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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

As underdog hunters, we have been excited to watch college football’s championship morph into a playoff system, because with seeds come officially designated Davids and Goliaths, and with brackets come chances for meaningful upsets.

Well, that was our theory, anyway. The way this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has panned out, Boise State and Arizona State — entertaining squads who were conference champions but are by no stretch statistically dominant teams — grabbed the No. 3 and 4 seeds and the byes that go with them. And the fifth through 12th playoff contestants are now lined up pretty accurately. In each of this weekend’s first-round matchups, sportsbooks are favoring the home teams by more than a touchdown, and we can understand why.

But we can still help you hunt for value in the CFP’s opening round.

From NCAA basketball to the Olympics to the NFL, we have found that playoff underdogs tend to have three traits in common: They are underrated, they play high-risk/high-reward styles and they’ve suffered from bad luck.

So, this is how we studied the first round of the CFP: We looked at the power ratings of every team according to four systems, all of which essentially adjust the components of wins and losses (such as scoring) for strength of schedule: ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System and Team Rankings’ Predictive Ratings. We calculated the gaps between each set of opponents and then applied our bracket-breaking criteria. These are the results, with games listed in order of their upset chances.

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No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Upset chance: 33.4 percent

While betting lines have made SMU a +260 underdog in this contest, implying a 27.8 percent chance of a win, we think the Mustangs have a one-in-three chance (33.4 percent) of pulling off an upset.

For one, we’ve put together a Variability Index that measures how widely a team’s performance, adjusted for opponents, swings from week to week. The Mustangs rank 105th in the FBS this year, meaning they have been highly inconsistent. That’s good for an underdog: the better you are at your best, the greater your chances of beating a superior foe (and in a win-or-go-home scenario, nobody really cares how bad you are at your worst).

It’s doubly good in this case because the main reason SMU’s strength has changed considerably from game to game is that the Mustangs kept improving. Predicted to finish seventh in their first season in the ACC, they instead clobbered their conference opponents by increasing margins from the beginning of October through the end of November.

Led by Kevin Jennings, a quarterback who’s both efficient (66 percent completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt) and mobile (29.2 rushing yards per game), SMU’s up-tempo offense has racked up 501 points this season, sixth-most in the country. The Mustangs’ defense is more uneven. Their outstanding front four smothers the run and gets to opposing QBs: SMU allows just 2.7 yards per rush and has totaled 40 sacks; both of those figures are third-best in the FBS. But while the Mustangs have three safeties whose Pro Football Focus coverage grades rank among the top 30 in the country, SMU has given up a whopping 3,025 passing yards (ranking 111th). Buy the Mustangs, and you’re betting their pass rush will boom before their zone defense goes bust — and so far, that’s been a good wager.

SMU is also better than the result of its last game, a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A sack, fumble return and penalty on a punt landed the Mustangs down by 14 before the game was five minutes old. Then they clawed all the way back, only for Clemson to beat them, 34-31, on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Chances are the Mustangs won’t dig themselves into that deep a hole again — another reason their odds against Abdul Carter & Co. are better than they look.

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No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Upset chance: 27.9 percent

Subjectively, the Hoosiers, who are likely the best team in the 125-year history of Indiana football, make a heck of an underdog. And we’ve sung the praises of their coach, their quarterbacks and their receivers. But they’re +230 at BetMGM, and we see that as a bit generous: It implies upset chances of 30.3 percent vs. odds we calculate at 27.9 percent.

Statistically, we have to ask how much air needs to be let out of the Hoosiers’ tires because of their mediocre schedule. And while we can’t precisely quantify the answer yet, it’s some version of a lot.” They’ve had a single game against a top-25 opponent all season — and Ohio State outgained Indiana by more than two-to-one, with Kurtis Rourke passing for just 68 yards en route to a 38-15 thrashing.

The Hoosiers aren’t simply an offensive juggernaut: They’ve allowed only 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while surrendering just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up a mere 13.6 points per game (ranking third), stifling opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.

Bettors have taken a long time to appreciate Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been slightly lucky at converting points to wins, and Notre Dame has been slightly unlucky (as in two-points-away-from-being-undefeated unlucky).

One signal does favor the Hoosiers: Through December 16, 56 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money wagered on this game have been on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can’t find much to trump the statistical evidence that there’s a difference of a bit more than a touchdown between these teams.

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No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Upset chance: 25 percent

Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much larger gap in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. That’s particularly true in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which place the Buckeyes as the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still only gives the Vols a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.

However, there are reasons to believe the metrics are undervaluing Tennessee. That’s mostly due to the Vols’ defense. According to Sharp Football’s “Defensive Beta_Rank” advanced stats, Tennessee has the country’s eighth-best defense. The Vols only allowed two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came from a kickoff return on the opening play). They held Alabama to 17 points in a victory in October, and the Crimson Tide happen to rank ninth in Sharp’s offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.

It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s offense has sputtered at times against strong defenses. The Buckeyes only scored 20 points against Penn State’s 14th-ranked unit and infamously put up only 10 points against Michigan’s 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored 30-plus against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.

