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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

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2 charts show why the stock market sell-off isn't done yet

The roaring stock market rally of 2024 has finally hit a pause.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tallied their worst one-day drops since 2022 on Wednesday and extended those losses on Thursday. Over the past 10 days the benchmark S&P 500 is down about 3%, while the Nasdaq is down more than 6%.

The recent pause in the rally’s chug higher aligns with calls from equity strategists in our recently released third volume of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook. Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner noted that in years when the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% in the first half of the year, the second half usually sees an average pullback of about 9%.

Through the end of June, the S&P 500 was up about 14%.

“This choppier market action of late, which we have been anticipating, likely has further to go in terms of price and time,” Lerner wrote in a note to clients on Thursday.

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Tech has been the clear leader of the recent market drawdown. Information Technology and Communication Services are the only two of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 with negative returns over the past month. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Lerner reasoned that the recent sell-off in Tech made sense given how far up the sector had run.

In late June, tech had outperformed the S&P 500 on a rolling two-month basis by the most since 2002, per Lerner’s research. Lerner reasons that, like a rubber band that becomes overstretched, there’s usually a snapback from extreme levels of outperformance in markets.

“When we get that stretched, a little bit of bad news can go a long way,” Lerner said.

The “little bit of news” came via earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) after the bell on Tuesday leading into Wednesday’s sell-off. Lerner noted that the earnings weren’t bad but failed to impress investors, who had a high bar entering this reporting season.

Earnings from Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) expected next week will prove the next test for investor sentiment in the tech sector. Lerner reasoned that, after the market reset over the past few trading sessions, there’s a chance technology’s latest swath of earnings can surpass investors’ now-trimmed expectations.

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“I think the secular story of this bull market is still intact,” Lerner said. “Money will come back there. I just think more likely you need a resting period and kind of a pause that refreshes.”

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 02, 2024 in New York City. All three major stock indexes closed at a loss with the Dow Jones leading the way closing over 350 points falling for a second day as Wall Street has a turbulent start to the second quarter. Both the Dow and S&P 500 had its worst day since March 5th.  (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 2, 2024, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)

BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski also highlighted the likelihood of a pause in stocks’ climb higher in the latest edition of our Chartbook. Similarly to Lerner’s analysis, Belski’s work shows that going back to 1949, the second year of a bull market sees a roughly 9% average pullback. The most recent bull market started in October 2022.

Belski told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the market was “ripe for a pullback from a sentiment perspective.” But to Belski, this is a “buying opportunity.” His research shows that markets typically bounce back an average of 14.5% from the bottom of the second-year bull market drawdowns he studied.

“Stocks will be higher at year-end,” Belski said.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Auto Finance Capital Summit | Insights | Mayer Brown

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Auto Finance Capital Summit | Insights | Mayer Brown

Stuart Litwin will be speaking at the Auto Finance Capital Summit taking place May 11-12 in Nashville, TN. This event brings together capital markets, finance, and treasury leaders across the $1.5 trillion auto finance industry to tackle critical funding challenges — from securitization and warehouse lending to liquidity management, private credit, and capital efficiency.

For more information about the event, please visit the event page.

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Yes, retail investment needs a boost – but the squirrel looks too tame | Nils Pratley

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Yes, retail investment needs a boost – but the squirrel looks too tame | Nils Pratley

Red squirrel characters have a history in the public information game. Older UK readers may recall Tufty, who taught children about road safety in the 1970s. His chum, Willy Weasel, regularly got knocked down by passing cars but clever Tufty always remembered to look both ways.

Now comes Savvy Squirrel, who, with backing from the chancellor and a multi-year lump of advertising spend from the financial services industry, will try “to drive a step-change in how investing is understood, discussed and adopted”, as the blurb puts it. In translation: don’t squirrel everything away in a boring cash Isa but try taking an investment risk or two if you value your long-term financial health.

As with preventing road traffic accidents, the cause is noble. Every study on long-term financial returns reaches the same conclusion: inflation is the investor’s enemy and there is a cost to holding cash for long periods.

One statistical bible is the Equity Gilt Study published by Barclays, and a few numbers demonstrate the point. From 2004 to 2024, cash generated a return of minus 40.5% in real terms (meaning after inflation and including interest paid). By contrast, a conventional diversified portfolio comprising 60% UK equities and 40% gilts increased by 21.6% in real terms. A missed opportunity of 62.1 percentage points is enormous

Tufty the Squirrel and friends, part of a 1970s public information road safety series, is one of the UK’s favourite public information films. Photograph: National Archive/PA

Rachel Reeves’s interest in promoting the virtues of investment lies not only in helping savers but in greasing the wheels of the capital markets. Fair enough: a healthy economy needs a healthy stock market, including one that makes it easy for retail investors to participate. It is slightly ridiculous that the colossal sum of £610bn is estimated to be sitting in cash savings in the UK; it can’t all be rainy-day money or cash parked awaiting a house purchase.

