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Betting Texas A&M-Texas: Why the balanced Aggies pose problems for Longhorns

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Betting Texas A&M-Texas: Why the balanced Aggies pose problems for Longhorns


No. 3 Texas A&M walks into Austin with everything still on the table, while No. 17 Texas is clinging to the final thread of a postseason dream that’s been unraveling since the team was ranked preseason No. 1 for the first time in their history.

One side is chasing a conference title, and the other is trying to keep its season from folding in its own backyard. The matchup has urgency, consequence and an energy that guarantees excitement, twists and everything in between, but the reasons why sit beneath the surface.

Saddle up … Aggies versus Longhorns is about who can handle the ride.

All odds by ESPN BET


No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 17 Texas Longhorns
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Texas A&M -2.5
Money line: Texas A&M (-120), Texas (Even)
Over/Under: 51.5 (O -110, U -110)

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Texas: a team that lives in between potential and production

This Texas team can be so much more and maybe in 2026 they can be. They have the quarterback talent, the receiver room and the pass-rush ceiling, and the solid markers to build a base that can go toe to toe with any team in the country.

Unfortunately, we’ve been seeing the same story unfold since the start of the season, even a continuation of last year. Texas moves through games with volatility instead of a steady foundation. When Arch Manning has time, the Longhorns can hit explosives in a way that genuinely scares opponents. He’s thrown 23 touchdowns and is throwing 8.1 yards per pass, which shows that the ability is there, the firepower is there.

The catch is how often the Longhorns offense is forced into that mode. The run game is nearly non-existent, hovering near 3.7 yards per carry, outside of the top 100 in the country, which means they aren’t consistently living in second-and-4 or even third and manageable. This can make such a difference. Instead, we see Texas always one negative play away from giving possessions back. It means Manning is having to manufacture answers to predicaments that shouldn’t exist. The offense isn’t giving him the framework, so he’s sticking it together on the fly.

On the fly doesn’t work in competitive football unless you’re Johnny Manziel.

Defensively, the effort is there and the pressure numbers are real, generating over 200 pressures, but the coverage isn’t airtight enough to hide the moments where the pass rush doesn’t immediately hit.

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When Texas wins, the question is always, “is Texas good?” And when they lose, it’s always “oh, right, that’s more like it.” The Longhorns are talented, explosive, and competitive, but Texas is also dependent on conditions, timing, rhythm, and quarterback brilliance. That’s the space they operate in and why their path to winning requires chaos, which means a lot of things have to go right, far more than it should.

Texas A&M: a team with a fully formed identity and multiple ways to win

The Aggies are built with an offense that doesn’t lean on one player or one phase, it’s the product of balance. Texas A&M has a run game that actually shifts the way defenses behave, averaging 5 yards per carry, top 30 in the FBS, giving them a kind of control most teams never find. The Aggies playcalling can stay patient. It means comebacks can happen, it means Marcel Reed can operate a system designed for efficiency, not heroism.

Reed’s 9.0 yards per pass is happening because the offense is forcing defenses into conflict on every snap. The scoring outputs back it up: 54 total touchdowns on the season is a clear sign that the Aggies can finish drives and don’t waste possessions. The red zone efficiency tells the same story. A&M plays football with the understanding that momentum is built, stacked and maintained.

Defensively, tackling has been a weak point but it hasn’t derailed their ability to dictate games or control pace. The Aggies play inside their identity every week, an advantage that shows up when the games get tight.

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Betting consideration: Texas A&M -2.5

The Aggies are the more complete team so this is a wager that backs up the side that holds up under pressure. In KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, they have a WR duo that is a matchup nightmare for a Texas secondary that sits out of the top 50 in coverage grade, and has been vulnerable anytime the pass rush doesn’t close.

Concepcion’s ability to separate underneath and Craver’s vertical range stretch the defense horizontally and vertically at the same time, forcing Texas into coverage trade-offs they haven’t solved all year.

