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Election deepfakes and high-profile bankruptcies: Here's what AI will bring in 2024

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Election deepfakes and high-profile bankruptcies: Here's what AI will bring in 2024

If 2023 was the year that AI finally broke into the mainstream, 2024 could be the year it gets fully enmeshed in our lives — or the year the bubble bursts.

But whatever happens, the stage is set for another whirlwind 12 months, coming in the wake of Hollywood’s labor backlash against automation; the rise of consumer chatbots, including OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Elon Musk’s Grok; a half-baked coup against Sam Altman; early inklings of a regulatory crackdown; and, of course, that viral deepfake of Pope Francis in a puffer jacket.

To gauge what we should expect in the new year, The Times asked a slate of experts and stakeholders to send in their 2024 artificial intelligence predictions. The results alternated between enthusiasm, curiosity and skepticism — an appropriate mix of sentiments for a technology that remains both polarizing and unpredictable.

Regulators will step in, and not everyone will be happy about it.

When a surgeon or a stockbroker goes to work, they do so with the backing of a license or certification. Could 2024 be the year we start holding AI to the same standard?

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“In the next year, we may require AI systems to get a professional license,” said Amy Webb, chief executive of the Future Today Institute, a consulting firm. “While certain fields require professional licenses for humans, so far algorithms get to operate without passing a standardized test. You wouldn’t want to see a urologist for surgery who didn’t have a medical license in good standing, right?”

It’d be a development in line with political changes over the last few months, which saw several efforts to more conscientiously regulate this powerful new technology, including a sweeping executive order from President Biden and a draft Senate policy aimed at reining in deepfakes.

“I’m particularly concerned about the potential impact [generative AI] could have on our democracy and institutions in the run-up to November’s elections,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who co-sponsored the deepfakes draft, said of the coming year. “Creators, experts and the public are calling for federal safeguards to outline clear policies around the use of generative AI, and it’s imperative that Congress do so.”

Regulation isn’t just a domestic concern, either. Justin Hughes, a professor of intellectual property and trade law at Loyola Law School, said he expects the European Union will finalize its AI Act next year, triggering a 24-month countdown for broad AI regulations in the EU. Those would include transparency and governance requirements, Hughes said, but also bans on dangerous uses of AI such as to infer someone’s ethnicity and sexual orientation or manipulate their behavior. And as with many European regulations, the effects could trickle down to American firms.

Yet the rising calls for guardrails have already triggered a backlash. In particular, a movement known as effective accelerationism — or “e/acc” — has picked up steam by calling for rapid innovation with limited political oversight.

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Julie Fredrickson, a tech investor aligned with the e/acc movement, said she envisions the new year bringing further tensions around regulation.

“The biggest challenge we will encounter is that using [tools that] compute IS speech and that raises critical constitutional issues here in the United States that any regulatory framework will need to deal with,” Fredrickson said. “The public must make our government understand that it cannot make trade-offs restricting our fundamental rights like speech.”

Authenticity will grow more important than ever.

Imagine being able to know with certainty whether that vacation photo your friend just posted on Instagram was taken in real life or generated on a server farm somewhere.

Mike Gioia, co-founder of the AI workflow startup Pickaxe, thinks it might soon be possible. Specifically, he predicts Apple will launch a “Photographed on iPhone” stamp next year that would certify AI-free photos.

Other experts agree that efforts to bolster trust and authenticity will only grow more important as AI floods the internet with synthetic text, photos and videos (not to mention bots aimed at imitating real people). Andy Parsons, senior director of Adobe’s Content Authenticity Initiative, said he anticipates the increased adoption of “Content Credentials,” or metadata embedded in digital media files that, almost like a nutrition label, would record who made something and with what tools.

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Such stopgaps could prove particularly important as America enters a presidential election year — its first in history that will take place amid a torrent of cheap, viral AI media.

Bill Burton, former deputy press secretary for the Obama administration, predicted: “The most viewed and engaged videos in the 2024 election are generated by AI.”

The steam engine of innovation will keep chugging along …

Last year brought substantial advances in AI technology, from the launch of mainstream products — ChatGPT, deemed the fastest-growing consumer app in history, released its fourth version — to continued breakthroughs in AI research and development.

