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Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

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Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

After a near-textbook campaign to rein in inflation by raising interest rates, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell, all but promised Friday to start lowering rates next month — with fingers crossed that it’s not too late to avoid a recession.

From the beginning of the inflationary surge triggered more than three years ago by the economic disruptions of the pandemic, it was clear that raising interest rates could tame price hikes. It was also clear that, if rates stayed too high too long, they could choke the economy into recession.

And few states are showing stronger signs of a possible downturn than California, which has felt the impact of high interest rates more severely than others. Not only has its unemployment rate been among the highest in the land while its job creation rate lagged, but pillar industries such as entertainment and tech have also gone through major disruption and many residents and businesses have left the state.

“Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace,” Powell said in a widely anticipated speech at the annual summer symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said, giving the strongest signal yet of an imminent rate cut.

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Investors cheered the news. Major stock indexes rose almost immediately after he began speaking.

Powell did not tip his hand on the size of the coming rate cut, but most analysts widely expect a small quarter-point move next month and a succession of similar reductions over the next year.

But Powell’s emphasis on doing “everything we can to support a strong labor market” gave some economists reason to think that the Fed could make a half-point move next month. Powell said that the pace of policy actions would “depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Whatever the initial size may be, it should fairly quickly nudge down interest rates on credit cards, auto loans and other consumer financing, but the broader economic effects of Fed policy are likely to take hold only gradually.

And with the political climate at a boil and the U.S. unemployment rising significantly since the start of the year, the Fed may find itself behind the curve in reversing course after what has been, up to now, a successful run of lowering inflation while preventing the economy from falling into a recession — the so-called soft landing.

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“They’ve got to get going,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, who for months has been calling on the Fed to start lowering rates.

Barring major economic changes or extreme volatility in markets, most economists see two to three quarter-point cuts this year and several more over the course of 2025, eventually bringing the Fed’s benchmark rate from the current two-decade high of 5.3% down to around 3%.

Financial markets have already priced in a September quarter-point cut, with stocks having mostly recovered from a big jolt a couple of weeks ago when investors feared the economy was turning down quickly and that it was already too late for the Fed.

Interest rates for a conventional 30-year mortgage were down to a hair below 6.5% this week, from more than 7% as recently as May. Lower rates should also help with auto purchases. Zandi said car sales have slowed as consumers have been waiting for better rates. The average interest rate on a five-year new auto loan was 8.2% in the second quarter, the highest since the Fed’s record keeping began in 2006.

The overriding question with the economy is jobs, both for workers and for political leaders facing a national election in November. And jobs are one of the two basic elements of the Fed’s responsibility. The other is price stability.

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Powell acknowledged on Friday that the Fed initially misjudged the inflation spike in spring 2021, thinking that the pandemic-related surge in prices would be “transitory” and one that the Fed could look past.

Most analysts criticized Fed officials for waiting too long to raise rates, but Powell noted that they were hardly alone. “The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” he said, adding in impromptu remarks, “I think I see some former shipmates out there today,” prompting a moment of laughter from the audience during his 15-minute speech.

It wasn’t until March 2022 when the Fed began raising rates. And, until recently, Powell and his colleagues focused squarely on consumer price inflation, which peaked in June 2022 at 9.1% and has since dropped to just under 3%. With inflation now trending toward the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank’s attention has turned to employment, which has become more worrisome in recent weeks.

First-time unemployment claims have moved up while the number of job openings has shrunk. The nation’s unemployment rate, 4.3% in July, is up from 3.7% in January, and new reports this week indicate that job growth from March 2023 to March 2024 was considerably smaller than previously estimated, though still healthy.

“The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable,” Powell said, adding, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”

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California’s unemployment rate has held steady in the last three months at 5.2%, but that’s still the second-highest in the country after Nevada. (California earlier in the year had the highest jobless figure.) More recently the pace of job growth in California has picked up, but the July report from the state’s Employment Development Department shows workers in California on average are putting in fewer hours of work.

