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Does a Strong Holiday Shopping Season Mean a Better Year Ahead?

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Does a Strong Holiday Shopping Season Mean a Better Year Ahead?

The retail industry’s report card for the critical holiday shopping season is in.

American shoppers surprised analysts, economists and even retail executives by spending more than expected in November and December. But a closer read shows that not all retailers are benefiting.

Retail sales during the holiday season increased 4 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the Commerce Department. Purchases of cars, clothes and electronics helped bolster sales.

Over the last week or so, some retailers have signaled how business went during the holidays — with more reports to come in February. Target’s November and December total sales rose nearly 3 percent from the prior year, pushed higher as people put more clothes and toys in their shopping carts. Abercrombie & Fitch said sales had exceeded expectations and predicted growth of 7 to 8 percent over the 2023 holiday shopping season.

Lululemon, the maker of $98 leggings and other athletic wear, said it anticipated sales growth of 11 to 12 percent in the fourth quarter. “I still see a consumer that’s healthy,” Calvin McDonald, chief executive of Lululemon, said in an interview.

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For some retailers, though, customers did not seem in a mood to splurge.

Signet Jewelers, which owns Kay Jewelers, Zales and Jared, said its comparable sales would decline as much as 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter because of weaker-than-expected sales in the days leading up to Christmas. When it came to “fashion gifting,” customers “gravitated to lower price points even more than anticipated,” Joan Hilson, Signet’s chief financial and operating officer, said in a statement, and the company did not have enough of what shoppers were seeking.

Macy’s, which warned analysts in December that its customers were holding back, said sales were roughly flat during the fourth quarter. The department store chain is in a monthslong process of closing 66 of its 479 stores, from Philadelphia to Sacramento, with more to come through 2026. But it said comparable sales had increased at the Macy’s locations that it sees as its future, as well as Bloomingdale’s and the beauty chain Bluemercury, which it also owns.

Macy’s is not the only chain that is contracting. Kohl’s, which has had 11 consecutive quarters of declining sales, said it would shutter 27 “underperforming” stores by April. The department store chain has more than a thousand stores.

Since 2022, as inflation curtailed consumer spending and shoppers limited their visits to favored stores, foot traffic and sales have slowed. The bounce that the holiday season usually offers retailers was not able to save all of them.

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In the last month, a number of struggling retailers — the fabric and crafts chain Joann, the Container Store and Party City — declared bankruptcy. Party City and Big Lots, which declared bankruptcy in September, are closing all of their stores.

“If there’s a company out there that was sort of praying for holiday to really save them, my guess is that it probably didn’t save them,” said Isaac Krakovsky, a retail sector leader at the consultancy EY, who is in frequent communication with retail executives. “It probably gave them enough time to limp along for a little further because of the promotional nature of holiday.”

The forecast for the U.S. economy also remains foggy. Some forecasters expect U.S. economic growth in 2025 to be around 2 percent, once adjusted for inflation, which would be a modest slowdown from roughly 2.5 percent growth in 2024. But the International Monetary Fund said on Friday that it expected U.S. economic growth to accelerate slightly this year.

Many analysts are reluctant to see the surprising strength of the holiday shopping season as an indication of how consumer spending might pan out in 2025, given the many uncertainties with the incoming Trump administration and how fiscal policies may affect buying decisions.

“There’s a question mark on what policies are announced in January that could make the consumer think twice before their spending,” said Mickey Chadha, a vice president at Moody’s Ratings. “It could be tariffs, it could be immigration, it could be taxes. There are a lot of different policy changes that could impact the mind-set of the consumer.”

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Mr. Krakovsky, the EY consultant, echoed that sentiment.

“We’re not seeing this as an indication of gangbuster growth coming in the next year,” he said. “It’s cautious growth expected in 2025.”

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Auto Tariffs Take Effect, Putting Pressure on New Car Prices

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Auto Tariffs Take Effect, Putting Pressure on New Car Prices

Tariffs on imported vehicles took effect Thursday, a policy that President Trump said would spur investments and jobs in the United States but that analysts say will raise new car prices by thousands of dollars.

The 25 percent duty applies to all cars assembled outside the United States. Starting May 3, the tariff will also apply to imported auto parts, which will add to the cost of cars assembled domestically as well as auto repairs.

There will be a partial exemption for cars made in Mexico or Canada that meet the terms of free trade agreements with those countries. Carmakers will not have to pay duties on parts like engines, transmissions or batteries that were made in the United States and later installed in cars in Mexican or Canadian factories.

