Connect with us

Sports

College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

Published

on

College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Utah back in, USC hangs on in bracket

On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

Advertisement

As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Stock up

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.

My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

What I think I know about Penn State as Big Ten play starts

Advertisement

Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)

Boise State

Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

From Italy to Boise State, how RB Ashton Jeanty became a scoring sensation

Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.

Advertisement

It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Michigan finds the right formula: Final thoughts on a classic win over USC

LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.

My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

LSU star LB Harold Perkins out for season with torn ACL: Source

Advertisement

(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Sports

‘Demon’ Finn Balor settles score with Dominik Mysterio at WrestleMania 42

Published

on

‘Demon’ Finn Balor settles score with Dominik Mysterio at WrestleMania 42

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Finn Balor and Dominik Mysterio were once brothers in arms in the Judgment Day. The two helped the faction run “Monday Night Raw” for several years.

As championships and opportunities came and went, the rift between Balor and Mysterio grew. It came to a head when Balor caused Mysterio to lose the Intercontinental Championship to Penta. Balor leaving the Judgment Day left Mysterio and Liv Morgan as the leaders with JD McDonagh, Raquel Rodriguez and Roxanne Perez sticking around.

Finn Balor is introduced before his match against Dominik Mysterio during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Advertisement

The latter four chose to ride with Mysterio and attacked Balor on one episode of Raw.

The bitter war led to a match Sunday night at WrestleMania 42. To make matters more interesting, Raw General Manager Adam Pearce made the match a street fight hours before the show was set to begin.

Balor had vowed to bring the “Demon” out and he certainly did.

JACOB FATU PUTS DREW MCINTYRE IN THE ‘REAR VIEW’ IN UNSANCTIONED MATCH AT WRESTLEMANIA 42

Finn Balor is introduced before his match against Dominik Mysterio during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Advertisement

Balor made his way to the ring in his “Demon” gear, dripping with red and black paint. Mysterio was in a mask with other Mysterio supporters.

The two then proceeded to beat the crud out of each other.

Mysterio wrapped Balor’s head in between a chair and hit a 619 on him. He tried to pin Balor, but to no avail. At another point, Mysterio tossed Balor through a table set up in the corner.

As many have learned, it’s hard to keep your demons down. Mysterio learned the hard way.

Balor would not give up. Balor clotheslined Mysterio, hit him with a chair multiple times before wrapping his head in between the chair and drop-kicking him into the corner. Balor put Mysterio onto a table and hit the Coup de Grâce for the win.

Advertisement

Dominik Mysterio is introduced before his match against Finn Balor during WrestleMania 42 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on April 19, 2026. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Balor excised his own demons, while Mysterio is still haunted.

Continue Reading

Sports

Ryan Ward has a solid debut, but bullpen blows it again as Dodgers lose to Rockies

Published

on

Ryan Ward has a solid debut, but bullpen blows it again as Dodgers lose to Rockies

What do you know? The once-stampeding Dodgers have been caged by the Colorado Rockies.

With a 9-6 loss Sunday at Coors Field, the two-time defending World Series champions lost back-to-back games for the first time this season. The Dodgers again couldn’t hold a lead, letting the Rockies tee off for 15 hits.

Nor could the Dodgers keep up offensively at the hitter-friendly park — though they put some pressure on in the ninth inning, when Shohei Ohtani led off with a ground-rule double and the Dodgers scored twice to cut the lead to three runs. Then the new guy, Ryan Ward, made the final out in his big league debut, robbed of a hit and a chance to keep chipping away by a diving Troy Johnston in right field.

Before that, the Rockies — who beat the Dodgers twice in 13 meetings all of last season — chased starter Roki Sasaki from the game in the fifth inning and then ruffled the Dodgers’ relievers. That included closer Edwin Díaz, who came on in the eighth and promptly gave up three singles, a walk and two runs before being pulled with the Dodgers trailing 8-4.

Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki gave up three runs on seven hits in 4-2/3 innings Sunday against the Rockies in Denver.

Advertisement

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

He and Blake Treinen combined to face eight batters without getting an out.

“They both weren’t sharp,” said manager Dave Roberts, who had theories but not many answers — though he did have real concern, especially about Díaz, who recently had his right knee checked out by the medical staff.

Roberts said the closer wanted to pitch after nine days off, even though it wasn’t a save situation. But his velocity was slightly down (95.4 mph vs. 95.8) and so, “today was a tough evaluation,” the manager said.

Advertisement

“It really was,” Roberts said. “Because, you know, I know what it’s supposed to look like, and when it doesn’t look like that, it gets a little concerning, really.”

And losing for the second time to the Rockies, who are now 9-13? Being in danger of losing their four-game series, after arriving in Denver without having lost to a National League opponent, against a club that hasn’t made the postseason since 2018?

