Business

Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

Published

1 year ago

August 23, 2024

Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

After a near-textbook campaign to rein in inflation by raising interest rates, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell, all but promised Friday to start lowering rates next month — with fingers crossed that it’s not too late to avoid a recession.

From the beginning of the inflationary surge triggered more than three years ago by the economic disruptions of the pandemic, it was clear that raising interest rates could tame price hikes. It was also clear that, if rates stayed too high too long, they could choke the economy into recession.

And few states are showing stronger signs of a possible downturn than California, which has felt the impact of high interest rates more severely than others. Not only has its unemployment rate been among the highest in the land while its job creation rate lagged, but pillar industries such as entertainment and tech have also gone through major disruption and many residents and businesses have left the state.

“Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace,” Powell said in a widely anticipated speech at the annual summer symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said, giving the strongest signal yet of an imminent rate cut.

Investors cheered the news. Major stock indexes rose almost immediately after he began speaking.

Powell did not tip his hand on the size of the coming rate cut, but most analysts widely expect a small quarter-point move next month and a succession of similar reductions over the next year.

But Powell’s emphasis on doing “everything we can to support a strong labor market” gave some economists reason to think that the Fed could make a half-point move next month. Powell said that the pace of policy actions would “depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Whatever the initial size may be, it should fairly quickly nudge down interest rates on credit cards, auto loans and other consumer financing, but the broader economic effects of Fed policy are likely to take hold only gradually.

And with the political climate at a boil and the U.S. unemployment rising significantly since the start of the year, the Fed may find itself behind the curve in reversing course after what has been, up to now, a successful run of lowering inflation while preventing the economy from falling into a recession — the so-called soft landing.

“They’ve got to get going,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, who for months has been calling on the Fed to start lowering rates.

Barring major economic changes or extreme volatility in markets, most economists see two to three quarter-point cuts this year and several more over the course of 2025, eventually bringing the Fed’s benchmark rate from the current two-decade high of 5.3% down to around 3%.

Financial markets have already priced in a September quarter-point cut, with stocks having mostly recovered from a big jolt a couple of weeks ago when investors feared the economy was turning down quickly and that it was already too late for the Fed.

Interest rates for a conventional 30-year mortgage were down to a hair below 6.5% this week, from more than 7% as recently as May. Lower rates should also help with auto purchases. Zandi said car sales have slowed as consumers have been waiting for better rates. The average interest rate on a five-year new auto loan was 8.2% in the second quarter, the highest since the Fed’s record keeping began in 2006.

The overriding question with the economy is jobs, both for workers and for political leaders facing a national election in November. And jobs are one of the two basic elements of the Fed’s responsibility. The other is price stability.

Powell acknowledged on Friday that the Fed initially misjudged the inflation spike in spring 2021, thinking that the pandemic-related surge in prices would be “transitory” and one that the Fed could look past.

Most analysts criticized Fed officials for waiting too long to raise rates, but Powell noted that they were hardly alone. “The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” he said, adding in impromptu remarks, “I think I see some former shipmates out there today,” prompting a moment of laughter from the audience during his 15-minute speech.

It wasn’t until March 2022 when the Fed began raising rates. And, until recently, Powell and his colleagues focused squarely on consumer price inflation, which peaked in June 2022 at 9.1% and has since dropped to just under 3%. With inflation now trending toward the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank’s attention has turned to employment, which has become more worrisome in recent weeks.

First-time unemployment claims have moved up while the number of job openings has shrunk. The nation’s unemployment rate, 4.3% in July, is up from 3.7% in January, and new reports this week indicate that job growth from March 2023 to March 2024 was considerably smaller than previously estimated, though still healthy.

“The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable,” Powell said, adding, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”

California’s unemployment rate has held steady in the last three months at 5.2%, but that’s still the second-highest in the country after Nevada. (California earlier in the year had the highest jobless figure.) More recently the pace of job growth in California has picked up, but the July report from the state’s Employment Development Department shows workers in California on average are putting in fewer hours of work.

