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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

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Ranking upset chances for College Football Playoff underdogs: Will any road team win?

As underdog hunters, we have been excited to watch college football’s championship morph into a playoff system, because with seeds come officially designated Davids and Goliaths, and with brackets come chances for meaningful upsets.

Well, that was our theory, anyway. The way this inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has panned out, Boise State and Arizona State — entertaining squads who were conference champions but are by no stretch statistically dominant teams — grabbed the No. 3 and 4 seeds and the byes that go with them. And the fifth through 12th playoff contestants are now lined up pretty accurately. In each of this weekend’s first-round matchups, sportsbooks are favoring the home teams by more than a touchdown, and we can understand why.

But we can still help you hunt for value in the CFP’s opening round.

From NCAA basketball to the Olympics to the NFL, we have found that playoff underdogs tend to have three traits in common: They are underrated, they play high-risk/high-reward styles and they’ve suffered from bad luck.

So, this is how we studied the first round of the CFP: We looked at the power ratings of every team according to four systems, all of which essentially adjust the components of wins and losses (such as scoring) for strength of schedule: ESPN’s SP+ rankings, the Massey Ratings, the Simple Rating System and Team Rankings’ Predictive Ratings. We calculated the gaps between each set of opponents and then applied our bracket-breaking criteria. These are the results, with games listed in order of their upset chances.

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No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State

Upset chance: 33.4 percent

While betting lines have made SMU a +260 underdog in this contest, implying a 27.8 percent chance of a win, we think the Mustangs have a one-in-three chance (33.4 percent) of pulling off an upset.

For one, we’ve put together a Variability Index that measures how widely a team’s performance, adjusted for opponents, swings from week to week. The Mustangs rank 105th in the FBS this year, meaning they have been highly inconsistent. That’s good for an underdog: the better you are at your best, the greater your chances of beating a superior foe (and in a win-or-go-home scenario, nobody really cares how bad you are at your worst).

It’s doubly good in this case because the main reason SMU’s strength has changed considerably from game to game is that the Mustangs kept improving. Predicted to finish seventh in their first season in the ACC, they instead clobbered their conference opponents by increasing margins from the beginning of October through the end of November.

Led by Kevin Jennings, a quarterback who’s both efficient (66 percent completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt) and mobile (29.2 rushing yards per game), SMU’s up-tempo offense has racked up 501 points this season, sixth-most in the country. The Mustangs’ defense is more uneven. Their outstanding front four smothers the run and gets to opposing QBs: SMU allows just 2.7 yards per rush and has totaled 40 sacks; both of those figures are third-best in the FBS. But while the Mustangs have three safeties whose Pro Football Focus coverage grades rank among the top 30 in the country, SMU has given up a whopping 3,025 passing yards (ranking 111th). Buy the Mustangs, and you’re betting their pass rush will boom before their zone defense goes bust — and so far, that’s been a good wager.

SMU is also better than the result of its last game, a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A sack, fumble return and penalty on a punt landed the Mustangs down by 14 before the game was five minutes old. Then they clawed all the way back, only for Clemson to beat them, 34-31, on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Chances are the Mustangs won’t dig themselves into that deep a hole again — another reason their odds against Abdul Carter & Co. are better than they look.

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No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame

Upset chance: 27.9 percent

Subjectively, the Hoosiers, who are likely the best team in the 125-year history of Indiana football, make a heck of an underdog. And we’ve sung the praises of their coach, their quarterbacks and their receivers. But they’re +230 at BetMGM, and we see that as a bit generous: It implies upset chances of 30.3 percent vs. odds we calculate at 27.9 percent.

Statistically, we have to ask how much air needs to be let out of the Hoosiers’ tires because of their mediocre schedule. And while we can’t precisely quantify the answer yet, it’s some version of a lot.” They’ve had a single game against a top-25 opponent all season — and Ohio State outgained Indiana by more than two-to-one, with Kurtis Rourke passing for just 68 yards en route to a 38-15 thrashing.

The Hoosiers aren’t simply an offensive juggernaut: They’ve allowed only 14.7 points per game (sixth in the FBS) while surrendering just 5.7 yards per passing attempt and a total of 10 passing touchdowns. But Notre Dame has given up a mere 13.6 points per game (ranking third), stifling opponents to 5.6 yards per attempt and nine passing TDs.