Then there’s the Aggies defense, which plays aggressively with over 200 pressures on the season, but aren’t reckless. They’ll heat up Manning without exposing themselves behind it. That kind of balance matters against a Texas offense that’s built on volatility. Texas needs pop-offs to survive, which becomes harder when the opposing front dictates and the back end holds up well enough to avoid collapse.

If the Aggies play balanced and are able to attack the exact weak points Texas can’t hide, then laying a short number on the road is justified, and possibly even a few points short.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • Texas is 0-4 ATS against AP Top-5 teams since the start of last season, worst in FBS.

  • The Aggies are 7-15 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, T-worst among Power 4 schools with UGA (min. 20 games).

  • Texas is 5-1-1 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years, T-best in FBS with Notre Dame/App State (min. 5 games).

  • Texas A&M is 3-7-2 ATS when the spread is between a FG (+3 to -3) since 2022, worst among power conference teams (min. 10 games as Power 4 team in span).



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Texas A&M Lands Second Big-Time Defensive Line Commitment In Transfer Portal

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Texas A&M Lands Second Big-Time Defensive Line Commitment In Transfer Portal


Texas A&M has been hard at work attempting to rebuild the trenches on both sides of the ball thus far through the transfer portal window.

That journey has gone smoothly as well, with the Aggies landing offensive tackles Tyree Adams (LSU) and Wilkin Formby (Alabama) as well as interior linemen Coen Echols (LSU) and Trovon Baugh (South Carolina) on one side of the ball, and edge rushers Ryan Henderson (San Diego State) and Anto Saka (Northwestern) and defensive tackle Brandon Davis-Swain (Colorado) on the other.

Now, they have added another name to that mix on the defensive side of the ball, and have done so from another power conference talent.

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According to multiple reports, the Aggies have gained a commitment from Illinois defensive tackle Angelo McCullom. He made his decision final following a recent visit to Aggieland.

Who is Angelo McCullom?

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Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Ryan Browne is sacked by Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Angelo McCullom | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

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The sophomore defensive lineman has spent his first two seasons with Illinois and will have two years of college eligibility remaining.

The six-foot-two, 300-pound defensive lineman saw the field in all 12 games for Illinois this season and earned two starts. In his appearances, McCullom recorded 19 tackles, three tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, two quarterback hurries, and two pass breakups this season.

The sophomore was also on the field plenty throughout 2025 as he played 295 snaps, the most among Illinois interior defensive linemen, where he earned a 66.9 grade by Pro Football Focus.

McCullom saw the field quickly as a true freshman in the 2024 season, where he played in seven games and tallied two tackles, .5 tackles for loss, and .5 sacks.

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The product out of Pickerington North High School in Lewis Center, OH, was a three-star prospect in the 2024 recruiting class. McCullom ranked as the No. 139 defensive lineman in the class and the No. 46 prospect in Ohio, per 247Sports, and committed to Illinois over the likes of Indiana and Pittsburgh.

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McCullom now joins Davis-Swain on the interior, who committed to Texas A&M earlier this week on Jan. 5. The six-foot-four, 290-pound defensive lineman recorded 15 tackles, 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and one pass defended for the Buffaloes this season.

And his addition now brings in an experienced player in a physical conference like the Big Ten, with the size and frame that can hold up and be productive in the SEC.

The two additions doesn’t mean the Aggies are done on the interior defensively.

Rather, far from it. And far from being done in the portal overall.

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Nate Oats blasts Alabama basketball after Texas loss: ‘Losing doesn’t bother them enough’

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Nate Oats blasts Alabama basketball after Texas loss: ‘Losing doesn’t bother them enough’


Alabama basketball had every chance to beat Texas on Saturday. Time and time again, UA pulled it close, only to blow the opportunity to win.

Instead, the Crimson Tide fell 92-88, dropping to 1-2 to begin SEC play, and taking its second straight defeat. Afterward, Nate Oats went off on his team.

