Business
California in a jam after borrowing billions to pay unemployment benefits
California’s massive budget deficit, coupled with the state’s relatively high level of joblessness, has become a major barrier to reducing the billions of dollars of debt it has incurred to pay unemployment benefits.
The surge in unemployment brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic pushed the state’s unemployment insurance trust into insolvency. And over the last year California’s joblessness has been on the upswing again, reaching 5.3% in February, the highest among all states. The March job numbers come out Friday.
To keep the safety-net program operating at a time when the taxes paid by employers and earmarked for jobless benefits are insufficient, Sacramento has been borrowing billions of dollars from the federal government. The debt now stands at about $21 billion and growing, an increasing burden for state deficit fighters and for the businesses that pay into the jobless insurance program.
Payroll taxes paid by employers are rising not only to cover payouts to unemployed workers but also a state surcharge and a gradually increasing federal surtax to help pay off the principal on the debt. But the tax increases are not enough to deal with the huge loan the state has incurred, or at least not in any timely manner.
California already has paid more than $650 million in interest on the loan — and about $550 million more is due Sept. 30.
“Businesses are going to continue to see the slow boil eating into their margins,” said Robert Moutrie, senior policy advocate for the California Chamber of Commerce.
Higher taxes will hit small and midsize companies in sectors such as restaurants and tourism especially hard, he said.
“It just adds to the burden and the costs of operating here and makes companies look at operating elsewhere,” Moutrie said.
Although the pandemic is largely to blame for California’s huge unemployment insurance debt — and there’s been a lot of attention on dollars lost to fraud — analysts and workers’ rights groups point to another problem: Even during more-normal economic times, the state often doesn’t collect enough unemployment insurance taxes to cover jobless claims.
“The root problem really is that for decades policymakers haven’t been requiring businesses to pay enough into the [unemployment insurance] fund to support the benefits workers really need,” said Amy Traub, senior researcher and policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.
“So there’s a structural deficit that underlies this crisis moment with this huge debt to the federal government.”
Data also show that jobless workers in California stay on unemployment significantly longer than the national average, which adds to the total payout amount. And California workers claim unemployment benefits in disproportionately high numbers.
The state accounts for about 20% of the nation’s jobless claims, far in excess of its 11% share of the labor force population. That partly reflects the state’s higher unemployment and accompanying increases in layoffs and jobless claims in the tech industry and other sectors, but also its comparatively easier eligibility rules and low re-employment rate.
Last year California’s jobless workers received on average $385 a week, replacing only about 28% of the average wage. Both figures are lower than the national averages, according to Department of Labor statistics. (The wage replacement rate is about 50% for minimum-wage workers in California.)
From surplus to deficit
But California also stands out as an outlier in the way it has managed, or mismanaged, the program.
When COVID struck in March 2020, U.S. unemployment jumped to 14.8% a month later and brought unprecedented jobless claims, forcing California and many other states to borrow from the federal government to keep paying benefits. Almost all the other states have since repaid those loans, some with pandemic relief money they also got from Washington.
Today only New York and California, plus the Virgin Islands, still owe money for unemployment insurance loans.
Analysts said California could have used some of the $43.5 billion the state received from the American Rescue Plan Act to pay down the debt. Instead, state officials spent the relief money for other purposes, including additional stimulus checks to residents.
“California had options and it chose the spending option instead of the responsible option,” said Matt Weidinger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who has written widely on the unemployment insurance program. He said higher employer payroll taxes will ultimately spill over to employees in the form of less wages.
“California distributed relief during a time when people and businesses were struggling, everything from covering rent and utility bills to small business grants — helping those hardest hit by the pandemic while stimulating the economy,” said Alex Stack, a spokesman for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office. “That’s on top of paying down $250 million of unemployment fund debts.”
State legislative analysts were careful not to criticize policy choices made during the extraordinarily uncertain times.
Some suggested, however, that officials may have felt the state had plenty of financial cushion coming out of the pandemic in 2021-22. Then, Sacramento was flush with cash, thanks to huge tax windfalls. And the interest rate on the federal unemployment insurance loan two years ago was at a historical low of 1.6%.
But the interest rate on the loan has since risen to 2.6% — and may yet rise further. What’s more, once huge surpluses are now a projected record budget deficit of more than $70 billion in 2024-25, according to a February update by California’s Legislative Analyst Office.