Many AI insiders think that pace of innovation will continue into the new year.

“Every business and consumer app user will be using AI and they won’t know it,” said Ted Ross, general manager of the City of Los Angeles Information Technology Agency. “I predict that artificial intelligence features and high-visibility [generative] AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, will rapidly integrate into existing business and consumer applications with the user often unaware.”

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Other developments could be more niche but no less impactful. Some experts predict a rise in leaner and more targeted alternatives to the “large language models” that underlie ChatGPT and Grok. The AI itself could get better at self-improvement, too.

“There hasn’t been a lot of tooling that targets speeding up AI research,” said Anastasis Germanidis, chief technology officer of the synthetic video startup Runway. “We’ll likely see more of those tools emerge in the coming year,” including to help write or debug code.

… Unless the bubble bursts.

The AI market is frothy right now, but not everyone thinks the glory days can last.

“A hyped AI company will go bankrupt or get acquired for a ridiculously low price” at some point in 2024, Clément Delangue, chief executive of the open source AI development community Hugging Face, wrote in a recent tweet.

Eric Siegel, a former Columbia University professor and the author of “The AI Playbook: Mastering the Rare Art of Machine Learning Deployment,” has struck an even warier tone.

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“There will be growing consternation as the lack of a killer [generative] AI app becomes increasingly apparent,” Siegel told The Times, referencing an app that would drive widespread adoption of AI. “Disillusionment will ultimately set in as today’s grandiose expectations fail to be met.”

Eventually, he warned, we could even enter an “AI Winter,” or a period of declining interest — and investment — in the technology.

But that is probably still a few years away, he added: “The current ‘craze’ has built incredible momentum, and that momentum will continue to be fueled as new impressive-looking and potentially valuable capabilities continue to pop up.”

Even the skeptics, it seems, anticipate a banner year for AI.

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From LAX to hospitals to Starbucks, global tech outage brings chaos and frustration

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From LAX to hospitals to Starbucks, global tech outage brings chaos and frustration

Airlines, banks, healthcare systems, government agencies and other industries across California scrambled to recover Friday from the effects of a widespread global technology outage.

Roughly 100 flights had been canceled by midmorning Friday at Los Angeles International Airport, and even more were delayed. Overnight, travelers facing long delays and cancellations were resigned to trying to get some sleep on the airport’s well-trodden carpeted floor. Some used their luggage as pillows.

At some California hospitals, staff said the outage prevented them from accessing patient charts.

Starbucks faced major disruption to its mobile ordering service throughout the day Friday, meaning caffeine seekers had to place their orders in person at stores, resulting in longer-than-typical lines. Some locations closed for the day.

Some government agencies reduced services.

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Travelers at other California airports were facing issues similar to LAX’s.

The chaos stemmed from a faulty update sent by CrowdStrike, a Texas cybersecurity company whose software is widely used, that interfered with the core functions of computers running Microsoft Windows. This caused Microsoft’s infamous “blue screen of death” to pop up and convey a message along the lines of, “Your PC ran into a problem and needs to restart.” The outage was not a security incident or a cyberattack, CrowdStrike said.

The company’s chief executive, George Kurtz, said Friday morning that a fix had been made.

“We understand the gravity of the situation and are deeply sorry for the inconvenience and disruption. We are working with all impacted customers to ensure that systems are back up and they can deliver the services their customers are counting on,” Kurtz wrote on X.

Meanwhile, the defect rippled across technology worldwide. There were reports that some airports were beginning to restart service, but it was unclear when operations would return to normal.

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The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services wrote on X that officials are “closely monitoring the global software outage.”

“Initial reports indicate minor state system outages,” the office wrote. “However, all 911, public safety communications and critical infrastructure is functioning as expected.”

LAX first started to see glitches late Thursday. The outages were initially limited to Frontier Airlines and a few other carriers and were caused partially by a software issue with Navitaire, a boarding pass printing system. The issue grew as more and more airlines began to face the same problems. Delta, American and United airlines were also affected.

