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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer

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1 year ago

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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer


John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com

We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.

Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.

Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?

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Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.

Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.

Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).

The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”

But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.

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Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.

State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?

Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.

As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.

But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.

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State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.

There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?

I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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Pennsylvania

Pa. provisional ballot rejection rates dropped 11% after envelopes were redesigned

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10 hours ago

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January 4, 2026

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Pa. provisional ballot rejection rates dropped 11% after envelopes were redesigned


Counties that used a redesigned envelope for their provisional ballots in 2025 saw rejection rates drop by 11.3% when compared to last year, according to Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt.

The new look adopted by 85% of counties indicates which fields are for voters and which are for election workers, and highlights where voters must sign. The drop from 4.96% to 4.4% doesn’t include the nine counties that didn’t use the new design or Chester County, which had a printing error in November that omitted third-party and independent voters from pollbooks.

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The 11.3% figure is adjusted for voter turnout. More than 7 million Pennsylvanians voted in 2024 – which was a presidential election year – compared to 3.6 million in the 2025 off-year election.

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“Our goal remains ensuring every registered voter in our Commonwealth can cast their vote and have it counted in every election,” Schmidt said in a release. “As with the changes to mail ballot materials two years ago, these improvements resulted in more registered voters being able to make their voices heard in November’s election.”

Two years ago, the state conducted a voter education initiative and required counties to preprint the full year of mail ballot return envelopes. Mail ballot instructions and online application materials were also redesigned.

Five counties — Philadelphia, Berks, Butler, Mercer and Greene — worked with the state to craft the new envelopes to be more user friendly for both voters and poll workers.

“The purpose in leading the redesign effort was to reduce errors and have more votes counted, which is exactly what we achieved,” said Omar Sabir, the chair of the Philadelphia City Commissioners. “An 11% decrease in ballot rejections shows the real impact that thoughtful design can have on protecting voting rights across Pennsylvania.”

The nine counties opting out of the new design were: Bedford, Bradford, Crawford, Franklin, Huntingdon, Lackawanna, Lycoming, Monroe and Wyoming.

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Pennsylvania Capital-Star is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Pennsylvania Capital-Star maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Tim Lambert for questions: info@penncapital-star.com.



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Pennsylvania

Anti-war protesters gather in East Liberty as McCormick, Fetterman laud U.S. action in Venezuela, Lee and Deluzio denounce attack

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22 hours ago

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January 4, 2026

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Anti-war protesters gather in East Liberty as McCormick, Fetterman laud U.S. action in Venezuela, Lee and Deluzio denounce attack






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Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania Lottery Pick 2 Day, Pick 2 Evening results for Dec. 28, 2025

Published

7 days ago

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December 29, 2025

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The Pennsylvania Lottery offers several draw games for those aiming to win big. Here’s a look at Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025 results for each game:

Winning Pick 2 numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

Day: 4-0, Wild: 1

Evening: 3-2, Wild: 3

Check Pick 2 payouts and previous drawings here.

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Winning Pick 3 numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

Day: 5-0-2, Wild: 1

Evening: 4-2-2, Wild: 3

Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Pick 4 numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

Day: 3-7-8-3, Wild: 1

Evening: 4-9-2-2, Wild: 3

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Check Pick 4 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Pick 5 numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

Day: 8-3-3-5-3, Wild: 1

Evening: 5-7-4-1-7, Wild: 3

Check Pick 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Cash4Life numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

09-15-24-34-53, Cash Ball: 04

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Check Cash4Life payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Cash 5 numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

04-06-18-20-31

Check Cash 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Treasure Hunt numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

04-05-10-26-28

Check Treasure Hunt payouts and previous drawings here.

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Winning Match 6 Lotto numbers from Dec. 28 drawing

07-08-16-18-27-37

Check Match 6 Lotto payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

Are you a winner? Here’s how to claim your lottery prize

  • Sign the Ticket: Ensure your ticket has your signature, name, address and phone number on the back.
  • Prizes up to $600: Claim at any PA Lottery retailer or by mail: Pennsylvania Lottery, ATTN: CLAIMS, PO BOX 8671, Harrisburg, PA 17105.
  • Prizes from $600 to $2,500: Use a Claim Form to claim at a retailer or by mail: Pennsylvania Lottery, ATTN: CLAIMS, PO BOX 8671, Harrisburg, PA 17105.
  • Prizes over $2,500: Mail your signed ticket with a Claim Form or in person at a Lottery Area Office (9 a.m. to 4 p.m.).

Lottery Headquarters is currently not open to the public. Visit the PA Lottery website for other office locations near you.

When are the Pennsylvania Lottery drawings held?

  • Powerball: 10:59 p.m. Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
  • Mega Millions: 11 p.m. Tuesday and Friday.
  • Pick 2, 3, 4, 5: 1:35 p.m. and 6:59 p.m. daily.
  • Cash4Life: 9 p.m. daily.
  • Cash 5: 6:59 p.m. daily.
  • Treasure Hunt: 1:35 p.m. daily.
  • Match 6 Lotto: 6:59 p.m. Monday and Thursday.
  • Powerball Double Play: 10:59 p.m. Monday, Wednesday, Saturday.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Pennsylvania editor. You can send feedback using this form.



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