That may not be a bad thing if more workers are opting for a better work-life balance, something that has become more important since the pandemic, said Erica Groshen, an economist and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. And, longer term, it could mean companies are more productive if they’re producing as much or more with less labor input.

But the decline in work hours, she said, could signal weakening demand and pending layoffs if business conditions persist or worsen.

The latest data from the state EDD show average weekly hours of work for all private-sector employees was down to 33.4 hours in July, from 34.5 a year ago. That may not seem like much, but it means a significant corresponding drop in average weekly earnings, which turned negative in July compared with a year earlier. Workers in information, education and health services, professional and business services, and the leisure sector, posted fewer hours of work.

“The softening job market tends to go with reduced hours,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics and finance at Loyola Marymount University. “Typically, firms start cutting back hours before shedding jobs.”

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That is likely even more true now because over the past several years many employers have had trouble finding new workers when they needed them.

Tom Trujillo, president of a family-owned business that operates eight Wienerschnitzel restaurants in the Southland, has held on to his staff of about 140. But like many other fast-food franchisees, Trujillo said he has cut back on overtime and some part-time employees’ hours as a result of the $20 minimum wage that took effect in April for his industry.

In response , he said he’s raised prices and that some of his stores are opening a little later and some dining rooms closing an hour or two earlier.

“I have a reserve credit line, with a zero balance,” Trujillo said. “The lower interest rates would be nice if I have to draw on that.”

But what he said he needs most today are more customers and for them to come more often.

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Whether lower interest rates could help drive greater sales at Trujillo’s and other businesses remains to be seen.

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In a first for the country, voters in Monterey Park ban data centers

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In a first for the country, voters in Monterey Park ban data centers

Residents of Monterey Park voted overwhelmingly to ban data centers on election day, making the San Gabriel Valley city the first in the nation to do so by public vote.

As of Wednesday, 86% of votes were in favor of Measure NDC, the city ban, according to the Los Angeles County registrar-recorder/county clerk.

Other cities and towns have passed moratoriums on data centers, as a wave of opposition sweeps the country. But the Monterey Park vote can only be overturned by another ballot measure, making it the most permanent data center ban in a jurisdiction.

Monterey Park’s City Council had already banned data centers by ordinance, after a proposed 247,000-square-foot data center met an outpouring of public anger and concern. The developer withdrew that plan.

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That facility would have been less than 500 feet away from the nearest home, and would have used three times the electricity of the entire 60,000-person city. Residents said it would have caused noise and air pollution and driven up electricity rates.

“This ensures long-lasting protections for current and future generations,” Amy Wong, co-founder of the group San Gabriel Valley Progressive Action, said of the vote. “It means that future city councils cannot overturn a data center ban, even if data center developers wanted to spend money to fund pro-data center candidates.”

The measure had no formal opposition. The developer of the proposed facility, investment firm HMC StratCap, said it wouldn’t engage in the ballot fight when it withdrew in March.

The Data Center Coalition, an industry trade group, expressed disappointment in the vote.

“It sends a signal that the area is closed for business, both for data centers and for other significant economic development projects,” state policy director Khara Boender said.

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“It deprives local residents of the opportunity to compete for jobs and investment, while also causing the area to relinquish substantial long-term economic investment, high-wage jobs, and critical tax revenue to neighboring areas or other states.”

SGV Progressive Action worked with hyperlocal groups including No Data Center Monterey Park to rally support for the measure.

The group is now focused on stopping data center proposals in the City of Industry and fighting a move by City of Industry, Santa Fe Springs, Vernon and City of Commerce to welcome data centers and other industry with fast-tracked permitting and tax incentives.

City of Industry, in the San Gabriel Valley, and Vernon, south of downtown L.A., are primarily industrial areas, each with around 300 permanent residents. They are employment centers, and tens of thousands of workers commute in daily.

There has been little vocal opposition to data centers among the few residents of these cities. Wong said the protest is primarily coming from the surrounding neighborhoods.

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“If a data center gets built in City of Industry, residents across the region would bear the brunt of pollution and increased utility costs,” Wong said, noting that it is surrounded by 16 other cities and unincorporated communities.

Data center proposals have been limited in California compared to Virginia, Texas, Georgia, Illinois and Arizona, which sit at the center of a recent boom in hyperscaler facilities to power artificial intelligence.

California has the third-most data centers in the country, with 300, but high electricity rates, expensive land and regulatory hurdles mean that fewer, and smaller, facilities are currently planned than in other hotspots.

That doesn’t mean opposition hasn’t been fierce. In Coachella and Imperial County, residents are showing up in droves to protest local proposals.

In the San Gabriel Valley, Montebello, El Monte and Baldwin Park have all enacted temporary moratoriums, and Alhambra recently banned data centers as part of a zoning code update.

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Wong said she hoped the ballot measure vote would galvanize the opposition. “The vote is a testament to the people power of our region,” she said. “Our region is worth protecting, and we won’t let data centers determine our future.”

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Rent-hike ban to protect fire victims ends despite gouging concerns

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Rent-hike ban to protect fire victims ends despite gouging concerns

A rule intended to prevent rent gouging in the wake of the Eaton and Palisades fires has lapsed in Los Angeles County, possibly exposing some renters to hikes.

The executive order that blocked rent increases was issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom amid the devastating wildfires last year. Under the order, landlords couldn’t increase rents by more than 10% above their prefire levels.

The rule, which was supposed to be temporary and was repeatedly extended, ended Friday after a vote to extend it again failed to garner enough votes. Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, whose district includes Pacific Palisades, sounded the alarm in a motion to extend price protections that failed to pass at the Board of Supervisors’ May 19 meeting.

“These price gouging protections continue to be necessary as construction and rebuilding continue, and as thousands of people remain displaced,” the motion said. “Families which signed short-term leases could face drastic price increases of 50% or more without further price gouging protection.”

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Los Angeles County is home to more than 1 million rental properties, though not all of them needed protection from the new rule. There are already stricter rent increase caps for many residences, depending on the location, type and age of the building. Despite the rent control in the region, the people of Los Angeles pay among the highest rents in the country.

It is uncertain whether renters will face rapidly rising rents now that the protection has lapsed. But some real estate experts and policymakers said there was no need for the temporary rule that was part of the governor’s state of emergency.

Supervisors Kathryn Barger, Janice Hahn and Holly Mitchell abstained from voting on the motion to extend the protection, while Supervisors Hilda Solis and Horvath supported it.

“I abstained because I did not see sufficient evidence to justify extending this emergency ordinance, nor did I see evidence to eliminate it entirely,” Hahn said.

Barger’s office said she supported allowing the protections to sunset while waiting to see whether new information emerged.

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“Market data already shows countywide rents are only about 2% above pre-emergency levels and rental inventory has grown,” Barger representative Helen E. Chavez Garcia said. “The Supervisor is also mindful of the burden these ongoing protections place on small property owners throughout the county.”

Mitchell did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

There haven’t been steep rent hikes in neighborhoods within three miles of the Palisades fire, according to a Times analysis of data from Zillow, the property listing company.

In ZIP Codes within three miles of the Palisades fire, rent increased 4.8% from December 2024 to April 2025. In areas around the Eaton fire, which destroyed swaths of Altadena, rent jumped 5.2% in the same period.

In L.A. County, ZIP Codes farther from the fires saw only about a 2% increase.

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A landlords representative, Jesus Rojas of the Apartment Owners Assn. of Greater Los Angeles, told the supervisors during public comment at the meeting that the county’s rent-gouging rules have “long outlived the emergency they were intended to address” and are now being “wrongfully used to harm thousands of rental housing providers throughout the county.”

