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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer

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Finally! It’s time for Pennsylvania’s `only poll that counts’ | John Baer


John Baer is the Keystone State’s most recognized government and politics columnist. Sean Simmers | ssimmers@pennlive.com

We’re down to days and still don’t know who wins the state most say is most needed to win White House. It’s that kind of year.

Not because candidates are so good. But because neither one’s convincing a majority of Pennsylvanians that they’re good enough. That’s just how we see it. And have seen it.

Check this out. I looked at 70 Pennsylvania polls on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump (and, yeah, and I know you’re thinking, geez, get a life). But guess how many times either got above 50%?

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Remember, this is in the oh-so-split Keystone State, in polling from the start of the race — right after President Biden got out and backed Harris in July — to the dwindling days of the campaign.

Okay, you don’t have to guess. I’ll tell you. Harris topped 50% just four times. And not by much. She hit 51% in a Bloomberg Poll in August. Then, in September, 52% in a Boston-based MassINC poll, 51% in another Bloomberg Poll, and 51% in a Quinnipiac Poll.

Trump? Topped 50% only once. He got 51% in a September AtlasIntel Poll out of Sao Paulo, Brazil (I don’t know, maybe somebody said, `Just find me a good poll. I don’t care if it’s in South America!’).

The latest of the 70 polls were just before Trump’s Madison Square Garden “lovefest” last Sunday. So, they don’t reflect any impact a speaker calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” has on the state’s 620,000 eligible Hispanic voters. Nor any effect of Joe `that’s-not-what-I-meant’ Biden then calling Trump supporters “garbage.”

But of the 70 polls, all showing a tight race, 20 were ties, Harris led slightly in 32, Trump led slightly in 18. And the average of the last seven had Trump up, 48.1% to 47.7%. A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows Trump 47%, Harris 46%. Or, as we say in the biz, a virtual tie possibly trending toward Trump.

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Now what? Well, now it’s what every election’s about, turnout. Who votes? How much of each candidate’s reliable base shows up? And what about the intangible, slippery, maybe-not-even-voting undecideds? I mean this in the sense of who votes Tuesday and by mail: 1.3 million mail-ins are in; about 2 million mail ballots were requested.

State polls point to candidates’ strongest support: for Harris, women, Blacks and college-educated voters aged 30-to-44 in Philadelphia and Allegheny County; for Trump, white men without college degrees, aged 45-to-64 in central and western counties. Generalizations, I know, and maybe over-stated. But what in politics isn’t?

Plus, this is a squirrely race. And speaking of squirrely, national Democratic guru James Carville, who made his bones in Pennsylvania, wrote in The New York Times he’s “certain” Harris wins. Meanwhile, national polling expert Nate Silver wrote in The Times on the same day he has a “hunch” Trump wins.

As for me, I’m not certain of anything. But I have a hunch. Since this is Pennsylvania – Land of Low Expectations — things won’t go smoothly. I hope I’m wrong.

But there’s mail-in ballot processing, which, thanks to the feeble minds writing our state laws, can’t begin until Election Day. That flaw, left unfixed by our Legislature for four years, could cause conspiracy-inspiring delayed results, as it did in 2020.

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State officials expect fewer mail-ins this year (no pandemic), and note county election boards got state grants for more personnel and new equipment to speed the process. We’ll see.

There’s also litigation over improperly filed mail-ins. The state Supreme Court recently ruled voters whose mail-ins are rejected for errors such as being undated can cast “provisional” ballots which can still count. State and national Republicans sought a stay of that court order pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

And this stuff we know about. Who knows what else lurks out there?

I keep wondering how history judges this election. U.S. voters chose wisely? U.S. voters chose poorly? Seems it’s up to Pennsylvania voters to write that history.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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Federal government sues Pennsylvania, others over SNAP data

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Federal government sues Pennsylvania, others over SNAP data


(WHTM) — Pennsylvania is one of four states facing a lawsuit from the federal government over SNAP applicant data.

The U.S. Department of Justice filed suit against Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Michigan, and Minnesota. They are seeking the last five years of SNAP applicant data in the respective states.

The DOJ alleges that the four states refused to turn over data to the U.S. Department of Agriculture “so that USDA could ensure that states are properly administering and enforcing their determinations of residents’ eligibility.”

“The American people deserve a government that is transparent about how it spends their hard-earned tax dollars,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “These four states are thwarting USDA’s efforts to ensure that the billions of dollars in SNAP benefits they distribute every year are not lost to fraud.”

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“Stopping the rampant theft of taxpayer money demands a whole-of-government response, including strong participation at the state level,” said Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald of the Justice Department’s National Fraud Enforcement Division. “These states are happy to take hundreds of millions of federal tax dollars—much of which is exploited by fraudsters—but want zero transparency over how those tax dollars are spent.”

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The Department of Justice said 28 states promptly provided data and such indicated “there are billions of dollars per year in SNAP funds going to overpayments and fraud.”

The USDA has been seeking data for the past year or so, leading to a legal battle over concerns about how the data would be used.



