- CIA produced reports highlighting Cuba’s economic collapse
- Energy sector was portrayed in particularly dire shape
- Trump suggested US raid in Venezuela could cause Cuba to fall
- CIA view was inconclusive on whether economic hardship would mean collapse of the government
World
Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling
MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.
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But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.
CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP
These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.
“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”
The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.
Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.
Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.
ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?
Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.
But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.
The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.
Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.
OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE
Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.
Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.
Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”
He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.
“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.
“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”
Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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World
Could water become a flashpoint between Islamabad and New Delhi?
Pakistan has warned India over the Indus Water Treaty.
The Indus Water Treaty lays out how the river’s resources are to be shared between India and Pakistan.
Brokered in 1960, it has survived decades of conflict between the neighbours.
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But recently, the agreement was put to the test after New Delhi suspended its participation.
That came after an attack India said was carried out by armed groups linked to Pakistan, which it denied.
This week, Islamabad has said India cannot suspend the agreement on its own.
It says its share of the Indus River is a red line and has threatened consequences.
So, how could they avoid a further escalation?
Presenter: Mohammed Jamjoom
Guests:
Siddharth Varadarajan – Founding editor of The Wire, an independent investigative news organisation
Michael Kugelman – Senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council
Zeeshan Salahuddin – Advisory director at Tabadlab, a think tank and consultancy on geopolitics
Published On 2 Jul 2026
World
Variety Toasts French Cinema With Post-Cannes Summer Dinner at Paris’ Laperouse With Thierry Fremaux, Guillaume Canet, Pierre-Antoine Capton, Rebecca Zlotowski and Anamaria Vartolomei
Variety gathered leading figures from the French film industry for its fourth dinner at Lapérouse in Paris, a post-Cannes and summer celebration bringing together Cannes Film Festival director Thierry Frémaux, Mediawan boss Pierre-Antoine Capton, MK2 Films co-CEO Nathanaël Karmitz and Pathé Films president Ardavan Safaee, as well as actors and filmmakers Anamaria Vartolomei, Rebecca Zlotowski, Guillaume Canet, Marina Foïs, Géraldine Nakache and Elsa Zylberstein, among others.
Hosted at the iconic Paris restaurant with the support of co-owners Émilie and Benjamin Patou, the evening toasted the global reach of French cinema after a Cannes edition that showcased a wide range of local and international talent. It also underscored Variety’s longstanding ties with the French movie business and its unique position as a U.S. publication with a strong international and Francophile footprint.
The event was organized by Variety’s international editor Elsa Keslassy, with support from entertainment lawyer Elsa Huisman of Cabinet 111 and awards strategist Sébastien Cauchon of Cinema Collectors. Variety’s deputy international editor Ellise Shafer traveled from London to attend.
Pierre-Antoine Capton, Elsa Keslassy, Ellise Shafer (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
The celebration unfolded in one of Lapérouse’s intimate salons, L’Astrolabe, where the table was dressed in a romantic, candlelit style that matched the post-Cannes mood. A pink patterned tablecloth, white candelabras, low votive candles and small bouquets of summer flowers ran down the center, while gilded mirrors, textured wallpaper, draped windows and a chandelier gave the room an old-world Parisian glow.
Guests dined on a classic Lapérouse menu featuring smoked Norwegian salmon with blinis and dill cream, duck pâté en croûte with foie gras and thyme and the restaurant’s signature truffled croque-royal with comté cheese. Main courses ranged from chicken suprême with morel cream and mashed potatoes to pearly cod with beurre blanc, followed by Lapérouse vanilla cake and a minute-cut seasonal fruit turban.
Frémaux, who just marked his 25th year at the helm of Cannes, was joined by Zlotowski, who originated the idea for “La Vénus électrique,” which played on opening night of this year’s festival; Canet, whose thriller “Karma,” starring Marion Cotillard, played out of competition; and actor-turned-director Nakache, who presented “Think Good” at Cannes Première. Also on hand were Marina Foïs, who was at the festival with Rodrigo Sorogoyen’s “The Beloved,” and Vartolomei, who stars in Pathé’s ambitious two-part historical epic “De Gaulle.” The first installment premiered in Cannes and has since enjoyed a strong rebound at the French box office. She was joined by Safaee, president of Pathé Films, which produced the “De Gaulle” diptych.
