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DeepSeek Prompts a Reckoning Across Wall Street and Silicon Valley

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DeepSeek Prompts a Reckoning Across Wall Street and Silicon Valley

Good morning on this action-packed Monday. Mark this week on your “History of Artificial Intelligence Timeline”: The creation of DeepSeek, the Chinese A.I. sensation that we told you about last week, is shaking the technology industry to its core.

The super-efficient, open-source software is raising questions about the valuations of tech giants, including the chip maker Nvidia, with their stocks getting crushed today. Has the entire industry been wildly overspending? It’s also raising profound questions about how China may have undercut America’s most critical economic advantage on A.I. by making its technology free. We have more on all of this below.

Plus: Wall Street should pay attention to comments President Trump made late Friday that have flown under the radar.

Markets are on edge on Monday, as global tech investors face a $1 trillion wipeout. The cause: anxiety that the emergence of powerful — and cheap — Chinese artificial intelligence software could upend the economics of A.I.

Nasdaq futures have plummeted nearly 4 percent. And shares in Nvidia, the chipmaker whose processors help train and run A.I. software, are down 11 percent in premarket trading. Those in Constellation Energy, a utility betting heavily on powering A.I. data centers, are down nearly 13 percent.

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Meanwhile, tech executives and policymakers have been left to wonder how strong America’s lead in A.I. is.

DeepSeek is forcing a reckoning in Silicon Valley. The company’s models appear to rival those from OpenAI, Google and Meta, despite the U.S. government’s efforts to limit China’s access to leading-edge A.I. technology. And DeepSeek says it did all this with a fraction of the resources that American competitors use.

Over the weekend, DeepSeek shot to the top of Apple’s App Store charts, rivaling ChatGPT. And DeepSeek is drastically undercutting OpenAI on price.

That raises a number of questions:

  • Do leading A.I. companies like Google, Meta and the privately held OpenAI and Anthropic deserve their astronomical valuations?

  • Do companies need to spend hundreds of billions on vast data centers powered by hugely expensive chips from Nvidia and others? Consider that OpenAI and its partners have promised to spend at least $100 billion on their Stargate project, or that Microsoft said it will spend $80 billion, or Meta $65 billion.

  • Does America need the huge uptick in electricity generation that has fueled a run-up in utility stocks?

American tech companies are scrambling to respond. The Information reports that Meta has tasked several teams of engineers with closely examining DeepSeek to see how they can improve their company’s own Llama A.I. software.

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Already, American A.I. providers are rushing to dissuade customers from switching to cheaper DeepSeek offerings. (One potential stumbling block for some is that DeepSeek, as a Chinese company, won’t answer questions on sensitive topics such as those involving China’s leader, Xi Jinping, though developers say that it’s easy to modify the software.)

Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s C.E.O., has a more positive take: More efficient and accessible A.I. might lead to a “Jevon’s paradox” moment: “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of,” he wrote on X.

What will policymakers do? President Trump and other Western leaders have been anxious to unveil steps to bolster their homegrown A.I. industries, both by helping them grow and imposing constraints on Chinese rivals. But DeepSeek suggests there are limits to that approach.

Expect tough questions from analysts this week, especially as four of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech giants, including Meta and Microsoft, report earnings this week.

Hearings for Trump cabinet picks and the Fed loom large this week. Senators are expected on Monday to approve Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary. On Wednesday, they will hold confirmation hearings for Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the candidate for health secretary. Also on Wednesday, it’s decision day for the Fed: Many on Wall Street expect the central bank, wary of inflation, will keep interest rates steady.

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Bitcoin falls below $100,000 as the industry deals with a flood of memecoins. The sell-off coincides with the broad slump in tech stocks, and comes despite an executive order by Trump to bolster the sector. (Tokens tied to the president and the first lady, Melania Trump, have slumped sharply again, amid a wave of criticism.) Meanwhile, Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of Coinbase, who criticized regulations by the Biden administration, suggested that regulators should create a “block list” for new digital tokens as his company struggles to deal with the million new ones being created each week.

