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Markets soar as Trump pauses most global tariffs, escalates trade war with China

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Markets soar as Trump pauses most global tariffs, escalates trade war with China

President Trump walked back plans on Wednesday for a global trade war that sparked fears of economic panic and recession, a dramatic reversal after a week of market turmoil that led to a historic surge of relief on Wall Street.

But the president further escalated his standoff with China over tariffs, raising duties on America’s third-largest trading partner to 125%. Trump’s tariff on foreign automobiles, set at 25%, remains in place.

Markets responded to Trump’s reversal with an exuberant surge, a turn of fortunes after news of the president’s policies last week wiped out $7 trillion in value over just three days of trading. Overnight, a U.S. bond market selloff added to concerns over a spiraling economic crisis.

Minutes after Trump changed course, the Dow Jones industrial average rose over 2,900 points. The Nasdaq was up 12% at the closing bell. And the Standard & Poor’s 500 increased over 9.5% — its largest gain since the 2008 financial crisis, but still down over 11% from its February highs.

The turnabout provided temporary relief from a policy that experts warned could upend the global economy, sending prices in the United States up across the board and risking global recession.

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Trump administration officials initially explained the policy switch as part of an organized plan: “This was his strategy all along,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Yet, within the hour, Trump himself acknowledged that dire market blowback from his announcement last week forced him to back down.

The initial policy plan had countries paying a universal tariff of 10% to import their goods to the United States. Other, select countries, which the president believed were treating the United States unfairly, were hit with higher rates.

“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line,” Trump told reporters at the White House, explaining his decision. “They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.

“I guess they say it was the biggest day in financial history,” Trump added. “I think the word would be flexible, you have to be flexible.”

The sequencing of Trump’s announcement prompted some concern among Democrats that Trump may have tipped off allies that a policy reversal was coming. On Wednesday morning, four hours before announcing the pause, Trump wrote on social media that it was a “GREAT TIME TO BUY.”

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“Trump is creating giant market fluctuations with his on-again, off-again tariffs. These constant gyrations in policy provide dangerous opportunities for insider trading,” said Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). “Who in the administration knew about Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop ahead of time? Did anyone buy or sell stocks, and profit at the public’s expense? I’m writing to the White House — the public has a right to know.”

Trump said he would pause his universal 10% tariff rate on most countries, which went into effect a week ago.

But other trading partners hit with higher rates on Wednesday — tariffs that were referred to as “reciprocal” by the White House, but that actually reflected a country’s trade deficit with the United States — will now have those rates lowered to 10%.

While Trump said that rate is “substantially lower” than previously planned rates, it is still nearly three times the average import tax that had been in place before his announcement last week.

China, meanwhile, will be hit by yet another increase in duties, with imports from Beijing now facing a 125% tariff rate, after China matched Trump’s last two rate hikes over the past week.

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“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, leading markets to soar minutes later.

“Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called … to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States,” Trump continued, “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The president’s decision to reverse course drew widespread praise from his political allies, who credited him with executing on the “art of the deal” over the past week.

Trump’s approach, wrote Bill Ackman, a billionaire hedge fund manager and supporter of the president, is that “we now understand who are our preferred trading partners, and who the problems are. China has shown themselves to be a bad actor.”

Bessent initially told reporters at the White House that Trump’s decision to issue a pause was the result of most countries around the world refraining from issuing retaliatory measures, and instead approaching the administration with offers to negotiate.

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“President Trump created maximum negotiating leverage for himself,” Bessent said. “The ones that we have lowered went into effect a week ago, and we have just been overwhelmed — overwhelmed — by the responses from, mostly, our allies, who want to come and negotiate in good faith.”

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, pushed back against questions from the media over the president backing down in the face of market pressures, as well as assessments from the country’s major banking institutions, such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, that his new trade policy would push the country into recession.

“Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal,” Leavitt said. “You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here.”

The White House said Trump was providing relief to trading partners that declined to retaliate to his initial tariff increase, and was escalating with China because it took retaliatory steps.

But Trump found out that the European Union, too, announced plans to retaliate with new levies only on Wednesday morning, when questioned by a reporter in the Oval Office that afternoon.

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Howard Lutnick, the Commerce secretary, told Trump in front of reporters that he did not believe Europe’s new actions would go into effect.

“Oh, that’s bad timing for them. That’s bad timing,” Trump said.

“They didn’t put them in,” Lutnick said. “No, they threatened. But they picked a later date, which, our expectation is it’s going to be later still.”

“Oh, OK. Because I’m glad that they held back,” Trump responded.