That may not be a bad thing if more workers are opting for a better work-life balance, something that has become more important since the pandemic, said Erica Groshen, an economist and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. And, longer term, it could mean companies are more productive if they’re producing as much or more with less labor input.

But the decline in work hours, she said, could signal weakening demand and pending layoffs if business conditions persist or worsen.

The latest data from the state EDD show average weekly hours of work for all private-sector employees was down to 33.4 hours in July, from 34.5 a year ago. That may not seem like much, but it means a significant corresponding drop in average weekly earnings, which turned negative in July compared with a year earlier. Workers in information, education and health services, professional and business services, and the leisure sector, posted fewer hours of work.

“The softening job market tends to go with reduced hours,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics and finance at Loyola Marymount University. “Typically, firms start cutting back hours before shedding jobs.”

That is likely even more true now because over the past several years many employers have had trouble finding new workers when they needed them.

Tom Trujillo, president of a family-owned business that operates eight Wienerschnitzel restaurants in the Southland, has held on to his staff of about 140. But like many other fast-food franchisees, Trujillo said he has cut back on overtime and some part-time employees’ hours as a result of the $20 minimum wage that took effect in April for his industry.

In response , he said he’s raised prices and that some of his stores are opening a little later and some dining rooms closing an hour or two earlier.

“I have a reserve credit line, with a zero balance,” Trujillo said. “The lower interest rates would be nice if I have to draw on that.”

But what he said he needs most today are more customers and for them to come more often.

Whether lower interest rates could help drive greater sales at Trujillo’s and other businesses remains to be seen.

Business

The rise and fall of the Sprinkles empire that made cupcakes cool

Published

3 hours ago

January 11, 2026

Press Room

The rise and fall of the Sprinkles empire that made cupcakes cool

After the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, Candace Nelson reevaluated her career. She had just been laid off from a boutique investment banking firm in San Francisco’s tech startup scene, and realized she wanted a change.

From her home, she launched a custom cake service that soon morphed into an idea for a cupcake-focused bakery. Nelson and her husband — whom she met at the Bay Area firm where she had worked — then pooled their savings, moved to Southern California and together opened Sprinkles Cupcakes from a 600-square-foot Beverly Hills storefront.

The store quickly sold out on opening day in 2005, and over the next two decades, the Sprinkles brand exploded across the country, opening dozens of locations of its specialty bakeries as well as mall kiosks and its signature around-the-clock cupcake ATMs in several states.

“It was an unproven concept and a big risk,” Nelson told the Times in 2013, at which point the business had 400 employees at 14 locations and dispensed upward of a thousand cupcakes a day from its Beverly Hills ATM alone.

But now, the iconic cupcake brand is no longer.

Sprinkles abruptly shut down all of its locations on Dec. 31, leaving hundreds of retail employees across Arizona; California; Washington, D.C.; Florida; Nevada; Texas; and Utah in a lurch with little notice, no severance and scrambling to fulfill a surge of orders from customers clamoring to get their last tastes.

Candace Nelson, the founder of Sprinkles cupcakes, in Beverly Hills in 2018.

(Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)

Although Nelson long ago exited the company, having sold it to private equity firm KarpReilly LLC in 2012, she shared her disappointment with its fate on social media.

“As many of you know, I started Sprinkles in 2005 with a KitchenAid mixer and a big idea,” Nelson said in the post. “It’s surreal to see this chapter come to a close — and it’s not how I imagined the story would unfold.”

The company, now headquartered in Austin, Texas, made no formal announcement regarding the closures and Nelson has not said more than what she posted online. The company did share a comment with KTLA, saying “After thoughtful consideration, we’ve made the very difficult decision to transition away from operating company-owned Sprinkles bakeries.” Neither Nelson nor representatives of Sprinkles and KarpReilly responded to The Times’ requests for comment.

