2Q 2024 net loss of $45.8 million reflects after-tax goodwill impairment of $66.1 million in connection with HEI’s ongoing review of strategic options for ASB
Excluding the non-cash goodwill impairment, and excluding after-tax Maui wildfire-related expenses of $0.3 million, ASB’s core net income1 for the second quarter was $20.7 million, compared to $20.9 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $20.2 million in the second quarter of 2023
Non-cash goodwill impairment has no impact on ASB’s liquidity or ability to serve customers’ financial needs
Net interest margin expanded to 2.79%, up 4 basis points from the prior quarter
Strong credit quality and another release of reserves reflect healthy Hawaii economy
HONOLULU, July 31, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–American Savings Bank, F.S.B. (ASB), a wholly owned subsidiary of Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (NYSE – HE), today reported a second quarter 2024 net loss of $45.8 million. The second quarter 2024 results reflect the impact of an after-tax goodwill impairment of $66.1 million in connection with HEI’s ongoing review of strategic options for ASB. The goodwill impairment is related to acquisitions that took place in the 1980s and 1990s. The impairment is non-cash and has no impact on ASB’s liquidity.
“The bank’s core operations and earnings remain strong, and in the second quarter ASB improved profitability and grew core net income2 compared to the same quarter last year,” said Ann Teranishi, president and chief executive officer of ASB. “We saw net interest margin expand in the quarter, and management’s prudent expense control resulted in a decrease in core noninterest expense. ASB is in a strong financial position with high liquidity, deep borrowing capacity and a loyal, long-tenured base of deposits.”
“Over the last year, HEI has been advancing a strategy designed to support a strong, financially healthy enterprise that will empower a thriving future for Hawaii,” said Scott Seu, HEI president and CEO. “Consistent with this approach, HEI has been undertaking a comprehensive review of strategic options for ASB. We will continue to take prudent and measured actions to ensure our companies are well positioned to serve our customers and community for the long term.”
Teranishi continued, “In connection with HEI’s ongoing evaluation, the bank recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge that reflects management’s analysis of our bank’s market valuation. This non-cash charge has no impact on ASB’s liquidity or ASB’s ability to serve our customers’ financial needs. We remain focused on taking care of Hawaii’s residents, businesses and communities as we have for nearly 100 years.”
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There is no set timetable for HEI’s comprehensive review of strategic options for ASB, and there can be no assurances that any actions regarding ASB will result from this evaluation. Neither HEI nor ASB expect to disclose or provide an update concerning developments related to this process unless or until HEI’s Board of Directors has approved a definitive course of action or otherwise determined that further disclosure is appropriate or necessary.
___________
1
See the “Explanation of ASB’s Use of Certain Unaudited Non-GAAP Measures” and the related GAAP reconciliation at the end of this release. For the first quarter of 2024 and the second quarter 2023, core net income was approximately equivalent to GAAP net income.
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2
Refer to footnote 1.
Financial Highlights
Second quarter 2024 net interest income was $61.7 million compared to $62.3 million in the linked quarter and $63.2 million in the second quarter of 2023. The lower net interest income compared to the linked quarter was primarily due to lower yields on the investment portfolio and lower earning asset balances. The lower net interest income compared to the prior year quarter was primarily due to higher interest expense on deposit liabilities, partially offset by higher interest and dividend income due to higher earning asset yields. Net interest margin for the second quarter of 2024 was 2.79% compared to 2.75% in both the linked and prior year quarters. The yield on earning assets improved 1 basis point during the quarter, and cost of funding improved 2 basis points.
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In the second quarter of 2024 ASB recorded a negative provision for credit losses of $1.9 million compared to a negative provision for credit losses of $2.2 million in the linked quarter and a provision for credit losses of $0.04 million in the second quarter of 2023. The quarter’s negative provision reflects a $0.8 million release of reserves due to an improved economic outlook for Maui following the August 2023 wildfires, as well as lower loss rates and lower loan balances. As of June 30, 2024, ASB’s allowance for credit losses to outstanding loans was 1.11% compared to 1.16% as of March 31, 2024 and 1.13% as of June 30, 2023.
