Denver, CO

Improving Investor Behavior: Market forecasting is a loser’s game

Published

1 year ago

August 18, 2024

It’s Friday, Aug. 2, and I’m writing this article with CNBC open on my browser. The headline shouts, “Dow Loses 750 Points, Nasdaq Enters Correction After Weak Jobs Report.” The week was rough, with markets retracting from what felt like a month of steady new highs. A scant few weeks ago, investors were piling cash into highly valued tech stocks. Now they can’t seem to exit fast enough. Fear and greed pervade.

For frequent readers of this column, a correction should come as no surprise. They happen every 12 to 18 months as a “normal” part of financial markets reacting to economic and market growth. Corporate earnings, the most recent jobs report, and the wait-and-see Federal Reserve seem to be contributing factors, but focusing on these each month is akin to analyzing the bugs on your windshield: watch too closely, and you’re likely to crash. For long-term investors, “corrections” (I still dislike that word) are a mere hiccup on the path to a bigger future.

Steve Booren (handout)

But news broadcasters, of course, have a different perspective. The week’s headlines touted “Investor Recession Fears,” “Sharpest Weekly Losses.” In the next breath we read “Earnings Flurry Boosts Indexes,” and “Dow Closes Higher Buoyed by Bullish Inflation Report.” Bull or bear, it’s been a dramatic couple of weeks. As Dickens wrote, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

The news is inherently reactive. Anchors have the unenviable task of filling 24 hours of on-air time daily, so besides reporting on the event, they also feel the need to attempt to explain why it happened (or add some drama). Sometimes this is straightforward; other times — especially around financial markets — it’s downright impossible.

Daily market movements are random. Period. For fun, start each day by guessing whether your favorite index is going to finish the day up or down. Write down your guess. Do it for a month, and see how many days you get it right. The reality is that daily market movements are affected by so many variables that choosing up, down, or flat follows the same probability as a coin flip. What’s comical is financial media’s need to explain why the coin landed heads up.

Remember: volatility drives the narrative; the narrative does not drive volatility. When markets go down, “professionals” attempt to explain why. Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong, but we can never measure their accuracy. So why do we listen to them?

As humans, we want answers. Cause and effect. The market went down 800 points; why? Markets are hugely amorphous, so we turn to “professionals” to explain the details. They give us a “reason,” and we wonder how we could be so silly to have missed the signs.

Taking a step back shows us how crazy it is to believe one person could flawlessly understand why markets moved on any given day. This is akin to someone explaining that the coin landed heads up because the wind blew. It’s insanity, yet we expect it, accept it, and worse yet, get on board with it. Human behavior craves certainty and stability, yet these are mere mental mirages crafted by those seeking to keep our attention.

This leads to an even bigger problem: predictions. Given an audience, reporters may feel empowered to start guessing the outcome of the coin flip before it even starts. Viewers might like to understand why something happened, but if they could know the outcome ahead of time? Well, that’s the promised land. And the media loves to give the viewer what they want, even if it’s completely wrong.

This is nothing new. In the mid-1980s, as a fresh-faced adviser working for a large firm, I once picked up a renowned economist from Stapleton Airport. My job was to drive him to Breckenridge for a research conference where he’d present his future predictions. At the time, interest rates were climbing, inflation was high, and he believed emphatically that mortgage rates were going to keep rising and never come back down.

That guess was wrong. Very wrong. Later in his career, he said Y2K was going to cause a worldwide recession, comparing it to the energy crisis of the early 1970s. Wrong again. Today he (naturally) owns a huge market research firm. As our compliance department says, “Past performance is not indicative of future success.”

Though we may wish for accurate forecasting, the truth is we have no facts about the future. We don’t know what will happen or how markets will react. Humans tend to make decisions with emotion instead of common sense, and we ignore mistakes and the wisdom they bring. That’s why human nature is a poor investor.

Choosing to do the right thing — the hard thing — takes effort and discipline. It also takes a perspective that feels unnatural but makes sense when taken at face value. Invest for the long term. Remove the guesswork, and ignore those who try to convince you they have an edge. Fall back on humility as a key character trait, recognizing that your knowledge and assumptions have limits. Above all, ask why. Not why something happened; in markets that answer isn’t knowable. Instead ask why someone is trying to explain the unexplainable. You’ll find far more insight.

Steve Booren is the founder of Prosperion Financial Advisors in Greenwood Village. He is the author of “Blind Spots: The Mental Mistakes Investors Make” and “Intelligent Investing: Your Guide to a Growing Retirement Income.” He was named by Forbes as a 2021 Best-in-State Wealth Advisor, and a Barron’s 2021 Top Advisor by State. This column is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations.