Bettors have taken a long time to appreciate Indiana, which has gone 9-3 against the spread this year, similar to the Fighting Irish, who are 9-2-1 ATS. The Hoosiers have been slightly lucky at converting points to wins, and Notre Dame has been slightly unlucky (as in two-points-away-from-being-undefeated unlucky).

One signal does favor the Hoosiers: Through December 16, 56 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the money wagered on this game have been on Indiana, according to the Action Network. But we can’t find much to trump the statistical evidence that there’s a difference of a bit more than a touchdown between these teams.

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No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

Upset chance: 25 percent

Advanced ranking systems suggest there is a much larger gap in this game than a one-seed difference would imply. That’s particularly true in the Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings, which place the Buckeyes as the best of the eight teams playing first-round games and the Volunteers the worst. The three other systems are more generous to Tennessee, but our synergistic model still only gives the Vols a 25 percent chance of winning, compared to an implied 29.4 percent offered by the +240 moneyline at BetMGM.

However, there are reasons to believe the metrics are undervaluing Tennessee. That’s mostly due to the Vols’ defense. According to Sharp Football’s “Defensive Beta_Rank” advanced stats, Tennessee has the country’s eighth-best defense. The Vols only allowed two teams to score more than 19 points all season: Georgia (31) and Vanderbilt (23, seven of which came from a kickoff return on the opening play). They held Alabama to 17 points in a victory in October, and the Crimson Tide happen to rank ninth in Sharp’s offensive ratings, one spot ahead of Ohio State.

It’s also worth noting that Ohio State’s offense has sputtered at times against strong defenses. The Buckeyes only scored 20 points against Penn State’s 14th-ranked unit and infamously put up only 10 points against Michigan’s 19th-ranked defense. Of course, Ohio State scored 30-plus against top-25 defenses from Indiana (seventh), Oregon (17th) and Iowa (22nd). So the Buckeyes certainly have explosive potential.

But this game has all the ingredients for a tight, physical, conservative battle. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s in Columbus Saturday night. Ohio State’s defense is even better than Tennessee’s (No. 2 in Sharp’s ratings). This matchup has the lowest total (46.5) of any first-round game, which means there’s more of a chance for a pesky underdog to hang around. Tennessee has been consistent (30th in our variability rankings) and right in the middle of the pack in luck ratings, so even if that doesn’t ultimately lead to a Tennessee outright win, that game script could favor the Vols +7.5, as well as the under.

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas

Upset chance: 22.8 percent

You know, those folks in Vegas might have a pretty good idea of what they’re doing. Clemson is +325 on the moneyline, which means its implied odds to win are 23.5 percent. That aligns with the chance our composite model gives the Tigers (22.8 percent).

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Unfortunately for the Tigers, neither their underdog traits nor Texas’ profile as a favorite does much to shift those odds. Clemson ranks in the mid-50s in the FBS in both variability and luck, so they haven’t really underperformed or shown a massive ceiling this season. And Texas is exactly what you want to see in a safe favorite: Not only are the Longhorns extremely consistent (seventh in the country in lowest variability), but they’ve also been unfortunate (82nd in luck). So they may be even better than their record indicates.

But instead of ending on some misbegotten crack about how Syracuse would make a more entertaining ACC entrant in the CFP than Clemson, let’s use this game to consider a truly amazing probability. If Texas gets by Clemson, we estimate there’s about an 85 percent chance the Longhorns would then defeat Arizona State. Which means the odds that Texas will make the semifinal of the Playoff are about two in three.

Now ask yourself: Does Oregon have a 65 percent chance to beat Ohio State?

The biggest lesson from how the CFP matchups are shaking out is that Texas’ No. 5 slot is the sweetest spot in the field. Even with the Ducks holding a bye in their beaks, at this moment, you’d rather be Texas than Oregon.

(Illustration by Will Tullos; photo of Kevin Jennings: Grant Halverson / Getty Images; photo of Kurtis Rourke: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)

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Former NFL Players Of Iranian Descent Speak Up For Freedom From Islamic Regime

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Former NFL Players Of Iranian Descent Speak Up For Freedom From Islamic Regime

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Ali Haji-Sheikh and Shar Pourdanesh share the fact they are retired NFL players living beyond the glow of the NFL spotlight. But they also share another distinction tying them to current events: They are part of the Iranian diaspora hoping for the downfall of the Islamic revolution.

They make up part of a small group of men who played in the NFL – along with David Bakhtiari, his brother Eric Bakhtiari and T.J. Housmandzadeh – who are decedents of Iranians.