Elisha Karmitz, Elisabeth d’Arvieu, Elsa Huisman, Elsa Keslassy, Pierre-Antoine Capton, Thierry Fremaux, Nathanael Karmitz, Ardavan Safaee (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
The gathering also spotlighted several major French production and distribution players. Nathanaël Karmitz, Elisha Karmitz and Fionnuala Jamison represented the MK2 group, which had 11 films at Cannes this year and won four prizes, including the Grand Prix for Andrey Zvyagintsev’s “Minotaur,” the Caméra d’Or and FIPRESCI prize for Marie-Clémentine Dusabejambo’s “Ben’Imana” in Un Certain Regard, and the Grand Prix Ami Paris at Critics’ Week for Marine Atlan’s “La Gradiva.”
Capton, who celebrated Mediawan’s 10th anniversary last month, has just finalized the company’s acquisition of North Road, whose current hit “Backrooms” has grossed more than $331 million worldwide. He was accompanied by Élisabeth d’Arvieu, CEO of Mediawan Pictures. The company was behind nine films at Cannes.
Elisabeth d’Arvieu, Elsa Huisman, Elsa Zylberstein (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
Jérôme Levy, co-founder of Vuelta, was also present after the group’s labels brought more than a dozen films to Cannes, including “La Vénus électrique,” Nakache’s “Think Good” and “A Woman’s Life.”
Top producer Juliette Schrameck, whose credits include Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” attended following a strong Cannes that included Lucas Dhont’s “Coward,” which won the acting prize for its two leads, Emmanuel Macchia and Valentin Campagne, as well as Leïla Marrakchi’s “Les Fraises” in Un Certain Regard.
Dimitri Rassam, Wassim Beji (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
Rassam, producer of “The Count of Monte Cristo,” also attended after producing Paweł Pawlikowski’s Cannes prizewinner “Fatherland” through his banner Chapter 2. He is currently wrapping production on Ladj Ly’s upcoming “Dumas,” which he is making with Srab Films and Pathé Films. Kim Chapiron joined the dinner as he prepares his next film, a thriller set in the clandestine world of beauty. He came with producers Gary Farkas, Olivier Muller and Clément Lepoutre, whose banner Phantasm Group has joined luxury and lifestyle powerhouse The Independents and was at Cannes with James Gray’s “Paper Tiger” and Quentin Dupieux’s “Full Phil.”
Rosa Attab, Olivier Muller, Thierry Fremaux, Rebecca Zlotowski, Frederic Jouve (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
Other guests included CNC president Gaëtan Bruel; Grégoire Chertok, a high-profile investment banker and cinephile who was awarded the Légion d’honneur; Cécile Felsenberg, co-founder of UBBA, who attended with several of the agency’s talents, including Canet and Foïs; and Melita Toscan du Plantier, president of the Marrakech Film Festival and producer of “Homebound,” which was shortlisted for the Oscars this year.
Guillaume Canet, Thierry Fremaux (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
Also present were producers Rosa Attab, whose company January Films has upcoming projects including Chris Andrews’ “Cavendish,” with Sophie Thatcher and Joe Alwyn attached to star; Sophie Mas, who runs the banner MountainA with Natalie Portman and is in post-production on Lena Dunham’s “Good Sex”; Wassim Beji, who recently delivered Yann Gozlan’s box office hit “Guru”; actor Elsa Zylberstein, who is developing several international projects as a producer, including a Simone de Beauvoir film written by Christopher Hampton and set to be directed by Anne Fontaine; and photographer Marcel Hartmann.
Anamaria Vartolomei, Gregoire Chertok, Marina Fois, Jerome Levy, Wassim Beji (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
The evening also welcomed international guests, notably Dylan Leiner, executive VP of acquisitions, production and business affairs at Sony Pictures Classics; and Ama Ampadu, senior production and development executive at the BFI Filmmaking Fund.
