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Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling

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Exclusive: CIA highlighted Cuba’s grim economy but gave mixed view on government falling
  • CIA produced reports highlighting Cuba’s economic collapse
  • Energy sector was portrayed in particularly dire shape
  • Trump suggested US raid in Venezuela could cause Cuba to fall
  • CIA view was inconclusive on whether economic hardship would mean collapse of the government
MIAMI/WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) – U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s economic and political situation, but its assessments offer no clear support for President Donald Trump’s prediction that last weekend’s military action in nearby Venezuela leaves the island nation “ready to fall,” said three people familiar with the confidential assessments.
The CIA’s view is that key sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.

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But the most recent CIA assessments were inconclusive on whether the worsening economy would destabilize the government, said the people familiar with the intelligence, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information.

CUBA ‘READY TO FALL’: TRUMP

These assessments are notable because Trump and other U.S. officials have suggested that shutting off Venezuelan oil to the island after the Caracas operation could topple the government in Havana, a longtime dream of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and some other high-ranking officials in the Trump administration.

“Cuba looks like it is ready to fall,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “I don’t know if they’re going to hold out, but Cuba now has no income. They got all their income from Venezuela, from the Venezuelan oil.”

The White House, the CIA and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not determine if the CIA had produced an updated assessment since U.S. forces arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro last Saturday.

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Venezuela is Cuba’s top oil supplier. Since Maduro’s capture, the U.S. has successfully pressed Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send essentially all of Venezuela’s oil to the U.S.

Given the dire assessments of Cuba’s energy situation even when Venezuelan oil was flowing to the island, the impacts of Caracas’ shifting oil flows on Cuba’s economy will be severe, independent analysts say.

ENOUGH PAIN FOR A REVOLUTION?

Cuba’s Communist economy has performed poorly for decades amid rigid state planning and a U.S. embargo.

But a confluence of factors in recent years – including Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop-off in tourism following the COVID-19 outbreak – has compounded Cuba’s pain.

The people who were familiar with the intelligence and spoke to Reuters said the CIA had described Cuba’s economy in very poor terms – although their descriptions differed in degree. One official said the situation described in the assessments was not quite as bad as the “Special Period” of the 1990s, a time of prolonged economic pain following the withdrawal of the Soviet Union’s support in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

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One of the officials, however, said blackouts were lasting on average 20 hours a day outside of Havana, which had not occurred previously.

Whether or not economic suffering actually leads to government change is unclear – a reality acknowledged in the CIA assessments.

OUTMIGRATION OF YOUNGER PEOPLE

Two U.S. officials said the U.S. government assessed that there has been a demographic collapse on the island in recent years, with large numbers of people under 50 having migrated from Cuba. That could blunt the push for political reform, which in other countries tends to draw energy from young people.

Cuba’s census estimated the population at over 10 million in 2023, but one of the officials said it likely now stands at less than 9 million.

Richard Feinberg, a professor emeritus at the University of California San Diego who served in high-ranking U.S. national security roles for decades, said economic conditions in Cuba were “certainly very bad.”

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He noted that Cuba’s President, Miguel Díaz-Canel, who took office in 2021, does not have the widespread legitimacy enjoyed by former leader Fidel Castro.

“When a population is really hungry, what it does is, your day-to-day is just about survival. You don’t think about politics, all you think about is putting bread on the table for your family,” Feinberg said.

“On the other hand, people can become so desperate that they lose their fear, and they take to the streets.”

Reporting by Gram Slattery in Miami, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay in Washington
Editing by Craig Timberg and Rod Nickel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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China Box Office: ‘Zootopia 2’ Remains on Top, ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Places Third

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China Box Office: ‘Zootopia 2’ Remains on Top, ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Places Third

China’s theatrical market cooled further in the Jan. 9–11 frame, with Disney’s “Zootopia 2” holding on to the No. 1 spot for a second consecutive weekend after it reclaimed pole position last week.

“Zootopia 2” added RMB49.1 million ($6.9 million), according to Artisan Gateway, lifting its cumulative total to RMB4.31 billion ($607.2 million).

Maoyan Movie’s crime thriller “The Fire Raven” stayed close behind in second place, earning $6.8 million. The film continued to show solid traction, pushing its running total to $42.3 million after less than two weeks in release. Directed and written by Sam Quah, the film stars Peng Yuchang, Alan Aruna and Chang Ning and follows the reopening of a long-dormant murder case that exposes a wider network of corruption and revenge.