The net charge-off ratio for the second quarter of 2024 was 0.15%, compared to 0.14% in both the linked and prior year quarters. Nonaccrual loans as a percentage of total loans receivable held for investment were 0.53%, compared to 0.53% in the linked quarter and 0.22% in the prior year quarter.
Noninterest income was $15.8 million in the second quarter of 2024 compared to $17.2 million in the linked quarter and $15.6 million in the second quarter of 2023. The decrease compared to the linked quarter was primarily due to lower bank-owned life insurance (BOLI) income related to changes in the fair market value of the underlying assets. The increase compared to the prior year quarter was primarily due to higher BOLI income and higher fee income, partially offset by the gain on sale of real estate recorded last year.
Noninterest expense was $136.5 million compared to $55.9 million in the linked quarter and $53.8 million in the second quarter of 2023. The increase compared to the linked and prior year quarters primarily reflects the goodwill impairment charge of $82.2 million pre-tax ($66.1 million after tax) taken in connection with HEI’s ongoing review of strategic options for ASB. Noninterest expense for the quarter also included pre-tax wildfire-related services expenses of $1.2 million.
Total loans were $6.1 billion as of June 30, 2024, down 2.5% from December 31, 2023.
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Total deposits were $8.0 billion as of June 30, 2024, down 1.3% from December 31, 2023. Core deposits declined 1.3% from December 31, 2023, while certificates of deposit decreased 1.4% primarily due to the paydown of $166 million in public time deposits. As of June 30, 2024, 83% of deposits were F.D.I.C. insured or fully collateralized, with approximately 79% of deposits F.D.I.C. insured. For the second quarter of 2024, the average cost of funds was 115 basis points, down slightly from 117 basis points in the linked quarter and up 32 basis points from the prior year quarter.
Wholesale funding totaled $520 million as of June 30, 2024, down $73 million from March 31, 2024.
In the second quarter of 2024, ASB did not pay a dividend to HEI, supporting ASB’s healthy capital levels. ASB had a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 8.4% as of June 30, 2024.
HEI EARNINGS RELEASE, HEI WEBCAST AND CONFERENCE CALL TO DISCUSS EARNINGS
Concurrent with ASB’s regulatory filing 30 days after the end of the quarter, ASB announced its second quarter 2024 financial results today. Please note that these reported results relate only to ASB and are not necessarily indicative of HEI’s consolidated financial results for the second quarter 2024.
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HEI plans to announce its second quarter 2024 consolidated financial results on Friday, August 9, 2024 and will also conduct a webcast and conference call at 10:30 a.m. Hawaii time (4:30 p.m. Eastern time) that same day to discuss its consolidated earnings, including ASB’s earnings.
To listen to the conference call, dial 1-888-660-6377 (U.S.) or 1-929-203-0797 (international) and enter passcode 2393042. Parties may also access presentation materials (which include reconciliation of non-GAAP measures) and/or listen to the conference call by visiting the conference call link on HEI’s website at www.hei.com under “Investor Relations,” sub-heading “News and Events — Events and Presentations.”
A replay will be available online and via phone. The online replay will be available on HEI’s website about two hours after the event. An audio replay will also be available about two hours after the event through August 23, 2024. To access the audio replay, dial 1-800-770-2030 (U.S.) or 1-647-362-9199 (international) and enter passcode 2393042.
HEI and Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc. (Hawaiian Electric) intend to continue to use HEI’s website, www.hei.com, as a means of disclosing additional information; such disclosures will be included in the Investor Relations section of the website. Accordingly, investors should routinely monitor the Investor Relations section of HEI’s website, in addition to following HEI’s, Hawaiian Electric’s and ASB’s press releases, HEI’s and Hawaiian Electric’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings and HEI’s public conference calls and webcasts. Investors may sign up to receive e-mail alerts via the Investor Relations section of the website. The information on HEI’s website is not incorporated by reference into this document or into HEI’s and Hawaiian Electric’s SEC filings unless, and except to the extent, specifically incorporated by reference.