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Many Americans famously follow the stock markets closely and discuss their 401(k) pensions savings plans but, even by European standards, the UK’s retail investment culture lags. Sweden has popularised investment with tax-breaks and other changes. Even supposedly cautious Germans are less inhibited. So, yes, one can applaud the ambition behind the campaign.

But here’s the doubt: it all feels terribly tame.

One can imagine an alternative launch in which Reeves tried to create a buzz by cutting stamp duty on share purchases. There are good reasons to adopt that policy anyway, as argued here many times, but a cut now would grab attention. True, rules for banks and investment firms on giving “targeted guidance” are being loosened to allow more useful advice alongside the “capital at risk” warnings. Yet the current news flow in Isa-land is about HMRC’s pernickety interpretation of the tax treatment of cash held within stocks and shares account. That just creates bad vibes in the wings.

Meanwhile, the campaign’s goals read as wishy-washy. It’s all about “helping people build confidence over time”, apparently. Well, OK, that’s what the market research suggests, but “creating more opportunities for everyday conversations” is limp when, in the outside world, teenagers are trading crypto on their phones and the world is awash with smart apps. The intended audience can surely handle more directness.

As for the squirrel, it may get lost in the forest of meerkats and other CGI creatures deployed by financial services firms. For a campaign that is supposed to be doing something distinctly different, why go with a character which, on first glance, looks generic?

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Back in the pre-smartphone 1970s, there was a certain shock value for the average five-year-old in seeing Willie Weasel lying injured in the road. At least the message about bad consequences was clear and memorable. One wishes the Savvy campaign well, but one fears a conversational squirrel may struggle to be heard.

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German finance minister wants to scrap spousal tax splitting

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German finance minister wants to scrap spousal tax splitting

Last weekend, several thousand people took to the streets in Munich to demonstrate against abortion and assisted suicide. One speaker made an extremely dramatic plea against what he called the “culture of death” that has allegedly taken hold in Germany. One sign of this, the speaker argued, was that the government is planning to abolish a regulation known as “spousal tax splitting.”

Is tax law really relevant to deep philosophical debates on the sanctity of life? It is even a matter of life and death at all? Surely we needn’t go that far? In any case, the intense political uproar surrounding the new debate on whether to abolish spousal tax splitting is notable, even by today’s standards of populist outrage.

An advantage for couples with widely divergent incomes

The row was sparked by Germany’s vice chancellor and finance minister, Lars Klingbeil, of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), who said he wanted to abolish and replace the joint taxation of spouses’ income, a system that has been in place since 1958.

How exactly does spousal tax splitting work? In Germany, married couples (and since 2013, couples in civil partnerships), can choose to have their income assessed jointly by the tax authorities.

It means that the taxable income for both spouses together is halved – as if both partners had each earned an equal half of the income. Their tax liability is then determined by simply doubling the income tax due on one half.

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As people who earn more pay higher taxes in Germany, this system benefits couples where one partner (and often this is still the man) earns significantly more than the other (in practice often the woman).

Lars Klingbeil
Lars Klingbeil thinks spousal splitting is outdated and costs the state too muchImage: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa/picture alliance

Costs of up to €25 billion per year

If for example one partner earns €60,000 ($70,512) a year and the other partner earns nothing, the couple will be taxed as if they earned €30,000 each. In this example, the couple would save nearly €5,800 in taxes per year compared to the amount they would owe if both partners filed their taxes separately. According to the Finance Ministry, spousal tax splitting costs the government a total of up to €25 billion annually.

Some critics have long viewed splitting as a tool to keep women out of the labor market, because the more a woman earns, the larger her tax burden becomes. Klingbeil seems to agree, arguing on ARD television in late March that the system was “out of step with the times.” The spousal splitting system reflects “a view of women and families that is completely at odds with my own,” he said.

Chancellor Merz said to be in favor of splitting

On Monday of this week, Klingbeil got some surprising support on this from Johannes Winkel, head of the youth wing of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

“Given the demographic reality, the government should create incentives to ensure that both partners in a relationship are employed,” Winkel told the Funke Media Group. “In the future, tax relief should primarily be granted to married couples when they are facing hardships related to raising children.”

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But the chancellor is a vocal skeptic of the proposal. “I am not convinced by the claim that joint filing for married couples discourages women from working,” Friedrich Merz said at a conference organized by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. “Marriage is a relationship based on shared income and mutual support. And in a marriage, income must be treated as a joint income for tax purposes, not separately.”

Berlin under pressure to fix pensions, health care and taxes

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Klingbeil’s alternative plan

At around 74%, the labor force participation rate for women in Germany is one of the highest in Europe, but half of them work part-time.

Klingbeil’s idea is to replace the existing system with a more flexible approach: Both partners would be able to distribute tax-free income among themselves in such a way that it minimizes their tax liability. This would allow the couple to continue enjoying a tax advantage, albeit not to the same extent as before. And whether one partner earns more than the other would become less important.

However, it remains to be seen whether Klingbeil will be able to push through his proposal. Aside from Germany, similar regulations offering tax benefits to couples exist in Poland, Luxembourg, Portugal and France.

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This article was originally written in German.

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