James Cameron’s sci-fi epic “Avatar: Fire and Ash” moved to third, grossing $6.5 million over the weekend. The 20th Century Studios release has now reached $146.6 million in China.

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Huace Film & TV’s “Back to the Past” placed fourth with $4.9 million, taking its cumulative haul to $33.7 million. The feature film adaptation of Hong Kong broadcaster TVB’s 2001 historical sci-fi series “A Step Into the Past” is produced by Louis Koo‘s One Cool Film Production, with Koo serving as producer. The project reunites the principal cast from the original television series 24 years after it first aired. Koo stars alongside Raymond Lam, Jessica Hsuan, Sonija Kwok, Joyce Tang and Michelle Saram, all reprising their original roles. New cast members include Bai Baihe, Michael Miu and Louis Cheung. The film marks the final screen appearance of the late Dick Liu Kai-chi.

Rounding out the top five was Chuanqiren Media’s family drama “Unexpected Family,” which collected $900,000 million and stands at $5.5 million to date. The comedy-drama is co-written and directed by Li Taiyan and centers on a young man who leaves his small town for Beijing and ends up entangled with an elderly man with Alzheimer’s who mistakes him for his son. The film stars Jackie Chan, Peng Yuchang, Zhang Jianing and Pan Binlong.

Overall, the China box office generated $31.6 million for the weekend. Year-to-date takings for 2026 have reached $162.4 million, running 9.9% ahead of the same period last year, though the market is clearly settling into a quieter post-festive rhythm with an eye on the Lunar New Year holiday next month when several big ticket releases are expected to bow.

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Five severed heads found hanging on Ecuador beach amid escalating gang clashes

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Five severed heads found hanging on Ecuador beach amid escalating gang clashes

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Five severed human heads were found hanging from ropes on a beach in southwestern Ecuador Sunday in a gruesome display linked to ongoing gang violence sweeping across the country, according to reports.

The killings came amid a wave of bloody violence tied to drug trafficking and organized crime, which has surged across Ecuador in recent years.

The Associated Press reported that the grim discovery underscores the tactics used by criminal groups competing for control of territory and trafficking routes, especially along the country’s coastline.

TREN DE ARAGUA GANG LEADER CHARGED WITH RACKETEERING CONSPIRACY AND COCAINE TRAFFICKING UNDER TRUMP CRACKDOWN

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Drug trafficking gangs leave five human heads on Ecuador beach with a threatening message to fishermen, police said, as violence surges along the country’s coastal trafficking routes. (Kike Calvo/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Police said the heads were found on a tourist beach in the small fishing port of Puerto Lopez, in Manabi province.

The images shared by Ecuadorian media and on social media showed the severed heads tied with ropes to wooden poles planted in the sand, with blood visible at the scene.

A wooden sign left beside the heads carried a threatening message aimed at alleged extortionists targeting local fishermen.

The message warned those demanding so-called “vaccine cards” protection payments commonly extorted by gangs that they had been identified, the report said.

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RUBIO IDENTIFIES ‘SINGLE MOST SERIOUS THREAT’ TO THE US FROM WESTERN HEMISPHERE

Members of the Marines detain a suspect during security operations in southern Guayaquil, Ecuador on October 19, 2021. – Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso on October 19 declared a state of emergency in the country grappling with a surge in drug-related violence. (AFP via Getty Images)

Authorities said the display was likely the result of a conflict between criminal groups operating in the area.

Drug-trafficking networks with links to transnational cartels are active along Ecuador’s coast and have used fishermen and their small boats to transport illicit shipments, according to local police.

President Daniel Noboa launched an armed campaign against gangs and declared states of emergency in several provinces, including Manabi, deploying the military to support police operations.

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Despite his efforts, violence has continued to escalate with police increasing patrols and surveillance in Puerto Lopez following recent massacres in the province, the Associated Press said.

MS-13 GANG LEADER ACCUSED IN MURDER OF EX-HONDURAN PRESIDENT’S SON ARRESTED IN NEBRASKA

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa addresses supporters after early returns show him in the lead in the presidential election runoff at his family home in Olon, Ecuador, Sunday, April 13, 2025.  (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara)

In 2025, at least nine people, including a baby, were killed there in an attack that authorities blamed on clashes between local gangs also.

