Pennsylvania
Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer
John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com
We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.
Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.
Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?
Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.
Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.
Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).
The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”
But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.
Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.
State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?
Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.
As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.
But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.
State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.
There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?
I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.
John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com
Pennsylvania
Officials react to Pennsylvania abortion ruling, Medicaid ban struck down
A Pennsylvania court ruling is reshaping abortion access in the state, striking down a decades-old ban on using Medicaid to pay for abortions and declaring that the Pennsylvania Constitution guarantees a right to abortion.
The decision came Monday from the state’s Commonwealth Court. In a 4-3 vote, judges ruled in favor of abortion rights in Pennsylvania and invalidated the state’s restriction on Medicaid-funded abortions.
Local abortion-rights advocates praised the ruling as a major step toward protecting access for low-income residents. Adrienne Daily, co-founder of Johnstown for Choice, said, “Everybody should have the right to that. If you restrict the coverage, you’re obviously discriminating against those that have lower income.”
Opponents of abortion rights called the decision a dramatic expansion of the court’s power and warned it will force taxpayers to pay for procedures they oppose. Michael Geer, president of the Pennsylvania Family Institute, said, “Taxpayers now in Pennsylvania will have no choice under this court ruling to fund abortions. And there are many, many millions of Pennsylvanians who think abortion is wrong. It’s the taking of an innocent human life and to force taxpayers who conscientiously object to abortion to then fund it is just plain wrong.”
Abortion-rights advocates pushed back, arguing abortion access is healthcare and a personal decision. Daily said, “This is a family issue. This is a personal issue. This is a bodily autonomy issue.”
Pro-life leaders also warned the ruling could have broader implications for other abortion-related laws. Geer said, “It is sweeping and there’s no question it’s judicial overreach.” He added, “If this ruling stands, it will invite attacks on every remaining pro-life safeguard that has been put into law by lawmakers at the behest to the people of Pennsylvania over decades.”
The case could still be appealed to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. That decision lies with Republican Attorney General Dave Sunday. His office has not provided a response, but the Associated Press reported a spokesperson said the office is reviewing the decision and did not say whether it will appeal.
Pennsylvania
Wu-Tang Clan member opens clothing store in Pennsylvania
Johnstown, Pa. (WJAC) — The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame just released this year’s list of inductees, and a new clothing store just opened in the Johnstown Galleria.
What do these two things have in common?
If you grew up listening to 90’s hip-hop, then you’re probably familiar with the Wu-Tang Clan.
Wu-Tang Clan member opens clothing store in Pennsylvania (WJAC)
They said, “We’re in the building right now, we’re out in Johnstown making it happen, fashion and rapping, and Wu-Tang, you already know Wu-Tang is the witty, unpredictable talent and natural game. So, it’s all grassroots with us, man. We do everything from scratch.”
They’re being inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame this year, and Darryl Hill, aka Cappadonna, and manager Al “Heck” Felder are opening the Pillage, a clothing store in the Johnstown Galleria, selling apparel with a purpose.
Cappadonna said, “‘Cappadonna,’ that stands for ‘Consider All Poor People Acceptable, Don’t Oppress Nor Neglect Anyone,’ and we stand on that.”
They were introduced to mall owner Leo Karruli through Mustafa Curry, a childhood friend from New York, who owns a store on Main Street in Johnstown.
Heck said, “BK Styles, I’ve got to give a shout out to my boy, Mustafa. They’ve got some apparel down there, too. We’re all over. We’re spreading the word and we’re spreading the love.”
Wu-Tang Clan member opens clothing store in Pennsylvania (WJAC)
Their other clothing line, Angry Elephant, promotes being good stewards of the Earth, with a portion of the proceeds protecting the animals from poachers.
They said they believe in always putting God and family first.
Cappadonna said, “When you recognize the God in us, then you can see the God in you.”
They said they want kids to know that violence is not the answer, and it doesn’t cost anything to be kind.
Cappadonna said, “We just want to say that it’s nice to be important, but it’s even more important to be nice.”
Pennsylvania
Mother, 6 children die in Central Pennsylvania house explosion, state police say
A mother and her six children died when their Central Pennsylvania home exploded and caught on fire Sunday morning, state police said.
The explosion and fire happened at around 8:30 a.m. at a home on Long Run Road in Lamar Township, Clinton County, which is roughly 35 miles from State College. Crews arrived on the scene and found the home fully engulfed in flames, with the mother and her six children trapped.
State police identified the 34-year-old woman who died in the fire as Sarah B. Stolzfus. Her 11-year-old son, 10-year-old son, 8-year-old daughter, 6-year-old daughter, 5-year-old son and 3-year-old son also died in the blaze, according to state police.
A propane leak inside the house might’ve caused the explosion and fire, state police said. Propane tanks outside the home did not explode or contribute to the fire, according to state police.
The explosion and fire are under investigation by state police.
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