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Denver, CO

Denver weather: Strong wind and increased fire danger Wednesday

Published

4 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Press Room

Denver weather: Strong wind and increased fire danger Wednesday

DENVER (KDVR) — A Pinpoint Weather Alert Day has been issued for Wednesday as fire danger increases in Denver due to strong wind gusts and dry conditions, with even stronger wind gusts to the west into the foothills.

Denver weather tonight: Mainly clear

Denver weather tomorrow: Warm & windy

Wednesday will be warm and windy.

As high temperatures climb to the mid-60s, wind gusts will pick up to over 40 mph.

A Red Flag Warning has been issued across the urban corridor as strong wind gusts are paired with dry conditions on the ground and low humidity, leading to high fire danger for the potential of rapid fire spread.

The strongest wind gusts will be west of the metro. High wind warnings are set to go into effect Wednesday morning and continue into early Thursday. During this time, gusts could reach 65-85 mph, especially for areas above 6,000 feet.

Above 9000 feet, there is a chance for light snowfall. Even though most places will only see 4″ of snowfall or less, blowing snow from strong wind gusts will lead to limited visibility and difficult driving conditions.

Looking ahead: Staying warmer through the weekend

Temperatures will drop on Thursday to around 50 degrees, which is still more than five degrees above normal for this time of year.

Friday, sunny, breezy and warm weather returns. High temperatures will climb to record range, which in Denver is a high of 67 degrees, last hit in 2023.

More dry and warmer than normal conditions will continue into the weekend, with a high in the mid-60s Saturday, then just shy of 60 degrees by kickoff of the Broncos game. Then the workweek starts with sunshine and high temperatures reaching record levels.

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Denver, CO

Where To Eat Christmas Eve Dinner In Denver – 303 Magazine

Published

16 hours ago

December 16, 2025

Press Room

Where To Eat Christmas Eve Dinner In Denver – 303 Magazine

For Christmas Eve dinner in Denver, options range from upscale steakhouses like Elway’s and Urban Farmer to Italian spots like Cranelli’s, seafood at Jax Fish House, Mexican at Kachina Cantina, and varied American/international cuisine at places like Tavernetta, Root Down, with many offering both dine-in and takeout for prime rib, seafood feasts, or holiday boxes, but reservations are essential.

Remember to book early, as many of these places fill up fast. Check the websites or call to confirm holiday hours and make reservations.

Steak & Upscale

Elway’s Downtown
Featuring their classic steakhouse menu plus festive additions like Duck Breast and Crab Stuffed Mushrooms.
Make a reservation HERE

Urban Farmer Denver
Offers prime rib and Peking duck to-go or dine-in options.
Make a reservation HERE

The Capital Grille
Another upscale steakhouse option for the holiday.
Make a reservation HERE

Italian & European

Cranelli’s Italian Restaurant
Featuring a la carte menu with seasonal luxuries.
Make a reservation HERE

Tavernetta
Featuring a la carte menu with seasonal luxuries.
Make a reservation HERE

Le French – 9+CO
Focusing on decadent food like oysters, foie gras, seafood, turkey/goose, and the iconic chocolate log cake.
Make a reservation HERE

Seafood & American

Jax Fish House & Oyster Bar
Featuring seven Fresh Fishes, Five Golden Courses, and an unforgettable Christmas Eve.
Make a reservation HERE

Local Jones
Savor carving stations, classic holiday favorites, specialty desserts, and more
Make a reservation HERE

Root Down
Creative American cuisine with global influences offering prix fixe or a la carte menue
Make a reservation HERE

Mexican & Latin

Kachina Cantina
Features a Christmas Eve Prime Rib special.
Make a reservation

SOL Mexican Cocina
Featuring Prime Rib served with Truffle Parmesan Mashed Potatoes, Bacon Brussels Sprouts & Maple Syrup Glazed Carrots
Make a reservation HERE

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Denver, CO

Keeler: Broncos, Sean Payton reuniting with Justin Simmons would be surprise. Denver becoming AFC West’s next dynasty would not be.

Published

1 day ago

December 16, 2025

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Keeler: Broncos, Sean Payton reuniting with Justin Simmons would be surprise. Denver becoming AFC West’s next dynasty would not be.

The Grinch has more room for nostalgia in his heart than one Patrick Sean Payton.

Before we get to the good stuff, just know that what applies to Von Miller and Payton absolutely applies to Justin Simmons, too. Even though the Broncos now have a starting safety slot wide open while a former Pro Bowl safety in Simmons is local and looking for a gig, the locker room in Dove Valley might not be big enough for the both of them. Although stranger things have happened, and it’s almost Christmas.

