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How Trump’s 2026 Iran ‘war’ script echoes and twists the 2003 Iraq playbook

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How Trump’s 2026 Iran ‘war’ script echoes and twists the 2003 Iraq playbook

In January 2003, President George W Bush stood before the United States Congress to warn of a “grave danger” from a “dictator”, a former US client in the Middle East, armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Twenty-three years later, in the same chamber, President Donald Trump used his State of the Union address to paint a strikingly similar narrative: A rogue regime, a looming nuclear threat, and a ticking clock.

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In a dark twist of historical irony, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, who was armed to the teeth by the US in Iraq’s 1980-1988 war with the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran, became Washington’s public enemy number one, surpassing Osama bin Laden. Now, that label has been seemingly applied to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a key leader during that ruinous war against Iraq that left a million dead.

But while the “war script” sounds familiar, the geopolitical stage has shifted dramatically.

As Washington pivots from the neoconservatives’ “preemptive” doctrine of the Bush era to what experts are calling the “preventive maintenance” of the Trump era – following the June 2025 strikes on Iran in tandem with Israel’s attack in the 12-day war – questions are mounting about the intelligence, the endgame, and the alarming lack of checks and balances.

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The semiotics of fear: From clouds to tunnels

In 2003, the visual language of war was vertical: The fear of a “mushroom cloud” rising over US cities, or a biological weapon seeping into populated areas. Today, the fear has gone in the other direction: Purportedly deep underground.

“The administration is updating the visual dictionary of fear,” says Osama Abu Irshaid, a Washington-based political analyst. “They are exaggerating the nuclear threat exactly as the Bush administration did with the ‘smoking gun’ metaphor. But there is a key difference: In 2003, US intelligence was manipulated to align with the lie. In 2026, the intelligence assessments actually contradict Trump’s claims.”

While Trump asserted in his State of the Union address that Iran is “rebuilding” its nuclear programme to strike the US mainland, his own officials offer conflicting narratives. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt insisted Tuesday, parroting her boss, that the 2025 “Operation Midnight Hammer” had “obliterated” Iran’s facilities. Yet, days earlier, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Tehran was “a week away” from the bomb.

This “information chaos”, analysts argue, serves a specific purpose: Keeping the threat vague enough to justify perpetual military pressure.

“Bush benefitted from the post-9/11 anger to link Iraq to an existential threat,” Abu Irshaid told Al Jazeera. “Trump doesn’t have that. Iran hasn’t attacked the US homeland. So, he has to fabricate a direct threat, claiming their ballistic missiles can reach America – a claim unsupported by technical realities.”

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The regime change quagmire

Perhaps the most glaring contrast with 2003 is the internal coherence of the administration.

The Bush team – Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz – moved in ideological lockstep. Cheney famously predicted US troops would be “greeted as liberators”.

They were anything but. The made-for-television scene of a statue of Saddam Hussein being torn down in central Baghdad quickly gave way to sustained, organised fighting against the US occupation, heavy US troop losses, as well as sectarian bloodletting that forced Iraq onto the cusp of all-out civil war.

Bush declaring major combat operations over under a huge “Mission Accomplished” banner in May 2003 came back to haunt his administration and the US for years to come.

The Trump team of 2026 appears far more fractured, torn between “America First” isolationism and aggressive interventionism.

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  • The official line: Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have publicly stated the goal is not regime change. “We are not at war with Iran, we’re at war with Iran’s nuclear programme,” Vance said Sunday.
  • The president’s instinct: Trump contradicted them on social media, posting: “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

“The Neocons who hijacked policy under Bush have been weakened,” notes Abu Irshaid. “But they have been replaced by figures like Stephen Miller, who holds absolute loyalty to Trump and close ties to the Israeli right. Trump is driven by instinct, not strategy. He seeks the ‘victory’ that eluded his predecessors: The total hollowing out of Iran, whether through zero-enrichment surrender or collapse.”

The lonely superpower: Coercion over coalition

In 2003, Bush and United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair worked tirelessly to build a “Coalition of the Willing”. It was a diplomatic veneer, but it existed. Blair remains a much-loathed figure in the Middle East and in some quarters in the West for giving diplomatic cover to the Iraq debacle.

In 2026, the US is operating in stark isolation.

“Trump is not building a coalition; he is alienating allies,” Abu Irshaid explains. He points to a pattern of “extortion” extending from tariffs on the European Union to attempts to “buy” Greenland. “The Europeans see the coercion used against Iran and fear it could be turned against them. Unlike 2003, only Israel is fully on board.”

This isolation was highlighted when the UK reportedly refused to allow the US to use island bases for strikes on Iran, forcing B-2 bombers to fly 18-hour missions directly from the US mainland during the 2025 campaign.