Investors may also wish to refer to the Public Utilities Commission of the State of Hawaii (PUC) website at https://hpuc.my.site.com/cdms/s/ to review documents filed with, and issued by, the PUC. No information on the PUC website is incorporated by reference into this document or into HEI’s and Hawaiian Electric’s SEC filings.
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The HEI family of companies provides the energy and financial services that empower much of the economic and community activity of Hawaii. HEI’s electric utility, Hawaiian Electric, supplies power to approximately 95% of Hawaii’s population and is undertaking an ambitious effort to decarbonize its operations and the broader state economy. Its banking subsidiary, ASB, is one of Hawaii’s largest financial institutions, providing a wide array of banking and other financial services and working to advance economic growth, affordability and financial fitness. HEI also helps advance Hawaii’s sustainability goals through investments by its non-regulated subsidiary, Pacific Current. For more information, visit www.hei.com.
NON-GAAP MEASURES
Measures described as “core” (e.g., core net income and core noninterest expense) are non-GAAP measures which exclude after-tax Maui wildfire-related costs and the goodwill impairment taken in connection with HEI’s ongoing review of strategic options for ASB. See “Explanation of ASB’s Use of Certain Unaudited Non-GAAP Measures” and the related GAAP reconciliations at the end of this release.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This release may contain “forward-looking statements,” which include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, and usually include words such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “predicts,” “estimates” or similar expressions. In addition, any statements concerning future financial performance, ongoing business strategies or prospects or possible future actions are also forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events and are subject to risks, uncertainties and the accuracy of assumptions concerning HEI and its subsidiaries, the performance of the industries in which they do business and economic, political and market factors, among other things. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance.
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Forward-looking statements in this release should be read in conjunction with the “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” discussions (which are incorporated by reference herein) set forth in HEI’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and HEI’s other periodic reports that discuss important factors that could cause HEI’s results to differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of the report, presentation or filing in which they are made. Except to the extent required by the federal securities laws, HEI, Hawaiian Electric, ASB and their subsidiaries undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
American Savings Bank, F.S.B. STATEMENTS OF INCOME DATA (Unaudited)
Three months ended
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Six months ended June 30
(in thousands)
June 30, 2024
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March 31, 2024
June 30, 2023
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2024
2023
Interest and dividend income
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Interest and fees on loans
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$
72,960
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$
72,971
$
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67,966
$
145,931
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$
132,808
Interest and dividends on investment securities
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13,218
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14,964
13,775
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28,182
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28,412
Total interest and dividend income
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86,178
87,935
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81,741
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174,113
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161,220
Interest expense
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Interest on deposit liabilities
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18,015
17,432
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9,661
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35,447
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16,498
Interest on other borrowings
6,479
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8,154
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8,852
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14,633
16,573
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Total interest expense
24,494
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25,586
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18,513
50,080
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33,071
Net interest income
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61,684
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62,349
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63,228
124,033
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128,149
Provision for credit losses
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(1,910
)
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(2,159
)
43
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(4,069
)
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1,218
Net interest income after provision for credit losses
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63,594
64,508
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63,185
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128,102
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126,931
Noninterest income
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Fees from other financial services
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5,133
4,874
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5,009
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10,007
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9,688
Fee income on deposit liabilities
4,630
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4,898
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4,504
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9,528
9,103
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Fee income on other financial products
2,960
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2,743
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2,768
5,703
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5,512
Bank-owned life insurance
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2,255
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3,584
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1,955
5,839
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3,380
Mortgage banking income
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364
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424
230
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788
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360
Gain on sale of real estate
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—
—
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495
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—
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495
Other income, net
423
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686
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678
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1,109
1,479
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Total noninterest income
15,765
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17,209
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15,639
32,974
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30,017
Noninterest expense
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Compensation and employee benefits
29,802
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32,459
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29,394
62,261
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59,598
Occupancy
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5,220
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5,063
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5,539
10,283
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11,127
Data processing
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4,960
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4,846
5,095
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9,806
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10,107
Services
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4,250
4,151
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2,689
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8,401
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5,284
Equipment
2,477
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2,649
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2,957
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5,126
5,603
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Office supplies, printing and postage
1,006
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1,018