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As previously reported by Fox News Digital, in 2025, infighting between factions of a gang vying for control over territory in Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil, left nearly two dozen people dead.

Ecuador ended the year with a record homicide rate of 52 per 100,000 people, according to the Organized Crime Observatory, making it the deadliest year on record.

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UN top court set to open Myanmar Rohingya genocide case

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UN top court set to open Myanmar Rohingya genocide case

The United Nations’s top court is set to open a landmark case accusing Myanmar of committing genocide against its mostly Muslim Rohingya minority.

The trial on Monday is the first genocide case that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will take up in full in more than a decade, and its outcome will have repercussions beyond Myanmar, likely affecting South Africa’s petition against Israel over its genocidal war on Gaza.

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The hearings will start at 09:00 GMT on Monday and span three weeks.

The Gambia filed the case against Myanmar at the ICJ, also known as the World Court, in 2019, two years after the country’s military launched an offensive that forced some 750,000 Rohingya from their homes and into neighbouring Bangladesh.

The refugees recounted mass killings, rape and arson attacks.

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A UN fact-finding mission at the time concluded that the 2017 offensive had included “genocidal acts”. But authorities in Myanmar rejected the report, saying its military offensive was a legitimate counterterrorism campaign in response to attacks by alleged Rohingya armed groups.

“The case is likely to ‍set critical precedents for how genocide is defined and how it can be proven, and how violations can be remedied,” Nicholas Koumjian, head of the UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, told the Reuters news agency.

‘Renewed hope’

In Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, Rohingya refugees said they hoped the genocide case would help bring justice.

“We want justice and peace,” said 37-year-old Janifa Begum, a mother of two. “Our women lost their dignity when the military junta launched the eviction. They burned villages, killed men, and women became victims of widespread violence.”

Others said they hoped the case would bring them real change, even though the ICJ has no way to enforce any judgement it might make.

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“I hope the ICJ will bring some solace to the deep wounds we are still carrying,” said Mohammad Sayed Ullah, 33, a former teacher and now a member of the United Council of Rohingya, a refugee organisation.

“The perpetrators must be held accountable and punished,” he said. “The sooner and fairer the trial is, the better the outcome will be… then the repatriation process may begin.”

Wai Wai Nu, the head of Myanmar’s Women’s Peace Network, said the start of the trial “delivers renewed hope to Rohingya that our decades-long suffering may finally end”.

“Amid ongoing violations against the Rohingya, the world must stand firm in the pursuit of justice and a path toward ending impunity in Myanmar and restoring our rights.”

The hearings at the ICJ will mark the first time that Rohingya victims of the alleged atrocities will be heard by an international court, although those sessions will be closed to the public and the media for sensitivity and privacy reasons.

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“If the ICJ finds Myanmar responsible under the Genocide Convention, it would mark a historic step in holding a state legally accountable for genocide,” said Legal Action Worldwide (LAW), a group that advocates for Rohingya rights.

Separate ICC case

During the preliminary hearings in the ICJ case in 2019, Myanmar’s then-leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, rejected The Gambia’s accusations of genocide as “incomplete and misleading”. She was later toppled by the military in a coup in 2021.

The power grab plunged Myanmar into chaos, with the military’s violent crackdown on pro-democracy protests sparking a nationwide armed rebellion.

While Myanmar’s military continues to deny the accusations of genocide, the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), established by elected lawmakers after the 2021 coup, said it has “accepted and welcomed” the jurisdiction of the ICJ, adding that it has “withdrawn all preliminary objections” previously submitted on the case.

In a statement ahead of the hearing, the NUG acknowledged the government’s failures, which it said “enabled grave atrocities” to take place against minority groups. It also acknowledged the name Rohingya, which the previous elected government, including Aung San Suu Kyi, had refused to do.

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“We are committed to ensuring such crimes are never repeated,” the NUG said.

Myanmar’s military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, is facing a separate arrest warrant before the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his role in the persecution of the Rohingya.

The ICC prosecution said the general “bears criminal responsibility for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya, committed in Myanmar, and in part in Bangladesh.”

Additionally, the Burmese Rohingya Organisation UK (BROUK) has accused the military government of “intensifying genocide” against the Rohingya since taking power in 2021.

Myanmar is currently holding phased elections that have been criticised by the UN, some Western countries and human rights groups as not free or fair.

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