That provision will reduce the impact on vehicles like the Chevrolet Equinox electric vehicle, which is assembled in Mexico but includes a battery pack and other components made in the United States. General Motors will pay a tariff only on the portion of the car made abroad.

At the same time, the duty on parts will raise the cost of cars made in Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio or other states. That is because most cars rolling out of U.S. factories contain components made abroad, often amounting to more than half the cost of the vehicle.

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About 90 percent of the value of some Mercedes-Benz cars made in Alabama, for example, is in engines and transmissions that are imported from Europe, according to data compiled by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The impact of the tariffs on individual vehicles will vary widely. Cars like the Tesla Model Y, made in Texas and California, or Honda Passport, made in Alabama, have high percentages of U.S.-made parts and will pay lower tariffs.

Tariffs will be highest on cars manufactured abroad, like the Toyota Prius made in Japan or Porsche sports cars made in Germany.

Even people who don’t buy new cars will be hit by the tariffs because they will pay more for parts like tires, brake pads and oil filters.

Michael Holmes, co-chief executive of Virginia Tire and Auto, a chain of auto repair and maintenance shops, said he and his suppliers would initially try to absorb most of the increased cost.

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“That’s not sustainable,” Mr. Holmes said. “It’s magical thinking to think businesses won’t pass this on.”

The auto tariffs could also push up prices for used cars over time, analysts said, by increasing demand for those vehicles as new ones become unaffordable for many buyers. Insurance premiums may also rise because repairs will cost more.

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Car buyers in Southern California scramble to beat 25% auto tariffs

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Car buyers in Southern California scramble to beat 25% auto tariffs

After getting into a car accident last month, Debbie Boyd held out hope that her Chevy Volt could be repaired.

But the car was declared a total loss on Monday, three days before President Trump’s 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks is set to go into effect.

“It’s like the worst timing imaginable to be buying a car, and the uncertainty is killing me about what’s going to happen and how it’s going to affect prices,” said Boyd, 74, a retired attorney from Mar Vista. “I anticipated driving my car for quite some time, sailing through the tariffs, but now I’m faced smack up against them.”

She rushed to Culver City Toyota on Tuesday.

“I’m going to buy what’s on the lot, the current inventory, just to avoid it,” Boyd said. “Today, tomorrow, whatever they have available is what I will pick from. Obviously I need a car. I just wish it weren’t now.”

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Boyd’s anxiety was widely shared among many car buyers in Southern California who were scrambling to make their vehicle purchases before the tariffs kicked in.

The global trade war escalated further Wednesday afternoon, when Trump said during a Rose Garden event that he would impose 10% additional tariffs on all of the nation’s trading partners; some countries will be hit with even higher rates.

Calling it “Liberation Day,” Trump said the day would “forever be remembered as the day that American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again.”

Tariff-related price hike estimates vary depending on the vehicle, but most industry experts predict new cars will cost several thousand more.

Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox Automotive, expects new vehicle prices to go up by 15% to 20%. On Wednesday, Anderson Economic Group forecast car prices to increase $2,500 to $20,000. Vehicles expected to be hit hardest, the group said, include luxury sedans and SUVs manufactured by Audi, BMW, Jaguar-Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Genesis and Lexus.

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With sticker prices expected to surge, many consumers across Southern California are trying to get deals done ahead of the Thursday deadline.

“It is a natural consumer behavior when people see an impending price change to race in and respond accordingly,” said Dominick Miserandino, a retail and consumer analyst and chief executive of Retail Tech Media Nexus.

There is an element of panic contributing to the increase in demand, he said.

“You’re seeing it on a micro scale whenever someone posts online that they found a cheaper place to get eggs,” Miserandino said.

At Culver City Honda, more than a dozen prospective car buyers were milling about the dealership lot or waiting in the lobby for an available sales representative mid-afternoon Tuesday.

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“People are just rushing in here like crazy,” sales consultant Carlos Rodriguez said, a trend that began the day after Trump announced the autos tariff on March 26. “We’re used to selling let’s say 10 cars a day; 1743650055 we’re getting into 20s. I know a lot of dealerships are hitting higher numbers.”

Outside, a car shopper named Rochelle was checking out a white CR-V.

“I should have done this a long time ago,” she said. “I’m all for America first, but a lot of us don’t like American cars.”

Roughly half of the 16 million cars, SUVs and light trucks that Americans bought last year were imported, according to the White House. Vehicles in the United States are imported from Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Germany and other countries.