An economic downturn in the state, marked by a falloff in technology investment and rising overall unemployment, has resulted in unprecedented shortfalls in tax revenues.
Under such budget constraints, California officials had little choice but to pull back on plans to spend $1 billion to reduce the principal on the unemployment insurance loan.
What’s the solution?
California’s Employment Development Department, which oversees the state’s unemployment insurance program, has said that it would rely on increased federal taxes on employers to pay down the debt.
Currently California employers pay a federal unemployment insurance tax of 1.2% on the first $7,000 of wages per employee, but that will rise incrementally every year so long as California is in debt, to more than 3.5% after 10 years. And analysts estimate that it may take at least that long to pay off the debt.
Businesses also pay a state unemployment insurance tax, also on the first $7,000 of wages, based on their layoff history, plus a surcharge when there’s a shortfall in the jobless benefits fund.
Combining both state and federal portions, a new California employer, for example, would be looking at paying about $500 in unemployment insurance taxes per employee this year — almost double than during normal times.
“California’s apparent plan to rely on [federal tax] revenue to pay off the loan avoids addressing solvency in the state unemployment insurance law and places the burden of increased unemployment benefits during the pandemic on employers,” said Doug Holmes, former director of Ohio’s unemployment insurance program and currently president of the consulting firm UWC.
In California, business groups say it’s unfair for employers to shoulder the increasing burden when they weren’t responsible for the pandemic or the temporary lockdowns that were imposed on them, resulting in layoffs and higher unemployment claims. They argue that it will only add to the state’s already higher business costs that have pushed some California companies to relocate to Texas, Nevada and other states.
Traub, of the National Employment Law Project, said employers have to pay more to make the math work and ensure the unemployment trust system is sustainable over the long haul.
Sacramento collects unemployment insurance taxes on the first $7,000 of wages per employee per year. Traub noted that most other states have a significantly higher taxable wage limit — New York at $12,500; New Mexico at $31,700; and Washington state, the highest, at $68,500.
“Raising the taxable wage base has got to be part of the solution,” Traub said.
California legislators are now considering an increase, which many agree is needed. “That’s very reasonable,” said Michael Bernick, an employment attorney at Duane Morris in San Francisco.
Bernick was the EDD director in the early 2000s when, under Gov. Gray Davis, the state raised the maximum weekly unemployment benefits to $450 a week — but without increasing the taxes to cover the larger payments.
Writing in a report with Holmes, Bernick recommended a number of steps the EDD could take to shore up the state’s unemployment benefits program, including tightening eligibility standards and modernizing the agency’s computer and communications systems. But by far the main policy change that’s needed is to help jobless workers move into new jobs more rapidly.
In 2022, California workers stayed on unemployment aid for an average of 18.1 weeks, compared with 14.5 weeks nationally, according to a study by the Department of Labor’s former lead actuary, Robert Pavosevich.
In California that year, 47% of recipients took the full maximum 26 weeks of jobless benefits. Nationally, only 27% exhausted all benefit weeks available.
“Those are striking numbers and highlight just how much the system needs to be reshaped,” Bernick said. “How do we get people back to work quickly? It’s both good for businesses and the workers, but also for the unemployment fund.”
Business
Want an AI-proof job? New research says you may be safer at companies embracing the technology
While AI is often cited as one of the reasons for mass layoffs, particularly in the tech sector, for fast-growing companies it also seems to be creating new jobs in many companies, according to a study published Tuesday from financial services company Ramp and employment database Revelio Labs.
“Our early result is that it looks like firms are starting to look for more entry-level hires, likely people who are more AI native,” said Ara Kharazian, the lead economist at Ramp, a financial services company that found a rise in early-career hiring by companies in the period they started spending heavily on AI.
The study tracked AI spending and the workforce records of nearly 22,000 U.S. companies between January 2021 and February 2026.
It found that firms that spent more on AI ended up increasing their workforce headcount by an average of 10% over the two years after rolling out the technology. Companies that made the largest AI investment expanded entry-level job hiring by 12%.
“If you are a job seeker, or you are graduating from college, and you’re choosing between two different firms that are otherwise similar, I would choose the one that’s using AI,” Kharazian said. “Our paper shows that that firm is going to grow faster.”
The early and intense AI adopters spent more than $100 per month per employee on AI and had their employees using advanced AI, such as coding subscriptions, as opposed to simple ChatGPT subscriptions.
The low-intensity, casual AI adopters didn’t see any hiring gains and reduced headcount.