Trump says he’s making progress on a TikTok sale. The president said he was in talks with several potential buyers to take control of the video app as part of an arrangement with ByteDance, the platform’s Chinese owner, with a potential decision in the next 30 days.

President Trump’s jab at Brian Moynihan, Bank of America’s C.E.O., grabbed headlines at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, when he accused the executive of “debanking” his conservative supporters.

What many haven’t noticed that Trump has kept up his attack since then.

When the president visited Los Angeles on Friday for a round table on the California wildfires, he doubled down on his criticism of Bank of America. “They’re not nice. Sounds very nice, ‘The Bank of America.’ They are not nice,” he told someone in attendance. But he didn’t stop there, adding, “We’re doing numbers on banks.”

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Trump’s issues have expanded beyond debanking. The conversation in Los Angeles was about the profit margin that banks often capture by charging a significantly higher interest rate on loans to consumers than the banks pay to borrow from the Fed.

Might he try to force banks to lower interest rates? Or could he make good on a campaign promise of capping credit card interest rates? (It’s not clear if he has the authority to do so via executive order.)

Trump’s relationship with banks is complicated. Few on Wall Street and finance are in Trump’s inner circle, especially compared with tech moguls (some of whom are trying to disrupt banking). Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, comes from the rough-and-tumble brokerage business than the polished worlds of investment banking and commercial lending.

By contrast, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase has a more nuanced relationship with the president. Though he privately supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, the JPMorgan chief has said that Trump wasn’t wrong on issues including taxes and immigration at last year’s Davos, and this year said he’d be on board with tariffs if they’re good for national security.

Also worth noting: One of Bank of America’s largest shareholders is Warren Buffett, who has clashed with Trump in the past. That said, Buffett didn’t weigh in on the election and has been selling down his Bank of America stake since before November.

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Trump is taking shots at banks just as they were expecting a friendlier administration., The industry, whose members had been prevented from merging for years, was expecting a wave of consolidation under Trump.

But there have already been signs that banking won’t get what it wants. Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said in his confirmation hearing this month that the five largest banks had too much market share.


President Trump’s standoff with Colombia over immigration lasted just a few hours and played out mostly on social media.

But the fallout will likely reverberate among global leaders.

The latest: President Gustavo Petro of Colombia backed down from his refusal to accept American military planes carrying deportees into the South American country. His decision came after Trump threatened sanctions and tariffs — starting at 25 percent, and then climbing — on the country’s exports, including crude oil, coffee and cut flowers.

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Petro’s U-turn gives the White House a victory on multiple fronts. Trump can show he’s living up to his campaign promise to crack down on illegal immigration.

And he can put other foreign capitals on notice that he will use tariffs to extract conditions that go beyond trade. “Today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again,” the White House declared in a statement.

Allies won’t be spared. Colombia has long had close diplomatic ties to the United States — as do other targets of potential tariffs, Canada and Mexico. Some Trump aides want to proceed with tariffs on the latter on Feb. 1, talks or no talks, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Last week, the S&P 500 rallied in part on hopes that Trump’s recent tariff comments, especially about China, signaled a softer policy approach. Was that all a mirage?

And then there’s Greenland. Trump has coveted the autonomous Danish island for its strategic location in Arctic shipping and defense and for its mineral wealth, and has suggested he’d be willing to use military force or economic coercion to annex it.

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On Air Force One this weekend, Trump told reporters that he could wrest control of Greenland from Denmark. “I think we’re going to have it. I think the people want to be with us,” he said, referring to Greenlanders.

Trump’s comments add to heightened tensions between Washington and NATO allies. “The Danes are saying, ‘Keep it down,’ but they’re scared,” Zaki Laïdi, an adviser to the former E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell Fontelles, told The Times.


The latest guessing game on the Washington-to-New York Acela is where former Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband, Douglas Emhoff, might go next. We know the answer to half of that question.

Emhoff will become a partner at the corporate law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher, splitting his time between Los Angeles and Manhattan. He starts on Monday, advising companies on crises including litigation and corporate investigations, DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch is first to report.

