Politics
Arizona and Nevada make up 3% of the U.S. population — and are vital to picking a president
When President Biden flies into Nevada on Monday and to Arizona the following day, he’s likely to compliment the West’s natural beauty, pay homage to the unmatched political power of the Culinary Workers Union and nod to local Democratic elected officials.
Another truth about his visit to the two Southwestern states may remain unspoken: Though together they are home to only about 3% of the U.S. population, Arizona and Nevada are expected to have an outsize influence on the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.
With Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and Nevada’s six, the states collectively hold more voting power than Georgia, another closely contested state that both Democrats and Republicans believe they can win — as Biden and former President Trump engage in the first rematch of presidential contenders in nearly 70 years.
Having secured enough delegates last week to become their parties’ presumptive nominees, the two oldest major-party candidates in American history are facing off in a presidential rematch that most people saw coming and many hoped to avoid.
The race pits a president languishing in the polls against a challenger facing multiple criminal indictments. It gives citizens asking for change a chance to vote for more of the same, unless they opt for a long-shot third-party candidate.
Many Americans have said they don’t like it. They wish the stress of a country that feels perpetually at odds would just stop.
“Everything is kind of haywire and crazy,” Trevean Rhodes, a security guard at a Las Vegas supermarket, said last week. “Normalcy is a thing of the past.”
Nevada has gone to the Democrats in four straight presidential elections, but by thin margins. Biden won Arizona in 2020, though Republicans prevailed in all but two of the last 12 presidential cycles there.
Recent public polling in both battleground states shows Biden trailing Trump, but both sides have said they expect close contests. And both states have already received substantial attention, especially from the Democrats.
Vice President Kamala Harris visited Phoenix recently to talk about abortion, and in late January stopped in Las Vegas, where she called Trump a threat to democracy. Biden’s trip this week will take him to Reno, Las Vegas and Phoenix.
His events in Arizona are expected to focus on Latino voter engagement, sources familiar with his travel told The Times. The trip comes amid a $30-million advertising barrage from Biden’s campaign across all of the battleground states. (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia are the others.)
Former President Trump, in Las Vegas for the Nevada GOP’s caucuses last month, blasted his rival’s handling of migrants entering the U.S. from Mexico.
(Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
Trump, stopping in Las Vegas before Nevada’s GOP caucuses in early February, slammed Biden’s handling of the mounting number of people crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, and called human trafficking of migrants “a weapon of mass destruction” against the U.S.
Even as the candidates gear up for their marathon to election day with more than seven months to go, interviews with more than two dozen voters, elected officials and political consultants in Arizona and Nevada revealed a collective ennui about Biden vs. Trump 2.0.
“There’s a voter fatigue, I think,” said Arizona House Minority Whip Nancy Gutierrez, a Democrat. “People are just sick of being bombarded, with no bipartisanship and no working together on many of the same issues.”
Democrats say Biden must do more to highlight what they claim as his accomplishments, including job creation tied in part to an infrastructure law that brought public works to Nevada and Arizona, and passage of a bipartisan gun control measure that increases background checks for younger firearm buyers.
They also cite the president’s efforts to protect access to abortion and contraception via executive orders after the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning Roe vs. Wade, and his support for a robust U.S. presence internationally, including through aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Republicans plan to rely on what they contend was America’s stronger standing during Trump’s four-year tenure in Washington, citing high levels of employment and lower inflation as hallmarks of his administration.
Trump, working to stay connected to his base in Arizona after his failed efforts to overturn his 2020 defeat, appears at a right-wing gathering in Phoenix in 2021.
(Ross D. Franklin / Associated Press)
Trump also claims credit for building up the wall dividing the U.S. and Mexico to reduce illegal crossings, as well as for pushing through $3.2 trillion in tax cuts, appointing Supreme Court justices who rejected the nationwide right to abortion, pulling the U.S. out of trade agreements he said hurt American workers, and clearing the way for the U.S. to become the world’s top producer of oil and natural gas.
The state of the economy, a perennial centerpiece of presidential electioneering, is cited more than any other issue as the top concern in Nevada, which saw its unemployment rate spike to more than 30% during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unemployment in the state is just over 5% now, still the highest in the country. But even some with jobs express concern that high inflation has made it harder for them to pay their bills.
At a supermarket on the east side of Las Vegas last week, two men demonstrated the breadth of the disagreement about how the economy is doing.
Alberto Cardona said he didn’t care about all of the economists saying inflation had tapered off.
The electrician said they were “lying,” and he saw proof, literally, in the pudding. He said he paid 99 cents for a carton of pudding at the supermarket when Trump was president. Now it costs $1.47. He blamed Biden and other Democrats for the upswing, saying they supercharged inflation by overspending “and printing money that they don’t have.”
“Everything’s terrible right now. I’m living paycheck to paycheck, trying to support my family,” said Cardona, 50. He said he would vote for Trump.
A few minutes later, Fernando Alcazar pronounced himself ready to vote for Biden.
“Look at what he’s done and where the country is headed,” said the 52-year-old gambling industry consultant. “The economy is good, and we’re going in the right direction.”
Though inflation has climbed much higher in earlier eras, the low inflation of the last two decades or so has made the recent upswing feel disabling, especially to younger people, said Stephen Miller, research director at the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
But he said people’s views of the economy could be reshaped in the coming months.
“Between now and early fall, if grocery prices come down and gasoline prices come down, the mood will change,” Miller said. “We’ll see.”
Rep. Steven Horsford, a Democrat who represents Clark County in the U.S. House and chairs the Congressional Black Caucus, said that’s why it’s key for Biden to remain on point.
“You can’t only focus on the accomplishments, of which there are many,” Horsford said. “You’ve also got to talk about what you plan to do going forward.”
Biden smiles for supporters’ selfies at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, last week after speaking on improving healthcare and lowering prescription drug prices.
(John Locher / Associated Press)
In both Nevada and Arizona, Democrats say access to abortion should be a winning issue for Biden. They described a wave of anger among their voters that followed the reversal of Roe.
Organizers hope to put measures supporting abortion access on the ballot in both states. Though a Nevada law protects access to abortion there, a political action committee is gathering signatures to qualify a measure that would enshrine abortion access into the state Constitution. The measure would apply for pregnancies of up to 24 weeks. Activists in Arizona are charting a similar course.
Republicans have a ballot measure of their own in Nevada: one that would require voters to present identification when they go to the polls.
The proposal responds to belief among conservatives that elections have seen widespread tainting by ineligible voters casting ballots. Though claims of such voter fraud have seldom been substantiated, they are accepted as a matter of faith, and are therefore highly motivating, to many in the GOP.
Immigration is a major campaign issue again. Here, migrants from Colombia wait at the southern border for U.S. officials to transport them to apply for asylum.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
With migrant crossings from Mexico to the U.S. hitting a high in recent months, even Democrats in cities well north of the border have expressed concern about the burden newcomers put on infrastructure and public services.
Republicans plan to focus intensely on the issue.
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is running for U.S. Senate in Arizona’s Republican primary this summer, said Biden’s policies supporting migrants underscore an inherent unfairness in the minds of voters he’s met. Along with the economy, Lamb said, nothing angers his constituents more than the sense of disorder at ports of entry and in communities where migrants enter the country.
“They’re very angry with the misappropriation of tax funds used to put these people up in hotel rooms, to give them transportation on airplanes and to give them, in some cases, gift cards, while we have American veterans and we have Americans who are homeless and are struggling,” Lamb said.
Democrats like Alcazar, the gambling industry consultant in Vegas, said it’s unfair and inaccurate to blame Biden for the surge of migrants. He noted that the White House had hammered out an immigration overhaul deal with congressional Republicans that included increased border security, only to have the GOP back away when Trump signaled his opposition.
“It was their chance to step up and do something about the issue,” Alcazar said. “But they didn’t follow through. Instead, they wanted Trump politics.”
In a nod to Arizona’s many Republican voters, Biden honored the late Sen. John McCain last fall in remarks on democracy in Tempe, Ariz. The two served across the Senate aisle from each other for over two decades.
(Evan Vucci / Associated Press)
As the oldest president at 81, Biden has faced repeated questions about his mental acuity and fitness to serve.
Robert Bailey, a political independent, said he has voted for candidates of both parties in the past, but wouldn’t consider Biden this time.
“He can’t remember things he needs to remember,” said Bailey, 57, a street performer in Las Vegas. “People just help him stay in office and get his job done.”
Some say Trump, 77, also shows signs of aging.