The Ramp study showed a positive effect on employment from AI because it focused on firms adopting AI, many of them fast-growing, venture-backed companies hiring AI-native junior employees.
It reached a different conclusion than a November 2025 Stanford University study, which examined payroll data across the entire labor market and found that employment among young software developers had declined by nearly 20% from its late-2022 peak.
The two findings can both be true, Kharazian said, because the Stanford study was broader and didn’t focus just on the firms that use AI.
“While there may be overall weak hiring for young people, what we found is that hiring is actually strong at the firms that use AI, and the firms that use AI intensely,” he said.
In another recent study on the impact of AI on jobs, the California AI-unemployment tracker examined the state across industries, education levels and region and highlighted some worrying trends.
It seemed to disprove the understanding that AI has been hurting mostly younger employees and those in entry-level jobs.
It found that unemployment insurance claims among college-educated workers in high-AI-exposed jobs, such as customer service and software development, increased after ChatGPT’s release in 2022 and remained elevated through May 2026.
Unemployment insurance claims among master’s and PhD holders in highly AI-exposed occupations have also risen, moving from a baseline average of 13,000 claims per month in November 2022 to between 16,000 and 22,000 claims per month since mid-2023, the study found.
The study also categorized unemployment claims by age and found that a significant portion of claims were from those aged 36 to 65, signaling that AI’s effect doesn’t only affect early-career jobs.
It also found a higher rate of insurance claims in the San Francisco Bay Area compared with the rest of California, and that job loss claims were concentrated in the technology sector.
In 2026, tech companies have let go of more than 160,000 workers, according to trueup.io, a website tracking industry layoffs.
Many companies have said AI was one of the main reasons for layoffs. Meta, Oracle, Microsoft and other big tech companies have laid off tens of thousands of employees, while simultaneously investing billions in AI data centers.
Ramp’s findings that heavy AI adoption can lead to increased hiring suggests that some of the companies announcing large layoffs may be guilty of blaming regular cost cutting on AI, a practice dubbed “AI washing.”
“When you hear CEOs talk about layoffs and they attribute it to AI, I would be skeptical,” Kharazian said.
Business
Commentary: It’s not just vaccines — from infancy to adolescence, Republicans are waging war on children’s health
The conservative assault on child health starts with the anti-vaccine campaign and proceeds to cutbacks in nutrition assistance and narrowed access to healthcare.
In the old days, before accepted medical protocols came under partisan assault, infants typically received a vitamin K shot to enhance blood-clotting capability and a few drops of an antibiotic to stave off eye infections before leaving the hospital, followed by a thorough round of vaccines against life-threatening diseases.
Americans assumed that “whatever a family could afford, the country had already decided this child was worth protecting,” Robert B. Shpiner, a critical care expert at UCLA medical school, wrote recently. “I have seen children harmed by disease, poverty, by bad luck. I had not, until now, seen them harmed so methodically by their own government.”
Shpiner’s targets were the changes in healthcare policies instituted by the Trump administration generally and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as the mistrust in medical authority that Kennedy and his followers have helped to foment.
We’re going to be paying this bill for years to come, because the lack of proper nutrition has profound effects on learning and disability.
— Robert B. Shpiner, UCLA
As Shpiner wrote in the Guardian, the administration’s assault on child health begins with its anti-vaccination policies. In January, Kennedy’s agency reduced the list of recommended childhood immunizations to 11 from 17, removing shots for COVID-19, hepatitis and meningitis, among other diseases. The agency made the changes without the customary professional consultations, KFF has reported.
But that’s only the tip of the iceberg. “It’s just one thing after another,” Shpiner told me.
What triggered him into writing his Guardian essay, he says, was learning that congressional Republicans had advanced an agriculture appropriations bill that would cut the fruit and vegetable benefit for children in WIC, the supplemental nutritional program for women, infants and children to $10 a month from $26.
“That got me to looking at this as a sequence,” he says, starting with the reduction of child immunizations, followed by the proposed cuts in WIC and the cuts in food stamps enacted as part of the Republican budget bill that Trump signed one year ago Saturday (i.e., the Fourth of July, 2025).
“The image of us taking food away from kids and not giving them enough money to buy some apples and berries—the short-term response is outrage,” he says, “but the medium- and long-term effect is that we’re going to be paying this bill for years to come, because the lack of proper nutrition has profound effects on learning, and disability and anemia. A number of measures of health and success match with nutrition.”