Emhoff spent decades as a corporate lawyer before moving to Washington. He co-founded a boutique law firm in 2000, which he sold to a rival, Venable, in 2006. He left Venable in 2017 for DLA Piper, and stepped away full-time in 2020, partly to avoid conflicts of interest entanglements once his wife became vice president.

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His clients have included Spotify and Lionsgate. He’s also represented Willie Gault, the former Olympic sprinter and N.F.L. star, whom he represented in an S.E.C. fraud case.

Willkie will tap Emhoff’s experience from his legal career and the White House. The second gentleman has amassed a network of key figures in entertainment, private equity and the corporate world.

Emhoff was a visible presence during the presidential campaign, helping his wife raise more than $1 billion. He also represented the U.S. in a diplomatic capacity at events like the 2024 Olympics in Paris, and led the Biden administration’s efforts to combat antisemitism.

“That got him in touch with very important leaders across the globe,” Thomas Cerabino, a co-chairman at Willkie, told DealBook.

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Business

Which Countries Depend the Most on Persian Gulf Oil and Gas

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Which Countries Depend the Most on Persian Gulf Oil and Gas

The war in the Middle East has halted most of the oil and gas trade from the region, forcing countries thousands of miles to contend with their energy supplies suddenly vanishing.

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly a fifth of the world’s energy needs. As Iran effectively blocks shipments, international prices for oil and gas have shot up. That in turn has meant gasoline, jet fuel and other products have become costlier — hurting drivers, business owners and others from Los Angeles to Lahore, Pakistan. As the world becomes gripped by the energy crisis, some nations are feeling the loss more acutely.

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Asian countries are the biggest buyers of Persian Gulf energy

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  • Pakistan

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    81%

    Total energy
    imports in 2024

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $17 bil.

  • Japan

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    57%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $139 bil.

  • Thailand

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    56%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $43 bil.

  • South Korea

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    55%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $144 bil.

  • India

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    50%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $180 bil.

  • Maldives

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    42%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $774.1 mil.

  • Taiwan

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    40%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $47 bil.

  • China

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    35%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $413 bil.

  • Sri Lanka

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    33%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

  • Malaysia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    29%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $44 bil.

  • Singapore

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    27%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $86 bil.

  • Philippines

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    26%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $16 bil.

  • Israel

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    19%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $3 bil.

  • Brunei

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    16%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Myanmar

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    16%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Indonesia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    15%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $35 bil.

  • Armenia

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    10%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $535.9 mil.

  • Turkey

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    7%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $26 bil.

  • Hong Kong

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    5%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $12 bil.

  • Uzbekistan

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Kazakhstan

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $628 mil.

  • Yemen

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $23.5 mil.

  • Azerbaijan

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $2 bil.

  • Kyrgyzstan

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Jordan

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $641 mil.

  • Cambodia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $3 bil.

  • Syria

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $131.2 mil.

  • Bangladesh

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $7 bil.

Note: Only countries with energy imports from Gulf countries are shown.

In 2024, nearly 21 million barrels of oil a day crossed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world. Four-fifths of that supply went to Asia.

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China has long been the biggest purchaser of oil and gas from Persian Gulf nations. And with more than a third of its total supply coming from the region, the disruption is significant for Beijing. But other countries are almost entirely reliant on the region for their energy needs.

Pakistan has considered imposing a four-day workweek, and remote school and work, in order to preserve energy stockpiles. A state-led fund in Thailand, to subsidize the cost of fuel when prices surge, plunged into a deficit this month.

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In India, where the economy depends on the Middle East for roughly 40 percent of the country’s oil imports and 80 percent of its gas, a shortage of cooking gas is squeezing households. And across Asia, fliers are being stranded because airlines running low on jet fuel have canceled thousands of flights.

Europe has been more insulated, sort of

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  • Greece

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    36%

    Total energy
    imports in 2024

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $19 bil.

  • Lithuania

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    32%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $7 bil.

  • Poland

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    30%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $28 bil.

  • Serbia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    29%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $2 bil.

  • Bulgaria

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    23%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Slovenia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    23%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

  • Italy

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    22%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $50 bil.