Sprinkles’ demise comes at a tough time for the food and beverage industry. At brick-and-mortar food retail locations, the non-negotiable ingredient and labor costs can be high. And shifting consumer sentiments away from sugar-filled sweets and toward more healthy and functional options, strained pocketbooks, as well as pushes by federal and state governments to nix artificial colors and flavoring, are creating uncertainties for businesses, those in the food industry said.

A 24-hour cupcake ATM at Sprinkles Cupcakes in Beverly Hills in 2012.

“Over the last 10 years the consumer has wizened up tremendously and is looking at the back of the label and choosing where to spend their sweets,” said David Jacobowitz, founder of Austin-based Nebula Snacks, an online food retailer.

At the same time, it’s also not uncommon for businesses owned by private-equity firms to close on a whim, where relentlessly profit-driven decisions might be made simply to pursue more lucrative projects. In recent years, private-equity deals have been seen to milk businesses for profit by slashing costs and quality, and have appeared to play a role in the breakup of some legacy retail brands, including Toys ‘R’ Us, Red Lobster, TGI Fridays and fabrics chain JoAnn Inc. On the flip side, private equity can help infuse much-needed cash into a business and extend its life.

Stevie León and her co-workers received a text the night before New Year’s Eve informing them the franchise Sprinkles location in Sarasota, Fla., where they worked would close permanently after their shifts the next day.

León, 33, said her position as a scratch baker mixing batter and frosting cupcakes overnight had been a dream job, since she had been searching for ways to develop baking skills without paying for expensive schooling.

“I really thought it was my forever job and it was taken away literally in a day,” she said. “I’m just taking it one day at a time.”

Ivy Hernandez, 27, the general manager at the Sarasota store, said that after the news was delivered to her boss, the franchise owner, they rushed to learn their options to keep the store afloat but quickly learned it could be legally precarious to continue operating. The store had been open less than a year.

A nearby corporate store, Hernandez said, had been in disarray for months, with employees contending with broken fridges and lapsed ingredient shipments, as managers implored higher-ups to pay the bills so the business could operate properly.

“It really felt like they were trying to do everything they could to screw everyone over as hard as possible until the end,” Hernandez said.

Sprinkles did not respond to questions about the franchise program or allegations of mismanagement in the lead-up to the closure.

A person walks by Sprinkles on the Upper East Side in New York City in 2020.

The obsession with tiny cakes in paper cups traces back to an episode of “Sex and the City” aired in 2000 showing Miranda and Carrie savoring cupcakes on a bench outside a West Village bakery called Magnolia’s Cupcakes.

“Big wasn’t a crush, he was a crash,” Carrie says to Miranda as she peels down the wrapper on a cupcake topped with bright pink buttercream frosting. She punctuates the quip by taking a big bite, leaving a glob of frosting on her face.

The scene sparked a tourism phenomenon for the bakery — which went on to create a “Carrie” line of cupcakes — and helped propel the burgeoning cupcake industry and companies like Sprinkles Cupcakes, Crumbs Bake Shop and Baked by Melissa to new heights.

Within a decade there was already talk of a “Cupcake Bubble,” coined by writer Daniel Gross in a 2009 Slate article where he argued that the 2008 economic recession laid the groundwork for a proliferation of cupcake stores across America, because a lot of people could figure out how to make tasty cupcakes cheaply and scale up without a huge capital investment.

Amid the decimation of many other local retail businesses, one could take over storefronts in heavily trafficked areas for cheap. As a result, “casual baking turned into an urban industry,” Gross said.

The cupcake fervor hit its peak when Crumbs, which had started as a single bakery on Manhattan’s Upper West Side in 2003, went public in a reverse merger worth $66 million in 2011. The wildly popular mini-cakes were selling at $4.50 a pop. But it became clear very quickly that it had grown too large, too fast. It closed in 2014 after it lost its stock listing on Nasdaq and defaulted on about $14.3 million in financing.