A representative for LAX emphasized that the issues facing the airport did not affect flight safety. When a patch of code that caused the problem was fixed in CrowdStrike, the airport started to see airlines come back online, but it is still facing many more delays and cancellations than usual.

On Friday, LAX had more than 70 cancellations before 7 a.m., compared with 14 all day on Wednesday. An hour later that number had swelled to 100 cancellations and 188 delays. At San Francisco International Airport, the numbers were similar. There were 16 cancellations on Wednesday compared with more than 70 Friday morning.

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More than 8,800 flights were delayed and more than 2,600 had been canceled across the United States, according to data provided by FlightAware.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was in touch with leadership at Los Angeles World Airports who were “working actively to resolve travel issues,” said Zach Seidl, a spokesperson for the mayor.

“Travelers at LAX and other regional airports should plan ahead for potential delays,” he said.

Frustration among airline employees and passengers was widespread at the airport. Some tried to sleep on a luggage conveyor belt before an airport employee shouted for them to get up.

“It was terrible. It is terrible,” said Elissa Moore, 29. “Cause we’re still going through it.”

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Shortly before 6 a.m., a Delta representative took to the intercom to tell passengers that the airport was still allowing planes to land, but that for the time being, all outbound flights were grounded. He advised travelers who are from L.A. to “go home” and check for updates on the company’s app or website.

He added that the company’s system was completely shut down and that the resulting crippling of flight operations was “worse than 9/11.”

Passengers reported waits of up to two hours to get through security into Terminal 2, as many people whose flights were canceled were instructed to retrieve their baggage before trying to rebook their flight.

Passengers whose flights had been canceled stood sullenly in line to rebook but could not complete that task either because of the outages. One video showed a woman at LAX hugging a Delta employee as she cried.

Outside were dozens of planes on the tarmac with nowhere to go.

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Gabrielle Watson, an L.A. DJ and music producer, arrived at LAX on Thursday night to catch her 11:59 p.m. United Airlines flight to Chicago with a connection to Columbus, Ohio, so she could play a set Friday at the Secret Dreams Festival.

Watson knew there were problems immediately when she got to her gate and saw the blue screens displayed. Still, her flight boarded and she remained on the plane for hours as delays ravaged the airport.

After about three hours, passengers deplaned and Watson went home, realizing she was not going to make her connecting flight in Chicago. Her flight was canceled about five hours after its scheduled departure time.

“There were a lot of upset people,” she said. “They were spread around on floors everywhere trying to be comfortable waiting for information. It was very stressful and a bit dark.”

Some observers have argued the incident demonstrates the risk of having one potential point of failure affecting millions of computers. At the very least the disruption shows the need for better software in crucial systems, some experts say.

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U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said that although new technology has brought major benefits to efficiency and safety, they also have specific vulnerabilities that must be addressed.

“These are the kinds of disruptions that nobody wants to experience, and we’ll be pressing airlines and the software community on what they’re doing to get ahead of this for the next time,” he said.

The effects of the outage went beyond aviation.

Within the Providence healthcare system, IT teams worked overnight to restore functionality in electronic health records. The healthcare company noted that other clinical applications and workstations were still not up and running as of Friday afternoon.

Cedars-Sinai Medical Center said it was also experiencing fallout from the software outage, though the hospital remained open Friday.

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“We are actively working to address the issue and minimize any impacts,” the hospital said in a statement. “We thank our patients and our staff for their flexibility during this unexpected event.”

The outage even upended people’s coffee fix.

“We continue to welcome and serve customers in the vast majority of our stores and drive-thrus and are doing everything we can to bring all systems online as quickly as possible. We apologize for any inconvenience,” said Jaci Anderson, a spokesperson for Starbucks.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles was forced to scale back services at offices statewide. Online services and kiosks were not affected by the outage, according to the agency.

People in California’s jails were unable to make or receive phone calls because of the outage. The software update affected ViaPath, the communication technology used in jails, according to the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. It is not clear when the system will be up and running.

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“CDCR understands how important it is for incarcerated people to stay connected with their loved ones and is diligently working to resolve this matter,” a spokesperson told The Times.

The Los Angeles County Superior Court system was forced to postpone cases in which litigants were scheduled to appear remotely Friday. The court said in a statement it is “rapidly working to reestablish connectivity.”