  • Albania

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    22%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $931.9 mil.

  • France

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    18%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $73 bil.

  • Ireland

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    14%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $6 bil.

  • Iceland

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    13%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • U.K.

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    11%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $62 bil.

  • Netherlands

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    10%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $105 bil.

  • Spain

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    9%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $53 bil.

  • Romania

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    8%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $8 bil.

  • Denmark

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    8%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $6 bil.

  • Ukraine

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    7%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $8 bil.

  • Austria

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    7%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $10 bil.

  • Germany

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    7%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $66 bil.

  • Norway

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    5%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Portugal

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    5%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $10 bil.

  • Moldova

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    4%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Cyprus

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    4%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $3 bil.

  • Belgium

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    4%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $47 bil.

  • Latvia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    3%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Sweden

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    3%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $18 bil.

  • Finland

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    3%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $10 bil.

  • Estonia

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    2%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • North Macedonia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    2%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $902.7 mil.

  • Croatia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    1%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $6 bil.

  • Switzerland

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $8 bil.

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Slovakia

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

Note: Only countries with energy imports from Gulf countries are shown.

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Europe has traditionally been less reliant on the Gulf than Asia has been. It used to get most of its natural gas from Russia, but in recent years it has relied more on the United States and Norway. But the continent has had to endure one energy crisis after another in recent years, including from Russia’s war with Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed.

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of gas, and the sales of its energy products have been significantly restricted while Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine.

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This current crisis comes as European countries, confronting lackluster economic output, try to rebuild their industrial bases and fend off competition from cheaper Chinese exports.

Confronted with soaring prices since its attack with Israel on Iran, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, hoping to ease the global supply and markets in the process. The European Union has not made similar moves.

Parts of Africa will be hit hard

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  • Seychelles

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    98%

    Total energy
    imports in 2024

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $308.6 mil.

  • Mauritania

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    76%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $973.5 mil.

  • Uganda

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    61%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Mauritius

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    56%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Kenya

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    55%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $5 bil.

  • Egypt

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    45%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $16 bil.

  • Zambia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    45%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Namibia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    38%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Malawi

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    38%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $476.1 mil.

  • South Africa

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    33%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    Advertisement

    $18 bil.

  • Tanzania

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    30%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Morocco

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    29%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $8 bil.

  • Mozambique

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    24%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Madagascar

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    19%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $841.3 mil.

  • Zimbabwe

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    16%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $2 bil.

  • Senegal

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    13%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

  • Nigeria

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    12%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $13 bil.

  • Benin

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    6%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $398.4 mil.

  • Angola

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    4%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Burkina Faso

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    4%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    Advertisement

    $2 bil.

  • Tunisia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    2%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $3 bil.

  • Cote d’Ivoire

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    2%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

  • Central African Republic

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    1%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $196.7 mil.

  • Gambia

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $206.6 mil.

  • Niger

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $113.6 mil.

  • Lesotho

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $214.4 mil.

  • Cameroon

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $424.4 mil.

  • Libya

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

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Note: Only countries with energy imports from Gulf countries are shown.

African nations, like many other countries in the global south, could feel the disruption unevenly. Seychelles, the island nation off the east coast of Africa, imported almost all of its energy from Gulf states in 2024. Mauritius has had a similar reliance, while Nigeria, an oil-rich state and a member of the OPEC Plus oil cartel, has traditionally imported relatively few fossil fuels from the Middle East.

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But as the war continues, the impact is being felt beyond the imports of oil and gas. The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer, partly because the region’s abundance of energy has spurred the development of factories that make the raw materials for many types of agricultural chemicals.

A sustained rise in the cost of fertilizer could force governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops or otherwise watch food prices climb. That could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.

The Americas and elsewhere are feeling broader economic shocks

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  • Argentina

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    16%

    Total energy
    imports in 2024

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $3 bil.

  • Brazil

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    13%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $28 bil.

  • United States

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    10%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $233 bil.

  • Paraguay

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    9%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Canada

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    5%

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $31 bil.

  • Uruguay

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    4%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Australia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    2%

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $37 bil.

