Texas
Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls
Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, said she is “seriously weighing” a Senate run in the Lone Star state as polls suggest she would be a favorite in the Democratic primary.
Newsweek reached out to Crockett’s campaign and office for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats are facing tough math in next year’s Senate elections, forcing them to turn to conservative states like Texas to win a majority next year.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points—and North Carolina—which supported President Donald Trump by about three points—as their top opportunities to flip.
But no other Republican senator seat in Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for reelection next year, meaning Democrats must compete in states like Texas, where polls point to a potentially competitive race, to have a chance at winning control of the chamber. Crockett’s potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, where several prominent lawmakers are already vying for the nomination.
What to Know
Crockett, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, has garnered national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump and other Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris named her as a Democrat who is “authentic” when discussing future leadership of the party.
She told Politico’s Dasha Burns this week that she is mulling a potential Senate bid.
“I am seriously weighing it to the extent that I am about to spend a lot of money to get data,” she said. “I’m a data-driven person. I will tell you that I personally believe that Texas needs to do something different if they want a different result. That’s just the bottom line.”
Crockett said she has had “multiple” conversations with a potential campaign director and is weighing who will be the Republican nominee. She does not believe any Democrat could defeat incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn.
If she runs, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, in the primary. Representative Joaquin Castro and former Representative Beto O’Rourke have also been floated as potential candidates, though neither has jumped into the race yet.
Crockett led the most recent poll of the Texas Democratic primary race, which found her with 31 percent. Talarico and O’Rourke followed with 25 percent each, while 13 percent said they would vote for Allred. Six percent were unsure of who they would support.
In the general election polling, Crockett trailed Republican candidates.
Cornyn led Crockett by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent), while Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 2-point lead against her (49 percent to 47 percent). Representative Wesley Hunt led Crockett by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).
The poll surveyed 1,650 respondents from September 19 to October 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points.
O’Rourke held a lead over Crockett in a University of Texas at Tyler poll. Thirty-one percent said they’d vote for the former Congressman, while 29 percent said they would cast their ballots for Crockett. Allred had 25 percent support, while Castro had 13 percent.
It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17 to September 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed similar results. In that poll, 27 percent of respondents said they’d back O’Rourke, while 26 percent said they’d vote for Crockett.
Allred, Talarico and Castro followed at 13 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
The poll surveyed 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Kalshi’s betting market gives Talarico the best chance of winning the party’s nomination at 50 percent. It gives Crockett a 25 percent and Allred a 22 percent chance of winning the primary.
What People Are Saying
Crockett told Politico’s Dasha Burns: “By the time we start spending money, I think it’s less about people learning, ‘Oh there’s a Jasmine Crockett. Who is she?’ And it’s more about, ‘Do we like her enough to go out and knock doors, to make phone calls, to send text messages, to tell our neighbors, to get people riled up?’”
Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek earlier in October: “Both in rhetoric and actions, Crockett and O’Rourke are seen as really fighting against the Trump administration and Republicans more generally. That’s something that endears them to Democratic primary voters, who don’t really want to see a pragmatist.”
What Happens Next
Whether Crockett will announce a run for the Texas Senate is yet to be seen. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.
Texas
Neighbors rally after North Texas hostage apologizes for 24-hour standoff
A North Texas woman is apologizing to her neighborhood after being held hostage for more than 24 hours during a standoff that shut down a Providence Village subdivision and disrupted school bus service.
CBS News Texas obtained a post from the woman, who wrote, “I am so sorry, everyone, all of you have such wonderful families, and I’m sorry to bring this monster to us.”
Neighbors responded with support, telling her, “We are here for you,” and “Don’t be sorry, we were just so worried for you.”
Suspect faces multiple felony charges
Authorities said the woman was rescued by the FBI and SWAT after allegedly being held by 57‑year‑old Michael Miller. He faces charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, unlawful restraint, aggravated kidnapping, burglary of a habitation, and violation of bond/protective order.
Miller received bonds on all charges except aggravated kidnapping and aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. His total bond on the remaining charges is $4.5 million.
Neighbors sheltered in place for more than a day
Residents of the Foree Ranch subdivision are now trying to return to normal, but many say the experience is still lingering.
Preston Turner said he walked into the situation unexpectedly.
“I went to leave my house roughly on Monday morning, around 1 a.m., to go help a friend out that was in need,” Turner said. “I opened my garage, and I was approached by two SWAT members, and they were telling me to hurry up and close my garage and that we could not leave the house.”
Turner, his wife and children spent the next 24-plus hours hosting neighbors who lived across the street from the victim’s home. He streamed the standoff live on TikTok until authorities asked him to stop for safety reasons.
“And once I got the stream going, her family was on the stream, and they were asking me to continue because they wanted to know what was going on. So, very concerned about her,” he said.
Turner said he could see when Miller was arrested and placed into an SUV before being taken to jail.
Families describe fear and uncertainty
Up the block, Ruby Condensa and her family sheltered in place as the hours dragged on.
“It went on for so long. Um, at one point, I honestly did not know what was going to happen after we hit the 20-hour mark and I woke up, and I heard them,” Condensa said.
Her nearly two‑year‑old son Kai is used to playing outside, and she believes the uncertainty added to his anxiety.