Trump and Leavitt had denied for days that Trump would consider any pause on the new trade policy, even denying that the specific pause announced Wednesday — a 90-day pause on global tariffs, with China excluded — was on the table just two days ago.

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That rumor led to a short-lived market rally on Monday before the White House referred to such plans as “fake news,” plunging stocks once more.

“We are not looking at that,” Trump told reporters at the time, asked about the prospects of a 90-day pause.

By Wednesday, Trump said of the pause, “it’s something very positive for the world.”

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Indian truckers sue California’s DMV for revoking their licenses

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Indian truckers sue California’s DMV for revoking their licenses

Immigrant truck drivers have sued the California Department of Motor Vehicles for terminating the commercial driver’s licenses of thousands of drivers, alleging that the decision violated their rights and threatened their livelihood.

California’s DMV gave a 60-day cancellation notice to 17,000 drivers on Nov. 6 after a federal audit found the licenses issued to immigrant drivers were set to expire after the time they were legally allowed to remain in the U.S.

In the event of such clerical errors by the DMV, the suit alleges, California law requires the DMV to change the expiration of its own accord or to allow applicants to reapply for a corrected license.

“The state of California must help these 20,000 drivers because, at the end of the day, the clerical errors threatening their livelihoods are of the CA-DMV’s own making,” said Munmeeth Kaur, legal director of the Sikh Coalition, a group fighting for the civil rights of Sikhs.

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The Sikh Coalition and Asian Law Caucus filed the class-action lawsuit on behalf of five commercial driver’s license holders, challenging the DMV’s decision to revoke licenses.

Since November, the number of cancellation notifications has grown to more than 20,000.

“If the court does not issue a stay, we will see a devastating wave of unemployment that harms individual families, as well as the destabilization of supply chains on which we all rely,” said Kaur.

The Sikh Coalition also noted that the action was taken under pressure from the federal government. It said the California DMV has failed to provide recourse, and informed applicants that it’s not issuing or renewing non-resident commercial driver’s licenses.

Punjabi Sikh truckers have emerged as a pillar of the American trucking industry. For years, many have sought asylum in the U.S. and entered the transportation industry.

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There are around 750,000 Punjabi Sikhs in the United States. Of those, about 150,000 work in the trucking industry, with the majority based on the West Coast.

The issue of immigrant truckers became a political flash point earlier this year, when a Punjabi Sikh driver took an illegal U-turn at a turnpike that caused a crash in Florida that killed three people. The Trump administration swung into action and found seven states, including California, Washington and Texas, that had lax licensing rules.

The crackdown has caused a wave of racism and racial profiling of Sikh truckers, many of whom sport turbans and beards as symbols of their faith, which is neither Hindu nor Muslim.

Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy singled out California for issuing commercial driver’s licenses to what his department says are unqualified immigrant truckers that put lives on the road in danger. Many truckers quit the industry after the introduction of enhanced English proficiency tests, where highway inspectors check for language proficiency and highway traffic sign competency.

Policy changes regarding noncitizen commercial licenses and English-language proficiency enforcement could remove more than 400,000 commercial drivers from the market over the next three years, according to J.B. Hunt, one of the largest trucking companies.

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Commentary: The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come

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Commentary: The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come

The federal government’s monthly releases of economic statistics — especially the inflation rate and growth as tracked by gross domestic product — have long occasioned partisan preening (or denunciation) and for a general public stock-taking of the health of the economy.

Not this month. This time, they’re the occasion for doubt and confusion.

On Dec. 18, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation had fallen to an annual rate of 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September and well below the 3.1% consensus of economists. And on Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product had shot up by a surprising 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 ended Sept. 30.

The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives.

— Zachary Karabell

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Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration and its Republican acolytes seized on the figures to boast about Trump’s economic policies. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett proclaimed the inflation figure to be “an absolute blockbuster report.” He described the GDP figure as “a great Christmas present for the American people.”

“America is winning again,” crowed House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after the GDP report. He called it “the direct result of congressional Republicans and President Trump delivering policies that drive growth and expand opportunity for American families and workers.”

Um, not so fast.

The economists whose jobs involve scrutinizing those statistics to glean what they really mean don’t view them as unalloyed support for Trumponomics. Quite the contrary. Many see them as artifacts of the long government shutdown, which halted the collection of data that go into those reports, severely distorting the results. Furthermore, they expect the flaws in those reports to persist well into 2026, undermining their usefulness as true economic indicators.

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“You’ve got to take it with a grain of salt,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, of the inflation report. “It’s confusing and it doesn’t quite square with prices that we’ve observed.”

