5.7% 63,800
South Dakota S.D. 5.6% 29,800
Maine Maine 5.5% 39,500
Pennsylvania Pa. 5.5% 347,100
Vermont Vt. 5.4% 18,600
Idaho Idaho 5.3% 51,100
North Carolina N.C. 5.3% 281,300
Illinois Ill. 5.2% 334,600
Rhode Island R.I. 5.1% 27,500
Connecticut Conn. 5.0% 75,300
North Dakota N.D. 5.0% 24,400
Washington Wash. 4.9% 194,900
Oklahoma Okla. 4.8% 91,500
Oregon Ore. 4.7% 103,300
Alaska Alaska 4.6% 17,400

No data available

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New Hampshire N.H. 4.5% 32,500
Utah Utah 4.3% 81,400
Wyoming Wyo. 4.1% 13,000
Texas Texas 4.0% 606,400
Louisiana La. 4.0% 85,100
Virginia Va. 3.8% 168,600
California Calif. 3.6% 730,200
Delaware Del. 3.6% 18,400
New Jersey N.J. 3.4% 151,200
Montana Mont. 3.1% 18,100
Colorado Colo. 3.0% 97,300
Arizona Ariz. 3.0% 104,400
Nevada Nev. 2.9% 49,400
Massachusetts Mass. 2.9% 115,800
Florida Fla. 2.3% 247,300
New Mexico N.M. 2.3% 22,200
Maryland Md. 2.2% 64,800
New York N.Y. 1.8% 281,000
Hawaii Hawaii 1.2% 8,900

Source: New York Times analysis of data from Lightcast and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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The New York Times

In an address to Congress earlier this month, Mr. Trump implied that farmers could be hit again, saying there may be “an adjustment period” as he put tariffs in place on foreign products. There may be “a little disturbance,” he said. “We are OK with that. It won’t be much.”

Mr. Trump said he had told farmers in his first term to “‘Just bear with me,’ and they did. They did. Probably have to bear with me again,” he said.

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Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings Metro, said that many of the counties affected by retaliation were rural, and “hard red territory.” The geography of Mr. Trump’s political support, he said, was “no secret to our trade partners.”

“They’re very cognizant of these industries, the geography of these industries, and how American politics work,” he added.

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Methodology

The analysis was based on an analytical technique used by the Brookings Institution to examine the first round of Chinese retaliatory tariffs.

To expand on the analysis, The Times collected the lists of U.S. products targeted for retaliatory tariffs by China, Canada and the European Union as of March 14. In total, the six published lists contain more than 4,000 individual product categories, many of which were targeted by more than one country. The tariffs from China and Canada are currently in force. One set of tariffs from the European Union is scheduled to go into effect April 1, while the other set is preliminary, and is subject to change until its implementation in mid-April.

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After collecting the list of products, The Times used a concordance table from the Census Bureau, which provides a way to tie a given product category to the general industry which produces it.

To tally the number of jobs, The Times used data from Lightcast, a labor market analytics company. Lightcast provided The Times with industry-level employment data based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The quarterly census suppresses employment data for industries at the county level to protect the privacy of employers when there are only a handful of establishments. Lightcast uses a proprietary algorithm that draws from a number of related datasets to estimate the employment level for fields that are suppressed in the census.

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County election results are from The Associated Press.

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Battered by ICE raids, L.A.’s Fashion District desperately needs Black Friday miracle

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Battered by ICE raids, L.A.’s Fashion District desperately needs Black Friday miracle

Lizzie Osorio remembers customers flooding Lion Boots in early May, browsing embroidered shoes and tasseled suede dresses.

Beyoncé had four concerts scheduled in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium for her Cowboy Carter tour. So the store tucked in Santee Alley, where 24-year-old Osorio works selling cowboy boots and other Western-style clothing, was the perfect stop for fans.

Osorio expected, or perhaps hoped, the store would see similar traffic at the start of the Thanksgiving holiday week.

After the tumult of President Trump’s immigration crackdown, that remains to be seen. Over the summer, several raids in the neighborhood sparked protests. But the mass arrests and fears of deportation turned the Fashion District into a ghost town for several weeks after, with storefronts shuttered and frightened workers staying home.

The story was the same in other business districts that cater to immigrants. Although conditions have improved in recent months, merchants are still feeling the pain and in desperate need of a holiday retail miracle.