But more challenging critiques grow out of the dozens of criminal charges he faces — on allegations of illegality related to his attempts to reverse his 2020 election loss in Georgia and his stashing of classified government documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort and of obstruction of justice; of having a role in the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent Congress’ certification of Biden’s victory; and of falsifying records related to hush money allegedly paid to porn star Stormy Daniels.
“We understand that Trump wants to take us backwards,” said Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, a Democrat. “You have Donald Trump running a campaign of creating doomsday scenarios and seeking retribution against his political opponents.”
Romero said Biden has a list of accomplishments that her constituents will feel the benefits of for decades. She cited the nearly $100 million that’s flowed to her city from the infrastructure and inflation-reduction measures he’s championed.
In Nevada, meanwhile, the Biden campaign will remind 12,000 residents about the student loan relief they got from the administration, and tell 22,000 seniors not to forget how Democrats capped the price of their insulin prescriptions.
Diane Farajian, 65, said that Trump was slow to respond to the coronavirus surge, and that he makes her uneasy. The retired Las Vegas blackjack dealer plans to vote for Biden, though she said she usually supports Republicans for the White House.
“We need good people in there,” Farajian said. “There was just so much trouble when Trump was in office.”
Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, may have the deciding vote on Todd Blanche’s confirmation as attorney general. Even a single Republican “no” vote would block Mr. Blanche’s nomination, and the senator said after Wednesday’s meeting that he had not made up his mind.
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It was 2:35 am et Sunday.
The phone rang, yanking me out of deep slumber.
Calls like these are never good.
In the split second before I answered the phone, my mind traveled to the obvious place for any journalist who covers Capitol Hill and gets a call at that hour.
LINDSEY GRAHAM, SOUTH CAROLINA SENATOR WHO ROSE FROM SMALL-TOWN ROOTS TO GOP POWER BROKER, DIES AT 71
Former U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham hugs his sister Darline Graham Nordone on June 1, 2015, in South Carolina. (Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)
Surely it was about former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
McConnell has been out of service and nowhere to be found for weeks — after being hospitalized with an unspecified illness. The internet was rife with conspiracy theories and conjecture. And, considering the dearth of information, I suspected the worst.
My longtime colleague Jodie Curtis was on the line when I picked up. Jodie is a senior figure at Fox, forced into weekend overnight assignment editor duty because of an illness. Jodie calling to tell me that Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) was dead.
“Graham?” I asked incredulously. “Not McConnell?”
Emerging from my stupor, I instinctively presumed this might be about the infirm, Kentucky Republican. You’d have better odds presuming that overnight call was about McConnell than hitting an exacta wheel at Churchill Downs.
My instincts immediately kicked in.
What if this was psy-ops by the Russians, Chinese or Iranians. A rouse. A hoax. A hack.
I told my colleague to just wait a moment while we confirmed. It would be easy to get this wrong.
Back in the 1990s, lawmakers “killed” comedian Bob Hope on the House floor, prematurely announcing his death during special orders speeches. Yours truly – and everyone else in Washington – prematurely reported the death of the late Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D-OH). She suffered from a catastrophic brain aneurism. Yet after they removed the Congresswoman from life support, she continued to live for a few hours before dying.
However, it became clear that Lindsey Graham was indeed dead. I was quickly on the air. When asked about the shock of Graham passing, I invoked a Native American adage: Death comes. And it’s always out of season.
Lindsey Graham was gone. But who would succeed him on Capitol Hill?
Think all in the family. At least for now.
Sens. Katie Britt (R-AL) and Tim Scott (R-SC) both implored the late senator’s kid sister Darline Graham to follow her brother. President Trump believed it would be a fitting tribute to the senator. So did South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) – who was in charge the appointment.
“It’s my honor to ask his sister to finish his work now,” said McMaster.
Darline Graham is a political neophyte. Lindsey Graham adopted his sister after their parents died – and Darline was a teenager.
“Lindsey has always been there for me. And now I will be there for him,” said now Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC).
Lindsey Graham was his sister’s caretaker. Now she’s the caretaker of his Senate seat until January.
But who’s next?
South Carolina has a small Congressional delegation. Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) quickly excluded himself from the immediate running, noting the importance of remaining in the House. Plucking one of South Carolina’s House GOP members and appointing them to the Senate is a problem for the narrow Republican majority. The Constitution bars appointments to the House. So McMaster would have diminished the GOP’s slim majority had he picked a House member to fill in for Lindsey Graham. It would take months to conduct a special election to fill the vacant House seat.