A close examination of the GDP figures also underscores the narrow basis driving economic growth in recent months — it’s essentially the product of robust spending by wealthy consumers and massive corporate investments in AI technology. For middle- and lower-income Americans, the economic present and future don’t look anywhere as sunny as the numbers would suggest.

“The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives,” says financial analyst and economic commentator Zachary Karabell, whose 2014 book “The Leading Indicators” injected some perspective on how we interpret economic statistics and explained why our faith in them is often misplaced.

Indeed, consumer confidence has been sinking for months, according to the Conference Board. That points to an enduring question about the U.S. economy: Whose economy is it?

More than ever, it belongs to the rich, producing a “K-shaped” economy, which has been playing out in shopping patterns this holiday season, as my colleague Caroline Petrow-Cohen recently wrote.

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According to Bank of America analysts, since this spring, spending by the highest-earning third of Americans has been soaring, while that of middle- and lower-income households has stagnated. In part that’s because the stock market has remained vibrant.

Since the top 20% of households as measured by income own about 87% of directly-held equities, stock market gains “tend to disproportionately benefit the higher-income cohort,” the BofA analysts noted. By contrast, “almost 30% of lower-income households appear to be living ‘paycheck to paycheck.’”

The highest-earning 10% of households now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, according to Moody’s Analytics. That’s the highest level since the data began to be collected in the 1980s, when the rich accounted for only about one-third of spending.

Job growth may already have turned negative, even if the published employment figures don’t yet show it, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged during a Dec. 10 news conference following the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.

Non-farm payroll gains have averaged about 40,000 a month since April, Powell observed. “We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers by about 60,000,” he said. “So that would be negative 20,000 per month.”

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The divergence between the gross economic statistics and the lived experience of Americans is nothing new. It was remarked on by Robert F. Kennedy Sr. in a speech in March 1968, less than three months before his nascent presidential campaign was ended by an assassin’s bullet.

“Gross national product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage,” he observed. “It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. … Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. … It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.”

That brings us to the specific flaws in the latest statistics.

The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, was the most important cause of gaps in the collected data for the consumer price index calculation. As Swonk noted in a social media post, cutbacks at the BLS had already reduced the staff assigned to sampling prices by 25%. That prompted the agency to substitute “imputed” numbers for hard data.

“Those cases can show up as zeros in the percent change of the release,” Swonk wrote — obviously lowering the bottom-line figure. A sampling scheduled for mid-October had to be canceled, so figures dating from August were used instead — concealing any price increases in subsequent months.

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A major problem concerns housing costs, which account for about one-third of the data inputs for the CPI. Because the BLS was unable to collect rental data for October, it implied that the monthly change in rents was 0% in October — further skewing the reported CPI lower. Experts say it will take at least six months to use newly collected data to provide a reliable estimate of housing inflation.

The delay in sampling, Swonk adds, means that some seasonal price phenomena were missed. She points specifically to airfares — the originally scheduled sampling would have incorporated a pre-Thanksgiving run-up in fares, but by the time the data were collected fares had returned to a non-holiday level.

Inflation data also are incorporated into GDP estimates — the lower the inflation rate, Swonk notes, the better the GDP looks. An artificially reduced inflation rate will translate into higher reported GDP growth.

All this might have a limited economic impact — corporations, banks and academic economists generally have sources other than the government to reach their conclusions — if not for the partisan political exploitation of the numbers.

As Karabell reported in his 2014 book, Simon Kuznets, the government statistician who helped to codify the collection of government figures in the 1930s, was concerned about how politics would give the statistics a misleading social significance.

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“These numbers have turned into absolute markets of the human condition,” Karabell wrote, “when they are simply statistical descriptions of specific systems.”

Economists have warned that some economic factors haven’t yet fully played out. That includes Trump’s tariffs, which in their execution have been lower than they appeared on the surface, and higher healthcare premiums, which have been forecast or announced but won’t actually become effective until 2026.

If the job market continues to weaken, that will show up more vividly in 2026. The interplay between “a surging economy and a soft labor market,” argues Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the business consulting firm RSM, “is likely to be the major economic narrative next year.”

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California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud

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California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud

Four years ago, California startup Theta Labs’ cryptocurrency was soaring, and its future appeared bright when it landed a partnership with pop star Katy Perry.

The Bay Area company had built a marketplace for digital collectibles known as nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, and had teamed up with Perry to launch NFTs tied to her Las Vegas concert residency. Its THETA token jumped by more than 500% in early 2021, reaching a peak of more than $15, making it one of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrencies. Later in the year, the spotlight shone on the company when it announced the Perry partnership.