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Shoppers stroll through the Santee Alley in downtown’s Fashion District where business owners are working to recover from losses caused by recent immigration enforcement.

Local officials and activists are encouraging people to shop on Black Friday and beyond, including by holding a festival over the weekend. But it remains unclear how many will feel safe enough to come out.

Some merchants are “living sale to sale, customer to customer,” said Anthony Rodriguez, president of the Fashion District’s business improvement district, a private group of property owners in the area.

“These aren’t big-box stores,” Rodriguez said. “These are family-owned and, in some cases, generational businesses that more than ever need L.A.’s support. If people can come down and just spend $10 to $15 … that’s how we can make a difference.”

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On Monday, Osorio said she made just one sale: a pair of utility boots.

She opened the store at 9:30 a.m. and sold the boots at around 2 p.m. They had been marked down $30 from their typical price of $160 because customers have been so reluctant to spend money, she said.

“We are waiting for the good times,” Osorio said. “Honestly, I felt like it was going to be better this week, but it’s been really, really slow. We just pray and keep the faith. Let’s see what happens.”

Small businesses in the area — which includes the historically vibrant, bustling open-air shopping corridor Santee Alley, known for bargain prices — are looking for ways to recoup some of their losses through holiday sales.

Shoppers stroll along The Santee Alley in downtown's fashion district

Shoppers stroll along Santee Alley in downtown’s Fashion District. More than half a dozen businesses in the alley and on Santee Street said their sales remained down after the onslaught of federal immigration raids, with some doing better than others.

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Foot traffic in the area is back at levels seen before federal immigration raids began in Los Angeles in early June, according to the business improvement district.

But Rodriguez said traffic fluctuates day to day and is “at the mercy” of rumors, at times false, of federal enforcement operations circulated among group chats of merchants and community members.

Such alerts prompt businesses to shut down at a moment’s notice with “people literally running from their stores,” Rodriguez said. He said that, one day, agents from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service were conducting an investigation in the area and were confused for Customs and Border Protection officers.

Rodriguez said there are “very valid reasons” to pay attention to alerts but that minimizing their harmful effects is crucial for economic recovery.

Visitors to stores and businesses in the Fashion District dropped dramatically in the week or so after the initial raids on June 6. Foot traffic in the Fashion District dropped 33% while visitors to Santee Alley specifically dropped by 50%, according to the business improvement district.

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Rodriguez said it took at least three weeks to recover foot traffic, and even so, vendors are struggling because “people are not spending like they used to.”

And the typical holiday boost has yet to make an appearance, Rodriguez said.

“As of right now, we are not seeing the holiday spike we have seen in previous years,” he said.

In May, the Fashion District saw some 1.98 million visitors, while in June that number dropped to 1.2 million, according to the group. In September, the district saw 1.3 million visitors, far below the the 1.5 million the area saw in the same period last year.

The Santee Alley in downtown's fashion district

Santee Alley in downtown’s Fashion District where business owners are working to recover from losses caused by recent immigration enforcement.

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Pop music blared from open doors on Monday afternoon on Santee Street as the light faded. A smattering of storefronts were closed, but most were open, ready to welcome tourists and local families doing their holiday shopping. Clumps of customers gathered. The alley was lively compared with the weeks after the first summer raids.

Maria Fuertes, 43, and her daughter had prowled the area for more than seven hours, since 9 a.m., shopping for outfits for a December wedding. They had made the more-than-hourlong trek from Eastvale in Riverside County to look for formal dresses and shoes. Fuertes said she often shops in the area around the holidays and that it “feels empty” compared to years past.

“It’s kind of creepy and lonely,” Fuertes said.

More than half a dozen businesses in the alley and on Santee Street told The Times their sales remained down after the onslaught of federal immigration raids, with some doing better than others. A lingerie shop saw a dip but not a severe one, with online sales remaining strong. The owner of an accessories store said business was down 30%, while an employee at a jewelry store said business was down 70%.

A local merchants association known as Somos los Callejones and the Los Angeles Tenants Union partnered with Councilmember Ysabel Jurado to host a street festival Saturday in an effort to attract customers in the lead-up to Black Friday.

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According to Jurado’s office, the festival drew some 500 attendees. Vendors set up booths and racks of clothing along Olympic Boulevard between Santee Street and Maple Avenue, which was closed to vehicle traffic. The event featured live music, and organizers raffled off 10 turkeys.

Shoppers stroll along Maple Ave.