The collapse of checks and balances

Following the damning intelligence failures and lies of the Iraq war, promises were made to strengthen congressional oversight. Two decades later, those guardrails appear to have vanished.

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Despite efforts by US Representatives Ro Khanna (a Democrat) and Thomas Massie (a Republican) to invoke a “discharge petition” to block an unauthorised war, the political reality is grim.

“The concept of checks and balances is facing a severe test,” warns Abu Irshaid. “The Republican Party is now effectively the party of Trump. The Supreme Court leans right. Trump is operating with expanded post-9/11 powers that allow for ‘limited strikes’ – strikes that can easily spiral into the open war he claims to avoid.”

With the administration citing “32,000” protesters killed by Tehran – a figure significantly higher than independent estimates, and which Iran dismissed as “big lies” on Wednesday – the moral groundwork for escalation is being laid, bypassing the need for United Nations resolutions or congressional approval.

As US and Iranian negotiators meet in Geneva for make-or-break talks under the shadow of last year’s “Operation Midnight Hammer”, the question remains: Are the two nations with decades of enmity boiling between them on the brink of a new deal, or the prelude to a war that could ignite the entire region in flames?

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Sabrina Carpenter gets 5-year restraining order against man who kept trying to enter her home

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Sabrina Carpenter gets 5-year restraining order against man who kept trying to enter her home

LOS ANGELES (AP) — A man who tried to get into pop star Sabrina Carpenter ‘s home more than a dozen times was ordered by a judge Wednesday to stay away from her for five years.

William Applegate, 31, said at a hearing that he and Carpenter were part of a classified military program that required them to “be together as soon as possible” because it’s essential to “national and global security.”

In one instance last month, Applegate hit a security guard and was arrested after reaching the front door of Carpenter’s home in Los Angeles, she said in a petition. He got there through a neighboring property. He came back in the following days, and the judge issued a temporary restraining order on May 29.

Applegate admitted to all his appearances, saying Carpenter wanted him to be there. However, he said he would be “more than willing” to stay away from her if she told him herself. He said police and her representatives were working against him.

With no attorney, he delivered the message coherently, wearing a suit and sitting at the defense table with a laptop.

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Carpenter was ready to testify remotely but was not called to do so.

Chappell Roan arrives at the 68th annual Grammy Awards on Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP)

Her attorney Blair Berk told the judge “she is in fear for her own personal safety and the safety of members of her family.” Berk questioned Applegate only to verify that social media posts about Carpenter were from him.

Applegate said in his filing opposing the restraining order that he was at Carpenter’s Coachella festival performance in April and she had looked at him as she sang in an attempt to communicate with him.

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In her petition, Carpenter called him “a complete stranger” who she has never met or communicated with, and never wants to.

Judge David L. Wasserman treated Applegate’s assertions seriously in his questioning and said he appreciated the decorum of everyone in the courtroom.

“I understand that it’s your belief that in order to save the world, you and the petitioner must be together,” the judge said. “I expect you to obey the order, not what you think is right, not what you think the military commands you.”

He ordered Applegate to stay at least 100 yards (meters) from Carpenter and her sister and sister’s partner who live with her, along with many other restrictions. Applegate was also ordered not to attempt to communicate with her in any way and not to possess any firearms.

Applegate remains under a criminal investigation, but court records do not show that charges have been filed.

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Carpenter, 27, starred in the Disney Channel series “Girl Meets World” as a teen before turning to a music career. She had modest success with her first few studio albums before scoring a breakthrough with 2022’s “Emails I Can’t Send.” With her 2024 album “Short n’ Sweet” and its No. 1 hits “Espresso” and “Please Please Please,” she became a multiple Grammy winner and one of the biggest pop stars in the world.

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Finland’s parliament votes to lift decades-old ban on nuclear weapons in historic NATO defense shift

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Finland’s parliament votes to lift decades-old ban on nuclear weapons in historic NATO defense shift

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Finland’s parliament on Wednesday voted to lift a decades-old ban on nuclear weapons, approving a major defense policy shift aimed at aligning the country more closely with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) deterrence strategy.

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Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said a strong majority backed the amendment to the Nuclear Energy Act, calling it a “historic reform” that strengthens Finland’s security and that of the alliance.

“The Parliament approved the amendment to the Nuclear Energy Act with a strong 2/3 majority,” Häkkänen said in a post on X. “This historic reform strengthens the security of Finland and of NATO as a whole.

In April 2023, Finland joined NATO in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ending decades of military non-alignment. The move, aimed at securing Finland’s collective defense, roughly doubled NATO’s border with Russia.