Analysts at the time said consumers were cooling on opulent desserts and suggested tougher times were ahead for bakeries that focused solely on cupcakes.

But Baked by Melissa has thus far proved those analysts wrong. The company has remained privately owned, and according to its founder, is focused on nationwide e-commerce operations — and on expanding the brand beyond sweets. Founder Melissa Ben-Ishay has gained a following on social media by sharing recipes for nutritious, easy-to-make meals.

“Businesses that prioritize quick value increases to get acquired often crash,” Ben-Ishay told Forbes last year. “We’re committed to maintaining product quality and steady, long-term growth.”

Before its unceremonious and sudden closure, Spinkles company leadership had pushed to diversify its business as part of a strategy to recover from a pandemic-era lull.

Chief Executive Dan Mesches told trade publication Nation’s Restaurant News in 2021 that comparable sales had grown since pre-pandemic years. He said the company had ramped up its direct-to-consumer and off-premises offerings and created a line of chocolates made to look like the tops of their cupcakes. The company also introduced a new franchise program with the goal of opening some 200 locations in the U.S. and abroad over three years.

“Innovation is everything for us,” Mesches said.

Sprinkles was known for, among other things, inventive and somewhat corny methods of customer delivery. Besides the trademark ATMs, the company’s vending machines found at many airports made loud, attention-drawing jingles, drawing dramatic complaints and jokes from TikTok travelers. In the 2010s, the company debuted a custom-built truck — “the Sprinklesmobile” — to deliver cupcakes to cities without physical locations.

Frances Hughes, co-founder of online wholesale marketplace Starch, said there’s no question that gourmet sweet treats are still in vogue. But brick-and-mortar locations are much more risky, with more unpredictability. Having large fixed costs makes a business “extremely sensitive to small changes in traffic or frequency,” while online or e-commerce models can be more flexible.

“I think cupcakes as a product still have demand. But the novelty paths that support that rapid retail expansion have passed,” Hughes said.

When Nelson, the Sprinkles founder, posted her somber message about the closure, she asked people to share memories of the company. Many offered heartfelt responses, her comments flooded with stories, for example, of poor college students making the trek to the Beverly Hills location for a limited number of first-come, first-served free cupcakes.

But many of the comments also criticized Nelson’s sale to private equity.

“You sold it to PE and expected it to not close?? What planet are you living on? I don’t begrudge you for selling as that’s entirely your choice but to think any PE firm cares about a company in the slightest is insanity,” one Instagram user said.

Nicole Rucker, an L.A.-based pastry chef and owner of Fat+Flour Pie Shop, said she didn’t observe a decline in the quality of the product after the private-equity takeover. She has been a longtime admirer of the company, driving up from San Diego to sample the cupcakes when its store opened. The simple attractiveness of the box and the logo, and the consistency in the way cupcakes were decorated, “was inspiring,” she said.

“It had a strong hold on people for years,” Rucker said.

Rucker said however that when a private-equity-owned business shutters, she doesn’t feel sadness: “I would rather give my money to a fellow small-business owner, because I would rather know that every dollar and every sale matters.”

Michelle Wainwright, the owner and founder of Indiana-based bakery Cute as a Cupcake! said that although the niche cupcake industry may no longer be in its heyday — with “Sex and the City” no longer airing and competitive baking show “Cupcake Wars” (which Candace Nelson served as a judge on) now canceled — they are still versatile treats, with great potential for creativity.

And they are sentimental to her, because she uses her grandmother’s recipe.

“Cupcakes are still a winner,” Wainwright said. “It’s my belief that a life with out cupcakes is a life without love.”

Business

Bay Area semiconductor testing company to lay off more than 200 workers

Published

15 hours ago

January 11, 2026

Press Room

Bay Area semiconductor testing company to lay off more than 200 workers

Semiconductor testing equipment company FormFactor is laying off more than 200 workers and closing manufacturing facilities as it seeks to cut costs after being hit by higher import taxes.

