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Maps: Where Trump Voter Jobs Will Be Hit by Tariffs

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Maps: Where Trump Voter Jobs Will Be Hit by Tariffs

The counties where tariffs could hit jobs, by presidential vote winner

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Source: New York Times analysis of data from Lightcast and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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Note: Vote results are for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Data not available for Alaska.

As President Trump imposes tariffs on products from countries around the world, foreign governments are answering back with tariffs of their own.

China has targeted corn farmers and carmakers. Canada has put tariffs on poultry plants and air-conditioning manufacturers, while Europe will hit American steel mills and slaughter houses.

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Since Mr. Trump ordered steep levies on some of America’s largest trading partners in February and March, other countries have begun imposing their own tariffs on American exports in an attempt to put pressure on the president to relent.

The retaliatory tariffs have been carefully designed to hit Mr. Trump where it hurts: Nearly 8 million Americans work in industries targeted by the levies and the majority are Trump voters, a New York Times analysis shows.

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The figures underscore the dramatic impact that a trade war could have on American workers, potentially causing Mr. Trump’s economic strategy to backfire. Mr. Trump has argued that tariffs will help boost American jobs. But economists say that retaliatory tariffs can cancel out that effect.

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Number of jobs affected by each country’s retaliatory tariffs

Source: New York Times analysis of data from Lightcast and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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Note: Industries were targeted in more than one round and by more than one country, so there is overlap in the number of jobs affected. Note: Data not available for Alaska.

The countermeasures are aimed at industries that employ roughly 7.75 million people across the United States. The bulk of those — 4.48 million — are in counties that voted for Mr. Trump in the last election, compared with 3.26 million jobs in counties that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a calculation by The Times that included examining retaliatory tariffs on more than 4,000 product categories.

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These totals are the number of jobs in industries that foreign countries have targeted with their tariffs — not the number of jobs that will actually be lost because of tariffs, which is likely to be significantly lower. But industries hit by retaliatory tariffs are likely to sell fewer goods on foreign markets, which may mean lower profits and job losses.

The jobs that could be hit by retaliation are especially concentrated in pockets of the upper Midwest, South and Southeast, including many rural parts of the country that are responsible for producing agricultural goods. It also includes areas that produce coal, oil, car parts and other manufactured products.

Robert Maxim, a fellow at the Brookings Metro, a Washington think tank that has done similar analysis, said that other countries had particularly targeted Trump-supporting regions and places where “Trump would like to fashion himself as revitalizing the U.S.” That includes smaller manufacturing communities in states like Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan, as well as southern states like Kentucky and Georgia, he said.

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The message foreign countries are trying to send, he said, is, “You think you can bully us, well, we can hurt you too. And by the way, we know where it really matters.”

Retaliation may also mean concentrated pain for some industries, like farming. In Mr. Trump’s first term, American farmers – a strong voting bloc for the president – were targeted by China and other governments, which caused U.S. exports of soybeans and other crops to plummet.

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Chinese buyers shifted to purchasing more agricultural goods from nations like Argentina and Brazil instead, and U.S. farmers had a difficult time winning back those contracts in subsequent years. Mr. Trump tried to offset those losses by giving farmers more than $20 billion in payments to compensate for the pain of the trade war.

One analysis published last year by economists at M.I.T., the World Bank and elsewhere found that retaliatory tariffs imposed on the United States during Mr. Trump’s first term had a negative effect on U.S. jobs, outweighing any benefit to employment from Mr. Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods or from the subsidies Mr. Trump provided to those hurt by his trade policies.

The net effect on American employment of U.S. tariffs, foreign tariffs and subsidies “was at best a wash, and it may have been mildly negative,” the economists concluded.

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Rural parts of the country are once again at risk from retaliation. Agriculture is a major U.S. export and farmers are politically important to Mr. Trump. And rural counties may have one major employer — like a poultry processing plant — that provides a big share of the county’s jobs, compared with urban or suburban areas that are more diversified.

The retaliatory tariffs target industries employing 9.5 percent of people in Wisconsin, 8.5 percent of people in Indiana and 8.4 percent of people in Iowa. The shares are also relatively high in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky and Kansas.