Speaking of presents, the Chiefs finally returned the AFC West throne to the store, receipt and all, after hogging that thing for 3,270 days. Eight years, 11 months, and 14 days, officially.

A child born on New Year’s Day 2017, the actual start of the Kansas City Chiefs’ AFC West dynasty, would be halfway through third grade as of Monday. At last, Heaven help us, we can clearly see the end, a light at the end of long, red tunnel of darkness.

The Chiefs were mathematically eliminated from the postseason this past Sunday. Kansas City is slated to be $43.8 million over the cap in 2026. Travis Kelce just turned 36. Chris Jones will be 32 next summer. Mahomes will be 31 next September, and his left knee just went kablooey in a home loss to the Chargers. Legends live forever in our hearts, but every anterior cruciate ligament comes with an expiration date.

The second-hardest thing in the NFL is to win a championship. The hardest is to pull it off multiple times. It never ceases to amuse me how the most popular sports league in America, land of me-first, is simultaneously a screaming bastion of socialism and enforced parity. The good of all before the one.

Bad teams get the best draft picks. A salary cap that prevents elite teams from hoarding all the elite players, so long as those elite players want to get paid. And they do.

All that being said, the Broncos (12-2) aren’t just poised to win a division title this fall. They’re in a really good position to follow in the Chiefs’ cleats and go on a little dynastic run of their own. And we’ll give you five reasons why:

1. The Chiefs’ best players are getting old

Even if Kelce, who can become an unrestricted free agent next year, elects to return, the Chiefs’ books are looking fairly lopsided. Per Spotrac, Kansas City will have 44.9% of its cap space for 2026 taken up by four players who will be 31 years or older: Jones ($44.85 million), K Harrison Butker ($7.3 million), LB Drue Tranquill ($7.5 million) and Mahomes ($78.2 million).

The Broncos’ 31-and-older club, depending on what becomes of linebacker Alex Singleton, is slated to take up 24.9% of next year’s cap.

2. The Chargers’ best players are already old

The Bolts have 33.3% of their active roster cap tied up in 17 players who are at least 29 years old. And at least 10 of those guys are scheduled to hit the open market after this season.

QB Justin Herbert is better with one good hand than most NFL signal-callers are with two. He’s just 27. Although working with Jim Harbaugh has been known to age people prematurely.

3. The Broncos’ best players are … not

The Broncos went into Week 1, per PhillyVoice.com, with the eighth fewest number of players among NFL rosters who were aged 29 or older (10).

Bo Nix, the QB1 who keeps rising to the moment, is 25 and on a rookie contract through 2027 (for now).

Also signed through ’27, per Spotrac.com (deep breath): CB Pat Surtain II, RT Mike McGlinchey, DL Zach Allen, WR Courtland Sutton, LT Garett Bolles, OLB Jonathon Cooper, OLB Nik Bonitto, S Talanoa Hufanga, DB Jahdae Barron, DL D.J. Jones, LB Dre Greenlaw, G Quinn Meinerz, DL Malcolm Roach, C Luke Wattenberg, OLB Jonah Elliss, RB RJ Harvey, CB Kris Abrams-Draine, K Wil Lutz and P Jeremy Crawshaw. Oh, and WRs Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant.

Pretty good core, that. Especially when you consider that only five of those guys are 30 years or older — and one of those five happens to be Lutz.

4. GM George Paton has the drafting part down

And he always did. Nine of Denver’s 11 starters are former Broncos draft picks or former collegiate free agents. As are five of the 11 guys who usually start for Vance Joseph’s defense. The more expensive Nix’s contract becomes, the more important hitting on rookies immediately is going to get.

5. Sean Payton has done this before

Yes, Sunshine Sean loves the screen game more than Homer Simpson loves Duff Beer. Yes, he holds fools and journalists in equal disdain. But the man also won seven division titles in New Orleans, including four straight (2017-2020) after his 2012 suspension. From 2018-2022, talk about the Broncos largely focused on the franchise’s sagging floor. Now it’s about the ceiling. Whether you like him personally or not, there’s no denying the degree to which Payton flipped the script.

Tom Brady was 42 when he signed with Tampa Bay and 45 when he retired for the second time. Rob Gronkowski hung ’em up for the USAA life at age 33. Savor the now. When a window opens, you don’t walk through it. You sprint like there’s a raging, snorting Nederland moose in hot pursuit.

In the NFL, age is a running clock. As any Broncomaniac can tell you, there’s one defensive coordinator worse than Belichick, a mastermind not even Mahomes, Brees, Elway or Manning could lick: Father Time. For the first time in a decade, he’s finally on the Broncos’ side.

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