The Livermore, Calif.,-based company plans to shutter its Baldwin Park facility and cut 113 jobs there on Jan. 30, according to a layoff notice sent to the California Employment Development Department this week. Its facility in Carlsbad is scheduled to close in mid-December later this year, which will result in 107 job losses, according to an earlier notice.

Technicians, engineers, managers, assemblers and other workers are among those expected to lose their jobs, according to the notices.

The company offers semiconductor testing equipment, including probe cards, and other products. The industry has been benefiting from increased AI chip adoption and infrastructure spending.

FormFactor is among the employers that have been shedding workers amid more economic uncertainty.

Companies have cited various reasons for workforce reductions, including restructuring, closures, tariffs, market conditions and artificial intelligence, which can help automate repetitive tasks or generate text, images and code.

The tech industry — a key part of California’s economy — has been hit hard by job losses after the pandemic, which spurred more hiring, and amid the rise of AI tools that are reshaping its workforce.

As tech companies and startups compete fiercely to dominate the AI race, they’ve also cut middle management and other workers as they move faster to release more AI-powered products. They’re also investing billions of dollars into data centers that house computing equipment used to process the massive troves of information needed to train and maintain AI systems.

Companies such as chipmaker Nvidia and ChatGPT maker OpenAI have benefited from the AI boom, while legacy tech companies such as Intel are fighting to keep up.

FormFactor’s cuts are part of restructuring plans that “are intended to better align cost structure and support gross margin improvement to the Company’s target financial model,” the company said in a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week.

The company plans to consolidate its facilities in Baldwin Park and Carlsbad, the filing said.

FormFactor didn’t respond to a request for comment.

FormFactor has been impacted by tariffs and seen its growth slow. The company employs more than 2,000 people and has been aiming to improve its profit margins.

In October, the company reported $202.7 million in third-quarter revenue, down 2.5% from the third quarter of fiscal 2024. The company’s net income was $15.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, down from $18.7 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

FormFactor’s stock has been up 16% since January, surpassing more than $67 per share on Friday.

Business

In-N-Out Burger outlets in Southern California hit by counterfeit bill scam

Published

1 day ago

January 10, 2026

Press Room

In-N-Out Burger outlets in Southern California hit by counterfeit bill scam

Two people allegedly used $100 counterfeit bills at dozens of In-N-Out Burger restaurants in Southern California in a wide-reaching scam.

Glendale Police officials said in a statement Friday that 26-year-old Tatiyanna Foster of Long Beach was taken into custody last month. Another suspect, 24-year-old Auriona Lewis, also of Long Beach, was arrested in October.

Police released images of $100 bills used to purchase a $2.53 order of fries and a $5.93 order of a Flying Dutchman.

The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office charged Lewis with felony counterfeiting and grand theft in November.

Elizabeth Megan Lashley-Haynes, Lewis’s public defender, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Glendale police said that Lewis was arrested in Palmdale in an operation involving the U.S. Marshals Task Force. Foster is expected in court later this month, officials said.

”Lewis was found to be in possession of counterfeit bills matching those used in the Glendale incident, along with numerous gift cards and transaction receipts believed to be connected to similar fraudulent activity,” according to a police statement.

A representative for In-N-Out Burger told KTLA-TV that restaurants in Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties were also targeted by the alleged scam.

“Their dedication and expertise resulted in the identification and apprehension of the suspects, helping to protect our business and our communities,” In-N-Out’s Chief Operations Officer Denny Warnick said. “We greatly value the support of law enforcement and appreciate the vital role they play in making our communities stronger and safer places to live.”

The company, opened in 1948 in Baldwin Park, has restaurants in nine states.

An Oakland location closed in 2024, with the owner blaming crime and slow police response times.

Company chief executive Lynsi Snyder announced last year that she planned to relocate her family to Tennessee, although the burger chain’s headquarters will remain in California.