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Equipment finance outlook optimistic as legislation, investment bolster industry

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Equipment finance outlook optimistic as legislation, investment bolster industry

After difficulties this year, next year looks to be better for the equipment finance industry as government legislation and investment in data centers and AI provide opportunities for financiers. 

The U.S. economy heads into 2026 resilient, with real gross domestic product growth of 1.8% and a 6.2% increase in equipment and software investment, according to the 2026 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, released today by the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation. Strong equipment demand, AI-driven capital spending and equity market strength should drive growth for the industry. 

ELFA 2026 Economic Forecasts
(Courtesy/Equipment Leasing and Finance Association)

Rather than a typical temporary cyclical downturn, after 2025 the equipment industry faces a systemic change, Michael Sharov, a partner in consulting firm Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told Equipment Finance News. Evolving channels, customer fragmentation, labor shortages, and digital and supplier realignment will drive change and create opportunities for dealers, lenders and OEMs. 

“Systemic change is going to happen, but the industries are not going to fall apart.” — Michael Sharov, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman

The equipment industry can still prosper because they serve “essential use” industries such as food, infrastructure and materials, “so there is high confidence in recovery, as long as everyone does not hunker down, but uses this downturn,” he said.

Amid restructuring, lenders face battles around asset transparency, uptime and service capacity, changing underwriting factors, longer trade cycles and elevated importance of used equipment, even with the strong long-term outlook, Sharov said. 

In industries such as transportation, mergers and acquisitions will allow stronger players to pick up clients as capacity shifts across the industry, Anthony Sasso, head of TD Equipment Finance and senior vice president at TD Bank, told EFN. 

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“There are more opportunities for companies to pick up good clients for those companies that are financially sound and well-heeled,” he said. “We’re seeing that today.” 

Equipment finance industry set for growth 

Meanwhile, the equipment finance industry appears set for growth in 2026 alongside the U.S. economy’s recovery following a year plagued by economic uncertainty, Cedric Chehab, chief economist at economic research firm BMI, said during a Dec. 11 webinar. 

Factors supporting industry growth include fiscal stimulus and bonus depreciation because of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, additional Federal Reserve rate cuts that are anticipated, resilient corporate profitability and earnings, and especially, continued investment in AI and data centers, which could affect the economy on multiple levels, Chehab said. 

“When you combine the huge strengths of AI and the software around AI and the LLMs and how they interact with machines and robotics, they could boost productivity even further,” he said. “Many economies, and in particular the U.S. economy, are pursuing aggressive industrial policy, driving investment in cutting-edge technology, which will not only foster greater competition to a degree, but really accelerate the pace of development of these technologies.”

Deductions, depreciation under OBBBA

A full year under the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, should spur equipment investment, especially for the equipment sectors in need of recovery, according to a Nov. 19 Wells Fargo research note. 

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“By making bonus depreciation permanent, firms can fully expense capital equipment, machinery and qualifying real estate improvements,” according to the note. “This change, along with other tax incentives, reduced policy uncertainty and lower borrowing rates, should provide support to investment growth next year and keep the CapEx cycle rolling.” 

While increased deductions, bonus depreciation and financing can improve liquidity to help pay for replacement assets, weak trucking and finance fundamentals mean the incentives alone may not be enough to drive new equipment purchases, TD’s Sasso said. 

“That’s probably one of the areas that, if you see an uptick in that, it may promote more CapEx spending, and this not only applies to the trucking vertical, but it’s for a number of other verticals,” he said. “If you see more CapEx spend, then you’d see the financing go along with that, and that’s where those benefits would kick in.” 

Data centers boost construction 

Investment in data centers and technology is also expected to continue in 2026, according to the Wells Fargo note. 

“The race to build out the next generation of AI capabilities with the latest information processing equipment, software and new data centers has led capital spending to charge ahead despite elevated policy uncertainty,” according to the note. “But this concentration in tech spending glosses over undeniable weakness in more traditional CapEx categories, such as transportation equipment and commercial construction.”

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Wells Fargo Tech InvestmentWells Fargo Tech Investment
(Courtesy/Wells Fargo)

Data centers also require significant capital, with financing for U.S. data centers projected to reach $60 billion in 2025, according to a Dec. 11 release from the Equipment Leasing and Finance Foundation focused on data centers.  

