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How China Became the World’s Largest Car Exporter

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How China Became the World’s Largest Car Exporter

Source: Alix Partners

Note: 2024 values are estimated.

Just two decades ago, China had little capacity to make cars, and owning one was considered novel. Today, China produces and exports more cars than any other country in the world.

President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised to impose new tariffs on China. Many countries, including the United States, already levy extra tariffs on China’s electric vehicles. But with all of the advantages China wields in automaking, this pushback is unlikely to undercut China’s dominance.

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China’s home market for car sales is the world’s largest — almost as big as the American and European markets combined.

As China’s domestic market grew, so did its production capacity, propelled by massive government investment and world-beating advances in automation. Yet in recent years, the pace of sales has fallen behind as consumer spending slows in China’s economic downturn. The result is that China today has the capacity to make nearly twice as many cars as its consumers need.

Source: GlobalData

Note: 2024 values are estimated.

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To deal with the excess, China has increasingly looked overseas to sell cars.

China is a leader in the transition to electric vehicles and it exports more of them than any other country. Chinese brands like BYD are becoming known worldwide for offering advanced electric cars at the most competitive prices. And as Chinese drivers have shifted rapidly to electric vehicles, demand for gasoline-powered cars in China has plunged and many are being exported instead.

But China’s trading partners say that China’s exports of both electric and gasoline-powered cars imperil millions of jobs and threaten major companies. Earlier this year, the United States and the European Union put significant new tariffs on electric cars from China. Governments are concerned because the auto industry plays a big role in national security, producing tanks, armored personnel carriers, freight trucks and other vehicles.

What’s more, China has used steep tariffs and other taxes as a barrier to car imports, so that practically all of the cars sold in China are made in China.

Here’s how China took the lead in the global car market.

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Decades of investment in electric cars pays off

Last year, China sold 1.7 million electric cars abroad, nearly 50 percent more than the next largest exporter, Germany. Since 2020, shipments have skyrocketed.

The top destination is Europe, where consumers prefer small, compact models like those sold in China.

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Southeast Asia is another big market, where buyers increasingly prefer Chinese cars for their cheaper prices.

China also exports a small but fast-growing number of plug-in hybrid cars. Hybrids are particularly popular among buyers who may not have access to extensive charging networks but still want electric cars for short trips.

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China has invested heavily for more than 15 years in developing electric cars, to limit its dependence on imported oil. Wen Jiabao, China’s premier from 2003 to 2013, made electric cars one of his highest priorities. In 2007, he reached outside the Communist Party to choose Wan Gang, a Shanghai-born former Audi engineer in Germany, as the country’s minister of science and technology. Mr. Wen gave him essentially a blank check to make China the world’s leader in electric cars.

Now, half of China’s car buyers choose battery electric or plug-in hybrid cars. Until recently, buyers of electric cars also received large subsidies from the government. Carmakers have received low-interest-rate loans from state-controlled banks to build dozens of factories, as well as government tax breaks and cheap land and electricity. By one estimate, Beijing’s assistance to China’s electric car and battery sectors has been worth more than $230 billion since 2009 — one reason that the European Union has imposed anti-subsidy tariffs.

China is projected to continue its heavy investment and retain its lead in electric vehicles.

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Unloading excess gasoline cars at steep discounts

Because of the shift to electric cars in China, carmakers have been left to slash prices on unwanted gasoline cars and unload them overseas. Last year, most of the cars China sold abroad were traditional gasoline engine cars.

Russia was the leading destination last year. Sales surged after the Ukraine invasion, partly because of the departure of Western brands from the Russian market.

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China’s gasoline cars were also favored by middle- and lower-income countries in Latin America and the Middle East for being cost-effective.

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China has more than 100 factories with a combined capacity to build close to 40 million internal combustion engine cars a year. That is more than twice as many as people in China want to buy, and sales of these cars are dropping fast as electric vehicles become more popular.