Washington Redskins kicker Ali Haji-Sheikh (6) talks to reporters at Jack Murphy Stadium during media day prior to Super Bowl XXII against the Denver Broncos. San Diego, California, on Jan. 26, 1988.(Darr Beiser/USA TODAY Sports)

Haji-Sheikh: Self-Determination For Iranians

Haji-Sheikh, 65, played in the 1980s for the New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons and Washington Redskins. He was a first-team All-Pro, made the Pro Bowl and was on the NFL All-Rookie team in 1983 for the Giants and, in his final season, won a Super Bowl XXII ring playing for the Washington Redskins and kicking six extra points in a 42-10 blowout of the Denver Broncos.

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Now, Haji-Sheikh is the general manager at a Michigan Porsche-Audi dealership and is like the rest of us: Keeping up with world events when time permits. 

Except the war the United States is currently waging against the Islamic Republic of Iran is kind of different because Haji-Sheikh’s dad emigrated from Iran to the United States in the 1950s and built a life here.

And his son would like to see freedom come to a country he’s never visited but has a kinship to.

“It’s a world event,” Haji-Sheikh said on Monday. “I am not a big fan of the Islamic revolution because I am not Islamic. I would like to see the people of Iran be able to determine their own future rather than it be determined by a few people. It would be nice to see them having a stable government where the people can actually decide how they want it to go.

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Green Bay Packers kicker Al Del Greco (10) talks with New York Giants kicker Ali Haji-Sheikh (6) on Sept. 15, 1985, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Giants 23-20.

Iranians Celebrating And Americans Protesting

Haji-Sheikh hasn’t taken to the streets of his native Michigan to celebrate a liberation that hasn’t fully manifested mere days after the American and Israeli bombing and elimination of the Ayatollah. 

“I’m so far removed from that,” Haji-Sheikh said. “My mom is from Michigan and of Eastern European background. My dad is from Iran. But it’s like, he hasn’t been back since I was in eighth grade, so that’s a long time ago. That was when the Shah was still in power, mid-70s, ‘74 or ’75, because if he ever went back after that he never would have left. They would have held him, so there was no intention of going back.

“But if things change he might want to go, you never know.”

Despite being removed from any activism about what is happening in Iran Haji-Sheikh is an astute observer.

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“My favorite thing I’m seeing right now on TV is the Iranians in America celebrating because there’s a chance, a glimpse, maybe a hope for freedom,” Haji-Sheikh said. “And you have these people in New York protesting. What are you protesting?”

Pourdanesh Thanks America, Israel

Pourdanesh retired from the NFL in 2000 after a seven-year career with the Redskins and Steelers. The six-foot-six and 312-pound offensive tackle was born in Tehran. He proudly tells people he was the NFL’s first Iranian-born player.

Pourdanesh is much more visible and open about his feelings about his country than others. And, bottom line, he loves that President Donald Trump is bombing the Islamic regime.

“This is a great day for all Iranians across the world,” Pourdanesh posted on his Instagram account on Saturday when the war began. “Thank you, President Trump, thank you to the nation of Israel. Thank you for everybody that has been standing up for my people, my brothers and sisters in Iran across the world. This is a great day.

“The infamous dictator is dead – the one person who has contributed to deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iranians and other people around the world, if not more. So, congratulations to my Iranian brothers and sisters. Now, go and take back the country.”

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This message was not a one-off. Pourdanesh has been posting about what has been happening in Iran since January, when people in Iran took to the streets demanding liberty and the government’s thugs began killing them, with some estimates rising to 36,500 deaths.

Offensive lineman Shar Pourdanesh (68) of the Pittsburgh Steelers blocks against defensive lineman Jevon Kearse (90) of the Tennessee Titans during a game at Three Rivers Stadium on Sept. 24, 2000, in Pittsburgh. The Titans defeated the Steelers 23-20. (Photo by George Gojkovich/Getty Images)

‘Islam Does Not Represent The Iranian People’

“[The] Islamic Republic does not represent the Iranian people,” Pourdanesh said in another post. “Islam does not represent the Iranian people. For almost 50 years, the Iranian people and our country of Iran has been taken hostage by a terrorist regime, and it’s time to take that regime down.”

Pourdanesh was not available for comment on Monday. I did speak to a handful of other Iranian-Americans on Monday. They didn’t play in the NFL, but their opinions are no less valuable than those of former NFL players.