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1,109
2,024
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2,274
Marketing
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747
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776
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834
1,523
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1,850
Goodwill impairment
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82,190
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—
—
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82,190
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—
Other expense
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5,813
4,942
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6,152
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10,755
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12,343
Total noninterest expense
136,465
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55,904
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53,769
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192,369
108,186
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Income (loss) before income taxes
(57,106
)
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25,813
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25,055
(31,293
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)
48,762
Income tax (benefit)
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(11,319
)
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4,879
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4,851
(6,440
)
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9,996
Net income (loss)
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$
(45,787
)
$
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20,934
$
20,204
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$
(24,853
)
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$
38,766
Comprehensive income (loss)
$
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(44,154
)
$
11,166
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$
12,994
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$
(32,988
)
$
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49,986
OTHER BANK INFORMATION (annualized %, except as of period end)
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Return on average assets
(1.97
)
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0.88
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0.84
(0.53
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)
0.81
Return on average equity
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(33.97
)
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15.64
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16.20
(9.25
)
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15.87
Return on average tangible common equity
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(39.84
)
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18.48
19.40
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(10.89
)
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19.07
Net interest margin
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2.79
2.75
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2.75
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2.77
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2.80
Efficiency ratio
176.20
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70.27
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68.18
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122.52
68.40
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Net charge-offs to average loans outstanding
0.15
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0.14
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0.14
0.14
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0.14
As of period end
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Nonaccrual loans to loans receivable held for investment
0.53
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0.53
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0.22
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Allowance for credit losses to loans outstanding
1.11
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1.16
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1.13
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Tangible common equity to tangible assets
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5.4
5.0
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4.3
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Tier-1 leverage ratio
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8.4
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8.0
7.8
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Dividend paid to HEI (via ASB Hawaii, Inc.) ($ in millions)
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$
—
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$
—
$
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11.0
$
—
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$
25.0
This information should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and the notes thereto in HEI filings with the SEC. Results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for future interim periods or the full year.
American Savings Bank, F.S.B. BALANCE SHEETS DATA (Unaudited)
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(in thousands)
June 30, 2024
December 31, 2023
Assets
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Cash and due from banks
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$
139,114
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$
184,383
Interest-bearing deposits
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195,721
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251,072
Cash and cash equivalents
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334,835
435,455
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Investment securities
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Available-for-sale, at fair value
1,061,687
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1,136,439
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Held-to-maturity, at amortized cost
1,179,182
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1,201,314
Stock in Federal Home Loan Bank, at cost
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29,204
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14,728
Loans held for investment
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6,030,158
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6,180,810
Allowance for credit losses
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(66,813
)
(74,372
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)
Net loans
5,963,345
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6,106,438
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Loans held for sale, at lower of cost or fair value
13,904
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15,168
Other
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698,648
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681,460
Goodwill
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—
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82,190
Total assets
$
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9,280,805
$
9,673,192
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Liabilities and shareholder’s equity
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Deposit liabilities–noninterest-bearing
$
2,515,062
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$
2,599,762
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Deposit liabilities–interest-bearing
5,521,411
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5,546,016
Other borrowings
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520,000
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750,000
Other
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226,488
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247,563
Total liabilities
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8,782,961
9,143,341
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Common stock
1
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1
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Additional paid-in capital
359,048
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358,067
Retained earnings
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439,202
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464,055
Accumulated other comprehensive loss, net of tax benefits
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Net unrealized losses on securities
$
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(291,864
)
$
(282,963
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)
Retirement benefit plans
(8,543
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)
(300,407
)
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(9,309
)
(292,272
)
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Total shareholder’s equity
497,844
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529,851
Total liabilities and shareholder’s equity
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$
9,280,805
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$
9,673,192
This information should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and the notes thereto in HEI filings with the SEC.