It’s well below the bar the Dodgers have set, and it added a bitter note to Ward’s otherwise sweet debut.

Ward punched a big league clock for the first time wearing No. 67 and cranked his first hit off Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen in the fourth inning, lining a changeup to right field for a single that scored Andy Pages, made it 3-0 and got the 20-some members of Ward’s party up, jumping in place, hugging and high-fiving.

“When I was on first base, I got to see them all jumping around up there,” Ward said. “That was a pretty special moment.”

Advertisement

He also singled in the sixth and swung on the first pitch in his first at-bat, a fly out in the third inning.

The Dodgers gave Sasaki a 2-0 lead in the third. Alex Freeland drove in Hyeseong Kim, and Shohei Ohtani doubled in Freeland — and extended his career-best on-base streak to 51 games, moving past Willie Keeler into third place in Dodgers history.

Sasaki went 4-2/3 innings, threw 78 pitches and gave up three runs on seven hits, striking out two and walking two. His ERA after his fourth start: 6.11, worst in the six-man rotation.

The Dodgers fell behind 6-5 in the seventh when Treinen — who was cleared Friday after he was struck in the head by a batted ball during batting practice — gave up four consecutive hits, including a two-run home run by Mickey Moniak.

The result likely will be a minor detail when Ward tells the story years from now about getting the call after first baseman Freddie Freeman was placed on the paternity list.

Advertisement

The Dodgers’ No. 19 prospect and reigning Pacific Coast League MVP spent the last seven years in the minors. Last season, he hit 36 home runs and drove in 122 runs with a .937 on-base-plus-slugging percentage for triple-A Oklahoma City, and he has a 1.020 OPS and four homers this year.

Ward made it a point to improve his chase rate, draw more walks and get on base more frequently, everything the Dodgers asked of him. He also passed the broadest patience test.

“The plate discipline, being a better hitter … he’s done all that,” Roberts said. “He’s improved his defense. But honestly, for me, just not to let his lack of opportunity in the big leagues deter him. That’s easy when you get frustrated and let it affect performance, and he hasn’t done that.”

If anything, Ward said, the waiting made him better.

“I used it to keep going. ‘OK, if I’m not there yet, what do I have to do to get there?’” he said. “‘What part of my game do I need to work on to keep getting better?’

Advertisement

“I used it as fire to keep working.”

That will be the Dodgers’ assignment too.

In the finale of the four-game series Monday, the Dodgers are expected to start left-hander Justin Wrobleski (2-0, 2.12) against Colorado left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 5.63).

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Sports

ESPN’s Stephen A Smith hears boos from WrestleMania 42 crowd

Published

on

ESPN’s Stephen A Smith hears boos from WrestleMania 42 crowd

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Danhausen’s curse may be real after all – just ask Stephen A. Smith and the New York Mets.

While the latter dropped their 10th game in a row, Smith got his share of the curse on Saturday night during Night 1 of WrestleMania 42. Smith was in attendance for WWE’s premier event of the year and heard massive boos from the crowd.

Stephen A. Smith attends WrestleMania 42: Night 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 18, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)

Advertisement

Smith was sitting ringside to watch the action. The ESPN star appeared on the videoboard above the ring at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. He appeared to embrace the reaction and smiled through it.

The boos came after Danhausen appeared on “First Take” on Friday – much to the chagrin of the sports pundit. Smith appeared perplexed by Danhausen’s appearance. Smith said he heard about Danhausen and called him a “bad luck charm.”

Danhausen said Smith had been “rude” to him and put the dreaded “curse” on the commentator.

WWE STAR DANHAUSEN SAYS METS ‘CURSE’ ISN’T EXACTLY LIFTED AS TEAM DROPS NINTH STRAIGHT GAME

Stephen A. Smith attends WrestleMania 42: Night 1 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on April 18, 2026. (Andrew Timms/WWE)

Advertisement

Smith is far from the only one dealing with the effects of the “curse.”

Danhausen agreed to “un-curse” the Mets during their losing streak. However, he told Fox News Digital earlier this week that there was a reason why the curse’s removal didn’t take full effect.

“I did un-curse the Mets. But it didn’t work because, I believe it was Brian Gewirtz who did not pay Danhausen. He did not send me my money so it did not take full effect,” Danhausen said. “Once I have the money, perhaps it will actually work because right now it’s probably about a half of an un-cursing. It’s like a layaway situation.”

Danhausen enters the arena before his match against Kit Wilson during SmackDown at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., on April 10, 2026. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Advertisement

On “Friday Night SmackDown,” WWE stars like The Miz and Kit Wilson were also targets of Danhausen’s curse.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending