Devastating, often tragic as the Los Angeles-area fires have been, rebuilding could bring nightmares all its own, including murky insurance rules, material shortages and potentially higher costs for such items as lumber and bathtubs.

In terms of economic upheaval, it could be the construction industry equivalent of what the COVID-19 pandemic did to the economy just a few years ago.

The Trump administration’s plans to slap new tariffs on imports from many countries including Canada — by far the biggest foreign supplier of lumber for the U.S. market — could set off a new wave of inflation in home building.

Lumber is the single biggest component of home-building materials, accounting for about 15% of overall home construction costs. Southern California builders use wood for framing homes that’s sourced mostly from Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

And the last couple of years have left the lumber industry ill-prepared for a big surge in demand. More than a dozen sawmills have closed in Canada and Oregon, Washington and Northern California as logging operations have struggled with a shortage of skilled labor and higher costs for energy, freight and other inputs.

Additionally, prices of lumber and other building materials slumped after a renovation project surge and the pandemic eased; the lower prices left many suppliers in shaky financial condition.

The L.A.-area fires have destroyed or damaged more than 14,000 structures. Many of the properties affected are single-family homes, causing severe problems for displaced people in a region that was already struggling with a shortage of houses and apartments — and the labor to build them.

Based on a rough estimate of 10,000 homes that may need to be rebuilt, that would be about double the number of new homes built annually in L.A. County in recent years.

“Adding a bunch of demand that’s unexpected and very pressing is very challenging for this market,” said Scott Wild, senior vice president at John Burns Research & Consulting in Irvine.

Just how soon large-scale rebuilding begins will depend heavily on insurance settlements — though some homeowners aren’t covered or are underinsured — and how long it will take to clear debris, restore utilities and get permits. State and local leaders have ordered a streamlining of environmental reviews, permitting processes and other efforts to speed up the cleanup and other tasks to begin rebuilding.

In addition, coordinated efforts may be needed to help free up supplies and keep a lid on prices, some industry executives say.

“People whose homes burnt down — they’re rebuilding their lives,” said Scott Laurie, chief executive at Olson Co., which builds homes in L.A. and Orange counties. “I would hope there’s a mechanism to control the costs. It absolutely needs to be done.”

Because most of the people affected are individual homeowners, the demand for construction may not pile up all at once, but instead be staggered over multiple months.

That will help ease the pressures.

Still, rebuilding 10,000 homes in the region would require, at minimum, an additional 5,000-plus truckloads of lumber, according to estimates by Kyle Little, chief operating officer at Sherwood Lumber, a national supplier that has significant business in California. Little said he sees a “tremendous increase” in demand for the varieties of Douglas fir wood that are typically used for home building in California.

“I do believe the volatility could be reminiscent of what we experienced in COVID,” said Little, who’s chair of the North American Wholesale Lumber Assn.

More domestic lumber has been produced in recent years in the Carolinas and the South, but Southern yellow pine is not considered as structurally sound for framing as Douglas and varieties of spruce and other pine trees logged in Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

Little and other experts estimate that lumber prices could jump 25% to 40%. And that’s even before any additional tariff increases. In the last six months, average lumber prices have ranged from $475 to $625 per thousand board feet, about one-third of the peak in 2021.

Donald Trump has threatened to add 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. Duties on lumber from Canada had risen to 14.4% in the summer last year after the expiration of a U.S.-Canada agreement on softwood lumber.

And a review of anti-dumping could further double the duties this year. If Trump tacks on 25% tariffs on top of that, import levies on Canadian lumber overall could top 50%.

The U.S. consumes roughly 50 billion board feet of wood a year, most of that for new residential construction. About 30% of that is imported, the vast majority from Canada, said Jesse Wade, an economist at the National Assn. of Home Builders.

Europe’s share of lumber imports has increased in recent years, but Trump has talked about applying 10% to 20% tariffs on goods from all countries. The construction industry also imports cement from Canada and Mexico for concrete used in homebuilding.