A terminal at the Port of Los Angeles and four terminals at the Port of Long Beach were also temporarily affected by the outage overnight. But the ports were operating normally Friday, officials said.

KGO-TV, the ABC affiliate in San Francisco, couldn’t go on air as scheduled for its 11 p.m. newscast. Instead anchors delivered the day’s top headlines via Facebook live.

Times staff writers Joseph Serna, Ruben Vives, Libor Jany, David Zahniser, Jon Healey and Sandra McDonald and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Southern California's jobs picture is improving; glimmer of hope seen in Hollywood employment

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Southern California's jobs picture is improving; glimmer of hope seen in Hollywood employment

California’s unemployment rate held steady last month and the overall jobs picture looked considerably brighter than earlier this year, according to new government data released Friday.

Still, at 5.2%, the state’s jobless rate is tied with Nevada for the highest in the country; the national unemployment figure averaged 4.1% last month.

But with 22,500 jobs added over the month, California is on pace with the rest of the nation.

And the number of unemployed people in the state dropped for the third straight month in June, falling below 1 million for the first time this year, according to seasonally adjusted data from the state’s Employment Development Department.

Significantly, some key economic engines, especially in Southern California, saw notable gains or improvement.

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Transportation and warehousing employers statewide added almost 7,000 jobs last month. In doing so, that sector posted the first year-over-year increase in payroll growth since January 2023.

“It’s a good sign for the Inland Empire,” said Manfred Keil, an economics professor at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, referring to the large number of warehouses and distribution centers that blanket parts of the counties east of Los Angeles.

He noted that the ports of L.A. and Long Beach have been busier this year, in part because of the diversion of cargo to the West Coast from the drought-stricken Panama Canal. That’s provided a lift to the region’s logistics industry, which Keil said has been coming back after a long period of pandemic-related ups and downs. “The adjustment is over,” he said.

Southern California also saw a glimmer of hope in the latest jobs data for the film industry.

Employment in the motion picture and sound recording industries rose by 3,000 jobs last month, to 121,200 statewide. While that number isn’t adjusted for seasonal variations, the data in recent months suggest employment may be improving after sharp declines over much of the last two years amid the industry’s labor strikes, streaming wars and other challenges.

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Overall, California’s job growth in June was led by the combined trade and transportation sector, government and information, which includes jobs in entertainment, according to the EDD.

Healthcare and social assistance, which have long been the strongest job creators in the state and nation, took a bit of a pause in June.

Payrolls at hotels and restaurants, as well as the entire grouping of leisure and hospitality businesses, were flat.

And there were outright losses in the state’s construction and manufacturing industries, which have been cutting jobs for most of the year.

In addition, tech sector employment remains lackluster.

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Statewide, payrolls at computer systems and design firms, for example, were down in June on a year-over-over basis for the 16th straight month. And the recent announcement by Elon Musk that he plans to relocate SpaceX and X to Texas won’t help.

If he follows through with it, Musk’s move would complete “the hollowing out of the once vibrant tech hub in the mid-Market area of San Francisco,” said Michael Bernick, an employment attorney at Duane Morris in San Francisco. “X’s exit completes the exodus started by Uber in 2019, followed by Block (formerly Square) in 2022 and Reddit in 2023,” he said.

For all industries, the number of payroll jobs in California rose 224,000 in June, or 1.3%, from a year ago. That compares with a growth rate of 1.7% for the nation as a whole, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Elon Musk revived L.A. aerospace with SpaceX. Will it thrive without him?

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Elon Musk revived L.A. aerospace with SpaceX. Will it thrive without him?

When Elon Musk decided to start a rocket company two decades ago, he headed down Interstate 5 and the 405 and didn’t stop until he reached the South Bay, the center of the region’s aerospace industry, hard hit by a drop in defense spending after the Cold War.

There, the Silicon Valley entrepreneur, flush with cash from the sale of PayPal, founded Space Exploration Technologies in 2002 and defied skeptics, building his startup into a $210-billion giant and fueling a revitalization of the shrunken industry.