“I can’t wait to dive in with the Theta team on all the exciting and memorable creative pieces, so my fans can own a special moment of my residency,” Perry said in a June 2021 news release.

Today, like many cryptocurrencies, THETA is 95% off its 2021 peak. It took a hit this week after former executives accused it of manipulating markets to dupe consumers into buying its products. On Tuesday, it was trading at less than 30 cents.

Two former executives from Theta Labs sued the startup, alleging in separate lawsuits that the company and its chief executive, Mitch Liu, engaged in fraud and manipulated the cryptocurrency market for his benefit. Liu retaliated against them after the employees refused to engage in deceptive business practices and raised concerns, the lawsuits say.

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Some of the alleged misconduct involved placing fake bids on Perry’s NFTs, engaging in token “pump and dump” schemes and using celebrity endorsements and “misleading” partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google to deceive the public, according to the December lawsuits filed in Los Angeles Superior Court.

Perry is not accused of any wrongdoing in the suit, and Theta denies the charges.

The lawsuits against Theta Labs are the latest controversy to rattle an industry beset by scandals.

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed, and its founder, Samuel Bankman-Fried, was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024 after being found guilty of multiple fraud charges. Binance founder and former Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao also got prison time after he pleaded guilty to violating money laundering laws, but President Trump pardoned him this year.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission previously charged celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, Lindsay Lohan, Jake Paul and Ne-Yo for promoting crypto without disclosing they were paid to do so.

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Theta Labs created a network that rewarded people with cryptocurrency for contributing spare bandwidth and computing power to enhance video streaming and lower content delivery costs. The company describes Theta Network as a “blockchain-powered decentralized cloud for AI, media and entertainment.” The network has two tokens: THETA, used to secure the network, and TFUEL, used to pay users for services and power operations.

The whistleblowers suing Theta Labs are Jerry Kowal, its former head of content, and Andrea Berry, previously the company’s head of business development.

“Liu used Theta Labs as his personal trading vehicle, perpetrating fraud, self-dealing, and market manipulation,” said Mark Mermelstein, Kowal’s attorney, in a statement. “His calculated ‘pump-and-dump’ schemes repeatedly wiped out employee and investor value. This suit is about demanding accountability and proving no one is above the law.”

Theta, Liu and its parent company, Sliver VR Technologies, deny the allegations and “intend to prove with evidence the fallacy of the stories being told in the lawsuits,” according to Kronenberger Rosenfeld, the law firm representing the defendants. The lawsuits are an attempt to paint the company in a negative light in hopes of securing a settlement, a lawyer for the firm said.

Kowal has sued his former employers before. In 2014, he accused Netflix of spreading false claims that he stole confidential information and Amazon of wrongful termination.

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The latest lawsuits allege that Liu profited from buying and selling THETA tokens using insider knowledge about partnerships with celebrities, studios and others in the entertainment industry.

“Liu’s true motive in pursuing such partnerships was not to develop a sustainable content business but to generate publicity that could be used to artificially inflate token prices for Liu’s personal gain,” Kowal’s lawsuit says.

Kowal worked for Theta from 2020 to 2025.

In 2020, Liu traded and sold tokens knowing that the company would close a content licensing deal with MGM Studios, according to the lawsuit. After the deal’s announcement, THETA token’s market capitalization increased by more than $50 million in just 24 hours, the lawsuit says.

When NFTs started to take off in 2021, Kowal closed deals with high-profile partners such as Perry, Fremantle Media and Resorts World Las Vegas for the startup’s NFT marketplace.

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As part of the deal with Perry, the singer received $8.5 million and additional warrants for the right to license her image and likeness for the NFTs.

To inflate the price and demand for these digital collectibles, Liu allegedly made bids on NFTs and directed employees to do the same. This led to people overpaying for the Perry NFTs.

Representatives for Perry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Multiple examples of alleged manipulation are outlined in the lawsuits. In one instance from 2022, the startup launched a new token called TDROP that employees also received as part of a bonus.

Liu gained control of 43% of the supply of the cryptocurrency, according to Kowal’s lawsuit. When the TDROP token reached a high, he then sold the token, and its price collapsed by more than 90% within months.

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Berry’s lawsuit also alleges that Theta Labs announced “misleading” or fake partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google and entities including NASA to pump up the value of the THETA token. Theta paid for Google Cloud products but claimed it was a partner when it was a Google customer, according to the lawsuit.

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