Frank Addiego, president of All Bay Mill & Lumber Co. in Napa County, says it’s anybody’s guess just what Trump will do on tariffs: whether it’s a tactic to win trade and other concessions or a long-term move to boost domestic production. But if Trump goes through with tariff increases on lumber, he said, it will “absolutely add” to the supply crunch.

Addiego recalled that lumber prices jumped about 50% over a few quarters following the 2017 Tubbs fire, which destroyed more than 5,600 structures in Napa and Sonoma counties.

At the same time, he noted that it’s also possible that lumber prices won’t go up much at all if Trump’s tariffs cause a slowdown in the economy and end up depressing homebuilding.

“The tariffs are a serious illness,” Addiego said, adding that he expects some builders to try to offset potential price spikes by locking in purchase contracts earlier.

Steve Kalmbach, president and chief operating officer at Thomas James Homes, a single-lot homebuilder based in Aliso Viejo, said he’s starting to get calls from owners of fire-damaged homes, with some saying they want to rebuild ASAP and others saying they aren’t sure what to do.

“We’re just at an information gathering stage at this point,” said Kalmbach, whose firm has built more than 50 homes in Pacific Palisades over the last decade. He said it was too early to say what the rebuilding would mean for supply and prices, but said the fires certainly aren’t what the market needed.

“Housing is challenged right now, whatever the issue. Everyone is trying to source the materials and labor,” he said.

Five major banks are offering homeowners up to three months of mortgage payment relief in areas devastated by the Southern California wildfires, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Saturday.

In a statement, Newsom’s office said the banks will have a streamlined process that will not require submitting forms or documents and when the forbearance period ends, there will not be an immediate repayment or late fees. The 90-day pause on mortgage payments for homes that were destroyed or damaged by the fires will not be reported to credit agencies, Newsom’s office said.

“After so much trauma, we hope this deal will provide thousands of survivors a measure of relief,” Newsom said in a statement. “These financial protections will enable residents to concentrate on taking care of their immediate needs rather than worrying about paying their mortgage bills.”

The participating banks are Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo. Many banks already have policies allowing up to three additional months of payment forbearance. To participate, homeowners must contact their mortgage provider. The ZIP codes included in the mortgage relief program are: 90019, 90041, 90049, 90066, 90265, 90272, 90290, 90402, 91001,91104, 91106, 91107 and 93536, according to Newsom’s office.

Additional commitments to help those affected by the fires will be announced in the coming days, Newsom’s office said.

As of Saturday, the Palisades and Eaton fires have burned more than 11,000 structures and killed at least 27 people. Following a reprieve this weekend from dangerous winds, another round of fire weather could arrive next week, forecasters said.

Additional executive orders issued by Newsom postponed the tax filing deadline for individuals in Los Angeles County to Oct. 15. Another executive order allows homeowners to wait until April 2026 to file this year’s property taxes without penalty. Longer deferrals of up to four years are also available by applying to the Los Angeles County Treasurer and Tax Collector.

Newsom’s order to protect fire victims from predatory land speculators makes unsolicited and undervalued offers a misdemeanor offense for three months. Violations can be reported to the attorney general’s office at oag.ca.gov/report.

“As families mourn, the last thing they need is greedy speculators taking advantage of their pain,” Newsom said in a statement Tuesday. “I have heard first-hand from community members and victims who have received unsolicited and predatory offers from speculators offering cash far below market value — some while their homes were burning.”

Such offers spurred the advocacy group SGV Progressive Alliance to stage a protest Saturday afternoon to send a message to developers that Altadena is not for sale, said Melissa Michelson.

“The message is for the community to stand strong, not sell your property to the first buyer that comes your way,” Michelson said. “The concern is the displacement of the neighborhood and the neighbors who’ve been there for so long. We don’t want the neighborhoods to change.”