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House Republicans stall activity, Pennsylvania Rep. Meuser calls tactics ‘foolish’ | Fox Business Video

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House Republicans stall activity, Pennsylvania Rep. Meuser calls tactics ‘foolish’ | Fox Business Video


House Speaker Mike Johnson sent representatives home early as hardline Republicans stalled floor activities, demanding action on the SAVE America Act. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, urging House Republicans to unify and avoid giving power to Democrats. Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) labels the stalling tactics ‘foolish,’ emphasizing the need for legislative progress and appropriations.



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Measles detected in two more counties in Pennsylvania as health department recommends early vaccination

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Measles detected in two more counties in Pennsylvania as health department recommends early vaccination


Pennsylvania health officials have now detected measles cases in York and Northumberland Counties as cases in Lancaster County, the center of an ongoing outbreak, continued to rise.

And the state health department is now recommending early measles vaccinations for infants beginning at 6 months in affected areas in an effort to protect them against the spread of the highly contagious disease, which is particularly risky for young children. The same precautions should be taken by families with infants traveling to these areas.

Six Pennsylvania counties have now seen measles cases since an outbreak was first confirmed in Lebanon County in April. In all, the state has reported 81 measles cases across eight counties in 2026, more than five times the cases reported in 2025.

State health officials said it was too early to tell how the latest cases in York and Northumberland Counties are connected to others in the region, but that contact tracing investigations are continuing. All cases were among people who had not received at least two doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) or whose vaccination status was unclear.

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As of Wednesday, six cases had been confirmed in Northumberland County, to the north of Dauphin County, and one case had been detected in York County, along Lancaster’s western border.

Lebanon County has reported 20 cases and Dauphin and Berks Counties have reported two cases each.

Lancaster County has seen 38 cases of measles since late April, with health officials confirming seven cases in the last two weeks. The area was at the center of a prior measles outbreak in January, when state health officials confirmed eight cases in Lancaster County and an additional four between Chester and Montgomery Counties.

Vaccination rates among kindergarteners have decreased across Pennsylvania in recent years, and some counties affected in the current outbreak have particularly low rates, including Lancaster, where about 88.5% of kindergarten students are vaccinated. Health experts say that 95% of a community must be vaccinated to prevent the spread of the disease.

Health officials have been conducting contact tracing to detect as many cases as possible. In the current outbreak, they have twice warned Lancaster residents that they could have been exposed to measles.

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Shoppers and employees at a local Kohl’s were potentially exposed to the virus over four days after a staffer tested positive in late May, LancasterOnline reported. And a person with measles visited the Lancaster County Courthouse on June 3.

But doctors in Lancaster County say they fear some measles cases are going unreported, either because patients don’t understand the importance of tracking measles cases or because they fear repercussions.

No cases have been confirmed in the Philadelphia region during this outbreak. But Delaware County health officials said last week that they had detected measles in two wastewater samples, indicating that someone with measles had used a bathroom connected to the county’s public water supply. It was unclear if that person lived in the county or was passing through.

Early vaccination recommended

On Wednesday, a statewide health alert urged physicians to accelerate vaccination schedules to protect children against measles. Officials had said they were considering the measure earlier this month as cases continued to rise.

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Measles can infect nine in 10 unvaccinated people who are exposed to it, and can linger in the air for up to two hours and incubate in patients for three weeks. The disease typically presents with a fever and a rash but can cause brain inflammation and pneumonia in serious cases.

Typically, children receive the first of two MMR vaccines at 1 year old, then a second between 4 and 6 years old.

But children as young as 6 months can receive an additional “dose zero” to protect them from the disease amid an outbreak. In its alert, the state health department said parents should vaccinate infants between 6 and 11 months with the “dose zero” if they live in affected areas or if they’re planning to travel there.

Those children should then receive additional MMR doses at 12 to 15 months and 4 to 6 years.

This “dose zero” is less effective than doses given at 1 year old, officials cautioned. But it’s 58% effective against measles when given at 6 to 8 months, and 83% effective when administered at 9 to 11 months.

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“Early MMR vaccination is safe and provides modest protection when measles is spreading,” officials wrote in the alert.

Children older than 12 months who haven’t been vaccinated should get an MMR dose immediately, and a second 28 days later, health officials said. Unvaccinated adults, or those without evidence of immunity, should also get two MMR doses.

And anyone who has received one dose of the MMR vaccine in the past should get a second at least 28 days after their first, officials said.

Usually, children who received a first dose at around 12 months wait to get their second dose until they’re 4 to 6 years old. But in an outbreak situation, those children should get their second doses early — at least 28 days after their first shot.

Adults born before 1957 are typically considered immune, but healthcare workers in that age group who don’t have lab evidence of immunity or prior infection should consider getting vaccinated, state officials said.

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Adults who received an inactivated measles vaccine between 1963 and 1967 are considered unvaccinated during an outbreak, and should also get two doses of the current MMR vaccine.

Pregnant people, people with severely weakened immune systems, and people who have a history of experiencing severe allergic reactions, like anaphylaxis, to a vaccine ingredient or to a previous dose of MMR cannot receive the vaccine.



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