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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

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College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

We are about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there has been no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams projected to make the College Football Playoff by my model in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also fallen by the wayside. All of that in just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams that were trending up were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is slotted as the 10 seed with a 73 percent chance to make the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is hanging on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11 seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seed since two weeks ago (up one spot each), while USC dropped one spot.

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On the other end, the three teams I wrote about who were trending down were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up on the bubble since two weeks ago after a crushing home defeat to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s Playoff odds have risen only 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

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As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just earned a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Stock up

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ Playoff odds have gone up 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength has gone up 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has taken some bumps and bruises but still should be a top-20 unit. The major improvement has been the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive success rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the Kent State game might be propping up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat up on a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out nicely for Penn State is its schedule. Penn State is projected to be favored in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but outside of that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as daunting as they did at the start of the season.

My model has Penn State winning 10-plus games in 72 percent of simulations, which should get it into the Playoff.

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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)

Boise State

Boise State was a couple of bounces away from taking down Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ Playoff odds have increased by 13 percentage points, all the way up to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now, I must say that the Group of 5 projection could be a little wonky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) lost in the past two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game in which it’s favored by around a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that go 20-plus yards. Even if defenses stack the box, Jeanty can burn you. If there was a Heisman Trophy given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.

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Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it passed for only 32 yards and won through big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a hard recipe to sustain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is best for the team, but at the end of the day, the Wolverines appear to be just a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of the past few years. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff last week, and that number increased to just 5 percent after the USC win. Such a slight increase paints the picture of the long-term concerns.

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It’s possible Orji allows the Wolverines’ run game to be more explosive than it was the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings seems to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And running the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with a great defense has been successful in past years of the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe to become a Playoff team. With a loss already on the schedule and the tricky slate still ahead, I have had time seeing Michigan getting to double-digit wins.

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LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. To this point, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to begin the year and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.

My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has fallen to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home going into halftime isn’t going to give my model any confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Yes, of course. I’m actually bullish on the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the strides necessary on defense to become a Playoff contender.

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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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Packers’ head-coaching situation thrust into spotlight after playoff loss

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Packers’ head-coaching situation thrust into spotlight after playoff loss

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The Green Bay Packers’ playoff exit on Saturday immediately put added focus on what the organization will do with head coach Matt LaFleur.

The NFL coaching cycle has been the wildest in recent memory, with veteran coaches like John Harbaugh and Pete Carroll being shown the door. Packers fans seemingly put LaFleur on the hot seat following their crushing defeat to the Chicago Bears.

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur reacts during the wild-card playoff game against the Bears Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

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ESPN’s Adam Schefter said Sunday that the Packers will have a major decision to make.

“The Green Bay Packers and their new president, Ed Policy, have a significant decision to make here in the coming days – and that is whether to extend Matt LaFleur’s contract. He’s currently got one year remaining, or to move on from him,” Schefter said. “If they moved on from him, he would automatically go near the top of coaches available and shakeup this current head-coaching cycle yet again.”

Schefter added that Harbaugh could be one of the names that would interest the Packers’ organization.

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Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur talks after the playoff game, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

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“Notice how we said this belongs to the Packers’ president, Ed Policy. Well, the Packers’ former president from the back in the day was a man by the name of Bob Harlan,” Schefter explained. “Bob Harlan’s son, Brian Harlan, represents John Harbaugh. John Harbaugh is a Midwestern guy, who has a home in the Upper Peninsula, and a lot of people around the league have been wondering if the Packers decide to go in a different direction, if all of a sudden the Green Bay Packers might fall to the top of John Harbaugh’s list as the top available choice for him.

“This has been a wild, crazy coaching cycle, and we may be just scratching the surface.”

Green Bay Packers’ Matthew Golden celebrates his touchdown against the Bears Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

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Green Bay finished 9-7-1 this season. LaFleur is 76-40-1 as the Packers’ head coach with a 3-6 record in the playoffs.

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Crossroads students begin push to make pickleball a varsity sport

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Crossroads students begin push to make pickleball a varsity sport

For brothers Boone and Ford Casady, pickleball is more than just a game, it is a passion. The 16-year-old twins are among the top junior players on the planet, but more important to them than trophies and medals is a desire to spread the fastest-growing sport in America to high schools and colleges.

