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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer

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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer


John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com

We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.

Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.

Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?

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Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.

Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.

Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).

The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”

But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.

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Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.

State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?

Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.

As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.

But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.

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State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.

There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?

I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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Pennsylvania

How Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s removal is impacting Pennsylvania

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How Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s removal is impacting Pennsylvania






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Video of children in staged hockey fight in Pennsylvania prompts vow of disciplinary action

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Video of children in staged hockey fight in Pennsylvania prompts vow of disciplinary action


Video of youth hockey players brawling in a staged fight at a minor league game in Pennsylvania has prompted officials to promise “appropriate disciplinary action” against organizers.

The wild scene broke out Saturday during intermission at the Hershey Bears-Cleveland Monsters AHL game at Giant Center in Hershey, about 15 miles east of Harrisburg.

Viral video of the incident showed several players — including a goaltender — in on the fake fracas, dropping gloves, throwing punches, cross checking and hitting from behind.

Players, who are 8 and younger from the Central Penn Panthers Youth Ice Hockey Club, brawled with no adults coming on to the ice to break up the action.

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The Atlantic Amateur Hockey Association promised to take action against both adults and the players.

“We are aware of a staged fight that occurred last night at the Hershey Bears (AHL) game involving a Pennsylvania 8U team,” the Atlantic Amateur Hockey Association said in a statement on Sunday.

“Affiliate, league and club officials are investigating the matter and appropriate disciplinary action will be taken against those players and team officials involved with the staged fight.”

A representative for the Hershey Bears, an affiliate of the Washington Capitals, could not be immediately reached by NBC News for comment on Monday.

“The safety, well-being, and positive experience of all participants— especially our young players — are of the utmost importance,” the Central Penn Panthers said in statement on Sunday.

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“We are currently conducting an internal review to fully understand the circumstances surrounding the incident. This review will include gathering information from all relevant parties and assessing the situation thoroughly and responsibly,” the Panthers said. “At this time, we believe it is important to allow this process to take place before drawing conclusions. “



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Were ICE agents at the Pa. Farm show? Here’s what officials say

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Were ICE agents at the Pa. Farm show? Here’s what officials say


Online speculation about the presence of U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents at the 2026 Pennsylvania Farm Show has sparked a growing spread of misinformation.

Multiple posts on Facebook and TikTok have stated that undercover or plain clothes ICE agents are walking around the farm show and staying at local hotels without naming a source for their information.

“These rumors are false,” Pa. Department of Agriculture Press Secretary Shannon Powers told PennLive on Sunday. “The Department of Agriculture has not found any ICE personnel working on or near the Farm Show complex.”

A PennLive reporter walking around the complex on Saturday did not see any ICE agents.

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Powers also said ICE has not rented or reserved event space or an exhibit booth in the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex for the Farm Show.

There are law enforcement personnel on the property, but they are focused on safety and security of Farm Show visitors, Powers said.

Pennsylvania State Police troopers are stationed and patrolling the Farm Show complex and parking lots to keep visitors safe, working in conjunction with the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency, Farm Show Security, Capitol Police, local municipal police departments and Harrisburg Fire Police.

Discourse about ICE has ramped up since Renee Good was fatally shot by an ICE officer in Minneapolis last week. Good was a 37-year-old mother of three.

In the last several months, the Department of Homeland Security has heavily increased immigration enforcement, characterized by arrests of undocumented immigrants, a social media campaign and crackdowns on protests.

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