Business
Dollar Doubts Dominate Gathering of Global Economic Leaders
On the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to convey an important message about the United States dollar.
Speaking to a crowd of global policymakers, regulators and investors, Mr. Bessent sought to allay fears that had ballooned in recent weeks about the dollar’s global standing and the country’s role as the safest haven during times of stress. He reiterated that the administration would continue to have a “strong-dollar policy” and affirmed that it would remain the currency that the rest of the world wanted to hold, even though it had weakened against most major currencies.
For participants at the event, Mr. Bessent’s comments were a needed salve after a bruising couple of weeks in financial markets as a result of President Trump’s trade war. Violent swings in stocks, coinciding with the weakening of the dollar as investors fled U.S. government bonds, had incited panic.
The fact that Mr. Bessent found it necessary to emphasize that message in front of such a big crowd underscored how precarious the situation had become since Mr. Trump returned to the White House less than 100 days ago. What now looms large are uncomfortable questions about what happens if the international community starts to lose faith in the dollar and other U.S. assets, something that economists warn would be costly for Americans.
“People are playing through scenarios that previously had been judged unthinkable, and they’re playing them through in a very serious kind of way in the spirit of contingency planning,” said Nathan Sheets, the chief economist at Citigroup and a Treasury official in the Obama administration.
“If the United States is going to pursue aggressive economic policies, it’s natural for the rest of the world to step back and say, ‘Well, do we want to buy U.S. assets as we have in the past?’”
‘New World Order’
At a similar gathering hosted by the I.M.F. and World Bank six months ago, attendees were preparing for an entirely different economic backdrop. Convening less than two weeks before the presidential election, they still had in their sights a rare soft landing in which the major central banks finished their fight against high inflation while managing to avoid a recession.
The tariffs Mr. Trump had been talking about on the campaign trail were top of mind, but for the most part, they were viewed as a negotiating tactic. Any turn toward protectionism was widely expected to push up the value of the dollar compared with other currencies. The rationale was that tariffs would lower demand for imported goods, since they would make them more expensive for American consumers, and over time result in fewer dollars being exchanged for foreign currencies.
But since Inauguration Day, the opposite has occurred. An index that tracks the dollar against a basket of major trading partners has fallen nearly 10 percent in the last three months. It now hovers near a three-year low. The sharpest slide came after Mr. Trump announced large tariffs on nearly all imports in April. While he temporarily reversed course, the dollar has yet to recoup its losses.
There are reasons not to read too much into its recent weakening. The U.S. economic outlook has fundamentally changed. Businesses are “frozen” by tariffs, Christopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said this week as he warned about layoffs stemming from the uncertainty.
Economists have sharply scaled back their estimates for growth while raising their estimates for inflation, a combination that carries a whiff of stagflation. In that environment, it is not surprising that the dollar and other U.S. assets appear less appealing.
Dollar depreciation — even if extreme — also does not necessarily translate to a loss of stature in the global financial system. There have been previous big drops in the value of the dollar that have not incited a wholesale shift away from the currency’s primacy, said Jonas Goltermann, the deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.
But at this year’s spring meetings, there was a palpable sense that something more ominous could be taking place. Joyce Chang, JPMorgan’s chair of global research, noted a disconnect between domestic and international participants at the conference that the Wall Street bank hosted during the week of the meetings.
U.S.-based investors appeared less concerned about a structural shift away from the country’s assets and more focused on the ways in which Mr. Trump could course-correct on his economic policies. International investors were consumed by the prospects of a “regime change” in the financial system and a “new world order,” Ms. Chang said.
Mr. Trump had recently escalated his attacks on Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, fanning fears about how much the administration would encroach on the central bank’s independence. That longstanding separation from the White House is broadly seen as essential to the smooth functioning of the financial system.
“The dollar’s role in the system was not ordained from above,” said Mark Sobel, a former Treasury official who is the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. “It’s a reflection of the properties of the United States.”
