Politics
Poll: Immigration debate deeply divides California Democrats
Immigration and border security issues unify Republican voters while dividing Democratic voters in California, a statewide poll has found.
The findings of the new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, illustrate some of the political difficulties President Biden faces in dealing with the large number of unauthorized migrants crossing the U.S. southern border.
Even in California, a Democratic stronghold, registered voters by 62% to 30% say U.S. borders are not secure in preventing people from entering the country illegally, the poll found. The majority who say the border is not secure is even larger among likely voters.
Voters who support former President Trump, are conservative or identify as Republicans are nearly unanimous in saying the border is not secure. Among strongly conservative voters, 88% say the border is not secure, versus 8% who say it is.
Democrats, liberals and voters who support Biden are more evenly divided. Among California voters who identify as strongly liberal, 54% say the border is secure; 30% say it is not.
Democrats also split on the question of whether unauthorized immigrants create a burden for the country. Overall, 42% of registered voters say migrants are a “major burden,” 30% say they are a “minor burden,” and 22% say they are not a burden, the poll found.
“The findings show that immigration is not clear-cut even in California, whose reputation as a sanctuary state often colors discussion on the issue,” said G. Cristina Mora, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies.
The divide among Democrats could signal trouble for Biden on the 2024 campaign trail, although more so in other states than in California, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “The odds of a [Republican] carrying the state are very long,” he said.
In California, the effect is more likely to play out in competitive congressional elections, which could help determine the House majority. Those include the race to fill the seat of Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who is running for U.S. Senate, as well as competitive districts in northern Los Angeles County and the Central Valley. Republican candidates in those districts could center immigration issues as part of their platforms, DiCamillo said.
“This issue is one that could play to the Republicans’ favor,” he noted.
As the number of unauthorized immigrants crossing the border has increased, Biden has come under fire from Republicans, who cast his border policies as weak, but also from some fellow Democrats.
Democratic mayors of New York and Chicago, among other large cities, have said services are buckling under a steady swell of migrants and have criticized the federal government for its handling of the issue.
In Congress, Republicans have been insisting that Biden agree to major changes in immigration policy, especially regarding the legal right of migrants to claim asylum in the U.S. In the Senate, Republicans have insisted on a border agreement as their price for voting in favor of sending additional aid to Ukraine, a high priority for Biden.
Unauthorized migration across the U.S. southern border hit record levels in fiscal 2023, which ended in September, topping 2 million for the second year in a row.
Many of the migrants who arrive at the southern border seek asylum, claiming persecution in their home countries. But the issue does not end at the border: The thousands of daily arrivals have overwhelmed an aging immigration system and created a backlog of asylum cases. Asylum seekers who are released into the U.S. and are given a court date are waiting years, if not a decade, to appear before a judge.
Biden has indicated a willingness to accept at least some of the Republican demands, which has angered some Democrats and immigration advocates.
Reaching an agreement remains an uphill battle, however, and the poll demonstrates how the issue consolidates the Republican voting bloc while dividing Democrats.
Voters are split over their view of the nation’s asylum laws, the poll found. Republican voters, conservatives and voters who support Trump agree that the laws are too lenient.
Democrats, meanwhile, are split: 17% say the law is too lenient, 29% say it’s about right, and 33% say it’s too restrictive. However, among those who identify as strongly liberal, a majority, 56%, say the law is too restrictive, and 6% call it too lenient, while 24% say it is about right.
Views of the asylum laws do not vary much across lines of race or ethnicity, the poll found.
The poll also found widespread skepticism that new laws would be effective in reducing the number of migrants arriving at the border: 45% of voters think new laws would be effective; 42% say they would not. Liberal voters are much more likely than conservatives to say that new laws would not be effective.
Immigrants are more likely than native-born voters to say that new laws would have an impact: 53% of California voters who were born in another country say they would be effective, while 32% say they would not. Native-born voters are evenly divided on that question.
The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted online Jan. 4-8 among a random sample of 8,199 registered California voters, including a weighted sub-sample of 4,470 voters likely to take part in the March 5 primary.
The results were weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so estimates of the margin of error may be imprecise. The results have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 percentage points in either direction for the full sample.
Politics
Fugitive illegal alien convict on the run after attempting to strike ICE officer with vehicle: DHS
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An illegal alien with a long criminal history remains on the run after he attempted to hit a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer with his vehicle in California as authorities were trying to arrest him, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said Monday.