  • Dominican Republic

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Guatemala

    Advertisement

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $4 bil.

  • Chile

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $13 bil.

  • Fiji

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $888.1 mil.

  • Peru

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $9 bil.

  • Honduras

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Ecuador

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $5 bil.

  • Colombia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $6 bil.

  • El Salvador

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Costa Rica

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • New Zealand

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $6 bil.

  • Mexico

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    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $34 bil.

  • Belize

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

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    $235.5 mil.

  • Bolivia

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $2 bil.

  • Nicaragua

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

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    Total energy imports in 2024

    $1 bil.

  • Barbados

    Share of energy imports from Gulf Countries

    Total energy imports in 2024

    $552.3 mil.

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Note: Only countries with energy imports from Gulf countries are shown.

The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. That means the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is much less severe.

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But the United States and other countries in the region that do not import great quantities from the Gulf are still feeling economic strain. The jump in oil prices – to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks – has already weighed on other major economic factors.

The cost of gasoline has jumped by about a dollar a gallon nationally since the war began. American airlines have begun to cut flights because of fuel costs. Concerns about inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level in three months, just weeks after they fell below 6 percent for the first time since 2022.

If the war drags on, or if oil and gas prices continue to rise, the damage will most likely grow, economists say. It is perhaps one reason why the White House has forcefully insisted that it does not need Middle Eastern oil — and is increasingly trying to use military force to stop Iran’s blockade of it.

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Methodology

To calculate total energy imports for each country, The New York Times used 2024 international trade data from the Observatory for Economic Complexity and tallied the value of imports for a subset of energy-related goods. A share of imports from Gulf countries was then calculated from that subset.

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The Gulf countries included are: Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The categories used were: crude petroleum oils (HS 270900), bituminous petroleum distillates (HS 271000), liquefied natural gas (HS 271111), liquefied propane (HS 271112), liquefied butanes (HS 271113) and liquefied petroleum gases (HS 271119).

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As malls and department stores fade, California’s Ross and other discounters are booming

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As malls and department stores fade, California’s Ross and other discounters are booming

As big malls and department stores close, bargain chains like Ross Dress for Less are rolling out new stores.

Economic anxiety and inflation are leading shoppers to spend less and search for savings. In this bombed-out retail landscape, some chains are thriving and opening new outlets.

At a new Ross in Alhambra, Liz Lopez was shopping for a designer purse. She is a big fan of the Dublin-based chain and thrilled to now have one just 10 blocks from her home.

People check out after shopping at a newly opened Ross store.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

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“I come on Tuesdays for the senior discounts,” Lopez said, showing off her new black Dolce & Gabbana purse. “I always find good deals.”

The new store on East Valley Boulevard opened this month. One of its sister shops — dd’s Discounts, which is owned by the same parent company — opened in North Hollywood.

This year, the parent company, Ross Stores Inc., plans to open 110 new outlets across the country, after 90 last year.

Ross Chief Executive Jim Conroy said Ross is capturing market share by attracting customers away from other retail chains.

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“The share shift is more from mainstream retail, department stores and other places like that,” he told analysts after announcing strong growth early this month.

Other discount outlets, including T.J. Maxx, Dollar General, Nordstrom Rack and Five Below, are also expanding to capitalize on tough times.

Retail data show shoppers are visiting a broader spectrum of destinations to find lower prices, said Placer.ai, which tracks people’s movements based on cellphone usage.

“Consumers have become increasingly selective and price-sensitive, actively pivoting away from traditional mid-market chains in favor of discount retailers and value-oriented brands,” Placer.ai said in a report this month. “Because affordability remains a core focus, average households are spreading their visits across a wider number of non-discretionary stores to hunt for deals.”

Discount retailers have been popular for decades, but a combination of factors is now driving accelerated growth for some, experts said.

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Dollar stores and the first off-price retailers rose to popularity in the 1990s, but really took off around 2010 following the recession, according to Dylan Carden, a specialty retail analyst at William Blair.

Since then, the stigma surrounding bargain stores has lessened for both customers and brands.