In the wider construction segment, sentiment toward growth remains cautious in some regions, with nearly half of construction firms in the Minneapolis Federal Reserve region feeling more pessimistic than they did in mid-2025, Erick Luna, director of regional outreach for the region, said during a Dec. 12 webinar. 

“Some of the same challenges showed up in this change of outlook, a slowdown in projects, reduced RFPs, tariffs, etc.,” he said. “Almost half [of the firms] expected backlogs to keep contracting, and in turn, [fewer] projects will be completed and so on.” 

Equipment industry faces more challenges 

Meanwhile, executives rated the state of the industrials market a 5.7 out of 10, down from 8 last year, according to Oliver Wyman’s 2025 State of Industrial Goods North America, Non-Road report, released on Dec. 3. The report surveyed 105 equipment manufacturer executives in conjunction with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. 

Exhibit 1: Rating of the current state of industrial goods sectorsExhibit 1: Rating of the current state of industrial goods sectors
(Courtesy/Oliver Wyman)

Looking ahead, indicators such as farm receipts, construction activity, residential starts and large data center projects will be central to assessing demand across agriculture and construction, Nate Savona, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice, told EFN. 

“What we got from the members that we worked with who are living and breathing the industry is there is cautious optimism, but they’re not feeling great right now. The original sentiment for the [State of Industrial Goods] report was done six months ago or so, and then we revisited the question in the past month, and the sentiment was the same, so it hasn’t gotten better yet.” — Nate Savona, transportation and advanced industrial partner, Oliver Wyman

While the outlook for 2026 does come with optimism, BMI’s Chehab pointed to several risk factors, including: 

  • A weakening labor market;  
  • Higher-than-expected inflation;  
  • Limited Fed easing due to inflation;  
  • Financial market volatility due to a potential AI bubble;  
  • Escalating trade tensions; and  
  • Political uncertainty tied to midterm elections. 

Despite the challenges, there’s cautious optimism for 2026, with the potential rebound of the trucking industry on the back of improving values serving as a bellwether for the broader economy, TD’s Sasso said. 

“When you look at values, we may be in a trough right now where we’ve hit the bottom, and hopefully those valuations, we’re going to see coming back up,” he said. “Overall, there’s much more optimism going into 2026, and hopefully that is the case that would benefit all businesses, including ours.” 

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IMF, World Bank say restoring relations with Venezuela, recognizing interim government

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IMF, World Bank say restoring relations with Venezuela, recognizing interim government
Recognition of the Rodriguez government grants legitimacy and potentially unlocks new financial support, both from official sources and potentially from the private sector, an expert told AFP (Kent NISHIMURA) · Kent NISHIMURA/AFP/AFP

The IMF and World Bank said Thursday they are restoring relations with Venezuela, further legitimizing the interim government and opening new doors to financial support.

“Guided by the views of International Monetary Fund members representing a majority of the IMF’s total voting power, and consistent with long standing practice, the Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva today announced that the IMF is now dealing with the Government of Venezuela, under the administration of acting President Delcy Rodriguez,” it said in a statement.

Over recent days, the Fund polled its members on whether they saw Rodriguez as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.

The World Bank quickly followed the Fund in recognizing the Rodriguez government, saying in a statement, “Guided by the outcome of the IMF’s polling process, the World Bank Group today announced that it is resuming dealings with the Government of Venezuela, under the administration of acting President Delcy Rodríguez.”

Recognition of the Rodriguez government by both institutions paves the way them to formally begin economic data-gathering, provide technical advice,  and to potentially offer financial support to the government, if Venezuela were to ask for it.

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Relations between the financial institutions and Venezuela broke down in March 2019 when the Fund recognized the country’s opposition — which controlled parliament — as the legitimate government of the South American country.

Rodriguez was the country’s vice president until early January, when US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a shock overnight operation. Rodriguez was subsequently made interim president.

Since then, Washington has exerted heavy pressure on the country to open its economy to foreign investment — especially its energy sector.