And these people, some of them participating in rallies on behalf of a free Iran, do not understand the thinking of some Americans and mainstream media.

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One complained that media that reports on reparations for black Americans based on slavery in the 1800s dismisses the Islamic takeover of the American Embassy in 1979 as an old grievance.

Another said his brother lives in England, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer immediately called the American and Israeli attacks on the Ayatollah’s regime “illegal” but, as the head of the Crown Prosecution Service took years to do the same of Muslim rape (grooming) gangs in the country.

(Starmer announced a national “statutory inquiry” in June 2025). 

Offensive lineman Shar Pourdanesh of the Washington Redskins looks on from the sideline during a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Three Rivers Stadium on Sept. 7, 1997, in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defeated the Redskins 14-13. (Photo by George Gojkovich/Getty Images)

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Pourdanesh Calls Out NFL Silence

And finally, Pourdanesh put the NFL on blast. He said in yet another post that during his career, the NFL asked him to honor black history, asked him to stand for women’s rights, asked him to fight for equality for those who cannot defend themselves.

“I did everything they asked, and now I ask the NFL this: Where are you now? Why haven’t we heard a single word out of the NFL? NFL, Commissioner Roger Goodell, all the NFL teams out there, all the players who say they stand for social justice, where are you now?

“Why haven’t we heard a single word out of you with regard to the people who have been killed as of today? The very values you claim to espouse are being trampled right now. Why haven’t we heard a single word?”

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Commentary: Will Klein isn’t surprised he saved the Dodgers’ World Series dynasty

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Commentary: Will Klein isn’t surprised he saved the Dodgers’ World Series dynasty

The day after he saved the Dodgers’ season, Will Klein was hungry. He ordered from Mod Pizza.

He drove over to pick up his order. The guy that handed him the pizza told him he looked just like Will Klein.

“You should just look at the name on the order,” Klein told him.

Chaos ensued.

“He actually started screaming,” Klein said. “He just started flipping out, which was funny.”

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Thing is, if it were two days earlier, the guy would have had no idea what Klein looked like. Neither would you.

On Oct. 26, Klein was the last man in the Dodgers’ bullpen, a wild thing on his fourth organization in two years, a last-minute addition to the World Series roster.

On Oct. 27, the Dodgers played 18 innings, and the last man in the Dodgers’ bullpen delivered the game of his life: four shutout innings, holding the Toronto Blue Jays at bay until Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off home run.

Dodgers pitcher Will Klein celebrates during the 16th inning of Game 3 of the World Series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Dodger Stadium on Oct. 27.

(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)

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When Klein returned to the clubhouse, Sandy Koufax walked over to shake hands and congratulate him.

That was Game 3 of the World Series. The Dodgers, the significantly older team, slogged through the next two games, batting .164 and losing both.

If not for Klein, that would have been the end. The Blue Jays would have won the series in five games, and there would have been no Kiké Hernández launching a game-ending double play on the run in Game 6, no Miguel Rojas tying home run and game-saving throw in Game 7, no Andy Pages game-saving catch and Will Smith winning home run in Game 7, no Yoshinobu Yamamoto winning Game 6 as a starter and Game 7 as a reliever.

There would have been no parade.

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When Klein rescued the Dodgers, he had pitched one inning in the previous 30 days.

“You can never take your mind out of it,” he said. “You’ve got to stay prepared. Something might come up, and you don’t want to be the guy that gets thrown in the fire and just burns.”

The Dodgers are not shy about grabbing a minor league pitcher, telling him what he can do better and what he should stop doing, and seeing what sticks. If nothing sticks, the Dodgers are also not shy about spitting out the pitcher and designating him for assignment.

In his minor league career, Klein struck out 13 batters every nine innings, which is tremendous. He walked seven batters every nine innings, which is hideous.

The Dodgers scrapped his slider, mixed in a sweeper, and told him his arm was so good that he should stop trying to make perfect pitches and just let fly.

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“A lot of times, pitchers are guilty of giving hitters too much credit, and hitters are guilty of giving pitchers too much credit,” said Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations.

“Part of our job is to show them information that helps instill some confidence. I think that really landed with Will.”

In his four September appearances with the Dodgers — after a minor-league stint to apply the team’s advice — he faced 17 batters, walked one, and did not give up a run. That’s why he isn’t buying the suggestion that something suddenly clicked in the World Series.

