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How hot is too hot? New weather forecasting tool can help figure that out

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How hot is too hot? New weather forecasting tool can help figure that out

People rest at a cooling station in Portland, Oregon during the deadly Northwest heat dome of 2021. Climate change has made heat risks more dangerous across the country. A new heat forecasting tool could help people stay safe.

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People rest at a cooling station in Portland, Oregon during the deadly Northwest heat dome of 2021. Climate change has made heat risks more dangerous across the country. A new heat forecasting tool could help people stay safe.

KATHRYN ELSESSER/AFP via Getty Images

This summer, people across the U.S. will have a new way to keep track of dangerous heat headed their way through a new heat warning system called HeatRisk. The tool, developed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), will be used by National Weather Service offices across the country to give people an understanding of when heat goes from uncomfortable to dangerous.

HeatRisk incorporates a host of factors that make heat dangerous to human health, beyond just temperature. It considers elements like humidity, which reduces people’s ability to cool by sweating, and whether a 90-degree day comes in April versus July — hot weather is more dangerous early in the season before people’s bodies have adjusted.

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“For the first time, we’ll be able to know how hot is too hot for health, and not just today, but for the coming weeks,” says Dr. Aaron Bernstein, director of the National Center for Environmental Health and a pediatrician.

Hopefully, he says, the new tool will be easy to understand. It uses a color-coded scale from zero (green) to five (magenta). At zero, the heat conditions are likely not risky for most people. At 2, or yellow, risks are growing for those who are sensitive to heat—like children, or people with medical conditions that make them heat-sensitive. Four, or bright magenta, signals the heat could hurt nearly anyone. That threshold can be crossed when temperatures go above historical highs, or when extreme conditions stretch for several days in a row.

The National Weather Service (NWS) will be able to issue HeatRisk warnings a full week ahead of dangerous heat. Climate change, driven primarily by human burning of fossil fuels, has increased the intensity, duration, and danger of heat waves across North America.

That extra planning time “will be a game-changer,” says John Balbus, director of the Office of Climate Change and Health Equity, an office within the Department of Health and Human Services. It will allow crucial extra time for cities to ramp up their emergency response plans and for individuals to think about how to protect themselves, he says.

Why is a heat warning useful?

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When it gets hot, people end up in the emergency room—or even die. Last summer, the hottest ever recorded in many parts of the U.S., nearly 120,000 people went to the emergency room for heat-related concerns—nearly twice as many as in the previous two decades, on average.

High temperatures are a major factor, but only part of the puzzle, says Ambarish Vaidyanathan, a researcher at the CDC who helped develop HeatRisk. Humidity matters too: when the air is saturated with water, people still sweat—but sweat droplets can’t evaporate, so people can’t cool down.

Unusually high overnight temperatures prevent people from getting relief from the heat. People’s past exposure to heat matters, too. The body can adjust to high heat up to a point, but that acclimatization takes time. So a 100-degree day in April poses more health risks than the same temperature in July because most people haven’t had the time to adjust.

Where people live, and what heat conditions they’re used to, also play a role in their vulnerability to heat. “90 degrees in Miami is not the same as 90 degrees in Portland, Maine,” says Dr. Mandy Cohen, director of the CDC.

HeatRisk takes all of these factors into account. A town in Michigan, for example, might get a red, or level-3 warning, when the mercury reads 85 degrees Fahrenheit, but a town in Florida with similar conditions might only get a risk warning of yellow, or 1.

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Paul Charlton is an emergency medicine physician who works with rural communities in New Mexico. He thinks HeatRisk could be useful to his patients, emergency managers, and clinicians.

“A lot of emergency departments would know how to care for one person that came in with heat stroke,” he says. “But a lot of emergency departments would not be as well prepared to take care of ten or 50 or 100 or a thousand people that might be coming in.” That could—and did—happen during really extreme heat, like the 2021 heat dome in the Pacific Northwest. Charlton says having a better risk forecast would give people like him invaluable time to plan and prepare for potentially catastrophic heat.

Where did HeatRisk come from?

Scientists at the National Weather Service and the CDC developed the tool. It was conceptualized a decade ago after some local weather bureaus in the western U.S. realized they needed a better way to warn people about upcoming heat waves.

HeatRisk has been tested and refined over the years across the West since its inception in 2013. Now, school systems in California use it to decide when outdoor activities are safe. Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix metro, has incorporated its use into its heat management plans.

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NWS and CDC scientists looked at heat-related deaths around the country and analyzed the weather conditions when people died. That allowed them to find links between people’s risk of dying and heat-related factors like temperature, humidity, and how long heatwaves lasted for hundreds of places across the U.S. They used those relationships to predict how different hot-weather conditions will impact people’s health in different parts of the country, at different times of year.

In Phoenix, a recent analysis showed that about two-thirds of heat-related deaths happened on red or purple HeatRisk days, says Michael Staudenmaier, chief of science for the NWS’s Western Regional Headquarters. But more than 30% of the heat-related deaths occurred in the yellow and orange categories when heat conditions were bad but not anywhere near record-breaking extremes, he says. It shows there is a “wide range of temperatures where heat-related impacts can occur,” even in places well-accustomed to it.

It shows that people can be vulnerable to heat illness or even death at levels much lower than they might think, Staudenmaier says.

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Rep. Tom Kean returns to Congress, says depression is why he went missing for months

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Rep. Tom Kean returns to Congress, says depression is why he went missing for months

Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., R-N.J., arrives at the U.S. Capitol with his wife Rhonda Kean on June 30.