ICE was attempting to take Xa Lee, a fugitive and Laotian citizen, into custody on March 25 in Sacramento. Lee was driving when he was pulled over, according to DHS.
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Xa Lee, a Laotian citizen with a long criminal history, attempted to strike an ICE agents with a vehicle while fleeing from authorities in Sacramento, Calif., the Department of Homeland Security said. (Getty Images; Department of Homeland Security)
During the vehicle stop, Lee attempted to flee and tried to strike an ICE officer with his car.
“The officer, thankfully, did not sustain injuries. During the incident, ICE officers deployed their tasers. He fled the scene and remains at large,” DHS Acting Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis said. “This is just the latest in a disturbing trend of vehicle attacks.”
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A federal immigration judge issued a deportation order for Lee in 2010. His criminal record includes convictions for vehicle theft, stolen property, conspiracy, petty theft, two DUIs, resisting an officer, battery, and felony possession of a firearm.
DHS noted that Lee’s evasion of arrest came amid a history of webinars by Democratic elected officials who advised undocumented immigrants on how to evade ICE and report encounters with federal immigration authorities.
The agency cited California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, and U.S. Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Dan Goldman, both Democrats.
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All four politicians have repeatedly called for the Trump administration to halt its deportation campaign targeting criminal illegal immigrants.
“DHS is once again calling on sanctuary politicians, agitators, and the media to turn the temperature down and stop calling for violence and resistance against ICE law enforcement,” the agency said.
DHS requests that if the public has any information about Lee’s whereabouts, contact the ICE tip line at 866-347-2423 or online.
Politics
Commentary: Will or won’t he? A lot rides on a Trump endorsement in California governor’s race
Chad Bianco couldn’t fly to Mar-a-Lago, wreathe President Trump in honeyed words, bestow the Riverside County Peace Prize upon him and hand-feed him his favorite dish — a Big Mac? — from a platter of 24-karat gold.
Security, logistics and all of that.
So the Republican candidate for California governor did the next best thing: He confiscated hundreds of thousands of ballots from last November’s special election in a trumped-up investigation of supposed voting irregularities. Never mind the complete lack of evidence or the fact Proposition 50, the subject of Bianco’s investigation, was approved by a clear-cut majority of voters.
The intent of Riverside County’s grasping sheriff was as transparent as a pane of glass. It’s all about trying to win the endorsement of Trump — he of phantasmagorical election-fraud claims — in California’s neck-and-neck-and-neck gubernatorial contest.
Bianco, fellow Republican Steve Hilton and a passel of Democratic hopefuls are bunched together in a contest that remains utterly wide open just weeks before voters start receiving their ballots in the mail.
“Trump’s endorsement would be huge,” said Jon Fleischman, a conservative strategist and former executive director of the state GOP.
“Actually,” he went on, ‘I think it would be determinative” — virtually guaranteeing either Hilton or Bianco finished in the top two in the June 2 primary, ushering them past the rope line into November’s runoff.
If there’s an inside edge in the Trump Endorsement Sweepstakes, it would seemingly go to Hilton.
He’s familiar to the president as a former Fox News host. He’s interviewed Trump several times and the two occasionally text and talk on the phone. Bianco has no such personal connection, which might explain his ballot-seizing stunt.
Steve Hilton could have the inside track on a Trump endorsement, given their personal relationship.
(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
(The Democrats’ nightmare scenario is both Republicans making the runoff, icing the party out of the governor’s office for the first time since Arnold Schwarzenegger left in January 2011. More on that in a moment.)
A Trump endorsement comes in all sorts of flavors.
As The Downballot recently noted, “His bag of tricks includes dual endorsements, triple endorsements, pre-endorsements, Election Day endorsements, yanking endorsements … belated endorsement of a candidate after initially endorsing just one candidate [and] non-endorsements after promising to endorse.”
There was also the time Trump endorsed “ERIC” when Republicans Eric Schmitt and Eric Greitens faced each other in Missouri’s Senate primary. (Schmitt won and is now the state’s junior U.S. senator.)
Trump’s backing still counts a good deal, even as his approval ratings sink to sub-basement levels. The president remains popular with Republicans and, critically, the kind of GOP loyalists who vote in primary contests, which is why both Hilton and Bianco would welcome a presidential laying on of hands.
There’s good reason, however, to think Trump might pass on endorsing in the governor’s race, or opt to deliver one of his dual he-and-him endorsements.
