A positive outcome is all but guaranteed when the European Parliament votes on whether to approve President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen’s new team of commissioners in its entirety, but there are good reasons to monitor Wednesday’s vote in the Strasbourg closely.

Parliament will vote to approve the incoming Commission, having previously endorsed all 26 commissioners through a backroom deal among centrist groups: the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe.

The new Commission requires an absolute majority of votes cast to be approved and take office in December. While this outcome seems likely, who votes for and against it remains somewhat uncertain. This is significant because it could shape and influence the parliamentary majority for the entire legislative term.

A twist in the pro-EU majority?

In July, Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected with 401 votes. At that time, the vote was conducted by secret ballot, though groups had publicly declared their intentions. Beyond the three centrist groups, the Greens/EFA group also supported von der Leyen. The Left group and all right-wing political forces voted against or abstained, with a few exceptions among the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

The result suggested a majority in the European Parliament resembling that of the previous legislature: centrist pro-EU groups, with close cooperation from the Greens.

However, the situation now could be very different. Firstly, the new Commission lineup includes Raffaele Fitto, a vice president from the right-wing Brothers of Italy party.

While von der Leyen has emphasized collaboration with “pro-EU”, “pro-Ukraine”, and “pro-rule of law” political forces, the chair of her EPP group in Parliament, Manfred Weber, has hinted at a broader coalition. He envisaged a “broad centre in the European Parliament, from the Greens to ECR.”

“My majority, if I may say so, is becoming real. And that makes me happy because we need broader stability in the European Parliament,” Weber said during a press conference in Strasbourg on Tuesday.

Such a majority could shift EU policy significantly rightward on issues such as migration and the environment. However, it also remains to be seen how von der Leyen’s grand centrist alliance holds in the voting tomorrow.

Defections and Divisions

Spain’s centre-right Partido Popular (PP) has announced it will not support the Commission due to the inclusion of Spanish Vice President Teresa Ribera, a member of its rival centre-left PSOE (S&D) party, in the lineup, according to the Spanish press agency EFE. The PP has not clarified whether its MEPs will vote against or abstain.

Within the Socialists, several MEPs are also dissatisfied with the new Commission’s composition. Dutch and Belgian members plan to vote against it, while other delegations may abstain, according to sources from the group. French Socialists have already declared their opposition. “We do not accept a far-right executive vice president such as Raffaele Fitto. I will vote against his inclusion in this Commission,” MEP Claire Fita told Euronews.

The deepest divisions, however, are among the Greens/EFA group on the left and the Conservatives on the right.

The Greens claim to be part of a “four-group majority” in the European Parliament and are ready to “work constructively” while opposing the far right. However, the group itself is split, as revealed during a meeting on Monday evening. Only a slim majority, led by German MEPs, supports the Commission, while French, Austrian, and Italian members plan to vote against it, according to multiple sources.

On the right, some members of the ECR group are eager to join the new majority, while others remain firmly opposed.

The Brothers of Italy, the largest delegation in the group, will vote in favour, as the new Commission includes one of its members as vice president. Other ECR delegations are expected to follow suit, according to group sources.

ADVERTISEMENT

However, Polish and French members will oppose the Commission, including prominent French MEP Marion Maréchal, niece of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who has criticised the designated commissioners. “Beyond the lack of competence of [French commissioner] Stéphane Séjourné, we face a commissioner for energy transition known for her anti-nuclear stance, a commissioner for demography who views immigration as a solution to declining birthrates, and a commissioner for equality who champions a pro-LGBTIQ+ agenda,” she told Euronews.

As the vote will be cast openly, the new commissioners will see which MEPs they can rely on. Two thresholds will be critical for their success: the 401 votes von der Leyen secured in July and the 461 that approved the previous Commission in November 2019.