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Share of jobs in targeted industries in each state

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Wisconsin Wis. 9.5% 298,600
Indiana Ind. 8.5% 289,900
Iowa Iowa 8.4% 146,500
Arkansas Ark. 8.2% 115,800
Alabama Ala. 8.1% 186,800
Mississippi Miss. 8.0% 101,600
Kentucky Ky. 7.6% 167,500
Kansas Kan. 7.0% 113,200
Michigan Mich. 6.8% 319,300
Tennessee Tenn. 6.5% 231,500
Ohio Ohio 6.3% 366,800
South Carolina S.C. 6.2% 152,500
West Virginia W.Va. 6.1% 44,800
Minnesota Minn. 6.0% 188,300
Missouri Mo. 5.9% 170,100
Georgia Ga. 5.7% 301,500
Nebraska Neb. 5.7% 63,800
South Dakota S.D. 5.6% 29,800
Maine Maine 5.5% 39,500
Pennsylvania Pa. 5.5% 347,100
Vermont Vt. 5.4% 18,600
Idaho Idaho 5.3% 51,100
North Carolina N.C. 5.3% 281,300
Illinois Ill. 5.2% 334,600
Rhode Island R.I. 5.1% 27,500
Connecticut Conn. 5.0% 75,300
North Dakota N.D. 5.0% 24,400
Washington Wash. 4.9% 194,900
Oklahoma Okla. 4.8% 91,500
Oregon Ore. 4.7% 103,300
Alaska Alaska 4.6% 17,400

No data available

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New Hampshire N.H. 4.5% 32,500
Utah Utah 4.3% 81,400
Wyoming Wyo. 4.1% 13,000
Texas Texas 4.0% 606,400
Louisiana La. 4.0% 85,100
Virginia Va. 3.8% 168,600
California Calif. 3.6% 730,200
Delaware Del. 3.6% 18,400
New Jersey N.J. 3.4% 151,200
Montana Mont. 3.1% 18,100
Colorado Colo. 3.0% 97,300
Arizona Ariz. 3.0% 104,400
Nevada Nev. 2.9% 49,400
Massachusetts Mass. 2.9% 115,800
Florida Fla. 2.3% 247,300
New Mexico N.M. 2.3% 22,200
Maryland Md. 2.2% 64,800
New York N.Y. 1.8% 281,000
Hawaii Hawaii 1.2% 8,900

Source: New York Times analysis of data from Lightcast and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

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The New York Times

In an address to Congress earlier this month, Mr. Trump implied that farmers could be hit again, saying there may be “an adjustment period” as he put tariffs in place on foreign products. There may be “a little disturbance,” he said. “We are OK with that. It won’t be much.”

Mr. Trump said he had told farmers in his first term to “‘Just bear with me,’ and they did. They did. Probably have to bear with me again,” he said.

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Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings Metro, said that many of the counties affected by retaliation were rural, and “hard red territory.” The geography of Mr. Trump’s political support, he said, was “no secret to our trade partners.”

“They’re very cognizant of these industries, the geography of these industries, and how American politics work,” he added.

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Methodology

The analysis was based on an analytical technique used by the Brookings Institution to examine the first round of Chinese retaliatory tariffs.

To expand on the analysis, The Times collected the lists of U.S. products targeted for retaliatory tariffs by China, Canada and the European Union as of March 14. In total, the six published lists contain more than 4,000 individual product categories, many of which were targeted by more than one country. The tariffs from China and Canada are currently in force. One set of tariffs from the European Union is scheduled to go into effect April 1, while the other set is preliminary, and is subject to change until its implementation in mid-April.

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After collecting the list of products, The Times used a concordance table from the Census Bureau, which provides a way to tie a given product category to the general industry which produces it.

To tally the number of jobs, The Times used data from Lightcast, a labor market analytics company. Lightcast provided The Times with industry-level employment data based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The quarterly census suppresses employment data for industries at the county level to protect the privacy of employers when there are only a handful of establishments. Lightcast uses a proprietary algorithm that draws from a number of related datasets to estimate the employment level for fields that are suppressed in the census.

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County election results are from The Associated Press.

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Indian truckers sue California’s DMV for revoking their licenses

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Indian truckers sue California’s DMV for revoking their licenses

Immigrant truck drivers have sued the California Department of Motor Vehicles for terminating the commercial driver’s licenses of thousands of drivers, alleging that the decision violated their rights and threatened their livelihood.