Explanation of ASB’s Use of Certain Unaudited Non-GAAP Measures
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HEI and ASB management use certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate the performance of HEI and the bank.
Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide useful information and are a better indicator of the companies’ core operating activities. Core earnings and other financial measures as presented here may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies. The accompanying tables provide a reconciliation of reported GAAP1 earnings to non-GAAP core earnings and returns on average equity and average assets for the bank.
The reconciling adjustments from GAAP earnings to core earnings are limited to the costs related to the Maui wildfires and the goodwill impairment taken in connection with HEI’s ongoing review of strategic options for ASB. Management does not consider these items to be representative of the company’s fundamental core earnings.
Reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP Measures American Savings Bank F.S.B. Unaudited
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(in thousands)
Three months ended June 30, 2024
Six months ended June 30, 2024
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Maui wildfire related costs and goodwill impairment
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Pretax expenses:
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Provision for credit losses
$
(800
)
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$
(2,300
)
Professional services expense
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1,201
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2,909
Other expenses, net
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51
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(266
)
Pretax Maui wildfire related costs, net
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452
343
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Pretax goodwill impairment
82,190
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82,190
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Income tax benefit
(16,181
)
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(16,152
)
After-tax expenses
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$
66,461
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$
66,381
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ASB net income (loss)
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GAAP (as reported)
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$
(45,787
)
$
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(24,853
)
Excluding expense relating to Maui wildfire costs and goodwill impairment (after tax):
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Provision for credit losses
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(586
)
(1,684
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)
Professional services expense
880
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2,130
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Other expenses, net
37
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(195
)
Goodwill impairment
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66,130
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66,130
Maui wildfire related cost, net and goodwill impairment (after tax)
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66,461
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66,381
Non-GAAP (core) net income
$
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20,674
$
41,528
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Three months ended June 30, 2024
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Six months ended June 30, 2024
Ratios (annualized %)
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Based on GAAP
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Return on average assets
(1.97
)
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(0.53
)
Return on average equity
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(33.97
)
(9.25
)
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Return on average tangible common equity
(39.84
)
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(10.89
)
Efficiency ratio
176.20
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122.52
Based on Non-GAAP (core)
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Return on average assets
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0.89
0.88
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Return on average equity
15.34
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15.46
Return on average tangible common equity
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17.99
18.20
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Efficiency ratio
68.46
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68.49
1
Accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America
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View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240730272283/en/
While most AI in financial services remains advisory, LUMIQ has built the layer that owns the decision — autonomous, auditable AI agents making regulated calls in production at leading banks, insurers, and capital markets firms. Today, LUMIQ serves clients across India, the United States, and Southeast Asia — leading institutions across insurance, banking, and capital markets.
NEW YORK and SINGAPORE, June 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — LUMIQ, an AI-native financial services company, today announced a strategic funding round to scale auto-decisioning for financial institutions across the United States and Southeast Asia. The round was led by Bajaj Finserv, one of India’s largest and most diversified financial services groups, with participation from existing investor Info Edge Ventures.
LUMIQ raises Strategic Funding to become AI decision layer for financial services
Right now, thousands of customers are waiting for a policy to be issued, a loan to be disbursed, a claim to be adjudicated, because somewhere an FSI employee is drowning in decisions, held back by the risk of getting it wrong. Today, when e-commerce delivers the same day, banks and insurers still decide in weeks. We built LiteCone to take that burden: AI decides the routine cases, completely and accountably, so humans spend their judgment on the one case that actually needs it. This round lets us bring that to every financial institution in the markets that matter most. Shoaib Mohammad, Co-founder and CEO, LUMIQ
From AI that assists to AI that decides
For decades, financial institutions have bought technology that made their people faster — faster data, faster scoring, faster copilots. The decision still landed on a human. LUMIQ is changing that. Through its LiteCone platform, the company deploys AI agents that read the file, apply the institution’s own guidelines, and reach the decision end to end — escalating only the cases that genuinely require human judgment. The output is not a recommendation. It is a decision, with full reasoning attached, cross-referenced to policy, and defensible under audit.
