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How Trump’s 2026 Iran ‘war’ script echoes and twists the 2003 Iraq playbook

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How Trump’s 2026 Iran ‘war’ script echoes and twists the 2003 Iraq playbook

In January 2003, President George W Bush stood before the United States Congress to warn of a “grave danger” from a “dictator”, a former US client in the Middle East, armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Twenty-three years later, in the same chamber, President Donald Trump used his State of the Union address to paint a strikingly similar narrative: A rogue regime, a looming nuclear threat, and a ticking clock.

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In a dark twist of historical irony, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, who was armed to the teeth by the US in Iraq’s 1980-1988 war with the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran, became Washington’s public enemy number one, surpassing Osama bin Laden. Now, that label has been seemingly applied to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a key leader during that ruinous war against Iraq that left a million dead.

But while the “war script” sounds familiar, the geopolitical stage has shifted dramatically.

As Washington pivots from the neoconservatives’ “preemptive” doctrine of the Bush era to what experts are calling the “preventive maintenance” of the Trump era – following the June 2025 strikes on Iran in tandem with Israel’s attack in the 12-day war – questions are mounting about the intelligence, the endgame, and the alarming lack of checks and balances.

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The semiotics of fear: From clouds to tunnels

In 2003, the visual language of war was vertical: The fear of a “mushroom cloud” rising over US cities, or a biological weapon seeping into populated areas. Today, the fear has gone in the other direction: Purportedly deep underground.

“The administration is updating the visual dictionary of fear,” says Osama Abu Irshaid, a Washington-based political analyst. “They are exaggerating the nuclear threat exactly as the Bush administration did with the ‘smoking gun’ metaphor. But there is a key difference: In 2003, US intelligence was manipulated to align with the lie. In 2026, the intelligence assessments actually contradict Trump’s claims.”

While Trump asserted in his State of the Union address that Iran is “rebuilding” its nuclear programme to strike the US mainland, his own officials offer conflicting narratives. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt insisted Tuesday, parroting her boss, that the 2025 “Operation Midnight Hammer” had “obliterated” Iran’s facilities. Yet, days earlier, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff claimed Tehran was “a week away” from the bomb.

This “information chaos”, analysts argue, serves a specific purpose: Keeping the threat vague enough to justify perpetual military pressure.

“Bush benefitted from the post-9/11 anger to link Iraq to an existential threat,” Abu Irshaid told Al Jazeera. “Trump doesn’t have that. Iran hasn’t attacked the US homeland. So, he has to fabricate a direct threat, claiming their ballistic missiles can reach America – a claim unsupported by technical realities.”

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The regime change quagmire

Perhaps the most glaring contrast with 2003 is the internal coherence of the administration.

The Bush team – Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz – moved in ideological lockstep. Cheney famously predicted US troops would be “greeted as liberators”.

They were anything but. The made-for-television scene of a statue of Saddam Hussein being torn down in central Baghdad quickly gave way to sustained, organised fighting against the US occupation, heavy US troop losses, as well as sectarian bloodletting that forced Iraq onto the cusp of all-out civil war.

Bush declaring major combat operations over under a huge “Mission Accomplished” banner in May 2003 came back to haunt his administration and the US for years to come.

The Trump team of 2026 appears far more fractured, torn between “America First” isolationism and aggressive interventionism.

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  • The official line: Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have publicly stated the goal is not regime change. “We are not at war with Iran, we’re at war with Iran’s nuclear programme,” Vance said Sunday.
  • The president’s instinct: Trump contradicted them on social media, posting: “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!”

“The Neocons who hijacked policy under Bush have been weakened,” notes Abu Irshaid. “But they have been replaced by figures like Stephen Miller, who holds absolute loyalty to Trump and close ties to the Israeli right. Trump is driven by instinct, not strategy. He seeks the ‘victory’ that eluded his predecessors: The total hollowing out of Iran, whether through zero-enrichment surrender or collapse.”