“There is no proof that multifamily rental housing providers are hugely increasing rents for impacted homeowners,” Rojas said.

Indeed, there are strong signs that the property market in the Los Angeles area has at last begun to cool.

L.A. metro-area rent prices recently fell to a four-year low, with the median rent slipping to $2,167 in December.

Meanwhile, condominium sales had their slowest start of the year in decades. Condo sales in Los Angeles have plummeted to a 20-year low, with fewer than 2,000 units sold in January and February — the worst start to the year since 2005.

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Newsom defended the price-gouging protections shortly after they went into effect.

“In the days following the Los Angeles firestorms, we worked quickly to protect Los Angeles survivors from any form of exploitation,” he said in February 2025. “The state has the tools in place to not only block price gouging during this emergency, but also to prosecute bad actors.”

The Los Angeles County Department of Consumer and Business Affairs said it received more than 2,000 complaints after the fires, alleging that retailers and landlords were taking advantage of people put in hardship by their losses, and sent out more than 2,000 cease-and-desist letters to businesses and landlords for alleged price gouging, said Morine Merritt, who oversees department investigations into consumer and real estate fraud.

“Close to 90% of the complaints that we received involved allegations of rent increases,” Merritt said in an interview. Now that the fire-related protections have expired, existing laws and “regular market conditions determine price increases for goods and services, including rents,” she said.

Crackdowns on fire-related rent gouging have been rare, said Chelsea Kirk of the activist organization the Rent Brigade, which analyzed L.A. County’s rental market in the year after the fires. It reported 18,360 potential examples of price gouging in listings but said that few lawsuits had been filed by authorities so far.

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Last week, Rent Brigade announced what it said was the first private civil lawsuit brought by a family that claimed to be rent-gouged in the aftermath of the wildfires. Plaintiffs Randall and Candy Renick, whose Altadena home was damaged, said they were charged nearly three times the maximum permitted rate for nearly 10 months. They seek restitution of $96,000 plus civil penalties and attorneys’ fees.

The rental market has probably stabilized since the fires, Kirk said, but other families may still be “locked into illegal rents” that they agreed to pay when they were in a rush to find housing after they were displaced.

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Read Nick Bilton’s Letter to Scott Pelley

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Read Nick Bilton’s Letter to Scott Pelley

Dear Mr. Pelley:

I meant what I said in my letter last week to the 60 Minutes team: joining 60 Minutes is the honor of my career and I am grateful to be working alongside the people who have contributed to the most important television journalism brand this country has ever produced. While I’m new to 60 Minutes, I’ve devoted my career to investigative journalism and storytelling. I started this job excited to collaborate and to benefit from the wisdom and experience of the 60 Minutes veterans, with you among them. For that reason, one of the first things I did in my new role was call you to talk and invite you to dinner. It is a profound disappointment that you rejected that overture and chose ambush instead. Yesterday, you hijacked my first meeting with staff to disparage me, my qualifications, and my intentions with remarkable incivility and contempt. I welcome a diversity of viewpoints and respectful debate among the team, but this was nothing of the sort. Yesterday’s performative display of hostility enacted in front of the staff instead of in a civil, private conversation-demonstrated that you have no interest in contributing to the future success of the show, or approaching my new tenure with a mind open to collaboration and progress. I am here to deliver first-in-class news programming, not to make headlines about newsroom drama. I am eager to work alongside those who share this goal.

Despite yesterday’s misconduct, I had hoped that in sitting down with you today we could find a path forward together. You made clear that you are not interested in such a path.

Your antipathy to the future of the show has come through loud and clear. And I have heard you. I therefore write on behalf of CBS News, Inc. (“CBS”) to inform you that your employment with CBS is terminated for cause effective immediately. Enclosed is your formal termination letter.

Sincerely,

Nick Bilton

Executive Producer, 60 Minutes

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