The Trump administration says it is imposing tariffs to strengthen national security and spur the growth of American jobs. Heavily taxing imported cars, the thinking goes, would put pressure on automakers to build manufacturing plants in the U.S.

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“America cannot just be an assembler of foreign-made parts — we must become a manufacturing powerhouse that dominates every step of the supply chain of industries that are critical for our national security and economic interests,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.

Tesla cars outside the automaker’s factory in Fremont.

(Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)

But building more domestic plants takes years, and some companies are wary of shifting their supply chains to the United States because of regulatory uncertainty, economists said.

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The 25% tariff will be applied to imported passenger vehicles (sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans and cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts and electrical components), with the possibility of expanding the duty to include additional parts if necessary. The tariff on auto parts is set to take effect by May 3.

“President Trump is taking action to protect America’s automobile industry, which is vital to national security and has been undermined by excessive imports threatening America’s domestic industrial base and supply chains,” the White House said.

Car dealerships across Southern California — home to car enthusiasts and one of the nation’s largest auto markets — are unsure about what comes next. Some are preparing for spikes and drops in business as the global trade war plays out.

Rodriguez said Culver City Honda will have to increase prices, but he was hopeful that sales would remain strong as they did during the pandemic despite major supply-chain disruptions that led to skyrocketing car prices.

It’s not just the automotive industry that is contending with tariff tumult. Businesses of all kinds — farmers, home builders, tech companies, winemakers, restaurants and apparel retailers — are reeling from weeks of on-again, off-again confusion as Trump has announced a slew of levies, many of them aimed at the country’s top three trading partners. Some have been imposed, while others have been postponed, modified or reversed.

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Bolstering the economy was one of Trump’s promises during the election, and tariffs are a core part of his strategy. He threatened to slap tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China on his first day back in office, explaining the decision as a way to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs.

In March, he wrote in a post on Truth Social that the U.S. “doesn’t have Free Trade. We have ‘Stupid Trade.’”

“The Entire World is RIPPING US OFF!!!” he said.

The prolonged back-and-forth has unsettled companies, both those that import goods from abroad and those that sell their products to foreign clients. California’s economy could be especially hard hit because of its heavy reliance on trade with China and Mexico, and because of its position as a global agricultural powerhouse.

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Amazon Said to Make a Bid to Buy TikTok in the U.S.

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Amazon Said to Make a Bid to Buy TikTok in the U.S.

Amazon has put in a last-minute bid to acquire all of TikTok, the popular video app, as it approaches an April deadline to be separated from its Chinese owner or face a ban in the United States, according to three people familiar with the bid.

Various parties who have been involved in the talks do not appear to be taking Amazon’s bid seriously, the people said. The bid came via an offer letter addressed to Vice President JD Vance and Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, according to a person briefed on the matter.

Amazon’s bid highlights the 11th-hour maneuvering in Washington over TikTok’s ownership. Policymakers in both parties have expressed deep national security concerns over the app’s Chinese ownership, and passed a law last year to force a sale of TikTok that was set to take effect in January.

President Trump, who has pledged repeatedly to save the app despite the national security concerns, delayed the enforcement of that law until Saturday, even after it was unanimously upheld by the Supreme Court.

Amazon declined to comment. TikTok didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Mr. Trump is slated to meet with top White House officials Wednesday to discuss TikTok’s fate. People familiar with the talks have outlined a potential deal that could involve bringing on a number of new U.S. investors, including Oracle, the technology giant, and Blackstone, the private equity firm, while sidestepping a formal sale. But it isn’t clear that such a structure would satisfy the conditions of the federal law.

Amazon has some existing ties to TikTok. The video app, which counts 170 million users in the United States, has become a major hub of retail shopping, with influencers recommending products to viewers. While the company has its own e-commerce operation known as TikTok Shop, many influencers encourage people to buy products on Amazon, which gives the influencers a cut of the transactions. It has also provided some technical infrastructure.

Amazon had previously tried to make a TikTok clone of sorts, called Inspire, inside its own app. Internally, it was a high-profile initiative, but was widely seen as unsuccessful at attracting shoppers. The company removed it from the app this year.

Amazon isn’t the first retailer to express interest in the app. In 2020, when TikTok was first pressured to sell to American owners, Microsoft and Walmart made a bid for the company.

But Amazon would be the most high-profile bidder for the company, which has also attracted interest from the billionaire Frank McCourt as well as Jesse Tinsley, the founder of the payroll firm Employer.com.

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TikTok has maintained that it is not for sale, partly, it says, because the Chinese government would block a deal.

Theodore Schleifer contributed reporting.

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