Appointing Darline Graham solves that problem.
Reps. Russell Fry (R-SC), Nancy Mace (R-SC) and Ralph Norman (R-SC) are all interested in running for the full term. South Carolina will hold a snap primary in mid August. The winner will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November. Lindsey Graham had just secured the Republican nomination for a fifth term last month.
President Trump’s influence will play an outsized role in who gets the nod. He’s already singled out Fry.
But the election will look a little different this fall. November will mark the first time since the mid-1950s that either Lindsey Graham or late, legendary Sen. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) isn’t on the ballot in the Palmetto State.
The Senate met for the first time Monday afternoon since Graham’s passing.
“Lord, we remember with gratitude his commitment to the responsibilities entrusted to him and the many ways he sought to serve the people of this country. Give comfort, strength and peace to his family, friends, colleagues and all who mourn his passing,” prayed Senate Chaplain Barry Black.
The Senate shrouded Graham’s desk with a black cloak. A bouquet of white roses rested on the desk, signifying a new beginning without a Senate titan.
“The halls of the Senate already feel empty without him,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
‘THIS IS NOT NORMAL’: AOC UNLOADS ON MCCONNELL’S PROLONGED ABSENCE
Former Sen. Lindsey Graham attends a press conference on border security at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. on December 7, 2023. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Well wishers left notecards and flowers outside Graham’s office in the Russell Senate Office Building.
Senators praised Graham’s tenacity.
“He didn’t want to just argue about things. He wanted to actually solve things,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) on Fox.
Even until the end.
Over the weekend, Graham appeared to forge a deal on a Russia sanctions measure.
“This could be well, this could well be the end of the war in Ukraine. It could put all the pressure on Russia to finally end their illegal war of aggression,” predicted Sen. Angus King (I-ME).
Lindsey Graham first won a seat in Congress in 1994 as part of the “Republican Revolution.” That’s the historic class which flipped control of the House for the first time in 40 years. Graham and Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) are the only members from that 1994 class still serving in Congress.
Graham earned a national profile barely four years after arriving in Washington. House GOP leaders tapped Graham to serve as one of the House “managers,” prosecuting articles of impeachment for President Clinton in the Senate.
“Impeachment is not about punishment,” argued Graham before the Senate in January, 1999. “Impeachment is about cleansing the office.”
Three years after that, Graham left the House. He became one of 100 in the Senate. But his colleagues conceded that the institution felt hollow at just 99.
“I am comforted by the knowledge that in the end, he has just changed his address. And that one day, Mr. President….” said Thune on the floor, pausing for ten seconds. “We will laugh together again.”
The Leader’s voice then cracked as he fought back tears.
“Mr. President, I yield the floor,” Thune whispered.
By Tuesday afternoon, Darline Graham became the 2,022nd senator in American history. But the first to immediately succeed her brother.
“He always said that his greatest accomplishment was the way that Darline turned out,” said Britt.
“I’m glad that there will be another Sen. Graham and that Darline will serve with us,” said
Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE). “That’ll allow for some continuity.”
Graham’s passing leaves a Congressional chasm.
“It will be difficult to pass anything without Sen. Graham because he’s been such a significant voice in the Senate,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).
It’s unclear if any of that will fall to the Senate’s newest member.
LINDSEY GRAHAM’S SISTER CARRIES ON LATE SENATOR’S WORK, BECOMING SOUTH CAROLINA’S FIRST FEMALE SENATOR
Darline Graham Nordone speaks during a press conference outside the governor’s South Carolina State House office in Columbia. (Grant Baldwin/Getty Images)
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Darline Graham joined her brother’s side when he briefly ran for President in 2015. She says Lindsey taught her how to ride a bike while growing up.
“He would hold on to the bicycle as I pedaled. And he’d run along beside of me. Give me a big push and shout ‘Keep pedaling! Keep pedaling!’ said the new senator. ” And then he was the one who comforted me when I stopped pedaling and fell off the bicycle.”
Today, Darline Graham is again hopping onto that bicycle to finish Lindsey Graham’s term.
You can almost hear the late senator, in his “upstate” twang shouting to his sister “Keep pedaling! Keep pedaling!”
Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a commanding lead in the California governor’s race in a new poll, which also shows broad voter support for a ballot proposition to reform the state’s landmark environmental law to speed up housing and infrastructure.
The survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, released Wednesday night, focused primarily on questions related to climate change and environmental policies.
The results show Californians have a strong distaste for building data centers for artificial intelligence technology, and largely favor the state’s efforts to protect the environment and cut emissions — with some exceptions.
The survey showed Becerra with a big lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. Becerra, a longtime Democratic officeholder, received support from 61% of likely voters, compared with 36% for Hilton, a populist conservative who once advised a British prime minister.
Gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton speaks at the National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference in L.A. on Wednesday.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
The results are not surprising in a state where Democratic voters significantly outnumber Republicans. The GOP has not won a statewide election since 2008.
Just 2% of likely voters said they were unsure which candidate to support in the November election. The poll results skewed heavily partisan, with more than 9 in 10 Democratic and Republican voters picking their party’s respective candidate. Most independent voters leaned toward Becerra, 60%, over Hilton, 34%.
The results are similar to data from a poll conducted just before the June 2 primary election that asked voters to pick between the two candidates. In that survey, 52% said they supported Becerra and 31% were for Hilton.
In a statement Wednesday, Hilton characterized the race as “wide open,” contending that Becerra’s support was weaker than the poll’s headline figures would indicate.
“Instead of a 36-year career politician, we need a positive, energetic problem-solver with business experience and plans to make our state ‘Califordable’ — that’s me,” Hilton said.
Becerra spokesman Jonathan Underland said in a statement that “Californians got to know Xavier Becerra during the primary, and they’re ready to make him their next governor. We’re keeping our eyes on the prize — hitting the trail every day ’til November to turn that support into votes.”
Support for CEQA reform
A ballot measure aimed at reforming the California Environmental Quality Act to speed up construction notched a strong showing in the poll.
Nearly three-quarters of likely voters, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents, said that they would vote for Proposition 45. The measure would shorten windows for environmental review, public comment and legal challenges for certain housing, transportation, water infrastructure and other projects.
“At this early stage in the campaign, California voters are feeling more aligned with Democratic candidates on the environment, and it shows in the polling,” said PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare. “But strong support for Proposition 45 reveals their desire to balance environmental priorities with housing and infrastructure needs.”
Strong data center opposition
The poll found large majorities of Californians do not want new data centers to support the AI boom built in their area; 44% of adults say they “strongly oppose” such projects, and 29% “somewhat oppose” them.
The majority opposition holds across political parties, geographic regions, gender, race and income. It’s especially pronounced in the Inland Empire, where plans for a 950,000-square-foot data center came to a halt after fierce resident pushback. Three-quarters of people surveyed in that region said they oppose building new data centers.
“Every day, we are hearing about how local communities across the nation are responding to plans for data centers,” Baldassare said. “Californians have weighed in and they share this growing concern.”
Support for environmental policies — except if they cost more
The poll also shows strong, if somewhat qualified, support for California’s efforts to reduce climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions and protect the environment.
Three-quarters of adults said policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been a good thing overall, and 65% said they support California leaders’ efforts to make their own environmental policies separate from the federal government.
While most respondents — 62% — said they favor a law requiring 100% of the state’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources within the next two decades, just 38% said they were willing to pay more for electricity sourced from renewables.
“With energy prices spiking and affordability a growing concern, Californians are just not willing to pay more for renewable energy,” Baldassare said. A near-unanimous majority, 96%, said the cost of energy — including gasoline, natural gas and electricity — is a problem.
Newsom’s move to ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles in the state by 2035 also appears to have fallen out of favor. Two-thirds of Californians oppose the policy, a significant slip in approval from 2021, when a PPIC survey showed 49% supported the move.
Still, majorities of likely voters — 53% and 51%, respectively — said they approve of Newsom’s and the state Legislature’s handling of environmental issues.
At 28%, President Trump’s approval rating on the environment was much lower. In his second term, Trump has moved to slash environmental regulations, including easing pollution regulations on coal-fired power plants and pushing for oil drilling off California’s coast.
“Given this ratings gap, it’s not surprising that Californians want to see the state take the lead on climate change policy,” Baldassare said.
The survey polled 1,578 California adults, 1,003 of whom were likely voters, in English and Spanish from June 29 to July 6 and had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points in either direction.
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