“We got guys that don’t care enough to lock in and follow a game plan,” Oats said during his postgame press conference. “Losing doesn’t bother them enough yet. I don’t know how many losses it’s going to take ‘till it bothers them, but it’s bothering me. It bothers the coaching staff, and as soon as it starts bothering the players enough, I’m sure they’ll change.”

On the defensive end, Alabama couldn’t get enough stops when it needed to. Texas’ Jordan Pope led all scorers with 28 points, tying his career high.

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Dailyn Swain and Tramon Mark had 18 each for the Longhorns. UT averaged 1.314 points per possession.

Alabama’s defensive efficiency dropped to 79th in the nation following the loss according to KenPom.

“All of it starts with effort,” Oats said of the defensive issues. “Want to. Competitive edge. Guys who just don’t want to lose, they’re gonna give you everything they got. Guys are apparently too comfortable with losing right now because they’re not giving us everything they got on that end of the floor. SO I think it starts with having guys that just refuse to lose, to start with.

“From there it goes to guys in the moment having some personal pride on stopping their man. Too many blow-bys.Too many isolation plays were just beat one-on-one. Guys not locked in on the help side.”

Another issue for Alabama late in the game was poor free-throw shooting. UA hit 11-of-12 attempts in the first half, but went just 8-for-15 from the line in the second, which became crucial as the referees made their presence known late.

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Oats was asked what went wrong from the charity stripe.

“When you’re worried about the wrong stuff,” Oats said. “When you’re locked in, you’re locked in. When you’re locked into defense, all you care about is winning the game. And when you’re locked in on the defensive end, then you go to the line and you’re locked in and you’re just focused on winning the game, you’re gonna step up and you’re gonna make your free throws.

“And when you’re worried about a lot of stuff that’s a distraction and you’re worried about stats and some other stuff and you’re not locked in, that’s when you get to the line and you miss. Especially when you’re a good shooter. Guys that should be making free throws at a high level.”

Alabama travels to Mississippi State on Tuesday to try and get back on track, before a Saturday trip to Oklahoma. Oats did offer some hope that his team would improve, drawn from the team that just beaten the Crimson Tide.

Texas coach Sean Miller had called out his team after its previous loss to Tennessee.

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“It bothered Texas,” Oats said. “Texas lost two in a row and started 0-2 (in the SEC). That team looked a lot different than the team that played at Tennessee. So it obviously bothered them enough to change. So hopefully at some point it bothers our guys enough that they’ll invest on the defensive end of the floor.”



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Cal Pulls Young Linebacker From Texas A&M Out of the Portal

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Cal Pulls Young Linebacker From Texas A&M Out of the Portal


Tristan Jernigan, a Texas A&M sophomore linebacker who was a four-star prospect in high school, has signed with Cal out of the transfer portal.

Jernigan comes to Berkeley with three years of eligibility after seeing action in just two games this season. He played against Notre Dame without any stats and had three tackles, including one tackle for loss, against Samford.

He is the second members of the Aggies’ squad to join the Bears, following defensive end Solomon Williams, who signed last Sunday.

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The 6-foot-1, 230-pounder from Tupelo, Miss., also drew interest from Tennessee, Memphis, Louisville, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Baylor and San Diego State.

Jernigan played eight games as a true freshman in 2024, primarily on special teams. He had 11 tackles, including five against McNeese State, and was named the team’s defensive scout team player of the year.

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At Tupelo High School, Jernigan had 177 tackles with 11.5 sacks his final two seasons. Those teams compiled a  two-year record of 22-4 with a Class 6A state semifinal appearance as a junior in 2022.

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He was rated by 247 Sports as the No. 28 linebacker prospect in the class and the No. 9 recruit in the state of Mississippi.

He is not related to former Cal linebacker Myles Jernigan, who was from Grand Prairie, Texas, and spent five years in Berkeley through the 2023 season.

Follow Jeff Faraudo on Twitter, Facebook and Bluesky

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