“Trump frequently and publicly talks about how much he likes Delcy and how closely they’re working together,” Henry Ziemer at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington told AFP. “But the institutional recognition is, I think, an important next step — going beyond the personal to the institutional.”

“It’s important for Delcy’s appearance of legitimacy,” he said.

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Beyond the funds that could now flow from the IMF and the World Bank, the institutional recognition could reassure foreign private investors who were anxious about taking bets on the country.

“I think as many green lights is good, I should say necessary for foreign direct investment to start flowing into Venezuela,” Ziemer said, while noting that the security situation was still fragile.

The announcement comes during the week-long IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings that has drawn thousands of government officials, economists, investors and observers to Washington.

Behind the scenes, the US has encouraged greater engagement with Venezuela under Rodriguez.

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On Tuesday the US eased sanctions on the Venezuelan Central Bank, while on the same day US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previewed this decision, saying the Fund was “working on bringing Venezuela back in, to make it look more like a normal economy.”

Rodriguez, a veteran of the left-wing “Chavista” Venezuelan political movement, is the first woman to sit atop Venezuela’s government.

Her position over the long-term is not guaranteed, however.

Last week, Venezuela’s opposition called for fresh presidential elections, citing the country’s constitution.

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Bank of America’s 18,000 financial advisors just got a new AI tool as the company posts a record quarter | Fortune

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Bank of America’s 18,000 financial advisors just got a new AI tool as the company posts a record quarter | Fortune

Good morning. Bank of America posted its strongest earnings in nearly two decades, and CFO Alastair Borthwick says AI is becoming key to the bank’s performance.

The bank reported on Wednesday that Q1 2026 net income was $8.6 billion, with earnings per share up 25% to $1.11, which is the highest level in almost 20 years. On a media call, Borthwick pointed to AI as an increasingly important driver, highlighting a new internal tool for financial advisors.

The Meeting Journey tool helps advisors prepare for client meetings by pulling together key information. BofA has about 18,000 financial advisors across its wealth management platform, serving millions of clients, he said. Before meeting with a client, advisors regularly need to update themselves with a wide range of information such as client history, recent activity, and CIO guidance, he explained. 

The tool searches and consolidates client relationship insights and recent activity into ready-to-use prep materials and, with client consent, acts as an AI notetaker during virtual meetings. It also summarizes meeting decisions and next steps based on those notes. The goal is to cut down hours of manual prep and free advisors to focus on client relationships.

“Efforts like this translate into results,” Borthwick said, pointing to record first-quarter revenue and improved cost control. 

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Preparing for meetings once meant pulling data from multiple systems; now much of that work is automated, he said. “Not necessarily the judgment—that can be human,” Borthwick added. The bank invests around $13.5 billion annually in technology, including approximately $4 billion on new initiatives like AI.

More broadly, BofA’s strong quarter was driven by several factors:
—Net interest income rose 9% to $15.9 billion as loan and deposit growth accelerated.
—Trading revenue hit $6.3 billion—its best in roughly 15 years—boosted by a record high 30% jump in equities.
—Investment banking fees climbed 21% to $1.8 billion on a solid M&A market.
—Asset management fees grew 15% to $4.2 billion.
—Productivity gains, including from AI, helped the company maintain cost discipline and improve its efficiency ratio by 170 basis points to 61%. 

With revenues outpacing expenses, BofA achieved its third consecutive quarter of operating leverage at 2.9%. This week, Morningstar raised its fair value estimate for BofA to $65 per share, up from $58.

Amid ongoing uncertainty around geopolitics, rates, and credit, Borthwick said the bank’s data shows a resilient U.S. consumer. Unemployment remains at around 4.3%, supporting spending, while a recent rise in gas outlays hasn’t materially changed the broader picture, he said. “You can see that in our asset quality,” he added.

Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

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Christopher Filiaggi was appointed interim CFO of Corebridge Financial, Inc. (NYSE: CRBG), effective April 24. Filiaggi, chief accounting officer of Corebridge since 2023, will serve as interim CFO while the company prepares for its planned merger with Equitable Holdings, Inc. This appointment follows the previously announced transition of CFO Elias Habayeb. Prior to his current role, Filiaggi held finance leadership positions with Corebridge and American International Group, Inc.