Their vision, combined with the persistence of fellow Crossroads sophomores Samantha Leeds and Hannah Carey, has birthed the L.A. High School Pickleball League, the first of its kind in California. The first match will be Jan. 24 at the Santa Monica Pickleball Center.

Teams from Crossroads, Brentwood, Windward, Palisades, Notre Dame and Santa Monica Pacifica Christian will participate, and possibly several more.

Matches will be biweekly with all schools competing at the same shared location. The match format is loosely based on high school tennis with three doubles lines, one singles line and “friendlies” — ensuring that beginners, alternates and developing players all get playing time. The season culminates with semifinals and a league championship.

“My brother and I grew up playing competitive tennis and baseball,” Boone said. “We’d been playing tennis since we were about 3 and in eighth grade we moved to Barcelona to train at the Emilio Sánchez Academy for tennis. We were first introduced to pickleball earlier while we were in Mexico playing with friends and we immediately fell in love with it. We entered our first tournament in Palm Springs and realized we’d found something special.

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“We noticed that so many juniors were training and competing individually but there wasn’t a school-based structure like you have in other varsity sports. We decided to change that. We wanted girls to be involved from the start — it was important to us that the league be coed and inclusive to reflect how competitive girls pickleball already is. We’re also co-founders of the Crossroads Pickleball Club along with Samantha and Hannah and we’re working to grow participation on campus and across L.A.”

The four founders of the L.A. High School Pickleball League play mixed doubles.

(Steve Galluzzo / For The Times)

Unlike most youth sports initiatives, the league was not created by adults or administrators, it was built entirely by students. Over the last two years they have coordinated with the Southern Section for recognition and guidance, worked with Crossroads administrators to establish pickleball as a school-sanctioned varsity sport, organized early intramural and inter-school tournaments, built communication networks among local high schools and helped other schools begin turning their club teams into varsity programs.

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“In high school sports, students usually join a system that already exists,” Leeds said. “With pickleball, we had to build the system ourselves.”

Boone defeated Ford to earn the No. 1 seed at the 2024 Junior PPA National Championships, but they met again for the gold medal and this time Ford won. They also took the gold in doubles and finished No. 1 and No. 2 in the country in the 14s division.

At the 2025 Junior PPA National Championships, the brothers took silver and bronze in the Boys U16 singles and partnered for silver in doubles. They were also presented the Community Assist Award to acknowledge their initiative in starting the Los Angeles High School Pickleball League. They are straight-A students and play shortstop and third base on the varsity baseball team.

So far, their toughest competition in pickleball has been each other.

“Boone and I practice together all the time and we play against each other constantly,” Ford said. “Boone knows the part of my game to attack and I know what to do against him so we always have great matches. No matter who wins, we hug it out at the end.”

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The siblings played in their first pro event of the year Saturday — the Masters Tournament in Palm Springs.

Leeds and Carey were introduced to pickleball in eighth grade.

“I remember leaving PE after playing pickleball, heading to soccer practice and honestly feeling kind of bored,” Leeds recalled. “All I wanted to do was keep playing pickleball.”

“Samantha and I got randomly paired to do pickleball in PE,” said Carey, who lost her home in the Palisades fire. “Most kids would sit out, look bored, or try to skip but as the pickleball nets went up our peers were engaged, exhilarated and connecting over their love of pickleball. So Samantha and I started making petitions to create a league.”

The girls, then 13, had a meeting with Anthony Locke, head of school at Crossroads, and made a pitch deck. Using her skills as a filmmaker Leeds created a short sizzle video to help show what pickleball could look like as a real school sport.

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“We were told that forming school-based teams and leagues is a necessary first step towards eventual CIF recognition,” she said. “I created a Varsity Team Starter Kit, outlining the steps we used to establish pickleball as a school-sanctioned varsity sport. Leaders at other schools are actively using it to establish their own teams.”

Added Carey: “We connected with Boone and Ford, which was such an honor considering their talent and passion for the sport. We decided to join forces and use our resources together to further our process of creating a league.”

The inaugural season runs from January to March but beginning in the 2026-27 school year the plan is to move to the traditional winter sports window, November through January.

“Pickleball has the potential to become a true varsity sport at both the high school and college levels,” Boone said. “We’re so excited to help push it forward.”