As a result, some assembly plants have been mothballed or shuttered. But automakers, reluctant to close facilities, are selling many gasoline-burning cars overseas at steep discounts.

Will tariffs be able to slow China down?

The flood of Chinese cars into the global market has raised alarms around the world. In addition to the European Union, governments elsewhere have levied extra tariffs on electric cars from China, on top of baseline taxes already applied to all imported vehicles.

Additional tariffs levied on Chinese electric cars in major world markets

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Note: Chart does not show baseline taxes or favored rates dependent on manufacturer or other compliance. India and Brazil levy tariffs on imported electric cars from all countries. Turkey levies the same tariff on all cars from China.

The countries’ tariffs come in different forms. The U.S. government levied a flat tax. The European Union calculated a rate for each automaker based on the estimated subsidies the company has received from Chinese government agencies and state-controlled banks. India and Brazil are also aiming to protect their local industries.

But tariffs may not fully offset Chinese carmakers’ competitive lead. Chinese companies offer cars with similar quality to their global rivals and at lower cost. Analysts at the bank UBS calculate that cars made by BYD cost 30 percent less to assemble than similar cars made by Western companies. Some of the biggest savings for Chinese companies are on batteries. China controls practically the entire supply chain for making electric car batteries.

Production costs are much lower in China

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Source: UBS

Note: Models compared are of similar size and function. Prices are in U.S. dollars, for models from 2021.

With the advantages China wields in automaking, even the world’s intensifying pushback is unlikely to stop the country from dominating the industry for many years to come.

BYD electric cars stacked for loading onto a ship for export at Taicang Port in Suzhou.

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Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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Super Bowl spots spark fight over whether we’re ready for ads from our chatbots

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Super Bowl spots spark fight over whether we’re ready for ads from our chatbots

The chatbot wars entered the Super Bowl this year.

At Super Bowl LX, a ChatGPT competitor paid millions of dollars for commercials mocking the leading artificial intelligence chatbot’s plans to put advertisements in its chats.

One of the ads, titled “Betrayal,” showed a man seeking help to communicate better with his mother. His therapist, representing a sponsored bot, offers advice on mending the relationship, then suddenly suggests a mature dating site to connect with “roaring cougars.”

The ads from Anthropic, which has a chatbot named Claude, ends with the tagline: “Ads are coming to AI. But not to Claude.”

AI companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars and need to generate more revenue to keep spending. Though much of the money comes from subscriptions from companies and other heavy users, companies serving regular consumers will probably need to increasingly rely on ads and other methods to monetize mass market users.

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The Super Bowl Sunday ads launched a debate about what a future would look like in which the bots many people talk to all day start pitching products.

OpenAI, which has more than 800 million users, generated around $20 billion in revenue in 2025, according to its chief executive, Sam Altman. That still isn’t enough to cover what it has borrowed and plans to spend.

Last month, OpenAI said it will be testing ads for its free-tier users and its low-cost ChatGPT Go subscribers in the U.S.

“Subscriptions cover the committed users,” said former Google executive Justin Inman, who is the founder of Emberos, a startup that researches brand visibility in AI. “But they have a ton of free users as well.”

Ads have just started rolling out on ChatGPT, and the company has shared examples of what they look like in a chat.

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One example showed a static link to purchase hot sauce at the bottom of the answer, labeled ‘sponsored’. Another was more conversational. After answering a user query about Santa Fe, the chatbox provided a link to a desert cottage in the locality.

OpenAI underlined that the ads won’t influence ChatGPT’s answers and will be separate and clearly labeled.

Altman responded to the Anthropic commercial on X, calling it funny but “dishonest.”

“We would obviously never run ads in the way Anthropic depicts them,” he said. “We are not stupid and we know our users would reject that.”

He suggested Anthropic was being elitist.

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“Anthropic serves an expensive product to rich people,” he said, while OpenAI feels “strongly that we need to bring AI to billions of people who can’t pay for subscriptions.”