Those include a large economy that transacts with the world; the financial system’s deepest, most liquid capital markets; a credible central bank; and the rule of law.
“I do believe that Trump is doing permanent damage,” Mr. Sobel said.
Few Alternatives
It is hard to overstate the dominance of the dollar globally, meaning there are real limitations to how significantly private and public investors can diversify away from it, even if they want to.
Most trade is invoiced in dollars. It is the leading currency for international borrowing. Central banks also prefer to hold dollar assets more than anything else, and by a wide margin.
“Anybody who’s looking for diversification has to be realistic,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, the chief economist at BNP Paribas. “Reserve assets, by definition, have to be liquid.”
Alternatives do exist, but they are hobbled by their own weaknesses. China lacks open, deep and liquid capital markets, and its currency does not float freely, tarnishing its appeal globally. Top European leaders — including Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank — have talked more readily about bolstering the prominence of the euro, something that is considered more plausible now that countries like Germany are stepping up their spending. But the amount of available euro-denominated safe assets pales in comparison with that of U.S. capital markets.
Still, in the recent period of volatility, investors have found a number of places to take cover. The euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen have been clear beneficiaries. Gold has rallied sharply, too.
“You don’t need to have the role of the dollar as a reserve asset go to zero,” said Ms. Mateos y Lago. “A multipolar system can totally work.”
Burden or Privilege?
When asked at Wednesday’s event, which was hosted by the Institute for International Finance, whether the dollar’s reserve currency status was a burden or a privilege, Mr. Bessent said: “I actually am not sure that anyone else wants it.”
But economists warn that Americans would be losing clear benefits if the government was too cavalier about the dollar’s shedding its special status.
The country’s exporters would reap rewards, as a weaker dollar would make their products more competitive. However, that advantage could come at the expense of reduced spending power for Americans abroad and higher borrowing costs at a time when the government has huge financing needs.
Despite the pain that Americans may have to bear, the global financial system would be far more “resilient” if other currencies shared the dollar’s global role over time, said Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. During times of stress, that would mean multiple sources of liquidity.
However, three months into Mr. Trump’s second term, Mr. Eichengreen warned that a “dire scenario is now on the table” — a sharp sell-off of dollar-denominated assets into cash.
“A chaotic rush out of the dollar would be a crisis,” he said. “All of a sudden, the world would not have the international liquidity that 21st-century globalization depends on.”
Business
Novartis opens new manufacturing plant in Carlsbad
Swiss drugmaker Novartis opened a new 10,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Carlsbad to make cancer drugs, as part of its promised $23 billion investment push to build out its domestic U.S. facilities over the next five years.
The plant will produce compounds needed for radioligand therapy (RLT), a form of precision medicine that enables the delivery of radiation directly on cancerous tumors while limiting damage to surrounding cells.
“Radioligand therapy is a breakthrough we’ve unlocked at scale, made possible by reimagining how innovation reaches patients,” said Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis. “As the global leader in RLT for more than seven years, we’ve advanced this technology with a deep belief in its power to transform cancer care.”
This Carlsbad manufacturing facility will be Novartis’ third radioligand therapy production site in the U.S., and will help meet future demand for doses for patients in western states and Hawaii.
“The opening of our Carlsbad facility underscores our strong commitment to the U.S. and dedication to bringing this pioneering treatment to patients across the country,” Narasimhan of Novartis said.
The firm said it was also expanding existing sites in North Carolina, Indiana and New Jersey.
The Trump administration has exerted political and regulatory pressure on pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices and increase domestic drug production through executive orders and threats of tariffs.
Some companies, such as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have been engaged in public negotiations and struck deals to reduce the price of popular drugs such as Ozempic and Zepbound. Others, such as Novartis, have promised to beef up domestic investments.
In April, Novartis said it would invest $50 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, and has been setting up domestic supply chains for its high-margin business of radioligand therapy. Of this, $23 billion will be used to build and expand ten U.S. sites.
The company announced that it will set up additional radioligand therapy manufacturing facilities in Florida and Texas, and will establish its second global R&D hub in San Diego.
