On Election Day, polling stations are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and the first initial results should be posted online about 9:15 p.m., based on prior schedules.

In the state’s closest races, a winner won’t become apparent until Nov. 20, when the state tabulates the results of its ranked choice elections. 

The closest races likely will include the state’s U.S. House election and the ballot measure seeking to repeal ranked choice voting.  

Carol Beecher, director of the Division of Elections, said by email that results updates will likely come on a similar schedule to 2022. That year, the first results were posted at 9:11 p.m. and were updated until shortly after 2 a.m. the following morning. Election Day results were again updated about 4 p.m. the following day.

Election Day results will include ballots cast on Election Day, plus early votes (those given at polling stations where voters present an ID) cast by the end of the day on Halloween. 

Some absentee votes (usually sent by mail and subject to later ID verification) will also be included, but we won’t know how many — that’s determined by how quickly the state review board operates.

If a mailed-in absentee ballot was postmarked on or before Election Day, state law allows it to be counted if it arrives on or before Nov. 15 (if mailed from within the United States) or Nov. 20 (if mailed internationally). Historically, most absentee ballots arrive within one week of Election Day.

As more absentee ballots arrive and are counted, the Division of Elections is scheduled to update election results on Nov. 12 and Nov. 15. 

Those updates will only include voters’ first choices. If a race has three or more candidates and none of them have at least 50% of the first-choice votes, the Division of Elections will use ranked choice voting to determine a winner.

On Nov. 20, the last-place finisher will be eliminated, and voters who picked that person will have their votes go to their second choice. If they don’t have a second choice, their ballot will be “exhausted” and not count for any of the remaining candidates.

The elimination process will continue until only two candidates remain, and the person with the greatest number of votes will be declared the winner.

The Division of Elections could offer an immediate ranked choice tabulation and update it as more ballots arrive, but when ranked choice voting was established by voters in 2020, the division’s then-director said that might be confusing for voters, and as a matter of policy, the division does only one tabulation.

U.S. House race result is likely to wait

That wait for tabulation could mean a wait for Alaska’s close-run U.S. House election, where Democratic incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola is being challenged by Republican Nick Begich, Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and imprisoned, out-of-state Democratic candidate Eric Hafner.

In the August primary election, Peltola had more than 50% of the vote, but in the months since then, polling indicates that the race has tightened, with Begich’s odds helped by the fact that two trailing Republicans — including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom — withdrew after the primary.

Howe and Hafner aren’t expected to receive many first choice votes, but if the margin between Peltola and Begich remains small, their supporters’ second-choice votes could be decisive once tabulation takes place.

Eight candidates in the presidential election

Alaska’s local elections have no more than four listed candidates, but the presidential election has eight, which makes it possible that an official winner won’t be declared until Nov. 20.

Republicans have won every presidential election in Alaska since 1964, and Republican candidate Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win Alaska this year as well. 

With eight candidates in the race, it’s possible that Trump fails to exceed 50% of the first-choice votes, leaving the race to be decided until the ranked choice tabulation.

Ballot measures and judges could be decided early

Alaska’s two ballot measures aren’t subject to ranked choice tabulation — they’re a simple up or down vote, which means that we don’t have to wait until the Nov. 20 tabulation day.

Preelection polling presented to the Alaska Chamber of Commerce in October showed that Ballot Measure 1 — which would increase the state’s minimum wage, mandate sick leave and ban mandatory political and religious meetings — has a significant lead among voters. It’s expected to pass easily, and Election Day results will reveal whether that expectation holds true.

Ballot Measure 2 — which would repeal the state’s ranked choice general election and open primary election system — is too close to predict, polling indicates. Polling earlier in the summer found that “yes” to the repeal was ahead, but that’s changed, with “no” having a lead more recently. It’s still within the margin of error, however.

While it’s possible that Election Day results will give yes or no a definitive lead, it’s more likely that we won’t know for certain until about a week after Election Day, when more absentee ballots are counted.

Nineteen judges are also on the ballot statewide. Voters can choose to vote yes or no on whether to retain them. It’s extraordinarily unusual for voters to reject a judge, but there is a campaign to evict one of them, Adolf Zeman of Anchorage, for a legal decision on the state’s correspondence school program. No polling is available for that election, which is one to watch on Election Day.

Will polls operate correctly?

The Alaska Division of Elections has struggled this year with a variety of missteps, including the failure to open all polling stations on time during the primary election.

Two years ago, ballots from a handful of remote towns failed to reach Juneau after Election Day, meaning that they weren’t counted in the ranked choice tally. Only voters’ first choices were considered.

Ahead of the general election, there’s already been one significant problem: Absentee voters in three Southwest Alaska towns received the wrong ballots, and more than 90 had to revote as a result.

Will Election Day voters differ from advance voters?

Four years ago, 361,400 Alaskans voted in the 2020 presidential election. This year, Michael McDonald, a Florida-based political scientist and an expert in voter turnout, expects slightly lower turnout and about 355,000 votes cast.

Through Friday, 95,415 people had already cast ballots, representing more than a quarter of the expected total turnout. Early voting — done in person, with IDs verified on site — has set an all-time record.