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees. Though the two companies have been long-term rivals, the Super Bowl ad was one of the first times the scuffle was so public.

While ChatGPT targeted everyday users, Anthropic has focused on selling chatbot services to business customers. The company has witnessed explosive growth, clocking a reported $9 billion in revenue in 2025, and is projected to reach $26 billion this year.

Demis Hassabis, the CEO of Google DeepMind, which operates Gemini, said in a recent interview that he was surprised by OpenAI’s decision to monetize the chatbot through ads this early. Pushing products mid-conversation inside a chatbot could hurt users’ trust in AI as a helpful assistant, he said.

Though Google’s Gemini chatbot doesn’t push ads, last year the company introduced ads in the AI-generated summaries users see atop Google search results. The company also began testing ads in “AI Mode,” a conversation feature on the Google homepage, where sponsored cards appear below the AI-generated search results.

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Elon Musk’s Grok, the AI that is integrated into the platform X, also told advertisers last year that it would start testing ads inside chatbot responses as a way to boost revenue and pay for the expensive chips powering AI.

More U.S. shoppers are already turning to AI chatbots, and a Deloitte survey found that trust in generative AI has been steadily increasing. Younger shoppers are using chatbots for comparison shopping, finding deals, summarizing product reviews, and generating shopping lists.

Even without bribing the bots to provide direct advertising, brands are already trying to find ways to get into the good books of AI search results. An entire cottage industry of startups and consultants has emerged to help retailers and brands ensure their products appear in AI search results, a field called Generative Engine Optimization.

The market for traditional search engine optimization was $20 billion to $25 billion, but the potential for AI-driven commerce is much larger, said Amay Aggarwal, a co-founder of Anglera. His company helped Los Angeles-based e-bike and outdoor goods retailer Retrospec adapt its product catalog so that AI chatbots such as ChatGPT and Gemini could accurately recommend the right bikes for specific conditions.

Even as advertising evolves to embrace AI, many of the top AI companies saw value in old-school Super Bowl television ads. In the era of fragmented internet culture, the Super Bowl remains one of the last major shared American television viewing events that draws more than 100 million viewers. AI companies paid up to $10 million for a 30-second spot.

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Super Bowl LX was overrun with advertisements from many AI majors, including OpenAI, which promoted its coding platform Codex, and Google’s Gemini, which spotlighted its photo-generation capabilities.

Despite being the “AI Super Bowl,” none of the major AI companies — OpenAI, Google, Anthropic — made the top 20 brands that performed well in generative AI search and conversation during Super Bowl week.

“Being an AI brand doesn’t automatically translate into being remembered by AI,” said Inman of Emberos, whose company produced The AI Influence Index, which tracked the top seven Super Bowl advertisers and how they were showing up in AI queries.

The seven brands that dominated chatbot searches were XFINITY, Bud Light, Squarespace, Ramp, Budweiser, Volkswagen and Dove.

“As ads move into chatbots, the real competition won’t be for attention — it’ll be for how clearly your message survives retelling by AI,” Inman said.

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Contributor: Blending hydrogen into gas pipelines would enrich utilities and harm Californians

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Contributor: Blending hydrogen into gas pipelines would enrich utilities and harm Californians

The people of Orange Cove in Fresno County could soon be an unwilling part of an experiment in dangerous, expensive utility boondoggles. And if California’s gas companies get their way, families statewide will be forced to pay higher energy bills, breathe more indoor air pollution and bear greater safety risks.

Southern California Gas Co. wants to use Orange Cove to test blending hydrogen with natural gas in its pipeline network. This might sound futuristic and clean because it would reduce fossil fuel use, but it would waste $64 million in SoCalGas customer money and threaten this community’s health and safety — without actually fighting climate change.

Worse yet, SoCalGas and two other utilities just petitioned state regulators to skip pilot projects altogether. If approved, they could then request to pump a 5% hydrogen blend across California without demonstrating safety.