Owned by Patou and Antoine Arnault, Lapérouse first opened its doors in 1766 and became a favorite refuge for the Parisian intelligentsia, drawing philosophers, novelists, artists and, later, filmmakers to its salons, lushly decorated with red velvet, paintings, ornate moldings and crystal chandeliers. Tastefully revamped a few years ago by Dior Maison head Cordelia de Castellane, Lapérouse was mentioned by Marcel Proust in “In Search of Lost Time” and served as a backdrop in Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris.”
Anamaria Vartolomei (copyright: Marcel Hartmann)
World
After 1,000 days of war: Many Israeli children carry trauma into summer break
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TEL AVIV: As Israel marks 1,000 days since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 massacre, children — many still coping with the psychological effects of the war — are beginning their summer vacation, with some navigating the uncertainties of traveling abroad amid rising antisemitism and others grappling at home with the anxieties of living in a society shaped by nearly three years of war on multiple fronts.
Lilach, 47, of Kibbutz Eilon, jut over a mile and a half from Israel’s border with Lebanon in the Western Galilee, told Fox News Digital she hopes her children — Yuval, Amit, and Yoni — will finally be able to enjoy a normal summer.
During the war, there was always concern about leaving home. The kids were barely in school and spent most of their time indoors in front of screens,” she said.
“I hope they can now spend time with their friends and enjoy activities together. Tomorrow, Yoni is going to an amusement park. I just want them to have fun, be with their friends and enjoy being kids again,” she added.
ISRAEL ANNOUNCES IT KILLED ONE OF THE ARCHITECTS OF THE OCT. 7 ATTACKS
A woman reacts as the community of Kibbutz Kfar Aza commemorates their members who were killed, taken hostage and who died in captivity, following the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas terrorists, in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, southern Israel, Oct. 16, 2025. (Hannah McKay/Reuters)
Since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, Lilach said, her children have had only one uninterrupted year of school.
“It was hard. They would start school, attend for a month or two, then classes would stop because of the war with Iran or fighting with Lebanon, and then resume. It was difficult to get back into a routine each time. It felt like starting a new school year over and over again,” she said.
People take shelter as Iran launched missiles and drones towards Israel following the US-Israeli attacks. ( Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Despite the repeated disruptions, Lilach said her daughter Amit graduated from high school thanks to her determination and private tutoring. Yoni, however, who has attention deficit disorder, struggled with spending weeks at home during the fighting and will move to a smaller classroom next year to receive additional support.
Evacuated with her family a day after the Oct. 7 attacks, Anat, 50, of Kibbutz Yiftah in the Upper Galilee, less than two miles from Israel’s border with Lebanon, told Fox News Digital that her children changed schools three times before the family returned home in February 2025. During Israel’s recent war with Iran, they were again out of school for about six weeks.
An Israeli school security officer watches on as students enter school (Eitan Elhadz/TPS)
“Every day, having my 10-year-old log on to Zoom for online classes was a challenge. It was very difficult to maintain a routine and continuity in her learning,” Anat said.
With the family hoping to travel abroad this summer, Anat said she has tried to shelter her children from the tidal wave of antisemitism that has emerged globally over the past three years of war.
“We don’t talk at home about people around the world who hate us. We love everyone, and we don’t talk about hate, period. For them, traveling is something wonderful that they can’t wait for,” she said. “Despite how difficult it has been, our children are strong. They have grown up quickly because of everything they’ve been through and know how to cope. We don’t feel sorry for ourselves—we’re fighters.”
EXPERTS URGE EXTREME CAUTION ON IRAN’S ‘CROWN JEWEL’ HEZBOLLAH — TERROR GROUP WITH US BLOOD ON ITS HANDS
Israeli school kids on an outing on June 30, 2026. (Gideon Markowicz/TPS-IL)
Nufar Bar Lipshatz, a developmental psychologist in the Northern District of Clalit Health Services, Israel’s largest healthcare provider, said many children continue to show signs of trauma.