But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus Saturday night. Ohio State’s defense is even better than Tennessee’s (No. 2 in Sharp’s ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round game, which means there’s more of a chance for a pesky underdog to hang around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn’t ultimately lead to a Tennessee outright win, that game script could favor the Vols +7.5, as well as the under.

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Upset chance: 22.8 percent

You know, those folks in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, which means its implied odds to win are 23.5 percent. That aligns with the chance our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).

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Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor Texas’ profile as a favorite does much to shift those odds. Clemson ranks in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven’t really underperformed or shown a massive ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only are the Longhorns extremely consistent (seventh in the country in lowest variability), but they’ve also been unfortunate (82nd in luck). So they may be even better than their record indicates.

But instead of ending on some misbegotten crack about how Syracuse would make a more entertaining ACC entrant in the CFP than Clemson, let’s use this game to consider a truly amazing probability. If Texas gets by Clemson, we estimate there’s about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would then defeat Arizona State. Which means the odds that Texas will make the semifinal of the Playoff are about two in three.

Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance to beat Ohio State?

The biggest lesson from how the CFP matchups are shaking out is that Texas’ No. 5 slot is the sweetest spot in the field. Even with the Ducks holding a bye in their beaks, at this moment, you’d rather be Texas than Oregon.

(Illustration by Will Tullos; photo of Kevin Jennings: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; photo of Kurtis Rourke: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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Jazz Chisholm explains why he still won’t wear a cup after fouling a pitch into his own groin

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Jazz Chisholm explains why he still won’t wear a cup after fouling a pitch into his own groin

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Men around the country are still wincing from the sight of New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. fouling a pitch straight into his own groin.

It was bad enough that Chisholm had to leave the game, and it left many wondering why he wasn’t wearing a cup to protect himself.

Well, now we have an answer.

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New York Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. took a brutal shot to the groin on Thursday night. (Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images)

Yankees beat writer Gary Philips shared some quotes from Chisholm explaining why he wasn’t a cup guy before taking a foul ball to the cojones, and why he isn’t going to be a cup guy moving forward.

WEEKS AFTER BULLFIGHTER SUFFERED PERFORATED RECTUM, ANOTHER WAS GORED IN GROIN AND REQUIRED EMERGENCY SURGERY

Chisholm said that the pain level was a “million,” and that, “If you ever got hit in the testicles, you would know.”

Most males reading this just nodded at that statement.

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But Chisholm revealed that despite cups being mandatory in the minor leagues, he still skipped them and will continue to because he trusts his own defensive abilities.

“I’ve never worn a cup,” he said. “I’ve never been hit in the balls. That was just unlucky.”

Now, there are times when I wonder why men don’t wear cups all the time just for some peace of mind (I feel that way about helmets too). You wouldn’t regret not wearing a cup until the moment you’re at a cookout and a rogue volleyball puts you in shambles.

But I also like that Chisholm trusts himself to react and protect the boys. I’ve always said that a fairly significant part of a man’s life is devoted to protecting his lower anatomy.

You’re ever vigilant, trying to steer clear of anything that could leave you doubled over on the ground, and spouting off every expletive you know and several others you didn’t realize you knew.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr. says he’ll rely on his defensive abilities instead of wearing a cup moving forward. (David Richard-Imagn Images)

Waist-high branches, table corners, projectiles, bicycle seats, even a pet jumping in your lap when you’re not ready.

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Chisholm is self-aware enough to know where his self-preservation reflexes stand, and I respect that.

But if he takes another foul ball to the lower area of his body, he might want to start rethinking that stance on cups.

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Summer football notebook: Running back AJ McBean transfers to Gardena Serra

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Summer football notebook: Running back AJ McBean transfers to Gardena Serra

There have been dozens of football transfers in Southern California during the offseason, but the one transfer who could make the greatest impact is running back AJ McBean, who announced he was leaving Mira Costa High for Gardena Serra.

McBean, who ran 10.55 seconds in the 100 meters this spring thanks to Mira Costa’s track program and his commitment to getting faster, joins a Serra offense that returns all five starters on the offensive line. He’s got the speed and strength to help the Cavaliers make up for not reaching the Southern Section playoffs last season out of the extremely competitive Mission League.

He’s been a long-time resident of Hermosa Beach, so what would motivate him to leave Mira Costa after recently making a commitment to Stanford? He apparently wants to prepare for college by being used in a more versatile role catching passes out of the backfield to show off his many skills. At least that’s what his family told coach Scott Altenberg. Mira Costa was changing its offense to better feature him, so it’s a tough loss for the Mustangs.

McBean will have to move to become eligible immediately.

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Hope at Whittier

Former Garfield coach Lorenzo Hernandez, in his first season at Whittier, has already discovered a talent he can’t wait to develop. Offensive and defensive lineman Joseph Medina from the class of 2028 has made quite a first impression on Hernandez.

Medina didn’t play last season, “and in three months that we have been here, he is off the charts,” Hernandez said.

Hernandez calls him “a great technician and amazing leader.”

Agoura QB depth

Never has coach Dustin Croick of Agoura had more quality depth at quarterback than what he will have this season thanks to two newcomers.