The problem is blending hydrogen into pipelines and appliances designed for gas. Hydrogen is leakier and more flammable, and it burns hotter and faster than gas. It can’t be smelled or seen, and burning it increases asthma-causing air pollution in homes and risks damaging appliances. Forcing consumers to burn hydrogen worsens fire, explosion and health risks in our homes, where we should feel most safe

The truth is gas utilities’ hydrogen blending proposals intend to keep customers hooked on pipelines. Utilities earn huge profits on infrastructure investment — over 10% for SoCalGas. The wiser approach for Californians would be to switch from gas to electric appliances, protecting customers from volatile gas prices and toxic indoor air. But that would hurt gas utility profits.

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In my state of Colorado, our largest utility, Xcel Energy, proposed mixing hydrogen into the natural gas system serving a Denver suburb. When the community learned Xcel was forcing residents into a dangerous, expensive gas alternative disguised as climate action, they pushed back with enough time to force Xcel to pause its effort.

This story is playing out across the country and the world. In Eugene, Ore., backlash from residents made NW Natural cancel its hydrogen blending pilot. In Massachusetts, state regulators prevented utilities from pursuing similar plans. In the United Kingdom, residents of Whitby and Redcar protected themselves from even larger proposals.

Orange Cove is the next flare-up. SoCalGas began campaigning to blend hydrogen in 2022, but residents recently uncovered the truth and are speaking out accordingly. State regulators are expected to act by June, and their decision will have far-reaching consequences.

SoCalGas’ proposal stems from state policy to slash climate pollution from gas utility systems — a good idea, but a threat to utility profits. In theory, replacing natural gas with hydrogen can help gas utilities cut emissions while still investing in pipelines, because hydrogen can be produced and burned without emitting greenhouse gases.

But that’s where hydrogen’s advantages end.

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Let’s air out the proposal’s dirty laundry: SoCalGas’ proposal to blend less than 5% hydrogen into Orange Cove’s system — which serves about 2,000 customer gas meters — would cost $64 million over 18 months. That’s comparable to removing the tailpipe pollution of 100 cars for one year.

That same $64 million could permanently remove the pollution of 12 times as many gasoline cars if used to purchase new electric vehicles. It’s also worth around $32,000 per customer gas meter in Orange Cove — more than enough for the community to install electric heat pumps, heat pump water heaters and induction stoves, zeroing out gas use.

Using that $64 million to fund incentives for cleaner, efficient electric appliances could help tens of thousands of Californians eliminate indoor air pollution and climate emissions.

This price tag is ludicrous for an 18-month experiment. Clean hydrogen is an extremely expensive way to heat homes. Current prices are 10 to 25 times higher than that of natural gas, and even the most optimistic forecasts expect it to remain much more expensive for decades.

Gas utilities claim Orange Cove will “inform the feasibility of developing a hydrogen injection standard” to decarbonize their broader systems, but that hides the truth: Hydrogen blending is a dead end that at best would reduce gas utility climate emissions by less than 7%. California’s gas system was not designed to safely handle more than a small share of hydrogen, so this pilot project couldn’t meaningfully scale up without the wholesale replacement of all gas pipelines and appliances.

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Pilot projects seem small in the grand scheme of things, but they lend legitimacy to a bad idea debunked as a climate solution and wisely rejected by other communities time and time again. It would be even worse to ditch pilot tests and skip right to harming Californians with statewide blending.

Hydrogen is not categorically a “false solution” for climate. We need it to clean up things like fertilizer, chemicals and aviation fuel — products without cheaper clean alternatives that are made in specialized industrial complexes overseen by trained technicians.

But California doesn’t need hydrogen to clean up its buildings. Families are already choosing electric appliances for higher-quality, fully clean service. Hydrogen can’t save our gas networks; it can only waste money and delay California’s work to stop climate change.