“Kai, he’s a baby. He doesn’t know, but I think that obviously it was a lot just being inside. And I know my anxious energy might’ve been a little on him because it was a scary situation. Um, if it was that scary for me, I can’t even imagine what her and her family went through.”
Community gives victim space, offers support
Neighbors chose not to visit the victim’s home on Wednesday, saying they wanted to give her space after the traumatic event. But they made clear they are ready to help.
“It’s really sad, and I feel for her, and I hope that she can heal from that,” Condensa said. “And I know that, um, our neighborhood has really rallied around her, and if she needs anything. I know a lot of us would be there to help her in whatever way she needs.”
Texas
Florida truck driver charged with intoxication manslaughter in fatal West Texas crash
ABILENE, Texas — A Florida truck driver has been charged with intoxication manslaughter after a crash at a rural intersection left a South Texas man dead, authorities said.
Miguel Angel Casanova, 68, of Saint Cloud, Florida, suffered minor injuries in the crash and was wearing a seatbelt, according to investigators. After receiving treatment at Hendrick North Emergency Care, he was arrested on the charge.
RELATED| Abilene man charged with Intoxicated Manslaughter
Authorities identified the victim as Adam Lee Reyna, 26, of Mission, Texas. Reyna, who was driving a 2019 Dodge Ram pickup, died at the scene and was pronounced dead by Justice of the Peace Mike McAuliffe. His seatbelt use was not immediately known.
According to a preliminary investigation, Casanova was traveling westbound on County Road 54 and approached a stop sign at the intersection with State Highway 351. Reyna was traveling northbound on the highway toward the same intersection.
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Investigators said Casanova failed to yield at the stop sign, and the vehicles collided.
The impact caused Reyna’s pickup to catch fire, and it was destroyed, authorities said.
RELATED| Abilene man indicted for intoxication manslaughter
Further investigation determined Casanova was intoxicated due to an overdose of medication at the time of the crash.
The investigation remains ongoing.
Texas
Texas can require public schools to display Ten Commandments in classrooms, court rules
DALLAS — Texas can require the Ten Commandments to be displayed in public schools, a U.S. appeals court ruled Tuesday in a victory for conservatives who have long sought to incorporate more religion into classrooms.
The 9-8 decision by the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals delivered a boost to backers of similar laws in Arkansas and Louisiana. Opponents have argued that hanging the Ten Commandments in classrooms proselytizes to students and amounts to religious indoctrination by the government.
In a lengthy majority opinion, the conservative-leaning appeals court in New Orleans rejected those arguments in Texas, saying the requirement does not step on the rights of parents or students.
“No child is made to recite the Commandments, believe them, or affirm their divine origin,” the ruling says.
The American Civil Liberties Union and other groups that challenged the Texas law on behalf of parents said in a statement that they anticipate appealing the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.
“The First Amendment safeguards the separation of church and state, and the freedom of families to choose how, when and if to provide their children with religious instruction. This decision tramples those rights,” they said in the statement.
The mandate is one of several fronts in Texas that opponents have fought over religion in classrooms. In 2024, the state approved optional Bible-infused curriculum for elementary schools, and a proposal set for a vote in June would add Bible stories to required reading lists in Texas classrooms.
The decision over the Ten Commandments law reverses a lower federal court ruling that had blocked about a dozen Texas school districts — including some of the state’s largest — from putting up the posters. The Texas law signed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott took effect in September, marking the largest attempt in the nation to hang the Ten Commandments in public schools.
From the start, the law was met almost immediately by a mix of embrace and hesitation in Texas classrooms that educate the state’s 5.5 million public school students.
The mandate animated school board meetings, spun up guidance about what to say when students ask questions, and led to boxes of donated posters being dropped on the doorsteps of campuses statewide. Although the law only requires schools to hang the posters if donated, one suburban Dallas school district spent nearly $1,800 to print roughly 5,000 posters.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, called the ruling “a major victory for Texas and our moral values.”
“The Ten Commandments have had a profound impact on our nation, and it’s important that students learn from them every single day,” he said.
Tuesday’s ruling comes after the appeals court heard arguments in January in the Texas case and a similar case in Louisiana. In February, the court cleared the way for Louisiana to enforce its law requiring the display of the Ten Commandments in classrooms.
Republican Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill said the Texas ruling “adopted our entire legal defense” of the law in her state. In Alabama, Republican Gov. Kay Ivey also signed a similar law earlier this month.
“Our law clearly was always constitutional, and I am grateful that the Fifth Circuit has now definitively agreed with us,” Murrill said in a statement posted to social media.
Judge Stephen A. Higginson, in a dissenting opinion joined by four others on the court, wrote that the framers of the Constitution “intended disestablishment of religion, above all to prevent large religious sects from using political power to impose their religion on others.”
“Yet Texas, like Louisiana, seeks to do just that, legislating that specific, politically chosen scripture be installed in every public-school classroom,” Higginson wrote.
The law says schools must put donated posters “in a conspicuous place” and requires the writing to be a size and typeface that is visible from anywhere in a classroom to a person with “average vision.” The displays must also be 16 inches wide and 20 inches tall.
Texas’ law easily passed the GOP-controlled Legislature and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have backed posting the Ten Commandments in classrooms.
___
Associated Press writer Audrey McAvoy contributed to this report from Honolulu, Hawaii.
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