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New Jersey Republican Thomas Kean Jr. said it was struggles with depression that kept him away from Congress for nearly four months with no explanation to his constituents.

Kean last voted on March 5th, missing numerous votes and other appearances on Capitol Hill since. In April, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he had spoken to Kean and that he was dealing with an undisclosed medical issue. Kean was not spotted until recently at his New Jersey home.

Speaking from the House floor on Tuesday, the second term lawmaker said he had checked into a hospital for testing several months ago after health concerns, and was subsequently diagnosed with depression.

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“Talking about myself has never come naturally,” Kean said. “But I believe that I owe an explanation to the people of New Jersey’s seventh district, to my colleagues in this chamber and to the American people for my absence.”

Kean said he originally did not think his diagnosis would result in a long-term absence. Doctors recommended he remain in the hospital to address the illness, and it was his fastest route to recovery, he said.

“It is physical. It is emotional,” he said. “And until you experience it yourself, it is difficult to fully understand how powerful this illness could be.”

Kean said he miscalculated how long he would be away, estimating it would be a matter of weeks. However, he said like the roughly 48 million Americans who have battled the illness, he learned there is no timeline for recovery.

“I am grateful that I accepted help,” Kean said. “Today I stand before you healthier, stronger and excited to return to the work that I love.”

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Kean’s absence proved a struggle for House Republicans, who contend with a razor thin majority to pass party priorities. For weeks, Kean and his office declined to share additional details on why he was away, feeding rumors and speculation and raising interest in a member known for his privacy.

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Michigan governor threatens to pull troops from D.C. if used for Trump task force

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Michigan governor threatens to pull troops from D.C. if used for Trump task force

Members of the National Guard stand in front of a large image of U.S. President Donald Trump that hangs from the the Robert F. Kennedy Department of Justice Building on May 18, 2026 in Washington, D.C.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — In a strongly worded letter to the head of Michigan’s National Guard, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer reiterated troops from her state are only to be used for operations surrounding America 250 celebrations in Washington, D.C., and not for President Trump’s long-running — and controversial — joint task force to fight crime. She said that she would pull her troops from the city if that is not the case, in the letter obtained by NPR.

“Please take all necessary measures to ensure the Michigan National Guard is only supporting the narrow and limited America 250 Mission and is in no way supporting the D.C. Safe and Beautiful Mission,” wrote Gov. Whitmer, referencing the official name for the federal task force.

Trump deployed hundreds of troops to Washington, D.C., in August of 2025, in what experts said was a stunning departure from governing norms. He said he did so to address rampant crime, despite declining crime rates at the time. The number of troops in the city has increased over time to more than 4,800 from Washington, D.C. and almost two dozen states, which until recently were exclusively Republican-led.

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Michigan — which has 161 guard members currently in the city — is one of four Democratic-led states that sent members of their National Guard to D.C. in recent weeks, ahead of an influx of tourists for America 250 celebrations. North Carolina and Kentucky each sent one member of their guard, while Minnesota sent more than a hundred last week.

Kentucky confirmed to NPR Monday that it had recalled its one guard member over the weekend, after that member was “diverted to the task force by the federal government without the knowledge or consent of Gov. Beshear of the Kentucky Guard,” Scottie Ellis, a spokesperson for Gov. Beshear, wrote to NPR in an email.

When contacted by NPR, spokespeople for each respective Democratic governor’s office made it clear that their guard members were sent to help specifically with America 250, not for law enforcement purposes as part of the larger ongoing federal joint task force operation. All four states have been clear about their opposition to the Trump administration’s ongoing deployment of National Guard troops to D.C., filing an amicus brief in support of litigation challenging it as recently as May.

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Senate Ethics Committee dismisses complaint against Sen. Ruben Gallego

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Senate Ethics Committee dismisses complaint against Sen. Ruben Gallego

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., walks out of the Senate chamber on Oct. 1, 2025.

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The Senate Ethics Committee has dismissed a complaint brought against Sen. Ruben Gallego involving allegations of campaign finance violations and potential sexual misconduct.

The allegations against the Arizona Democrat were brought to the committee in April by a fellow member of Congress, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla. But in a letter to Gallego dated June 26, the committee said it had uncovered no wrongdoing.

“Based on the investigation of the Committee, the Committee did not find evidence that your actions violated Federal law, Senate rules, or related standards of conduct,” the panel wrote.

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The panel also said it appreciated Gallego’s “full cooperation” throughout the investigation.

Gallego welcomed the findings, saying in a statement that the dismissal “reaffirms what I have said about these accusations from the beginning: they were right-wing conspiracies peddled by far-right activists like Anna Paulina Luna, the White House, and their allies.”

“I look forward to an apology from Rep. Luna for weaponizing the ethics process while refusing to investigate historic corruption that’s making life harder for families,” he continued.

Whispers about potential misconduct by Gallego began to circulate in April following the resignation of Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif. Swalwell stepped down in response to a swell of sexual assault and misconduct allegations. NPR has not independently verified the allegations against Swalwell, but he has adamantly denied them.

Swalwell and Gallego were close friends, and during Swalwell’s short-lived 2020 presidential campaign, it was Gallego who served as campaign chair.

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In the immediate aftermath of Swalwell’s resignation, Gallego denied knowledge of any alleged history of sexual misconduct, though he acknowledged to reporters that their close friendship may have made it difficult for him to accept rumors about Swalwell and his behavior toward women.

“My friendship with him, our family’s friendship together with him, clouded my judgment, and I was wrong — I deeply, deeply regret that,” Gallego said.

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