Forcing communities to use hydrogen also reduces consumer choice. People have the freedom to install electric appliances when they’re ready, using government and utility incentives. With hydrogen blending, homes and businesses would have to use a lower-quality gas whether they want it or not, safety and health risks be damned.

The California Public Utilities Commission plays a critical role protecting customers from utility investments that lock in unjustifiable rate increases. Ultimately, the Orange Cove pilot is nothing more than an expensive waste of customer money with no near-term benefit and minuscule contribution toward California’s climate efforts.

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The mountain of scientific literature against hydrogen blending, lessons learned by other regulators and communities rejecting similar pilots, and the voices of Orange Cove residents should be enough to slam the door on this would-be boondoggle.

Dan Esposito is a manager in the nonpartisan think tank Energy Innovation’s fuels and chemicals program.

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Warner Bros. Discovery board faces pressure as activist investor threatens to vote no on Netflix deal

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Warner Bros. Discovery board faces pressure as activist investor threatens to vote no on Netflix deal

Activist investor Ancora Holdings Group is calling on the Warner Bros. Discovery board to consider a revised bid from Paramount Skydance and negotiate with the David Ellison-led company, or it says it will vote no on the proposed deal between Warner Bros. and Netflix.

The Cleveland-based investment management firm released a presentation Wednesday detailing why it believes Paramount’s latest offer could be a superior bid compared with the Netflix transaction.

Ancora said its stake in Warner Bros. Discovery is worth about $200 million, which would make its ownership less than 1% given the company’s $69.4-billion market cap.

Ancora cited uncertainty around the equity value and final debt allocation for the planned spinoff of Warner’s cable channels into a separate company as a factor that could change share valuation. The spinoff is still set to happen under the agreement with Netflix, as the streamer does not intend to buy the cable channels. Paramount has proposed buying the entire company.

The backing of David Ellison’s father, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, was a sign of the Paramount bid’s “credibility and executability,” Ancora said, adding that it had concerns about the regulatory hurdles Netflix could face.

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Senators grilled Netflix Co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos last week about potential antitrust issues related to its agreement to buy Warner Bros. Sarandos has said 80% of HBO Max subscribers in the U.S. also subscribe to Netflix and contended that a deal between the two would give the combined company 20% of the U.S. television streaming market, below the 30% threshold for a monopoly.

The investment management firm noted that Paramount is “reportedly viewed as the current administration’s ‘favored’ bidder — suggesting stronger political support,” a nod to the Ellison family’s friendly relationship with President Trump.

Trump has vacillated in his public statements on the deal. In December, he said he “would be involved” in his administration’s decision to approve any agreement, but last week, he said he “decided I shouldn’t be involved” and would leave it up to the Justice Department.

“Paramount’s latest offer has opened the door,” Ancora wrote in its presentation. “There is still a clear and immediately actionable path for the Hollywood ending that all [Warner] shareholders deserve.”

Ancora said it intends to vote no on the Netflix deal and that it also could seek to elect directors at the upcoming Warner shareholders meeting.

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Warner said in a statement that its board and management team “have a proven track record of acting in the best interests of the Company and shareholders” and that they “remain resolute in our commitment to maximize value for shareholders.”

Ancora’s presentation does highlight “two primary questions as shareholders approach this deal,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research for media and entertainment at Wedbush.

“The biggest question mark is what is Discovery Global worth?” she asked. “The second is how likely is Netflix to pass regulatory scrutiny?”

The firm’s opposition doesn’t necessarily mean the Warner board will change course, but if other significant shareholders take a similar stance, the board likely would need to “meaningfully and proactively engage further to seek more money,” said Corey Martin, a managing partner at the law firm Granderson Des Rochers.

“If I were Paramount … I would view this as a tea leaf that there might be a little bit of an opening here, to the extent we were to be aggressive,” he said. But, “if Paramount wants this company, it’s going to have to blow the Netflix bid out of the water so that there’s no question to the shareholders which bid represents the most value.”

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