“They’re phenomenal at what they do,” Carden said of the major off-price retailers, including Ross and TJX, which owns T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and Home Goods.

In the last year or so, well-established retailers that were already grappling with intense competition from online retailers have been hit as their customers cut back on discretionary spending amid inflation, tariffs and global conflict.

A sign at Ross reads "20-60% off other retailers' prices."

Savings signs on the walls at a newly opened Ross store in Alhambra.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

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For stores such as Ross, this dip in demand at department stores means a larger supply of discounted products, as they often buy unsold merchandise from struggling high-end outlets and manufacturers.

“These companies offer a tremendous value to shoppers, but they perhaps offer an even greater value to the brands,” said Simeon Siegel, a senior managing director at Guggenheim Partners. “They’ve solidified their role in the retail ecosystem.”

Five Below, the Pennsylvania-based discount outlet aimed at teens and tweens, opened 150 new stores in 2025 and has plans to open more this year. Its same-store sales rose 15% in the fourth quarter last year.

Ross sells everything from neckties to shower curtains. Its fourth-quarter profits last year rose 10% from the year prior. Ross reported record sales for 2025 of $22.8 billion, up 8% from the year prior. Its net income was $2.1 billion, similar to 2024, while comparable store sales grew 5%.

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Investors have been happy with its outperformance.

Ross shares surged around 70% over the past year. TJX shares rose around 30%.

A shopper leaves a Ross store with a paper bag.

A man exits after shopping at a newly opened Ross store.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

TJX has also seen year-over-year increases in sales and net income, according to its most recent earnings release. It plans to open 146 new stores this year.

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“The revenues, the stores, the businesses are doing excellent,” Siegel said. “They are absolutely in their stride.”

In contrast, some department stores are struggling.

Macy’s closed two California locations earlier this year as part of its plan to reduce its footprint by 30% by 2027. Twelve more closures are planned in the coming months across the U.S.

Saks Global, which owns Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in January, citing overwhelming debt.

“The department store pressure and the off-price success are not coincidental,” Siegel said. “They are clearly linked. Off-price has effectively become the new department store.”

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In addition to opening new stores, Ross is working to streamline the shopping process by better organizing its stores and adding self-checkout at more branches.

The new Ross in Alhambra has several self-checkout lanes and well-stocked aisles organized into categories such as apparel, technology and cosmetics.

Lopez, a regular at Ross Dress for Less, put a pack of clothing hangers in her cart along with her new purse before checking out.

“I always seem to find what I need,” she said.

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Amazon MGM Studios’ ‘Project Hail Mary’ rockets to the top of the box office

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Amazon MGM Studios’ ‘Project Hail Mary’ rockets to the top of the box office

The Ryan Gosling-led “Project Hail Mary” rocketed to the top of the box office this weekend, marking a big win for Amazon MGM Studios.

The film — which stars Gosling as a science teacher who embarks on a space mission to save humanity — hauled in $80.5 million in the U.S. and Canada, making it the biggest domestic debut of the year so far. Globally, “Project Hail Mary” brought in $140.9 million.

The movie is an adaptation of a novel by Andy Weir, author of “The Martian” — another successful book-to-screen adventure. The big opening weekend for “Project Hail Mary” is a boost for Amazon MGM Studios, which had heavily promoted the film as an example of the big blockbusters it could produce.

“We believe deeply in the Hail Mary, and it’s clear audiences do as well,” Kevin Wilson, head of domestic theatrical distribution for Amazon MGM Studios, said in a statement. “What we’re seeing in theaters —the energy, the exit scores, the word of mouth — is everything we believed this film would deliver.”

Walt Disney Co. and Pixar’s “Hoppers” came in second at the box office this weekend with a domestic total of $18 million. The original animated film has now garnered $120.4 million in the U.S. and Canada since it debuted in theaters earlier this month.

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Indian action film “Dhurandhar The Revenge” came in third with $10 million, followed by Disney-owned Searchlight Pictures’ horror film “Ready or Not 2: Here I Come” and Universal Pictures’ romance “Reminders of Him” rounding out the top five.

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