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The results in production speak clearly. At a leading life insurer, LUMIQ’s LEO agent decides 75–80% of underwriting cases with zero human touch, reduced policy issuance cost by roughly 25%, and compressed turnaround from days to under eight minutes — running 24×7 with complete auditability. Across its client base spanning insurance, banking, and capital markets in India, the US, and Southeast Asia, LUMIQ now processes millions of decisions annually.
LiteCone turns a real financial-services role into a working AI agent in weeks. Every agent we deploy is consistent, explainable, compliant, and auditable by design — not as an afterthought. This capital lets us go deeper on the platform and broader across roles. And through our cloud and AI lab partnerships, institutions will increasingly find LiteCone already embedded in the platforms they run today. Vaibhav Dobriyal, Co-founder and Chief Product Officer, LUMIQ
This round funds four priorities: expanding go-to-market in the US and Southeast Asia; deepening LiteCone’s decisioning capabilities; extending the agent workforce across more financial-services roles; and building a partnership ecosystem with cloud hyperscalers, AI labs, and core banking and insurance platforms so LiteCone is embedded where institutions already run.
LUMIQ’s investors backed the round for the same reason its customers adopt LiteCone: agents already deciding in production, with auditability and control built in.
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As a financial-services group, we know how much rests on getting regulated decisions right, at speed and at scale. LUMIQ has built AI agents that decide in production with auditability and control built in, the capability the industry has been moving toward. We are proud to lead this round and to support the team’s expansion across the US and Southeast Asia. Lakshmi Iyer, Group President – Investments & CEO, Bajaj Alternates
Our conviction is grounded in what LUMIQ has already built. Their AI agents aren’t just built for the future. They are operating in production today, at speed. This combination is rare, and its value will only compound as the company scales globally. Girish Jhunjhunwala, Fund Manager – PE and VC Investments, Bajaj Alternates
Financial services is one of the hardest categories to crack — regulated, risk-averse, and unforgiving of hype. LUMIQ has put agentic AI into live financial-services workflows and earned the trust of large institutions across the US, Southeast Asia and India. That is how a category-defining company in financial-services AI gets built, and we are proud to keep backing the team as they scale globally. Kitty Agarwal, Partner, Info Edge Ventures
LUMIQ’s goal is to lead one category: auto-decisioning at production scale for financial services. Agents that act, not assist, and never compromise audit, compliance, or predictability.
About LUMIQ LUMIQ is an AI-native financial services company. Through its LiteCone platform and a growing workforce of production AI agents, LUMIQ turns real financial-services roles — insurance underwriter, credit underwriter, claims adjudicator — into agents that are consistent, explainable, compliant, and auditable. The company pairs deep domain expertise across banking, insurance, and capital markets with frontier AI. LUMIQ employs over 350 AI and data specialists, and has offices in New Jersey, Singapore, and Delhi NCR (India).
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Web: www.lumiq.ai
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View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/apac/news-releases/lumiq-raises-strategic-funding-to-become-the-ai-decision-layer-for-financial-services-302805280.html
Consumer confidence has plunged among traditionally optimistic younger adults amid fears for their personal finances and the wider economy, figures show.
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at an overall score of minus 23 in June.
However, the analyst said this was was “misleading as, beneath the surface, there are new signs that confidence is weakening”.
Source: GfK
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: “The biggest fall this month is among those aged 16 to 29, traditionally one of the most optimistic groups.
“Here confidence has dropped 11 points over the past month to minus two, the lowest level seen for two years, driven by large falls in views on both their own personal finances and the wider economy.