At almost every stage of childhood development, he notes, programs aimed at preserving or enhancing children’s health have gone on the chopping block.
“A vaccine rule one week, a food program the next,” he wrote. “Each change arrives wrapped in a reasonable rationale: fiscal discipline, local control, parental choice. But arrange them in the order a child actually grows, and the rationales stop mattering.”
Judging from their rhetoric, one would think that Republicans would move heaven and earth to foster child immunizations, nutritional assistance and access to medical care.
In “Communion,” his recent book about his conversion to Catholicism, for example, Vice President JD Vance writes: “We want more children in our society because children are profoundly good — the greatest value add we can create.”
Yet the programmatic cutbacks advocated for and implemented by the Republican Congress and Trump give the lie to that sentiment. Let’s examine chapter and verse.
Measles is the canary in the coal mine for vaccination and public health, and at this moment, the canary is singing a doleful tune. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention count 2,134 cases in the U.S. as of June 25. That’s poised to exceed the 2,288 cases in all of 2025, which was the worst outbreak since 1991.
There’s no question why this is happening. It’s because of a decline in measles vaccinations below the 95% generally considered to provide “herd immunity,” in which the disease is so rare that even unvaccinated individuals are protected from exposure.
Kennedy may not deserve all the blame for the immunization decline, but as pseudoscience debunker Steven Novella has pointed out, as secretary he has “done everything possible to undermine vaccine science and confidence in health institutions.”
Kennedy has paid lip service to the value of the MMR vaccine, which combines immunizations for measles, mumps and rubella. But he has claimed without evidence that the vaccine causes deaths “every year” and that the vaccine hasn’t been safety-tested, which isn’t so. He has asserted that it shouldn’t be subject to a government mandate. He also has promoted treatments for measles that aren’t known to be effective.
(The Department of Health and Human Services didn’t respond to my request for comment on the vaccine initiatives.)
As children grow, the crisis of malnutrition kicks in. The House GOP’s cuts to WIC are still only on the drawing board. But the Republican budget bill incorporated cuts to food stamps — the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP — that have driven some 4 million people off the program. In 13 states that have published data, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, child enrollment fell by more than 800,000, or 16%, between July 2025 and May of this year.
“This is where the nutrition cuts become a medical, not merely a moral, story,” Shpiner says. “Iron-deficiency anemia in infancy is associated with poorer cognitive, motor, and behavioral outcomes that persist more than 10 years after the deficiency itself has been corrected — the deficit does not fully reverse even with later treatment. Withdrawing produce and protein from WIC and SNAP at the peak window of brain growth is not a budget line that resets the following year; it is a developmental exposure with a long tail.”
The combination of reduced immunization and poor nutrition build on each other. “Unvaccinated kids are going to get sicker,” he told me. “If they’re malnourished, they’re going to get sicker. If their parents don’t get affordable care, they’re going to be strapped. It becomes a synergistic and multiplicative cascade.”
Indeed, the administration’s assault on Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act intensifies the damage. Enrollment in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which is part of Medicaid, fell by 4.8 million people, or 6%, from March 2025 through March 2026, according to government data. The enrollment decline for children alone came to more than 1.9 million, or 5%.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai challenged the latter figure when I asked for comment. But it came from KFF, which sourced it to the government’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS.
“Nothing has been done to alter insurance or Medicaid coverage of any vaccination,” Desai told me by email, “and parents are encouraged to seek out the counsel of their pediatrician to make the best decisions for their children.”
The prospects are for further declines. That’s because new work requirements for enrollees in Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act are almost certain to drive enrollment down, due to obstacles including paperwork burdens and administrative snafus, resulting in even some eligible enrollees losing their coverage.
(These problems became so pronounced in Arkansas, which implemented work requirements during the first Trump term, that a federal judge axed the program.)
The work rules enacted last year as part of the Republican budget bill aren’t scheduled to start until Jan. 1, but three states are starting early — Nebraska (May 1), Montana (Wednesday) and Iowa (Dec. 1). The impact on enrollment isn’t yet clear.
Whatever the effect of these changes, the public is going to know less about them than before. The reason is that the administration has shrunk the requirements for reports of immunization from states, changing the reports from mandated to voluntary. The affected data include childhood immunization rates against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, measles, mumps and rubella, hepatitis, chicken pox and flu; and rates for 13 year olds and expectant mothers.