Early and absentee voters combined have been disproportionately Republican. Altogether, more than 33% of advance votes through Nov. 1 came from registered Republicans. Statewide, Republicans make up just under 24% of registered voters. 

Registered Democrats have also been voting in unusually large numbers — they represent over 12% of registered voters but more than 17% of votes cast so far.

Election Day results will determine whether those figures represent a larger trend or not.

Conservative Republicans are likely to gain in the state Senate — but how much?

The Alaska Senate is governed by a 17-member supermajority coalition that includes nine Democrats and eight Republicans. 

One member of that coalition, Sen. Click Bishop, R-Fairbanks, isn’t running for re-election, and his seat is likely to be taken by either Republican Mike Cronk or independent Savannah Fletcher. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Bert Williams is also running.

Cronk is inclined toward a Republican-led majority, rather than the current balanced coalition, while Fletcher favors the status quo. Cronk beat Fletcher by a small margin in the August primary.

In Eagle River, coalition Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick is being challenged by Republican Jared Goecker, who also prefers a Republican-first option in the Senate. If Goecker fails to reach 50% of first-choice votes, the second-choice votes of those who prefer Democratic candidate Lee Hammermeister — expected to finish third — could push Merrick over the top.

On the Kenai Peninsula, current coalition member Sen. Jesse Bjorkman, R-Nikiski, is being challenged by Republican Ben Carpenter, who also prefers a Republican-led majority. Bjorkman led Carpenter in the August primary. A Democrat is running as a third option, and Democratic voters who prefer Bjorkman as a second option could be decisive.

If they’re close, any or all of those three races could be decided on tabulation day. A fourth race could be decided on Election Day. Sen. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, is being challenged by Republican Leslie Hajdukovich. Because there are only two candidates, ranked choice voting won’t be involved, unless write-in votes push the first-place finisher below 50%.

Control of the Alaska House could flip or solidify after Tuesday

The Alaska House currently has 22 Republicans, 13 Democrats and five independents. 

Thomas Baker, who changed his party affiliation to independent after the legislative session, is still listed as a Republican on the Legislature’s website.

Those legislators are split into a predominantly Republican coalition majority and a predominantly Democratic coalition minority. 

Because two Republicans aren’t a member of the majority, Republicans depend on the support of three non-Republicans from rural Alaska districts in order to maintain control.

If mainstream Republicans win contested elections on Tuesday, they could achieve unilateral control. If independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans win, it’s possible that the predominantly Democratic coalition will take back the majority it had for six years until 2022.

In Ketchikan, incumbent independent Rep. Dan Ortiz isn’t running for reelection and is likely to be replaced by Republican Jeremy Bynum, who had just short of 49% of the vote in the August primary election.

That Republican gain could be balanced on the North Slope, where Baker has faced a difficult reelection campaign against two Democrats running against him. Baker had just 29% of the vote in a three-way August primary election.

Republicans are trying to oust Rep. David Eastman, R-Wasilla, with a more mainstream challenger, Republican Jubilee Underwood. Eastman has been excluded from the House majority, and if Underwood were to replace him, it would net a seat for the current majority.

Conversely, Rep. Craig Johnson, R-Anchorage and a member of the current majority, is facing a tough election against coalition-minded Republican Chuck Kopp, a former legislator seeking a return to the House. Kopp beat Johnson by more than 20 percentage points in the August primary, and the two are repeating that race on Tuesday.

Several other races are effectively head-to-head tossups entering Tuesday. In Fairbanks, Democratic Rep. Maxine Dibert is being challenged by Republican Bart LeBon, a former representative whom Dibert defeated two years ago by a small margin. 

In Anchorage, Democrat Ted Eischeid beat incumbent Republican Rep. Stanley Wright by 35 votes out of more than 1,200 cast in the August primary after losing to Wright by 72 votes of 3,772 cast in 2022; they’re rerunning their race on Tuesday.

Also in Anchorage, Republican Rep. Julie Coulombe beat independent challenger Walter Featherly by just 121 votes out of more than 3,200 cast in the August primary, and both have been campaigning hard ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

In South Anchorage, independent Ky Holland won a four-way August primary, but Republicans have now consolidated around Republican candidate Lucy Bauer, setting up a head-to-head race to replace incumbent Republican Rep. Laddie Shaw, who is not seeking reelection.

Other potentially close races include more than two candidates and could require ranked choice tabulation to resolve:

• House District 6 in Homer, where Republican Rep. Sarah Vance is being challenged by independent Brent Johnson and Republican Dawson Slaughter
• Anchorage’s House District 15, where Republican Mia Costello is seeking to return to the state House to fill a seat vacated by Republican Rep. Tom McKay. Democrat Denny Wells is challenging her but could have his odds spoiled by perennial candidate Dustin Darden, who is running as a Democrat.
• Republican Rebecca Schwanke is likely the favorite to replace Cronk in Interior Alaska’s House District 36, but she faces three opponents — Democrat Brandon Kowalski, fellow Republican Pam Goode, and Libertarian James Fields, who has suspended his campaign.