The lonely superpower: Coercion over coalition

In 2003, Bush and United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair worked tirelessly to build a “Coalition of the Willing”. It was a diplomatic veneer, but it existed. Blair remains a much-loathed figure in the Middle East and in some quarters in the West for giving diplomatic cover to the Iraq debacle.

In 2026, the US is operating in stark isolation.

“Trump is not building a coalition; he is alienating allies,” Abu Irshaid explains. He points to a pattern of “extortion” extending from tariffs on the European Union to attempts to “buy” Greenland. “The Europeans see the coercion used against Iran and fear it could be turned against them. Unlike 2003, only Israel is fully on board.”

This isolation was highlighted when the UK reportedly refused to allow the US to use island bases for strikes on Iran, forcing B-2 bombers to fly 18-hour missions directly from the US mainland during the 2025 campaign.

The collapse of checks and balances

Following the damning intelligence failures and lies of the Iraq war, promises were made to strengthen congressional oversight. Two decades later, those guardrails appear to have vanished.

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Despite efforts by US Representatives Ro Khanna (a Democrat) and Thomas Massie (a Republican) to invoke a “discharge petition” to block an unauthorised war, the political reality is grim.

“The concept of checks and balances is facing a severe test,” warns Abu Irshaid. “The Republican Party is now effectively the party of Trump. The Supreme Court leans right. Trump is operating with expanded post-9/11 powers that allow for ‘limited strikes’ – strikes that can easily spiral into the open war he claims to avoid.”

With the administration citing “32,000” protesters killed by Tehran – a figure significantly higher than independent estimates, and which Iran dismissed as “big lies” on Wednesday – the moral groundwork for escalation is being laid, bypassing the need for United Nations resolutions or congressional approval.

As US and Iranian negotiators meet in Geneva for make-or-break talks under the shadow of last year’s “Operation Midnight Hammer”, the question remains: Are the two nations with decades of enmity boiling between them on the brink of a new deal, or the prelude to a war that could ignite the entire region in flames?

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AP honors Breanna Stewart as one of the top women’s college players during the Top 25 poll era

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AP honors Breanna Stewart as one of the top women’s college players during the Top 25 poll era

NEW YORK (AP) — The Associated Press honored Breanna Stewart before the New York Liberty’s game Tuesday night for being one of the greatest women’s college basketball players during the Top 25 poll era.

The AP celebrated the 50th anniversary of the women’s basketball poll last season. As part of it, a 13-member panel voted for the greatest college players of the past five decades. Stewart and Cheryl Miller were selected as the top players over the past 50 years.

The UConn great won four straight national championships and was selected as the Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four each time. She was presented with her trophy at center court by AP Global Sports Editor Josh Hoffner a few minutes before tipoff of the Liberty’s game against the Dallas Wings.

Miller accepted her trophy at the Final Four in Phoenix last April at the “The AP Top 25 Fan Poll Experience,” which was held at Arizona State’s First Amendment Forum in the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. Stewart couldn’t make that ceremony.

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AP WNBA: https://apnews.com/hub/wnba-basketball

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WATCH: Mike Waltz tells Cuban delegation ‘this is not Havana’ during heated UN speech

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WATCH: Mike Waltz tells Cuban delegation ‘this is not Havana’ during heated UN speech

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Cuba’s foreign minister accused the United States of committing an “act of war” by restricting fuel shipments to the island Tuesday, prompting U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz to deliver a forceful response blaming Cuba’s communist government for years of blackouts, repression and economic collapse.

The confrontation unfolded at the U.N. General Assembly one day after Cuba’s national electrical grid collapsed, leaving nearly 10 million people without power. It was the third nationwide grid failure this year and the eighth since October 2025, Reuters reported.

Cuban officials had restored electricity to parts of central Cuba and roughly one-third of Havana by Tuesday morning, although large areas remained offline or faced unstable service, according to Reuters.

CUBA PLUNGES INTO THIRD MAJOR BLACKOUT THIS YEAR AS POWER CRISIS WORSENS

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U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz holds up a photograph of jailed Cuban dissidents during a General Assembly debate on the U.S. embargo against Cuba at U.N. headquarters in New York on July 7, 2026. (UNTV)

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez told delegates that the Trump administration was carrying out a “multidimensional, non-conventional war” against Cuba that had grown “more cruel and ruthless in the last seven months.”