“Things were incrementally getting better,” he said, “and then you add that to the atmosphere. It amplifies it to 100. All the prep work and mental stuff that I had been doing, I finally got a chance to shine.”

Said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts: “He’s done it in the highest of leverage. You can’t manufacture that. You’ve got to live it and do it. So, since he’s done it, I think he’s got a real confidence.”

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Dodgers pitcher Will Klein speaks during DodgerFest at Dodger Stadium on Jan. 31.

Dodgers pitcher Will Klein speaks during DodgerFest at Dodger Stadium on Jan. 31.

(John McCoy / Getty Images)

Klein last started a game three years ago, at triple A. After making 72 pitches in those four innings of Game 3, did he entertain the thought that maybe, just maybe, he was meant to be a starter after all?

“No,” he said abruptly. “I hate waiting four or five days to pitch and knowing exactly when I’m going to pitch.

“When I did, the anxiety just built. I want to go pitch. I hate sitting there and waiting. That kind of eats at you. I like being able to go out to the bullpen and have a chance to pitch every day.”

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The Dodgers are so deep that Klein might not make the team out of spring training. Whatever happens, he’ll always have Game 3.

In the wake of that game, a fan wanted to buy a Klein jersey but could not find one. So the fan made one himself before Game 4, using white electrical tape on the back of a Dodger blue jersey. I showed Klein a picture.

“That’s cool,” Klein said. “That’s pretty funny.”

Dave Wong, a Dodgers fan living in San Francisco Giants territory, also wanted to buy a Klein jersey.

“They didn’t have a jersey for him,” Wong said.

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He settled for the Dodger blue T-shirt he found online and wore it to last Friday’s Cactus League game against the Giants, with these words in white letters: “Will Klein Appreciation Shirt.”

This, then, would be a Will Klein Appreciation Column.

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NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women

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NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women

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An NBA player has taken exception to an Atlanta Hawks promotional night, which is a nod to a famed strip club in the city. 

The Hawks have “Magic City Night” scheduled for March 16 against the Orlando Magic, but a player for neither team isn’t too fond of paying tribute to a strip club, which has been famed for its late-night stories involving athletes, celebrities and more. 

While the Hawks call it an ode to a “cultural institution,” San Antonio Spurs center Luke Kornet shared his displeasure in a letter posted on Medium. 

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Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs reaches for the ball during the third quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Feb. 26, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.  (Ishika Samant/Getty Images)

Kornet, a nine-year veteran and 2024 NBA champion with the Boston Celtics, called for the Hawks’ promotional night to be canceled later this month, saying that it is disrespectful to women to honor the strip club. 

“In its press release, the Hawks failed to acknowledge that this place is, as the business itself boasts, “Atlanta’s premier strip club.” Given this fact, I would like to respectfully ask that the Atlanta Hawks cancel this promotional night with Magic City,” Kornet wrote in his post.

“The NBA should desire to protect and esteem women, many of whom work diligently every day to make this the best basketball league in the world. We should promote an atmosphere that is protective and respectful of the daughters, wives, sisters, mothers, and partners that we know and love.”

The Hawks boasted about the theme night in its press release, including a live performance by famous Atlanta rapper T.I., a co-branded, limited-edition hoodie and even the establishment’s “World Famous” lemon-pepper chicken wings in the arena. 

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A general view of signage with the State Farm Arena logo on Nov. 14, 2025, outside State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, GA. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire)

“This collaboration and theme night is very meaningful to me after all the work that we did to put together ’Magic City: An American Fantasy’,” said Hawks principal owner, filmmaker and actor, Jami Gertz, said in a press release. “The iconic Atlanta institution has made such an incredible impact on our city and its unique culture.”

Kornet wrote that allowing the night to continue “without protest would reflect poorly on us as an NBA community, “specifically in being complicit in the potential objectification and mistreatment of women in our society.”

Kornet wrote that “others throughout the league” were surprised by the Hawks’ decision to have this promotional night. 

“We desire to provide an environment where fans of all ages can safely come and enjoy the game of basketball and where we can celebrate the history and culture of communities in good conscience. The celebration of a strip club is not conduct aligned with that vision,” he wrote. 

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Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs defends against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on Jan. 31, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

The Hawks have seen good reception for the promotional night, as Tick Pick reported a get-in price was initially $10 for the game and has since skyrocketed to $94. 

Kornet is in his first season with the Spurs, his sixth NBA team, where he has played mainly in a bench role. He averages 7.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game across 50 contests.

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