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Russian and Syrian warplanes seek to blunt rebel advance from Aleppo

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Russian and Syrian warplanes seek to blunt rebel advance from Aleppo

Russian and Syrian warplanes have intensified attacks on rebels who over-ran most of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, in a lightning assault that poses the biggest challenge in years to Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Air raids struck the rebel-held city of Idlib for a second day on Sunday, while opposition media and war monitors said Russian and Syrian jets had also launched attacks near Aleppo University Hospital.

Thousands of rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, entered Aleppo city, which has a population of 2mn, on Friday. Images circulating on opposition-linked social media this weekend showed them raising their flag over the city’s citadel and posing in its airport.

The rebels, who launched their assault only on Wednesday, said their fighters had advanced in multiple directions from their stronghold in Idlib province in north-western Syria, although their progress seemed to have slowed by Sunday.

HTS rebels attempted to press on to the major regime-held city of Hama, south of Aleppo, and claimed they had seized at least four towns in Hama province. The Syrian army has denied this. Rebels also said they captured the strategic town of Sheikh Najjar.

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In his first public comments since the start of the offensive, Assad said Syria would continue to “defend its stability and its territorial integrity in the face of terrorists and their supporters”, in remarks carried by state news agency Sana.

The comments came during a call with Emirati leader Mohammed bin Zayed, an Assad ally, who “emphasised the UAE’s solidarity with Syria and its support in combating terrorism”.

Later, Assad vowed to defeat the insurgents in a phone call with the acting leader of the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia, Badra Ganba, saying “terrorism only understands the language of force”.

It was not clear whether Assad had returned to Syria following a visit to Moscow earlier this week.

The Syrian army denied that the rebels had secured Aleppo, but later said it was redeploying its forces as it prepared to launch a counterattack supported by Russian air strikes and strengthen its defensive lines after days of fierce fighting. Dozens of Syrian army soldiers were killed by rebel forces, the defence ministry said.

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Social media videos showed rebel fighters driving through the streets of Aleppo, pulling down and kicking statues of Assad family members and celebrating by honking horns and firing their weapons. Videos also showed them freeing captives from Aleppo prisons.

Hundreds of civilians fled the city and its suburbs and headed for regime- or Kurdish-controlled areas, fearing a repeat of the gruelling 2016 battle that devastated their city. Those who remained in Aleppo were placed under night-time curfew by the HTS, residents told the Financial Times, adding that the streets were mostly empty on Sunday.

Assad faces increasing domestic and external pressures in a country shattered by a civil war that erupted after a 2011 popular uprising. He was able to quash the original rebellion with military backing from Russia, Iran and Iran-backed groups, including Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant movement.

Despite regaining control over two-thirds of the country, years of conflict and a deep economic crisis have left much of Syria in ruins.

The fighting had largely subsided in recent years, with the surviving rebel groups pushed into northern and north-western areas close to the Turkish border.

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But over the past year, Israel has intensified air strikes on Iran-affiliated targets in Syria as it launched an offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon, severely weakening groups that had played a vital role in keeping Assad in power.

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HTS’s ability to move deeper into Syria is a major embarrassment for Assad, underscoring the regime’s weakness. The offensive appeared to have been planned for years, and comes at a time when Assad’s allies are preoccupied with their own conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani said his fighters would not rest “until we reach the heart of Damascus”, in old video footage that was republished by social media networks linked to the group this weekend.

Russian warplanes bombed rebel positions in a bid to stem their advance. Russia’s defence ministry was quoted by state news agencies as saying the country’s forces had killed “at least 300 militants by missile strikes . . . on command posts, warehouses and artillery positions”.

Russian military blog Rybar, known to be close to the defence ministry, said it understood that Major General Sergei Kisel, the top commander of Russia’s forces in Syria, had been removed from his post.

He was earlier removed from his position commanding Russia’s 1st tank army in Ukraine shortly after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, after the supposedly elite force suffered heavy defeats in the first weeks of the war.

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The Rybar channel also said Russian troops were forced to evacuate the Kuweires air base in the Aleppo area as the rebels advanced. The Syrian air base was regularly used by Russian forces.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has discussed the situation in Syria with Hakan Fidan, his Turkish counterpart. Lavrov also spoke to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, who is expected to visit Damascus on Sunday and Ankara on Monday, as the main powers involved in Syria began a flurry of diplomacy.

Araghchi on Sunday reaffirmed Iran’s unwavering support for Assad, accusing radical Islamist factions of aligning with the interests of the US and Israel. “We will witness their defeat,” he said.

Iranian state media reported that opposition forces in Aleppo seized Iran’s consulate on Saturday, tearing down and destroying images of Iranian political and military leaders.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which are supported by the US in the fight against Isis and control swaths of Syria’s north-east, announced a general mobilisation on Sunday. They called on people to join in the defence against the rebel offensive, which they say was “orchestrated” by Turkey — their longtime foe.  

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Additional reporting by Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran

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Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply

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Europe and Asia battle for LNG as Iran war chokes supply

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Asian and European buyers are battling to source liquefied natural gas after the war in the Middle East choked off shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a fifth of global supplies.

In an indication of the intensifying contest for LNG since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, a handful of gas carriers have abruptly changed course while sailing to Europe and swung towards Asia instead, according to ship monitoring data analysed by the FT.

Countries across Asia are highly dependent on oil and gas sent through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway where shipping has slowed to a near standstill.

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Most of the LNG produced in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is ordinarily shipped through the strait to Asia, and Asian LNG prices surged almost immediately after war broke out, creating an incentive to divert US gas to the region.