ANOTHER NATO ALLY SIGNS ONTO EUROPEAN NUCLEAR UMBRELLA AS CONTINENT BOOSTS SELF-DEFENSE

EU Commissioner for Defence and Space, Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius (R) and Finnish Defence Minister Antti Haekkaenen (L) attend a press conference at the Ministry of Defence in Helsinki, Finland, on Sept. 26, 2025. (MARKKU ULANDER/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images)

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“The overall nuclear weapons policy has been one of the most challenging issues in the Ministry of Defence during this parliamentary term. Years of study, discussions with nuclear-weapon states and other allies, and assessments of how Finland’s security can best be strengthened in NATO,” Häkkänen said.

The measure repeals provisions in Finland’s 1987 Nuclear Energy Act that banned the import, production, possession and detonation of nuclear explosives.

If enacted, the legislation would allow nuclear weapons to be transported, supplied or possessed in Finland where the country’s military defense requires it.

FINLAND’S FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS UKRAINE ‘IS NOW HOLDING THE CARDS’ AS RUSSIA SIGNALS TALKS

The NATO emblem is displayed during the NATO Summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023. (Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto)

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According to Euro News, 125 deputies backed the government proposal, 61 voted against it and 13 abstained.

The bill now moves to the president for final approval.

“I thank all the Members of Parliament who supported our legislative proposal for their strong backing,” Häkkänen said. “Thank you to the defense administration professionals at home and abroad for their high expertise also in this project.”

Despite the bill passing, the proposal has drawn criticism from opposition lawmakers, who warned it could escalate tensions, make Finland a potential primary target, and break from regional norms, noting that several neighboring countries have rejected hosting or permitting nuclear weapons.

Commander of the Finnish Army Lieutenant General Pasi Valimaki addresses Finnish conscript soldiers after a military exercise at Pori Brigade in Niinisalo, Finland, Dec. 9, 2025. (Anne Kauranen/Reuters)

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The introduction of the proposed law also provoked a strong reaction from Russia last March, according to Reuters.

“This is a statement that leads to an escalation ​of tensions on the European continent,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“This statement adds to Finland’s vulnerability, a ​vulnerability provoked by the actions of the Finnish authorities. The fact is that by deploying ⁠nuclear weapons on its territory, Finland is beginning to threaten us. And if Finland threatens us, we take appropriate measures.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

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Row between Elon Musk and Germany’s ZDF sparks major controversy

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Row between Elon Musk and Germany’s ZDF sparks major controversy

The dispute between US tech entrepreneur Elon Musk and the public broadcaster ZDF is causing a major stir across Germany.

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In its coverage of last week’s anti-immigrant riots in Belfast, an edition of “ZDFheute live” said that Musk had called for “a migrant hunt” in his social media posts about Northern Ireland.

On Monday, Musk called ZDF’s characterisation of his words a “terrible lie” and said he was pursuing legal action against the broadcaster, which has since removed the contested passage.

On 9 June, Musk shared a post by British far-right activist Tommy Robinson in which Robinson, following the knife attack by a Sudanese man in Belfast, called for protests.

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Musk commented: “Only by protesting REPEATEDLY and LOUDLY will there be any change!!”

ZDF has since confirmed “that Elon Musk, via a German law firm, demanded a cease-and-desist declaration concerning the opening presentation of the 12 June 2026 edition of ‘ZDFheute live’ entitled ‘Riots in Belfast – How Musk is fuelling the protests.’ ZDF has complied and removed the disputed passage from the introduction. As early as Saturday, ZDF had added a corrective transparency note to the programme.”

The broadcaster added a disclaimer to the online version of the broadcast in question in which it admitted that its words were “imprecise and potentially misleading.”

According to the BBC, the US-based Centre for Countering Digital Hate said social media had played a “key role” in stoking the violence in Belfast.

At the same time, the organisation accused Musk of having amplified “anti-migrant narratives” spread by others and extended their reach to millions of users.

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Support from the German right

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came out in support of Musk in the row with ZDF.

Joining in on the debate, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel posted on X saying: “Defamation shouldn’t go without consequences. Don’t let them get away with it.”

Musk has been a vocal supporter of the AfD in recent years and has also backed other far-right parties in Europe.

The row is being further fuelled by editor-in-chief of the right-wing news portal, Julian Reichelt.

The former editor-in-chief of the daily tabloid Bild wrote on X: “Lerchenberg is a fortress of lies. ZDF simply invents the claim that Elon Musk ‘called for a hunt for migrants.’ In fact, Musk wrote on X: “Only by protesting REPEATEDLY and LOUDLY will there be any change!!” How much longer are we going to accept that this state forces us to pay for the propaganda lies it tells us? And how can it be that at ZDF heute there is constant lying, deception and manipulation with words and AI, without any personal consequences?’”

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In his statement in support of Musk, Reichelt also mentioned Germany’s public broadcasting licence fees, whose abolition the AfD has made one of its flagship policy points.

Additional sources • AFP

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