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Shock to ‘force’ RBA to cut interest rates further than expected: ‘More aggressive’

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Shock to ‘force’ RBA to cut interest rates further than expected: ‘More aggressive’
The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate further this year, with KPMG adding one more cut to its forecast. · Source: AAP

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could be pushed to take a “more aggressive” rate-cutting approach following the conflict in the Middle East and the potential oil price shock. Some analysts now expect the central bank could cut interest rates a further three times this year.

KPMG has estimated the conflict in the Middle East could shave between 0.15 and 0.20 per cent of the GDP from the Australian economy this year, should the world oil market react in a similar way to how it responded to the first Iraq War. It said an “oil shock” combined with the continuing threat of a global tariff fallout could “force” the RBA’s hand.

“The longer an oil price shock is sustained, the worse its impact is in terms of inflation outcomes, inflation expectations and short-term growth,” KPMG said.

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“This is because oil price shocks can be particularly damaging to an economy like Australia’s as the road transport sector — one of the heaviest users of oil in our economy — touches every single other sector (including itself) across the country.”

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Global oil prices slid 7.2 per cent on Monday following Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on a US airbase. The Brent crude price fell to around $US70 a barrel. This has eased fears of major supply disruptions, but markets remain cautious as tensions continue.

KPMG said it had revised down its RBA cash rate forecasts and now expects a further three rate cuts this year, one more than its original expectation at the start of 2025, bringing the cash rate down to 3.1 per cent by the end of the year.

It expects the RBA to “look through” any short-term inflationary impact of any oil shock and noted this would be combined with core inflation now looking well entrenched in the target band and overall weakness in the Australian economy.

If the RBA cuts interest rates three times, homeowners could see their repayments drop by $265 a month. That’s based on someone with an average $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining.

Markets have an 86 per cent expectation of an interest rate change at the next RBA meeting in July and are almost fully priced in for three more reductions by the end of the year.

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NAB is the only Big Four bank predicting an interest rate cut next month, with ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac expecting a cut in August.

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the RBA would be more focused on inflation than the oil price.

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Tech trade needs 2 things to remain 'in favor' this year

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Tech trade needs 2 things to remain 'in favor' this year
MJP Wealth Advisors chief investment officer Brian Vendig sits down with Morning Brief host Julie Hyman to discuss the tech trade’s (XLK) outlook for 2026. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief.
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Promising UK Penny Stocks To Watch In January 2026

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Promising UK Penny Stocks To Watch In January 2026
The UK market has recently faced challenges, with the FTSE 100 index experiencing declines due to weak trade data from China, highlighting global economic interdependencies. Despite these broader market pressures, investors may find intriguing opportunities in penny stocks—smaller or newer companies that can offer a mix of affordability and growth potential. While the term ‘penny stocks’ might seem outdated, their potential remains significant for those seeking financial strength and…
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Why Chime Financial Stock Was Music to Investor Ears in December | The Motley Fool

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Why Chime Financial Stock Was Music to Investor Ears in December | The Motley Fool

The company appears to be effectively serving its often-overlooked customer base.

The holiday month brought fintech Chime Financial (CHYM 3.13%) one of the best gifts a stock can receive — a substantial bump higher in price. Across December, Chime’s shares rose by more than 19%, lifted by a set of factors that included a recommendation upgrade from a prominent bank and a positive research note by an analyst who’s now tracking the company.

Good as gold

The bullish tone was set by that upgrade, which was made before market open on Dec. 1 by Goldman Sachs pundit Will Nance. According to his new evaluation, Chime stock is now a buy, up from Nance’s previous tag of neutral. The new price target is $27 per share.

Image source: Getty Images.

According to reports, the analyst’s move is based on the company’s new Chime Card, an innovative credit product that represents an evolution of the secured credit card (i.e., plastic that must be backed by a user’s actual funds).

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In Nance’s estimation, as a next-generation credit product, the Chime Card should earn more “take” (i.e., fees derived from use) and thus higher revenue and profitability for the company than many anticipate. The prognosticator wrote that “attach” rates — i.e., Chime customer uptake — could also be notably above current expectations.

On Dec. 11, a new Chime bull emerged. This is B. Riley analyst Hal Goetsch, who initiated coverage of the company’s stock with a buy recommendation. This was accompanied by a price target of $35 per share, which is well higher than even Nance’s very optimistic assessment.

Goetsch waxed bullish about Chime’s high growth potential, according to reports. He opined that the company is doing well servicing its target segment of customers traditionally shunned by established banks due to poor credit histories, among other perceived flaws. It has also cleverly partnered with lenders and other financial services providers to offer attractive products such as the Chime Card.

Chime Financial Stock Quote

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(-3.13%) $-0.87

Current Price

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$26.95

Executive shifts

Finally, Chime promoted no less than three of its executives to new positions. It announced in the middle of the month that former chief operating officer Mark Troughton had been named president, and Janelle Sallenave replaced him as chief operating officer (from chief experience officer). Vineet Mehra, meanwhile, became chief growth officer; previously, he was chief marketing officer.

All three appointments, announced in the middle of the month, were effective immediately.

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As the year came to a close, it was apparent that the company had executives who were eager to keep contributing to its success. That, combined with those bullish analyst notes and the somewhat under-the-radar success story that the Chime Card appears to be, makes this fintech’s stock well worth watching. This is one of the more innovative young businesses in the financial sector at present.

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