Shoppers stroll along Maple Avenue in downtown’s Fashion District.

The raffling of turkeys highlighted the food insecurity many families in the area are facing, Jurado said in an interview. Some have lost their primary breadwinners to the Trump administration’s deportation efforts, and children have begun to skip school to keep their households afloat.

“Some were so excited to win [turkeys],” Jurado said, adding that the food insecurity “has been really sobering.”

“These are the realities that people are continuing to grapple with,” she said, “as their loved ones have been taken.”

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Businesses said they were marketing deals when possible — and emphasizing customer service.

The California Mirage Jewelry Design Center, which is on prime real estate at the entrance to Santee Alley and has been in operation since the 1990s, has been offering 30% off on all items since last week, a promotion that will last through Black Friday.

Carolina Medrano, 38, a store employee who on Monday evening rearranged twinkling gold chains, said that even with the discount, business had been “super slow.”

“I believe everybody is struggling,” said Jessica Morales, 40, an employee at a nearby dress retailer who asked that the store not be named, since she didn’t have permission from her supervisor.

As she used a long pole with a hook to hang a glittery pink dress on a high rack, Morales noted that some customers had become more aggressive in trying to negotiate a lower price, threatening to go to other vendors.

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She tries to emphasize the quality and variety of the store’s dresses, and that some other nearby retailers are no longer able to afford to keep their inventory well-stocked.

Some customers talk of quinceañeras being canceled, or their husbands telling them to stay home from parties for fears of raids, Morales said.

“People are trying to save their money. Everyone’s scared to come out,” Morales said. “You have to find a way to connect with customers.”

Women's attire on display

Women’s attire on display at the corner of Olympic Boulevard and Maple Avenue in downtown’s Fashion District where business owners are working to recover from losses caused by recent immigration enforcement.

The hit to sales in the aftermath of immigration raids comes as the local economy is already suffering, weakened by the rise of e-commerce, tourism disruptions from COVID-19 lockdowns and inflationary and other economic pressures pushing consumers to spend less.

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Ilse Metchek, a former president of the California Fashion Assn. who has worked in the industry since the 1950s, said the merchandise sold in Santee Alley had changed in recent years. It shifted from the good-quality excess products of local brands — which were then sold at bargain prices — to imitation or cheap goods often imported from abroad.

Famously, Richard Riordan, who served as mayor of Los Angeles from 1993 to 2001, “took a very publicized walk [through Santee Alley] where he paid $10 for a silk shirt and made a whole big to-do about it,” Metchek said.

The move by then-President Reagan to grant amnesty, giving legal status and a path to citizenship to many immigrants lacking authorization, helped pave the way for a booming fashion economy, she said.

Immigration crackdowns in recent years, regulations that have increased labor costs and China’s manufacturing boom in the early 2000s have created a difficult economy for California fashion brands and workers.

“It’s a pity,” Metchek said. “There’s a clear pattern of why and what has happened here. This is not nuclear physics.”

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Gloria Andrade, 53, owns a business selling makeup, accessories and miscellaneous electronics in the Maple Alley Fashion Center in downtown L.A. that has operated for some 25 years. In May, her family opened up a second storefront nearby in Santee Alley, without anticipating the raids and resulting downturn.

Los Angeles downtown's fashion district

A view of the corner of Olympic Avenue and Santee Street in downtown’s Fashion District where business owners are working to recover from losses caused by recent immigration enforcement.

Andrade said the rent for her new location is about $4,500, and that she’s two months behind. Many neighboring businesses are in a similar situation, she said.

“It’s the first day of vacation and nobody came,” she said of the Thanksgiving holiday. “We’ll wait for Christmas to see how it goes.”

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Fall Art Auction Quiz: Are You Smarter Than a Billionaire?

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Fall Art Auction Quiz: Are You Smarter Than a Billionaire?

In a single week, collectors spent a whopping $2.2 billion on art at New York’s auction houses. While that $236 million Klimt portrait made headlines, plenty of other paintings and sculptures sold for sums that might surprise you.

Can you guess which of these works sold for more?

Note: Listed sale prices include auction fees.