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US figure skating power couple makes history with record breaking seventh national championship

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US figure skating power couple makes history with record breaking seventh national championship

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U.S. figure skating stars Madison Chock and Evan Bates made history on Saturday with their record-setting seventh U.S. Figure Skating title in their final competition before the Milan Cortina Olympics.

The three-time reigning world champions, performing a flamenco-style dance to a version of the Rolling Stones hit “Paint It Black” from the dystopian sci-fi Western show “Westworld,” produced a season-best free skate and finished with 228.87 points.

“The feeling that we got from the audience today was unlike anything I’ve ever felt before,” Chock said.

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Madison Chock and Evan Bates of United States perform during ISU World Figure Skating Championships – Boston, at TD Garden,  on March 28, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts.  (Jurij Kodrun – International Skating Union/International Skating Union via Getty Images)

They’ll be the heavy favorites to win gold next month in Italy.

“I felt so much love and joy,” Chock continued, “and I’m so grateful for this moment.”

U.S. Figure Skating will announce its selections on Sunday.

Emilea Zingas and Vadym Kolesnik were second with 213.65 points and Christina Carreira and Anthony Ponomarenko were third with 206.95, making those two pairs the likely choices to join Chock and Bates on the American squad for the upcoming Winter Games.

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The men’s medals also were to be decided on Saturday, though two-time world champion Ilia Malinin had built such a lead after his short program that the self-styled “Quad God” would have to stumble mightily to miss out on a fourth consecutive title.

The U.S. also has qualified the maximum of three men’s spots for the Winter Games, and competition is tight between second-place Tomoko Hiwatashi, fan favorite Jason Brown, Andrew Torgashev and Maxim Naumov to round out the nationals podium.

The last time Chock and Bates competed in the Olympics in 2022 in Beijing, they watched their gold initially go to an opponent who was later disqualified for doping violations.

Chock and Bates initially had to settle for team silver with their American teammates on the podium at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. Team Russia and Kamila Valieva, who was 15 at the time, stood above them with their gold medals. 

It wasn’t until the end of January 2024, when the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) found Valieva guilty of an anti-doping rule violation, when Chock, Bates and the U.S. were declared the rightful 2022 gold medalists. 

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UN URGES COUNTRIES TO HONOR TRUCE DURING WINTER OLYMPICS, NOT DENY VISAS TO ANY NATION’S ATHLETES

Madison Chock and Evan Bates compete in championship ice dance at the U.S. figure skating championships Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024, in Columbus, Ohio.  (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

Valieva tested positive for trimetazidine, a banned substance, during an anti-doping test at the Russian Figure Skating Championships in December 2021. She was suspended for four years and stripped of all competitive results since that date.

Chock and Bates spoke about what their message to Valieva would be today during an interview at the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee media summit in October. 

“It’s hard to, I think, imagine what a 15-year-old has gone through and under that kind of situation,” Bates said. “And I know how stressful it is, being an elite athlete as an adult, as a 36-year-old. And I think that grace should be given to humans across the board. And we can never really know the full situation, at least from our point of view. … I genuinely don’t know what I would say to her.”

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Chock added, “I would just wish her well like as I would. I think life is short. And, at the end of the day, we’re all human just going through our own human experience together. And regardless of what someone has or hasn’t done and how it has affected you, I think it’s important to remember we’re humans as a collective, and we’re all here for this, our one moment on earth, at the same time. And I just wish people to have healthy, happy lives, full of people that love them.”

Chock and Bates had to wait more than two years after the initial Olympics to get their rightful gold medals, and they were finally presented with them during a ceremony at the Paris Olympics last summer.

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Madison Chock and Evan Bates of the USA perform in the Gala Exhibition during the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final Nagoya at IG Arena on December 07, 2025 in Nagoya, Japan.  (Atsushi Tomura – International Skating Union/International Skating Union via Getty Images)

Chock, Bates and teammates Karen Chen, Nathan Chen, Zachary Donohue, Brandon Frazier, Madison Hubbell, Alexa Knierim and Vincent Zhou were given a specialized gold medal ceremony to receive the medals in front of more than 13,000 fans. 

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Chock and Bates became the first ice dancers to win three consecutive world championships in nearly three decades in March when they defeated Canadian rivals Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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