California’s DMV gave a 60-day cancellation notice to 17,000 drivers on Nov. 6 after a federal audit found the licenses issued to immigrant drivers were set to expire after the time they were legally allowed to remain in the U.S.

In the event of such clerical errors by the DMV, the suit alleges, California law requires the DMV to change the expiration of its own accord or to allow applicants to reapply for a corrected license.

“The state of California must help these 20,000 drivers because, at the end of the day, the clerical errors threatening their livelihoods are of the CA-DMV’s own making,” said Munmeeth Kaur, legal director of the Sikh Coalition, a group fighting for the civil rights of Sikhs.

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The Sikh Coalition and Asian Law Caucus filed the class-action lawsuit on behalf of five commercial driver’s license holders, challenging the DMV’s decision to revoke licenses.

Since November, the number of cancellation notifications has grown to more than 20,000.

“If the court does not issue a stay, we will see a devastating wave of unemployment that harms individual families, as well as the destabilization of supply chains on which we all rely,” said Kaur.

The Sikh Coalition also noted that the action was taken under pressure from the federal government. It said the California DMV has failed to provide recourse, and informed applicants that it’s not issuing or renewing non-resident commercial driver’s licenses.

Punjabi Sikh truckers have emerged as a pillar of the American trucking industry. For years, many have sought asylum in the U.S. and entered the transportation industry.

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There are around 750,000 Punjabi Sikhs in the United States. Of those, about 150,000 work in the trucking industry, with the majority based on the West Coast.

The issue of immigrant truckers became a political flash point earlier this year, when a Punjabi Sikh driver took an illegal U-turn at a turnpike that caused a crash in Florida that killed three people. The Trump administration swung into action and found seven states, including California, Washington and Texas, that had lax licensing rules.

The crackdown has caused a wave of racism and racial profiling of Sikh truckers, many of whom sport turbans and beards as symbols of their faith, which is neither Hindu nor Muslim.

Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy singled out California for issuing commercial driver’s licenses to what his department says are unqualified immigrant truckers that put lives on the road in danger. Many truckers quit the industry after the introduction of enhanced English proficiency tests, where highway inspectors check for language proficiency and highway traffic sign competency.

Policy changes regarding noncitizen commercial licenses and English-language proficiency enforcement could remove more than 400,000 commercial drivers from the market over the next three years, according to J.B. Hunt, one of the largest trucking companies.

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Commentary: The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come

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Commentary: The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come

The federal government’s monthly releases of economic statistics — especially the inflation rate and growth as tracked by gross domestic product — have long occasioned partisan preening (or denunciation) and for a general public stock-taking of the health of the economy.

Not this month. This time, they’re the occasion for doubt and confusion.

On Dec. 18, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation had fallen to an annual rate of 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September and well below the 3.1% consensus of economists. And on Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product had shot up by a surprising 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 ended Sept. 30.

The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives.

— Zachary Karabell

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Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration and its Republican acolytes seized on the figures to boast about Trump’s economic policies. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett proclaimed the inflation figure to be “an absolute blockbuster report.” He described the GDP figure as “a great Christmas present for the American people.”

“America is winning again,” crowed House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after the GDP report. He called it “the direct result of congressional Republicans and President Trump delivering policies that drive growth and expand opportunity for American families and workers.”

Um, not so fast.

The economists whose jobs involve scrutinizing those statistics to glean what they really mean don’t view them as unalloyed support for Trumponomics. Quite the contrary. Many see them as artifacts of the long government shutdown, which halted the collection of data that go into those reports, severely distorting the results. Furthermore, they expect the flaws in those reports to persist well into 2026, undermining their usefulness as true economic indicators.

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“You’ve got to take it with a grain of salt,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, of the inflation report. “It’s confusing and it doesn’t quite square with prices that we’ve observed.”

A close examination of the GDP figures also underscores the narrow basis driving economic growth in recent months — it’s essentially the product of robust spending by wealthy consumers and massive corporate investments in AI technology. For middle- and lower-income Americans, the economic present and future don’t look anywhere as sunny as the numbers would suggest.

“The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives,” says financial analyst and economic commentator Zachary Karabell, whose 2014 book “The Leading Indicators” injected some perspective on how we interpret economic statistics and explained why our faith in them is often misplaced.