Image credits: “Paradise Pies (VI): Red” via Sotheby’s; “Untitled” via Christie’s; “From our side” via Christie’s; “TAGOMIZOR” via Christie’s; “Blumenwiese (Blooming Meadow)” via Sotheby’s; “Waldabhang bei Unterach am Attersee (Forest Slope in Unterach on the Attersee)” via Sotheby’s; “Cowboy Eating with Shoulder Hole” via Sotheby’s; “Untitled (Cowboy)” via Christie’s; “A Clear Unspoken Granted Magic” via Christie’s; “Sarah” via Phillips; “Modern Painting Triptych II” via Sotheby’s; “Nude with Blue Hair, State I” via Christie’s; “Abstraktes Bild” via Christie’s; “Sunflower V” via Christie’s; “Wall Relief with Bird” via Christie’s; “Hulk (Rock)” via Sotheby’s; “America” via Sotheby’s; gold by MirageC via Getty Images.

Zachary Small contributed reporting. Produced by Josephine Sedgwick.

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Fubo TV blasts NBCUniversal for pulling channels

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Fubo TV blasts NBCUniversal for pulling channels

Subscribers of sports streaming service Fubo TV have lost access to channels owned by NBCUniversal in the latest TV distribution dust-up.

Fubo blasted NBCUniversal for its stance during collapsed contract negotiations, resulting in a blackout of NBCUniversal channels just days before Thanksgiving when scores of viewers hunker down for turkey and football. NBC is set to broadcast the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, the National Dog Show and Thursday night’s NFL game featuring the Cincinnati Bengals battling the Baltimore Ravens. The events also will stream on Peacock.

The blackout, which also includes Bravo, CNBC and Spanish-language Telemundo, affects Fubo’s nearly 1.6 million customers.

The dispute comes a month after NBCUniversal’s rival, Walt Disney Co., acquired the controlling stake of Fubo and folded the smaller sports-centric offering into Disney’s Hulu + Live TV. (Hulu + subscribers still have NBCUniversal channels available because they are covered by a separate distribution contract.)

Fubo customers could also miss NBC’s broadcast of the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

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(Eduardo Munoz Avarez / Associated Press)

In its Tuesday statement, Fubo alleged that NBCUniversal had refused to give Fubo leeway to offer just a few of its channels — rather than its entire portfolio. Fubo is looking to control costs and designed its product to be a slimmed-down version of a bulky bundle — but one with a heavy complement of sports networks.

Fubo also took issue with NBCUniversal negotiating on behalf of the cable channels that NBCUniversal plans to cast off in January as part of a corporate split.

Legacy cable channels including MS Now (formerly MSNBC), Syfy, CNBC, USA Network and Golf Channel will be form the new publicly traded company, Versant.

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“Fubo offered to distribute Versant channels for one year,” Fubo said in its statement, adding that it views most of those networks as “not being worth the cost.”

“NBCU wants Fubo to sign a multi-year deal – well past the time the Versant channels will be owned by a separate company,” Fubo said. “NBCU wants Fubo subscribers to subsidize these channels.”

NBCUniversal, owned by cable and broadband giant Comcast, countered that it had offered Fubo similar terms to those contained in deals struck with other pay-TV distributors — but Fubo balked.

“Unfortunately, this is par for the course for Fubo,” NBCUniversal said. “They’ve dropped numerous networks in recent years at the expense of their customers, who continue to lose content.”

The Nov. 21 blackout came one week after Disney resolved a separate, high-profile dispute with Google’s YouTube TV. That dispute, which resulted in a two-week blackout of Disney-owned channels, including ESPN, for about 10 million YouTube TV customers, hinged on fee increases sought by Disney.

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The two companies also tussled over YouTube TV’s desire to offer the ESPN streaming app to its customers at no extra cost.

They reached a compromise, and YouTube came away with authorization to provide some ESPN streaming content.

In September, YouTube TV avoided a similar blackout of NBC channels by making a deal just hours before the deadline.

The Fubo TV logo is displayed on a TV earlier in 2025.  (Photo Illustration by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Disney acquired 70% of Fubo TV in October 2025.

(Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)

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Fubo pointed to NBCUniversal’s recent deals with YouTube TV and Amazon Prime Video, which allows those companies to offer NBC’s streaming app Peacock as part of their channel stores. Fubo alleged that NBC refused to give Fubo the same rights.

“Fubo is committed to bringing its subscribers a premium, competitively-priced live TV streaming experience with the content they love,” Fubo said. “That includes multiple content options, including a sports-focused service, that can be accessed directly from the Fubo app. We hope NBCU reconsiders their stance, or we’ll be forced to move forward without them.”

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