Rodríguez described U.S. efforts to restrict fuel deliveries as the imposition of “an energy collapse, equivalent to a naval blockade, which is an act of war,” according to a UNTV transcript.

Waltz rejected the claim that the United States had established a naval blockade around Cuba.

“There is no ring of Navy warships, U.S. Navy warships sitting around this island blocking trade or humanitarian aid going into Cuba,” Waltz said. “It’s fake. It’s false. It’s a lie. Period.”

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Waltz argued that the real embargo was the one Cuba’s government imposed on its own citizens.

HAVANA REGIME IN SUSPENSE AFTER CASTRO INDICTMENT WITH TRUMP PRESSURE ON, SAYS CUBAN-BORN GOP REP.

People walk on the street during a national electrical grid collapse, in Havana, Cuba, March 14, 2025. (Norlys Perez/Reuters)

“There’s a lot of talk today of an embargo. And indeed there is one,” he said. “It’s the embargo the Cuban regime mercilessly imposes on its own people decade after decade after decade.”

He called on Havana to “change your ways” and “turn the lights back on for your people,” while accusing Cuba’s leaders of ensuring that government compounds and propaganda operations had power even as families worried about spoiled food, hospitals losing electricity and phones running out of charge.

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Waltz noted that Tuesday’s meeting came days before the fifth anniversary of the July 11, 2021, demonstrations, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets amid shortages of food, medicine and electricity and demanded greater freedom.

As Waltz spoke, a member of the Cuban delegation pounded on the table, prompting the ambassador to respond.

“This is not Havana. This is the United States of America. This is the United Nations,” Waltz said. “And we will speak, we will be heard, and we will not be silenced like your own people. So, pound away.”

Waltz displayed photographs and read the names of several jailed Cuban artists, musicians and activists, including Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara, Maykel Castillo Pérez and Duannis Dabel León Taboada.

MILLIONS LOSE POWER ACROSS CUBA AS TRUMP SANCTIONS CONTINUE TO FUEL ONGOING ENERGY CRISIS

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Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez speaks during a news conference in Havana. (Reuters/Alexandre Meneghini)

“They’re not armed. They’re not violent,” Waltz said. “They carry flowers, and write poems and write music. And for that, the regime beats them, detains them and tries to break them.”

Waltz also said GAESA, Cuba’s military-run conglomerate, controls approximately half of the country’s economy and holds $18 billion in assets.

Reuters has reported that estimates of GAESA’s economic reach range from approximately 40% to 70%, while Cuban officials dispute the U.S. government’s $18 billion figure.

Waltz said that despite Cuba’s blockade claims, humanitarian assistance had recently arrived from countries including China, Russia, Mexico, Canada and Spain, as well as from the European Union and the United Nations.

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He also said the United States had provided more than $100 million in aid this year and approximately $500 million annually in commodities.

“The answer is simple: because blaming the United States is the only economic plan Havana has left,” Waltz said of Cuba’s decision to bring the issue before the General Assembly.

CUBA SAYS CIA CHIEF RATCLIFFE MET WITH OFFICIALS IN HAVANA AMID US TENSIONS

Protesters gather outside a Communist Party headquarters in Morón, Cuba, as a fire burns in the street during overnight unrest. Video obtained by Fox News Digital appeared to show demonstrators attempting to set fire to the building amid protests linked to widespread blackouts. (Reuters)

Before the wider debate, U.S. Representative for U.N. Management and Reform Jeffrey Bartos objected to reopening the agenda item and called for a vote on whether the proceedings should go forward.

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Bartos said the three-hour meeting would cost approximately $84,000, money he argued could instead provide food, emergency medical supplies and solar lanterns to Cuban families.

“Right now, Cuba is in darkness — again,” Bartos said. “I urge the Cuban regime: turn the lights back on for your people.”