Indeed, consumer confidence has been sinking for months, according to the Conference Board. That points to an enduring question about the U.S. economy: Whose economy is it?

More than ever, it belongs to the rich, producing a “K-shaped” economy, which has been playing out in shopping patterns this holiday season, as my colleague Caroline Petrow-Cohen recently wrote.

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According to Bank of America analysts, since this spring, spending by the highest-earning third of Americans has been soaring, while that of middle- and lower-income households has stagnated. In part that’s because the stock market has remained vibrant.

Since the top 20% of households as measured by income own about 87% of directly-held equities, stock market gains “tend to disproportionately benefit the higher-income cohort,” the BofA analysts noted. By contrast, “almost 30% of lower-income households appear to be living ‘paycheck to paycheck.’”

The highest-earning 10% of households now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, according to Moody’s Analytics. That’s the highest level since the data began to be collected in the 1980s, when the rich accounted for only about one-third of spending.

Job growth may already have turned negative, even if the published employment figures don’t yet show it, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged during a Dec. 10 news conference following the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.

Non-farm payroll gains have averaged about 40,000 a month since April, Powell observed. “We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers by about 60,000,” he said. “So that would be negative 20,000 per month.”

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The divergence between the gross economic statistics and the lived experience of Americans is nothing new. It was remarked on by Robert F. Kennedy Sr. in a speech in March 1968, less than three months before his nascent presidential campaign was ended by an assassin’s bullet.

“Gross national product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage,” he observed. “It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. … Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. … It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.”

That brings us to the specific flaws in the latest statistics.

The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, was the most important cause of gaps in the collected data for the consumer price index calculation. As Swonk noted in a social media post, cutbacks at the BLS had already reduced the staff assigned to sampling prices by 25%. That prompted the agency to substitute “imputed” numbers for hard data.

“Those cases can show up as zeros in the percent change of the release,” Swonk wrote — obviously lowering the bottom-line figure. A sampling scheduled for mid-October had to be canceled, so figures dating from August were used instead — concealing any price increases in subsequent months.

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A major problem concerns housing costs, which account for about one-third of the data inputs for the CPI. Because the BLS was unable to collect rental data for October, it implied that the monthly change in rents was 0% in October — further skewing the reported CPI lower. Experts say it will take at least six months to use newly collected data to provide a reliable estimate of housing inflation.

The delay in sampling, Swonk adds, means that some seasonal price phenomena were missed. She points specifically to airfares — the originally scheduled sampling would have incorporated a pre-Thanksgiving run-up in fares, but by the time the data were collected fares had returned to a non-holiday level.

Inflation data also are incorporated into GDP estimates — the lower the inflation rate, Swonk notes, the better the GDP looks. An artificially reduced inflation rate will translate into higher reported GDP growth.

All this might have a limited economic impact — corporations, banks and academic economists generally have sources other than the government to reach their conclusions — if not for the partisan political exploitation of the numbers.

As Karabell reported in his 2014 book, Simon Kuznets, the government statistician who helped to codify the collection of government figures in the 1930s, was concerned about how politics would give the statistics a misleading social significance.

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“These numbers have turned into absolute markets of the human condition,” Karabell wrote, “when they are simply statistical descriptions of specific systems.”

Economists have warned that some economic factors haven’t yet fully played out. That includes Trump’s tariffs, which in their execution have been lower than they appeared on the surface, and higher healthcare premiums, which have been forecast or announced but won’t actually become effective until 2026.

If the job market continues to weaken, that will show up more vividly in 2026. The interplay between “a surging economy and a soft labor market,” argues Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the business consulting firm RSM, “is likely to be the major economic narrative next year.”

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California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud

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California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud

Four years ago, California startup Theta Labs’ cryptocurrency was soaring, and its future appeared bright when it landed a partnership with pop star Katy Perry.

The Bay Area company had built a marketplace for digital collectibles known as nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, and had teamed up with Perry to launch NFTs tied to her Las Vegas concert residency. Its THETA token jumped by more than 500% in early 2021, reaching a peak of more than $15, making it one of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrencies. Later in the year, the spotlight shone on the company when it announced the Perry partnership.

“I can’t wait to dive in with the Theta team on all the exciting and memorable creative pieces, so my fans can own a special moment of my residency,” Perry said in a June 2021 news release.