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“More broadly, there are now no demographic groups with a positive confidence score, including higher-income households earning £50,000 or more, who have slipped back into negative territory as of June.
“Confidence remains subdued and vulnerable to further economic or political uncertainty.”
Sourve: GfK
Overall, confidence in personal finances over the coming year remained flat at minus two, four points lower than this time last year.
The measures of both personal finances and the economy over the previous 12 months were both slightly down, by two points and three points respectively, “reflecting the sense that things have been extremely tough over the last year for so many”, GfK said.
The only measure to increase was expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months, up two points to minus 36 but still eight points below this time last year.
The major purchase index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, remained at minus 20, four points lower than June last year.
“Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” said Donald Trump on social media after he announced the signing of an interim peace deal with Iran on Sunday. Under the agreement – which Iran acknowledged included a 60-day negotiating period for a final deal – the president said that following retrieval of mines, there would be a “toll free opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.
But many of the finer details remain “unclear”, said The Guardian. There are questions over the “exact timing of the reopening of the maritime route, who will oversee safe passage and whether any conditions will be applied”.
Financial markets have welcomed the announcement, but further volatility could yet hit people’s pockets.
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Have oil prices changed?
The price of oil fell to about $83 (£62) per barrel following Sunday’s announcement, its “lowest since the early days of the war”. Then on Tuesday it dipped below $80. In February, before the first missiles struck Iran, each barrel cost around $73. The price peaked at around $120 at the height of the conflict.
Prices are expected to fall in the wake of a prolonged ceasefire, and there are “real grounds for optimism”, said Politico. Damage to oil-specific infrastructure has been “limited”, meaning it could take “as little as six weeks to resume outflows”.
“So that’s the energy crisis sorted, right?” Not so fast.” A combination of damage to wider infrastructure and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has meant roughly 12 million fewer barrels of oil have been produced each day. And they “won’t magically reappear on the market even if the pact holds”.
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Will this continue?
The “first big test” of the deal will be whether shipping companies will have enough “confidence” to return the use of the strait to pre-war levels, said The New York Times. If successful, this will free the 250 tankers and 330 cargo ships trapped in the Gulf, according to the BBC, and transport oil around the world. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf nations would then need to re-establish “wells, refineries and other infrastructure”.
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Even if all of that were to materialise, European and Asian countries who have historically depended on oil from the region “will face a long wait”. Processing oil takes considerable time. “It is unlikely that the prices of gasoline, diesel and other fuels will return to pre-war levels anytime soon.”
What about inflation?
Despite air fares “surging” and fuel costs “tipping higher”, UK inflation remained at 2.8% in May, said The Independent. This was a “surprise” to economists, who had widely predicted a rise to 3% and “perhaps even beyond” due in part to the war in Iran.
Remaining at this level could imply that the “cost-of-living squeeze will not play out as badly as had been anticipated” earlier this year, even if the “Iran war sent energy costs spiralling”. However, prices are set to rise again later in 2026, leaving savers to make sure their investments are earning an interest rate “well above the rate of inflation”.
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What does this mean for consumers?
Food prices in the UK look to be rising more slowly. Should the Strait of Hormuz open freely, fertiliser, which has “soared in costs” and put pressure on farmers, could fall substantially, said the BBC. Jet fuel has already seen a “small fall in price”, with Northwest Europe jet fuel trading at $1,033 (£780) per tonne, compared with $831 pre-conflict and around $1,840 at its peak.
How will businesses be affected?
Beneath the “encouraging headlines” about inflation control, there is a “hidden crisis for businesses”, said The Telegraph. The Iran war triggered one of the largest energy shocks in history, meaning businesses were “swallowing soaring costs to spare shoppers”.
“Input rises” for producers climbed by “8.7% year on year in May”, larger than the 7.9% in April and the highest in more than three years. On the bright side, this means the economy may avoid a dreaded “wage-price spiral”, but conversely lower margins could lead to increased pressure on the employment market.