“We commend Novartis for supporting our broader mission of bringing manufacturing capacity in the United States,” FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in a press release on Monday. “Our unique partnership approach is working.”
Business
Paramount sheds another 1,600 workers as David Ellison team digs in
Tech scion David Ellison marked his 96th day running Paramount by disclosing an upbeat financial outlook for next year and a plan to reduce an additional 1,600 workers.
Monday’s conference call with analysts was the first time Ellison, Paramount’s chairman and chief executive, directly addressed Wall Street after merging his production company, Skydance Media, with Paramount in August — an $8-billion deal that ushered the Redstone family from the entertainment stage.
One of Ellison’s top priorities will be to reverse decades of under-investment in programming. Paramount plans to increase content spending by $1.5 billion next year, including nearly doubling the number of movies that it releases. The Melrose Avenue studio intends to boost output from eight releases to 15 that are planned for next year.
Investing in technology is another priority, which Ellison referred to as one of its “north stars.” Executives want to build streaming service Paramount+ as the economics crumble for Paramount’s once profitable cable television division, which includes Nickelodeon, MTV and Comedy Central. Paramount also owns CBS stations and the CBS broadcast network.
Paramount announced it will be hiking streaming subscription fees — Paramount+ plans now are offered at $7.99 a month and $12.99 a month — although executives declined to say how much. The goal is to turn its streaming operations profitable this year.
Paramount said the workforce reduction of 1,600 people stemmed from the company’s divestiture late last month of television stations in Chile and Argentina. This comes on top of 1,000 job cuts last month, primarily in the U.S. The company said one of its goals was to operate more efficiently.
More than 800 people — or about 3.5% of the company’s workforce — were laid off in June, prior to the Ellison family takeover.
Ellison and his team have been looking to reduce the company’s workforce by 15%.
On Monday, Paramount executives said they should be able to realize about $3 billion in cost cuts — $1 billion more than initially advertised. The company’s goal is to complete its cost reductions within two years.
The earnings report comes as Paramount has been pursuing Warner Bros. Discovery, a proposed merger that would unite two of Hollywood’s original film studios and bulk up Paramount by adding the HBO Max streaming service, a larger portfolio of cable channels, pioneering cable news service CNN and the historic Warner Bros. studio lot in Burbank.
Paramount executives declined to discuss its dealings for Warner Bros. Discovery, which has rejected three offers, including a $58-billion bid for the entire company. Ellison’s father, billionaire Larry Ellison, has agreed to back Paramount’s bid.
However, his son spoke broadly about its motivations for any acquisition during the conference call.
“First and foremost, we’re focused on what we’re building at Paramount and transforming the company,” David Ellison said. “There’s no must-haves for us. …. It’s always going to be, how do we accelerate and improve our north-star principles?”
Total revenue for Paramount’s third quarter was $6.7 billion, flat compared with the year-earlier period. Paramount reported a net loss of $257 million for the quarter.
Paramount+ and other streaming services grew by 1.4 million subscribers to 79 million, although 1.2 million of those consumers benefit from free trials. Quarterly Revenue for the streaming operations, including Pluto TV, was up 17%.
The cost-cutting comes as Ellison, 42, has accelerated spending in other areas, including agreeing to pay $7.7 billion for the rights to UFC fights and $1.25 billion over five years to Matt Stone and Trey Parker to continue creating their “South Park” cartoon.
His team, including former Netflix programming chief Cindy Holland, also lured Matt and Ross Duffer, the duo behind “Stranger Things,” away from Netflix. Paramount also paid $150 million to buy the Free Press and bring its co-founder, Bari Weiss, to the company as CBS News editor in chief.
The company also signed a 10-year lease on a film and television production facility under construction in New Jersey, a move that will give the entertainment company access to that state’s tax incentive program.
In a blow, however, Taylor Sheridan, the prolific creator behind the “Yellowstone” franchise, will be packing his bags. Sheridan, who is under contract with Paramount through 2028, made a deal to develop movies and future shows for NBCUniversal after executives he worked with at Paramount departed the company when Ellison took over.