Sean McCabe was appointed CFO of Cineverse, an entertainment technology company (Nasdaq: CNVS), effective April 20. He succeeds Mark Lindsey, with whom the company is in discussions to transition into a senior financial consulting role. McCabe previously served as VP and corporate controller at Cineverse in 2023 and 2024. He returns from Freestar, an ad-tech company, where he led accounting and finance teams and worked on mergers and acquisitions, treasury, and capital structure optimization. Before joining Freestar and Cineverse, McCabe held controller positions at Jukin Media, Fulgent Genetics, and National Grid.

Big Deal

BridgeWise’s inaugural “State of AI for Wealth in 2026” report finds that 78% of respondents globally are using AI tools for investment-related queries, with nearly half (45.7%) emerging as power users, consulting AI “always” or “often” when seeking investment information. The global study is based on 2,100 respondents across 19 countries.

The report also introduces a Global Wealth AI Optimism Index, a proprietary benchmark that evaluates the 19 included countries through four weighted pillars: adoption (AI usage frequency), confidence (trust in AI accuracy), edge (perceived competitive advantage when using AI for investing), and momentum (intent to replace traditional investment research with AI).

Going deeper

“From wool sneakers to GPUs: Allbirds’ desperate AI pivot and 600% stock surge, explained” is a Fortune article by Phil Wahba.

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On Wednesday, Allbirds, a sustainable footwear brand, “announced that it had secured $50 million in financing to turn itself into a tech company with a ‘long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider’ and that it would change its name to NewBird AI,” Wahba writes. You can read more here.

Overheard

“When people understand how their work drives the company’s value, they act like owners: they innovate, they solve problems, and they stay.”

—Vicente Reynal, chairman, president, and CEO of Ingersoll Rand, writes in a Fortune opinion piece titled “Here’s how employee ownership helped drive more than 8x enterprise value growth.”

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Buyers snap up homes for $200,000 under asking price as ‘fear and mystery’ grips Aussie property

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Buyers snap up homes for 0,000 under asking price as ‘fear and mystery’ grips Aussie property
Buyers are reporting making ‘lowball’ offers and having some success. (Source: REA/Getty)

When George Cherchian attended an open home in Sydney’s west recently, he was on the look out for one thing. A key detail would indicate how much competition he would have in vying for the house.

He attended every inspection for the property prior to the scheduled auction date. And when he didn’t see it, the buyers agent knew he was in a good position.

“I went to every single open home, and what I look for there is essentially the same faces. So if I’m seeing your face at every open I go to for one particular property, it tells me that you are just as interested in it as my clients are, or as I am,” he told Yahoo Finance.

“But that wasn’t the case here, we didn’t have any sort of repeat faces.”

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In the end, he put an offer in ahead of the planned auction date. Despite it being considerably lower than the advertised asking price, the vendor ultimately accepted it.

On behalf of the buyer, he secured the Baulkham Hills property for $1.9 million, $200,000 below the $2.1 million asking price.

Cherchian explained that in this particular case the vendor was in a position “where they couldn’t really afford to defer the settlement” as they had to sell because they had committed to buying another property.

But as “caution” grips property markets in Australia’s capital cities thanks to rising interest rates, higher fuel prices, ongoing uncertainty with the Iran war and impending policy changes around the taxation of investment properties, Cherchian said the sale is emblematic of the opportunities buyers can find right now in a less competitive market.

“Now that there are not as many buyers to contend with, there’s almost a bit of a window of opportunity for those who are able to make a decision,” he told Yahoo Finance.

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Overall, he said many buyers in Sydney were showing increased “caution” during so much uncertainty. As a result, “the things that need to transact, they are transacting at a discount”.

An auction for an Australian house with limited interest.
It’s been years since buyers were perceived to have much leverage in most Aussie housing markets. (Source: Getty)

Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne dropped in March, with the most recent results from April showing a clearance rate of just 54 per cent in Sydney, according to Domain, about 10 per cent lower than at the same time last year.

Dwelling prices went backwards in Sydney and Melbourne in the March quarter this year, according to property data giant Cotality. Prices fell 0.6 per cent in Melbourne and 0.2 per cent in Sydney.

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