Today, like many cryptocurrencies, THETA is 95% off its 2021 peak. It took a hit this week after former executives accused it of manipulating markets to dupe consumers into buying its products. On Tuesday, it was trading at less than 30 cents.

Two former executives from Theta Labs sued the startup, alleging in separate lawsuits that the company and its chief executive, Mitch Liu, engaged in fraud and manipulated the cryptocurrency market for his benefit. Liu retaliated against them after the employees refused to engage in deceptive business practices and raised concerns, the lawsuits say.

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Some of the alleged misconduct involved placing fake bids on Perry’s NFTs, engaging in token “pump and dump” schemes and using celebrity endorsements and “misleading” partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google to deceive the public, according to the December lawsuits filed in Los Angeles Superior Court.

Perry is not accused of any wrongdoing in the suit, and Theta denies the charges.

The lawsuits against Theta Labs are the latest controversy to rattle an industry beset by scandals.

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed, and its founder, Samuel Bankman-Fried, was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024 after being found guilty of multiple fraud charges. Binance founder and former Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao also got prison time after he pleaded guilty to violating money laundering laws, but President Trump pardoned him this year.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission previously charged celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, Lindsay Lohan, Jake Paul and Ne-Yo for promoting crypto without disclosing they were paid to do so.

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Theta Labs created a network that rewarded people with cryptocurrency for contributing spare bandwidth and computing power to enhance video streaming and lower content delivery costs. The company describes Theta Network as a “blockchain-powered decentralized cloud for AI, media and entertainment.” The network has two tokens: THETA, used to secure the network, and TFUEL, used to pay users for services and power operations.

The whistleblowers suing Theta Labs are Jerry Kowal, its former head of content, and Andrea Berry, previously the company’s head of business development.

“Liu used Theta Labs as his personal trading vehicle, perpetrating fraud, self-dealing, and market manipulation,” said Mark Mermelstein, Kowal’s attorney, in a statement. “His calculated ‘pump-and-dump’ schemes repeatedly wiped out employee and investor value. This suit is about demanding accountability and proving no one is above the law.”

Theta, Liu and its parent company, Sliver VR Technologies, deny the allegations and “intend to prove with evidence the fallacy of the stories being told in the lawsuits,” according to Kronenberger Rosenfeld, the law firm representing the defendants. The lawsuits are an attempt to paint the company in a negative light in hopes of securing a settlement, a lawyer for the firm said.

Kowal has sued his former employers before. In 2014, he accused Netflix of spreading false claims that he stole confidential information and Amazon of wrongful termination.

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The latest lawsuits allege that Liu profited from buying and selling THETA tokens using insider knowledge about partnerships with celebrities, studios and others in the entertainment industry.

“Liu’s true motive in pursuing such partnerships was not to develop a sustainable content business but to generate publicity that could be used to artificially inflate token prices for Liu’s personal gain,” Kowal’s lawsuit says.

Kowal worked for Theta from 2020 to 2025.

In 2020, Liu traded and sold tokens knowing that the company would close a content licensing deal with MGM Studios, according to the lawsuit. After the deal’s announcement, THETA token’s market capitalization increased by more than $50 million in just 24 hours, the lawsuit says.

When NFTs started to take off in 2021, Kowal closed deals with high-profile partners such as Perry, Fremantle Media and Resorts World Las Vegas for the startup’s NFT marketplace.

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As part of the deal with Perry, the singer received $8.5 million and additional warrants for the right to license her image and likeness for the NFTs.

To inflate the price and demand for these digital collectibles, Liu allegedly made bids on NFTs and directed employees to do the same. This led to people overpaying for the Perry NFTs.

Representatives for Perry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Multiple examples of alleged manipulation are outlined in the lawsuits. In one instance from 2022, the startup launched a new token called TDROP that employees also received as part of a bonus.

Liu gained control of 43% of the supply of the cryptocurrency, according to Kowal’s lawsuit. When the TDROP token reached a high, he then sold the token, and its price collapsed by more than 90% within months.

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Berry’s lawsuit also alleges that Theta Labs announced “misleading” or fake partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google and entities including NASA to pump up the value of the THETA token. Theta paid for Google Cloud products but claimed it was a partner when it was a Google customer, according to the lawsuit.

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