For 2026, the company expects to generate total revenue of $30 billion and adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization of $3.5 billion.
Shares closed at $15.25, up 1%, before the earnings were announced.
Business
Republicans fret as shutdown threatens Thanksgiving travel chaos
WASHINGTON — Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration are increasingly anxious that an ongoing standoff with Democrats over reopening the government may drag into Thanksgiving week, one of the country’s busiest travel periods.
Already, hundreds of flights have been canceled since the Federal Aviation Administration issued an unprecedented directive limiting flight operations at the nation’s biggest airports, including in Los Angeles, New York, Miami and Washington, D.C.
Sean Duffy, the secretary of transportation, told Fox News on Thursday that the administration is prepared to mitigate safety concerns if the shutdown continues into the holiday week, leaving air traffic controllers without compensation over multiple payroll cycles. But “will you fly on time? Will your flight actually go? That is yet to be seen,” the secretary said.
While under 3% of flights have been grounded, that number could rise to 20% by the holiday week, he added.
“It’s really hard — really hard — to navigate a full month of no pay, missing two pay periods. So I think you’re going to have more significant disruptions in the airspace,” Duffy said. “And as we come into Thanksgiving, if we’re still in a shutdown posture, it’s gonna be rough out there. Really rough.”
Senate Republicans said they are willing to work through the weekend, up through Veterans Day, to come up with an agreement with Democrats that could end the government shutdown, which is already the longest in history.
But congressional Democrats believe their leverage has only grown to extract more concessions from the Trump administration as the shutdown goes on.
A strong showing in races across the country in Tuesday’s elections buoyed optimism among Democrats that the party finally has some momentum, as it focuses its messaging on affordability and a growing cost-of-living crisis for the middle class.
Democrats have withheld the votes needed to reopen the government over Republican refusals to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits. As a result, Americans who get their healthcare through the ACA marketplace have begun seeing dramatic premium hikes since open enrollment began on Nov. 1 — further fueling Democratic confidence that Republicans will face a political backlash for their shutdown stance.
Now, Democratic demands have expanded, insisting Republicans guarantee that federal workers get paid back for their time furloughed or working without pay — and that those who were fired get their jobs back.
A bill introduced by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, called the Shutdown Fairness Act, would ensure that federal workers receive back pay during a government funding lapse. But Democrats have objected to a vote on the measure that’s not tied to their other demands, on ACA tax breaks and the status of fired workers.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has proposed passing a clean continuing resolution already passed by the House followed by separate votes on three bills that would fund the government through the year. But his Democratic counterpart said Friday he wants to attach a vote on extending the ACA tax credits to an extension of government funding.
Democrats, joined by some Republicans, are also demanding protections built in to any government spending bills that would safeguard federal programs against the Trump administration withholding funds appropriated by Congress, a process known as impoundment.
President Trump, for his part, blamed the ongoing shutdown for Tuesday’s election results earlier this week, telling Republican lawmakers that polling shows the continuing crisis is hurting their party. But he also continues to advocate for Thune to do away with the filibuster, a core Senate rule requiring 60 votes for bills that fall outside the budget reconciliation process, and simply reopen the government with a vote down party lines.
“If the filibuster is terminated, we will have the most productive three years in the history of our country,” Trump told reporters on Friday at a White House event. “If the filibuster is not terminated, then we will be in a slog, with the Democrats.”
So far, Thune has rejected that request. But the majority leader said Thursday that “the pain this shutdown has caused is only getting worse,” warning that 40 million Americans risk food insecurity as funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program lapses.
The Trump administration lost a court case this week arguing that it could withhold SNAP benefits, a program that was significantly defunded in the president’s “Big Beautiful Bill” act earlier this year.
“Will the far left not be satisfied until federal workers and military families are getting their Thanksgiving dinner from a food bank? Because that’s where we’re headed,” Thune added.
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