This week, the Hawthorne company’s future in the region was thrown into doubt when Musk posted on X that he planned to move SpaceX’s headquarters to the outskirts of Brownsville, Texas, where it is developing its massive Starship rocket for planned trips to the moon and, someday, Mars.

It’s unclear what the fallout will be locally.

SpaceX hasn’t commented on how many jobs will be affected by the relocation, and industry observers say it’s likely the company will maintain significant manufacturing operations in Los Angeles County, where it employed about 6,000 people in 2023, according to an annual survey by the Los Angeles Business Journal.

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But the relocation is undoubtedly a loss to the region’s revived space industry.

A leader in the space economy

“SpaceX has been one of the pillars of the Southern California new space economy,” said Kevin Klowden, the Milken Institute’s executive director of MI Finance. The move “is significant symbolically in that it shows Southern California isn’t indispensable in an industry where it clearly is a leader.”

The aerospace industry was pioneered in L.A. County, with the first rockets set off in the Arroyo Seco near Caltech in the 1930s — the humble origins of what was to become the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a leader first in rocket and satellite development and later in interplanetary spacecraft.

Douglas Aircraft, Lockheed, Northrop and other companies built hundreds of thousands of planes during World War II and maintained defense work here. In Downey, North American Aviation built the command module of the Apollo 11 spacecraft that landed astronauts on the moon. Rockwell International built the space shuttles in Downey and Palmdale.

The massive defense spending cuts after the collapse of the Soviet Union devastated the industry, dropping employment in the county from about 130,000 in 1990 to less than half that a decade later — but with its heritage, talent pool and world-class universities, the region was a logical place for SpaceX to set up shop.

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A new, smaller, Southern California aerospace economy has since developed, building on the remaining operations of legacy companies and technological advancements — even as other centers have emerged, such as Kent, Wash., where Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space company is located.

Virgin Galactic, the space tourism company founded by British billionaire Richard Branson in 2004, is based in Tustin and has its design and manufacturing operations in Mojave, where it also performs test flights. Its commercial operations are in New Mexico.

Rocket Lab, a maker of lightweight rockets that launch small satellites, moved its headquarters to Long Beach just three years ago.

People walk on a pier beneath the contrail from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base on April 1 in San Clemente.

(Mario Tama / Getty Images)

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And former SpaceX employees have founded dozens of startups. Crunchbase, which tracks venture capital and startups, tallies more than 50. Local ones include Relativity Space, a Long Beach maker of reusable rockets; Varda Space Industries, an El Segundo company developing drugs in low-Earth orbit; and L.A. telemetry startup Sift, which raised $7.5 million in venture funding last year.

“SpaceX isn’t unique, but it’s the star,” said Klowden, noting the “ecosystem” that has sprung up around it.”

While Musk’s declaration Tuesday was prompted by a public policy dispute — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decision to sign a bill prohibiting school districts from mandating that teachers notify parents about a student’s change in gender identity — Musk has long complained about the state’s regulatory environment and has a history of tangling with government officials.

He moved Tesla’s headquarters from Palo Alto to Austin, Texas, in 2021 after Alameda County ordered the company in 2020 to halt production amid the COVID pandemic. Separately, the billionaire noted crime concerns in also tweeting Tuesday that he plans to move X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, from San Francisco to Austin.

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Klowden said he believed Musk has been considering the idea of moving SpaceX, though it’s still unclear exactly whether Musk plans to transfer a handful of executives, additional employees or all of the operations, which is not seen as likely. Neither Musk nor SpaceX has offered clarification. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

City officials were also grappling with the announcement.

“We understand that business decisions are driven by a variety of factors, and we remain committed to fostering a thriving business environment in Hawthorne,” Alex Vargas, the city’s mayor, said in a statement. He added: “[W]e want to reassure our workforce and community that the city of Hawthorne is taking proactive steps to mitigate the impact of SpaceX’s potential relocation.”

Much of the skepticism regarding Musk’s SpaceX tweet revolves around how the Tesla move was carried out. The electric vehicle maker produces its Model Y SUV and new Cybertruck in Austin but still operates a factory in Fremont, where it makes multiple models. Last year, Tesla said it was opening a new global engineering headquarters in Palo Alto previously occupied by the headquarters of Hewlett-Packard.