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Taiwan, South Korea and Japan are among the countries that need to source LNG to make up for supplies they will not receive from the Gulf, said Massimo Di Odoardo, head of gas and LNG analysis at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Taiwan relied on Qatar for more than 30 per cent of its gas consumption in 2025, according to Citigroup, while for South Korea and Japan the figures were 15 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Asia typically uses more gas than Europe in the hotter summer months because of more air-conditioning use, creating urgency for Asian utilities to secure cargoes.

The vast majority of LNG is sold under long-term contracts rather than on the spot market, but some buyers are able to change the final destination of their purchases and some sellers are willing to break contracts if prices rise high enough.

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By Thursday, surging European gas prices and rocketing shipping rates had swung the balance back against diversion of US LNG to Asia, according to data company Spark Commodities.

The decision on where to send gas carriers can depend on the relative levels of the European gas price, Asia’s JKM benchmark for LNG and shipping rates.

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For European buyers, the battle with Asia for LNG supplies is eerily familiar to the situation four years ago after Russia slashed pipeline natural gas flows to the continent following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Competition for spare cargoes then pushed prices to record levels.

On Monday, European gas prices reached as high as €69.50 per megawatt hour, more than double their level before the Iran conflict began. Even so, prices are still far from the €342 per megawatt hour reached in 2022.

JKM gas prices also more than doubled since the start of the war to $24.80 per 1mn British thermal units by Monday, equivalent to €73.10/MWh.

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European buyers have learnt from their experience in 2022. “Europe has more weapons at its disposal in this extreme price scenario to try and fight,” said Alex Kerr, a partner at law firm Baker Botts.

Buyers had started putting clauses in contracts to say that suppliers would face much higher penalties if they diverted cargoes for commercial gain, Kerr said.

There is also much more LNG on the market now that is not committed to set destinations, largely because of new projects starting in the US.

While producers such as Qatar impose strict rules on where its LNG can be sent, almost all US exports are allowed to sail wherever buyers want. Several analysts said there had also been an increase in the willingness of some producers to break contracts for financial advantage.

This makes diversions more likely, while the reluctance of some European buyers to sign long-term supply contracts before the outbreak of war this month could prove costly.

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Expectations of a global supply glut convinced some European buyers that it would be cheaper to wait until later in the year to sign supply deals.

Wood Mackenzie’s Di Odoardo said the buyers had also held off on LNG purchases because new EU legislation on methane emissions made it unclear whether they could incur penalties in the future.

The risk of prices rising as Europe and Asia fight for available cargoes is increasing every day the Strait of Hormuz stays almost closed.

Gas is more difficult to store and to carry in tankers than oil, making its markets more vulnerable to shortages and price shocks.

“The longer the Strait remains shut, the greater the risk that the shipping disruption turns into a genuine gas shortage, as tankers cannot load and facilities have limited storage,” said consultancy Oxford Economics in a research note.

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Additional reporting by Harry Dempsey in Tokyo. Data visualisation by Jana Tauschinski

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Is Iran another Iraq? : Sources & Methods

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Is Iran another Iraq? : Sources & Methods
Poor planning, overly ambitious goals, not thinking through the aftermath. These are the parallels that Richard Haass sees between the 2003 U.S. invastion of Iraq and its current air campaign against Iran.Haass was in charge of planning for the invasion as a top official in the State Department. He was a voice of dissent within the administration. Now he’s president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of the Home & Away newsletter. He talks to Host Mary Louise Kelly about the Trump administration’s foreign policy and national security apparatus and where he sees it falling short on Iran.Email the show at sourcesandmethods@npr.orgNPR+ supporters hear every episode without sponsor messages and unlock access to our complete archive. Sign up at plus.npr.org.
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Concert promoter Live Nation settles US monopoly case over ticket sales

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Concert promoter Live Nation settles US monopoly case over ticket sales

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Live Nation has agreed to a preliminary settlement with the US government to end a monopoly case brought by the Department of Justice, in a deal that would stop short of breaking up the company.

The DoJ and some US states have reached a deal with Live Nation, which is the parent company of Ticketmaster, less than a week after trial began in New York, according to a senior justice department official. But 27 other state attorneys-general have refused to join the agreement, arguing it benefits Live Nation. 

The DoJ in 2024 sued Live Nation, accusing it of operating a monopoly that “suffocates its competition” in the live entertainment industry. The government alleged that the company illegally dominated the market for ticketing and concert promotion, using “exclusionary conduct” to wield an outsized influence over the majority of live concert venues across the US.

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The lawsuit came amid growing discontent among fans, rivals, artists and US lawmakers, who have accused Live Nation of abusing its market power by charging exorbitant fees and retaliating against venues that choose to work with rivals.

It followed a fiasco during the ticket sale of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in 2022, when Ticketmaster’s website was overwhelmed by massive demand.

The terms of the deal, which will have to be confirmed by a federal court, include Live Nation offering a product that will allow other ticketing companies to use its technology. It would also let go of 13 amphitheatres it owns or controls — a number that may rise if other states join the agreement. 

The deal “opens up markets for other competitors, which will allow for competition that previously didn’t exist in primary ticketing and in the live entertainment space”, said a senior DoJ official. 

“That competition is going to have a direct impact on prices coming down,” he added. “It’ll also give consumers more options and not feel like they just have to go through Live Nation or Ticketmaster.”

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But New York state attorney-general Letitia James, who has led a bipartisan group of states suing Live Nation, on Monday said in a statement that the agreement “fails to address the monopoly at the center of this case, and would benefit Live Nation at the expense of consumers. We cannot agree to it.”

“[W]e will continue our lawsuit to protect consumers and restore fair competition to the live entertainment industry,” she added.

Live Nation did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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