“While seemingly a small, technical change, the removal of vaccine reporting in Medicaid and CHIP may make it more difficult to monitor and understand vaccination trends for a large share of children in the U.S.,” KFF noted.
I asked the Department of Health and Human Services to explain the rationale for these changes, and specifically whether they were aimed at obscuring the effect of the narrowing of vaccine recommendations, but didn’t hear back.
Business
How the FIFA World Cup is providing a boost for L.A. businesses
Johnny Beig may have played in a semi professional cricket league in Australia, but this summer he’s a big fan of soccer in the United States.
It’s not just because he’s rooting for the World Cup team, though.
FIFA emblems are featured on jerseys that were created by the Dioz Group and distributed for all employees at the 16 FIFA World Cup venues this summer.
(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
Last year, Beig’s Beverly Hills-based company, Dioz Group, won a $2.5 million contract with On Location, FIFA’s hospitality partner, to design, manufacture and distribute uniforms for all employees working at FIFA World Cup venues this summer.
These include the people welcoming attendees into stadiums, VIP lounge chefs, waiters and the flagbearers during the opening ceremony.
After a multi-step application process, including presentations of its planning and strategy, Dioz says it produced more than 50,000 clothing garments including suits, jackets, shirts and hats and delivered them to the 16 World Cup venues around the U.S., Canada and Mexico in June.
Thanks in part to the World Cup contract, the company’s revenue has reached $15 million so far this year, compared with $20 million last year, Beig said. He declined to disclose the company’s net income but said the business was profitable.
“We are working with larger names that we would have never imagined we would,” he said. “The FIFA World Cup is the pinnacle. Working with the largest sporting event in the world is what we’re very proud of. I don’t think it gets any bigger than that.”
Volunteers line up to prepare to display the Canadian flag before a World Cup round of 32 knock-out match between Canada and South Africa at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
(Kelvin Kuo / Los Angeles Times)
Dioz is among the many small businesses across Los Angeles that are getting a boost from the global sporting event, said Kevin Klowden, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute.
The influx of hundreds of thousands of fans into the city has been a boon to hotels, transportation services and restaurants, in addition to those in the special events and logistics economy, Klowden said, calling the event the “equivalent of multiple Super Bowls.”
“The number of contracts that are there, it’s a big deal,” he said. “Given the fact that L.A.’s filming is only slowly recovering, having something like the World Cup is definitely a boost.”
Dioz was co-founded by Johnny, 44, and his brother Tony in 2006. The brothers were born in India and raised in Australia, where Johnny enjoyed a brief career as a semi professional cricket player.
He realized his future wasn’t as a professional athlete, but he wanted to stay connected to the sports world, so he began making uniforms for his cricket team in 2006.
He then got a referral to make uniforms for multiple teams in the area before starting an apparel company.
“I wanted to stick with something I was passionate about, which is sports,” he said.
Volunteers unravel the center field display before a World Cup round of 32 knock-out match between Canada and South Africa at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
(Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)
In 2012, Beig moved to Los Angeles and established Dioz‘s Los Angeles headquarters to tap into the U.S. market. During the pandemic, the company started supplying medical apparel to hospitals and schools, and the business took off, with revenue doubling in 2020, Beig said.
Dioz now has over 150 employees, including 15 in L.A., and manufactures its apparel at factories in China, India, Bangladesh, Turkey and the Philippines. Tony runs an office in Dubai.
Before the World Cup, Dioz provided employee uniforms for events including Super Bowl LIX and Copa America, which may have given it a leg up on the FIFA contact.
Now, with a World Cup contract on their resume, Beig said he’s setting his sights on even bigger events.
“This gives us an edge over the next FIFA events worldwide as well, where we can showcase our skills and we can handle it,” Beig said. “So it gives us a good opportunity to work with sporting events like the UEFA Championship and Premier League.”
As companies get new business from the World Cup, Klowden said it’s important that they leverage their new position to continue that growth.
Companies that benefited from the World Cup might be in a position to bid on even bigger contracts, especially with the Olympics coming up in 2028, Klowden said.
“The really important part in any of these deals is that if a company ran something like this, then they are able to build off of that success,” Klowden said. “Let’s say you’re a company that did a big uniform order or a big food order, and the World Cup goes, and you invested in new manufacturing capacity, or you invested in new clothing machines, or whatever you do; suddenly you don’t have that market anymore, then you’ve just wasted all that money ramping up.”
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