Junior Kris Carranza has transferred from Sierra Canyon to Agoura and is a top candidate to start. The Chargers are also adding incoming freshman quarterback Emerson Andrews, whose father, David, played tight end at Ohio State and was a member of the 2002 national championship team. He is director of athletic performance for UCLA’s men’s basketball program. If anyone has a strength and conditioning question, submit it to Emerson, who knows someone.

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Commitments rolling in

With college recruiters headed on vacation, lots of players decided to make commitments to make sure they have a “certain” destination. There’s also a new trend of players announcing on social media posts that they are “shutting down” their recruitment, which is supposed to mean their decision is final. Then how come others keep recruiting them? Because it’s never final in this era of NIL.

Quarterback Chris Fields, the City Section player of the year from Carson, committed to Georgetown. Offensive lineman Micah Butler from Hamilton committed to Sacramento State. Kicker Gabriel Goroyan of Westlake committed to Stanford. Defensive back Wesley Ace from Gardena Serra committed to San Jose State.

Man among boys

USC recruiters deserve praise for identifying the best in Southern California and pursuing them with great intensity. There’s no doubt that Damien safety Gavin Williams, a USC commit, will be the standard for excellence this coming season. He’s fast and strong and players who don’t adjust to his physical skills are in for a surprise.

Damien won the Chaminade seven-on-seven passing tournament on Saturday, beating Crespi in the final. On the first play, Williams caught a long touchdown pass, sprinting well past the defender who had no idea how fast he runs.

First-year coaches galore

It’s going to be fun tracking the progress of first-year football coaches this season because there are so many at well-known programs. The question of who will have the best record should be debated all summer.

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Iggy Porchia became the latest new hire, replacing his mentor, the late Angelo Gasca, at Venice.

There should be a competition on which new private coach will have the best record and which new public school coach will have the best record. There’s so many candidates with new coaches at JSerra, Orange Lutheran, Servite, Los Alamitos, St. Francis, St. Bernard, Bishop Montgomery, Oaks Christian, Whittier Christian, Bishop Alemany, Muir, Pasadena, Long Beach Poly, Arroyo, North Hollywood, Sun Valley Poly and on it goes.

Transfer issues coming

It appears the Southern Section will be busy again this fall after last year’s eligibility scandal when it declared 19 transfer students ineligible at Bishop Montgomery, resulting in the varsity season being ended after one game and forcing the Archdiocese of Los Angeles to clean up what looked like a preventable mess.

This time it could be public schools facing scrutiny. The same rumors that started last summer about schools loading up on transfers are circulating again this summer. Principals who don’t act after multiple transfers seemingly out of nowhere start showing up to play football only have themselves to blame.

And schools that delay submitting transfer paperwork until the last minute thinking investigators will be too busy to spot an error don’t understand the process.

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City Section commissioner Vicky Lagos has a policy that she immediately schedules a meeting with the administration, athletic director, coach and parents when one school receives multiple transfers to review paperwork. The Southern Section deployed AI last fall to help it catch parents submitting false information.

So prepare for more exciting times. It’s like a cat-and-mouse game. And don’t forget about the anonymous emails identifying parents not living at the official address they put on their transfer paperwork.

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Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin

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Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin

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I’m glad we didn’t take the run line yesterday in the baseball game. We had the under eight for the game between the White Sox and Tigers, and it ended 4-3. The Tigers did pull off the win, but as I mentioned, it wasn’t justified that Detroit should be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today, we shift to the Chicago National League team as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.

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The Toronto Blue Jays are a team I’ve written about probably more than most squads in the league. That’s not a complaint or anything, it just happens that I see a lot of value in their games. Most of that is because when they are favorites, they aren’t big favorites given their 37-39 record and rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When they are dogs, they are usually pretty small pups, offering little value, but that means the opposing favorite isn’t too high of a price.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Jays were blitzed by the Cubs yesterday, and they will need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted hurler is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He had a decent year with the Rangers, but seems to be struggling again, as he did in his time with the Nationals. Corbin is a little more reliable on the road, given that he has pitched 10 more innings and has allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much lately, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, batting .316 against him.

The Cubs are one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season. Perhaps that is me just saying that as a fan of the team, but they’ve had two 10-game winning streaks, and also a losing streak of 10 games. Since May 9, the team has gone 13-24. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff — they have only two healthy starters from the beginning of the year. But, most of this needs to be placed on the hitting of the club. Nico Hoerner is batting .238, Ian Happ is at .228, and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.

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Toronto Blue Jays’ Ernie Clement hits a three-run home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)

Still, the Cubs broke out the bats yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some pitching, maybe they will be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who has not been very good this month. He has made three starts, allowed 19 hits, and 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings pitched. He has, however, been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six appearances). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.

There is a clear player prop to play in this one. However, the bad news is that he is not on the list of options, so you might need to request or find him in a different book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five homers. I’d play him at 2+ total bases and at one homer as long as you can get +200 or better for the bases, and +700 for the homer prop.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)

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If you can’t find it, or they never post it (but I have to imagine they will give options once he is added to the lineup, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have a play. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the fresher bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024 

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