A flight to Texas?

But some familiar with the company think the headquarters relocation announcement could presage a larger presence in Texas.

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Tim Buzza, a former SpaceX vice president, said that while the company builds its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon capsules that service the International Space Station in Hawthorne, the company’s future is the massive Starship rocket being developed at the Brownsville facility called Starbase on the Gulf of Mexico.

“The center for the next level of execution for SpaceX is Starbase. The direction and the momentum of the company is already moving to Texas,” said Buzza, who was one of the first five employees at SpaceX, worked there for 12 years and remains in contact with many at the company.

SpaceX is seeking approval to launch 90 rockets from Vandenberg Space Force Base by 2026, a sharp increase from its previous plans for the Santa Barbara County military base. Buzza said the launches are important for the Starlink satellite broadband network SpaceX is building, since they put the satellites into a polar orbit, complementing Florida launches that put them in an equatorial orbit.

However, the Starship rocket — taller and more powerful than the Saturn 5 that launched Apollo astronauts to the moon — could launch many more satellites than the Falcon 9. SpaceX has opened a new Starlink factory outside Austin, and last month Starship completed its fourth test flight from Starbase, dubbed its “Gateway to Mars.”

The company has been building its operations at Starbase and this month asked the Federal Aviation Administration for permission for up to 25 annual launches of Starship and its Super Heavy rocket, a more powerful derivative of its Falcon 9. The company operates an engine testing facility in McGregor, Texas.

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Klowden questioned the company’s ability to move or attract large numbers of workers to the Brownsville area, at least in the immediate future, given the lack of housing and other infrastructure. But Buzza said SpaceX overcame many of the same issues in McGregor. He doesn’t think Musk would move Falcon 9 production or the Dragon capsule program from Hawthorne, because both may be phased out over time.

Still, even the loss of SpaceX’s executive operations to Texas would be a blow to Los Angeles and the Golden State, which have suffered a humiliating series of corporate defections over the last few decades. L.A.-area companies that have moved headquarters elsewhere include Lockheed, Northrop Grumman and more recently Aecom, a global engineering firm. Software giant Oracle left Redwood City in Silicon Valley for Austin in 2020 (and has since announced a move to Nashville).

“Whenever any company announces that they might or they will leave the region, it is not good for us. We definitely need to do a much better job in terms of business retention,” said Stephen Cheung, chief executive of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.

However, he said the region’s aerospace economy is still robust and has shown an ability to evolve. After the bankruptcy last year of Branson’s separate Virgin Orbit rocket company, Rocket Lab acquired the defunct company’s former Long Beach headquarters, he noted.

That move mirrors SpaceX’s evolution. Its first location in L.A. County was in El Segundo, but as it grew it moved in 2007 into an old Northrop site in Hawthorne that had been converted into a factory for the production of Boeing 747 fuselages.

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Aerospace Corp., an El Segundo federally funded nonprofit that provides scientific and technical support to the aerospace industry, announced in March that it was moving its executive offices to Virginia but simultaneously announced it was investing $100 million in its local campus.

The region is still home too for major defense work.

Northrop Grumman is building the new B-21 digital bomber in Palmdale, which is slated to replace the B-2 stealth bomber it built decades ago in Pico Rivera. The high desert city also is home to Lockheed Martin’s famed “Skunk Works,” a secretive, cutting-edge military research and development facility.

Klowden said that for some SpaceX workers a move to South Texas could be a no-go, and he expects other aerospace companies will attempt poach its workers. Indeed, Orange County asteroid mining company Astroforge Inc. said it was hiring in a reply to Musk’s SpaceX tweet.

Earlier this week, workers streaming in and out of SpaceX’s Hawthorne complex declined to speak to a Times reporter. However, a salesman for SpaceX vendor GF Machining Solutions who asked his name not be used, said he hopes Musk was not serious about relocating the headquarters to Texas.

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“Well, I wouldn’t want that to happen, because I’ve lived in California all my life and I would lose that account if SpaceX moved,” the Corona resident said. “I’m not moving to Texas.”

Times staff writer Ashley Ahn and Bloomberg News contributed to this report.

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