Members of the Cuban delegation also interrupted Bartos several times by pounding on the table. Bartos at one point paused and responded, “Keep banging away. It’s very effective,” before continuing his remarks.

Bartos accused Havana of seeking “another propaganda clip” rather than solutions and pointed to what he said were more than 800 political prisoners held by the government.

Independent organizations have produced varying estimates. Human Rights Watch said in April that more than 700 people remained imprisoned for political reasons, while Prisoners Defenders reported more than 1,200 political prisoners in Cuba in the spring of 2026. Cuba denies holding anyone for political reasons.

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“That is the real Cuban embargo,” Bartos said. “It is the embargo the regime imposes on its own people: on speech, on faith, on enterprise, on dissent, on political rights and hope — and now, quite literally, on light.”

Rodríguez accused the U.S. delegation of offering “worn-out lies” and attempting to prevent the General Assembly from debating the effects of American policy.

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Jeff Bartos, U.S. Representative to the United Nations for Management and Reform, addresses a meeting of the Security Council at U.N. headquarters in New York City, Nov. 25, 2025. (Eduardo Munoz/Reuters)

Cuba’s electricity crisis has been driven by severe fuel shortages and an aging, poorly maintained power system that has struggled to meet demand. The Cuban government primarily blames U.S. restrictions, while Washington attributes the island’s broader economic crisis to communist economic policies, corruption and repression.

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Reuters contributed to this report.

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Russian missiles strike Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, for third time in a week

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Russian missiles strike Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, for third time in a week

DEVELOPING STORY,

The attacks have triggered fires in two districts of Kyiv, according to the city’s mayor.

Russian missile attacks have struck Kyiv in the third large-scale assault on the Ukrainian capital in less than a week.

Early on Wednesday, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a statement on Telegram that the Russian strikes had triggered fires in two districts of the city.

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So far, two people have been injured, with one requiring treatment in hospital.

Earlier, on Tuesday, a Russian missile strike hit the southern port of Odesa injuring ten people, regional governor Oleh Kiper said. Eight were being treated in hospital.

Moscow also launched a large-scale attack on Kyiv on Monday, killing at least 14 people and damaging at least a dozen buildings.

Both Russia and Ukraine have recently expanded their use of long-range weapons, including missiles, marking a new front in Moscow’s four-year war.

Ukraine has focused its attacks on Russian energy facilities to weaken its war efforts.

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Ukraine said on Tuesday that its drones attacked a dozen tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet” over the past two days that were delivering fuel to Moscow-occupied Crimea. Kyiv’s military said they had struck eight vessels subject to sanctions in the Sea of Azov, each with a deadweight of about 7,000 metric tonnes. Two more tankers were hit later in the day.

The Sea of Azov is a key supply route for Russian forces in Crimea and other occupied parts of southern Ukraine.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 – in a move that has been unrecognised internationally – eight years before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow has not publicly commented on this week’s attacks on Ukraine, which also included strikes on electrical substations, radar systems, and missile installations.

Attacks amid NATO Summit

The latest exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine comes amid NATO’s annual summit, which began on Tuesday. The military alliance’s leaders have gathered in Turkiye’s capital, Ankara, for the two-day conference, where defence spending and Russia’s war on Ukraine are under discussion.

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NATO is expected to pledge further military support for Ukraine, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges the alliance to step up aid for the country’s air defences following the deadly escalation of Russian attacks on Kyiv.

Zelenskyy – who has renewed his call for Ukraine to be allowed to join the alliance – wrote on social media on Tuesday that he had signed new agreements with Estonia, the Netherlands, and Denmark in Ankara.

The deals create “new opportunities for joint production, the development of innovative defense technologies, systematic exchange of expertise, and the export of Ukrainian battlefield-proven solutions”, he said.

Further agreements are expected with Germany, Norway, Finland, and Canada.

US President Donald Trump is also expected to meet Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the summit on Wednesday, having spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of the NATO gathering.

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Asked about Russia’s war in Ukraine, Trump said he hoped it would be settled “soon”.

“I think they both want to make a deal,” Trump said.

“It’s too bad it took so long, but I think something’s going to come out.”

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