According to data she cited from Israel’s National Insurance Institute, 25,274 children had been officially recognized as victims of hostile acts between Oct. 7, 2023 and the end of 2025. She also referenced a joint study by the Goshen organization and the Israeli Pediatric Association showing that 84% of Israeli children exhibited signs of emotional distress by late 2023 following the cross-border terror assault from Gaza and Hezbollah’s entry into the war from Lebanon the following day.
“We see many symptoms that are connected but manifest differently in each child, whether it’s a child who can’t speak, wets their pants, or develops [nervous] tics,” Bar Lipshatz said. “Trauma is real, and children can’t always express it with words, so they act it out. They reenact running to shelters, their father being deployed, war, aggression and kidnappings during play.”
Protesters attend an anti-Israel demonstration in Leipzig, Germany Jan. 17, 2026. (Christian Mang/Reuters)
She recalled treating a girl who became unable to ride her bicycle because she constantly looked over her shoulder, checking whether someone was behind her.
While summer vacation may offer temporary relief, Bar Lipshatz warned that long breaks from routine can reinforce anxiety.
“We know from research that children need stability and routine because it helps them feel safe. During school breaks, children may feel safer because they are avoiding situations that trigger stress, but over time they are also avoiding facing their fears,” she said. “We need to give parents and children the tools to cope with stress because it will not disappear simply by staying at home.”
Bar Lipshatz, who also works with autistic children, said travel itself can be challenging because unfamiliar sounds and crowded environments may trigger traumatic memories.
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“When you go on vacation, you go to places with lots of people and noise. What we think could be fun can actually become a trigger,” she said, recalling a trip to Romania where bear-warning sirens in a national park sounded identical to Israel’s missile alerts.
She noted that one of her young patients told her she feared traveling abroad because, despite the war, Israel felt more predictable than an unfamiliar country.
In a bid to maintain a sense of routine and help students catch up on lost time, the Israeli Ministry of Education told Fox News Digital that it will continue operating throughout the summer through programs serving approximately 1.12 million students, supported by an investment of about $270 million.
Soldiers carry Oster’s coffin during his funeral on Wednesday in Tel Aviv. (AP/Maya Alleruzzo)
For the first time, middle school students will participate in summer programs focused on artificial intelligence, STEM subjects, mathematics, science, and English. The ministry said the highest participation rates are in northern and southern communities affected by the war.
It also said it will continue providing emotional support through its Psychological Counseling Service, expand psychological services for students in need, and keep its “Voice for All” support hotline operating throughout the summer.
“The education system will continue to support Israeli students during the summer vacation to ensure educational, emotional and social continuity for every student who needs it,” the ministry said.
FROM HOMEROOM TO HATE: HOW JEWISH STUDENTS ARE FACING A NEW KIND OF PRESSURE IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Children affected by the war are also attending summer camps such as those led by OneFamily, an organization that supports victims of terrorism and war and their families.
More than 400 children — each of whom has lost an immediate family member to terrorism or war, most since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks — will take part in OneFamily’s annual summer camp from July 8 to July 13 in the Golan Heights, where they will spend time with other children who share similar experiences of grief and loss.
A central focus of the camp is helping children build resilience while learning to cope with their grief. This year, the organization’s founding director, Chantal Belzberg, received the Israel Prize for Lifetime Achievement.
Israeli children at the OneFamily summer camp, July 2025. (Meir Pavlovski)
Activities include swimming, competitions, sports, but also therapeutic group dialogue circles. On the last night, some campers share stories about their lost loved ones and their own journey to healing, followed by a big concert.
“Children who have lost a parent, both parents or siblings to terrorism or acts of war don’t always want to go to therapy. But when you bring them together with other children who have experienced the same loss, it gives them strength and creates a therapeutic environment,” Belzberg told Fox News Digital.
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“They come to have fun, and through the activities they meet other children who have gone through the same thing. That’s when they begin to talk. Traditional support services are not always places where children want to go,” she continued.
“We bring them together so they meet children who truly understand them. They realize they are not alone and can build a community where they don’t feel isolated. One of the greatest challenges after trauma is isolation,” she added.
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