The GOP’s best — and perhaps only — hope of winning the governorship is the Democratic-freeze-out scenario. So, tactically, Trump’s wisest move may be to bless neither Hilton nor Bianco. Or support both. That would avoid elevating one over the other, which could make it easier for a Democrat to finish among the top two and advance past the June primary.
“I think Trump’s people are smart enough to know that there’s a reason why he may not be served by endorsing a candidate,” Fleischman said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the prevailing wisdom there is we better not endorse anybody, because we don’t want to tilt this one way or the other.”
If Trump were to back Hilton or Bianco, it’s not hard to imagine Democratic interests seizing upon the president’s benediction and putting significant money behind an ad blitz promoting the president’s favorite in hopes of boosting him — and him alone — into the top two.
The move comes from a well-thumbed political playbook, seeking to elevate a preferred opponent, that was used most recently in California by Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff. He helped lift Republican Steve Garvey into the November 2024 runoff to keep from having to face a tougher opponent, fellow Democrat Katie Porter. Schiff easily defeated Garvey.
In this case, Democrats would aim to tee up one of the two Republicans who would almost certainly go on to lose in the fall.
Which is what happened the first time Gavin Newsom ran for governor.
In 2018, his main rival was fellow Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa. Two major Republicans were also in the race, John Cox and Travis Allen. There was no real concern about those two nabbing both spots in the June primary. Rather, Newsom and Cox had a shared interest in boxing out Villaraigosa.
Newsom ran a TV spot attacking Cox and tying him to Trump, which raised Cox’s profile and boosted him among GOP voters. The Newsom and Cox campaigns opened a private back-channel, trading gossip, swapping insights on the race and even sharing some empirical data. One poll, showing Cox getting a bigger boost from a Trump endorsement than Allen, passed from Democratic hands in hopes it would reach the White House and nudge the president into supporting Cox.
Though there’s no proof the survey ever reached Trump, the president eventually threw his support behind the San Diego County businessman, lifting him past Allen in the primary. Cox went on to lose handily to Newsom in November.
This time, with more than a half dozen plausible candidates and no obvious path to victory for any one, it’s every man and woman for themselves.
The same goes for Trump, who may do himself the most good in California, politically, by doing nothing at all.
If he can only resist.
Politics
Emanuel pushes back on ‘straight White man’ question, says ideas matter most in 2028
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MANCHESTER, N.H. — Rahm Emanuel is shrugging off the Democratic Party’s identity debate and emphasizing that the showdown for the Democrats’ 2028 presidential nomination should be about ideas and not gender.
The former Chicago mayor and White House chief of staff to President Barack Obama is mulling a White House run of his own in 2028 in the race to succeed term-limited Republican President Donald Trump. But in a party that has made diversity one of its core tenets, Emanuel will have to face the question: will the Democratic Party elect a straight White male to represent it?
Emanuel told Fox News Digital on Monday that Democrats should be asking potential presidential contenders different questions entirely, such as: “Do you have the ideas of how to make sure the American Dream is alive and well, accessible and affordable to another generation?”
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Former First Lady Michelle Obama lamented in a podcast late last year that the U.S. is not ready for a female president. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty)
In the wake of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ defeat to Trump in the 2024 election, former First Lady Michelle Obama made headlines late last year when she emphasized in a conversation posted on YouTube that the U.S. has “a lot of growing up to do” and that the nation is “not ready for a woman” as president.
And former President Joe Biden, in an interview last year on “The View,” argued that Harris lost to Trump because of sexism and racism.
Harris was the second female Democratic presidential nominee to come up short to Trump, following Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the 2016 election.
That’s got some in the Democratic Party suggesting that in order to recapture the White House in 2028, it might be better for the party to nominate a White male as their standard-bearer.
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While Democrats take pride in their party’s diversity, an Axios article this past weekend, headlined “Some Dems’ 2028 strategy: a straight, White, Christian man,” included quotes from party operatives and strategists suggesting that parts of the American electorate are too biased to back a female or other diverse presidential candidate.
Emanuel disagrees.
“More important is the voters’ take. They’ll make a decision. And so to me, that’s the wrong thing. The question is, do you have the ideas that address the challenges that are facing America, regardless of who’s speaking it,” he said.
Former U.S. ambassador Rahm Emanuel, a former Chicago mayor who previous served as White House chief of staff in then-President Barack Obama’s administration and a former U.S. House member, speaks at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, on March 30, 2026, in Manchester, N.H. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News )
Emanuel spoke with Fox News and other news organizations after headlining “Politics and Eggs,” a speaking series at Saint Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics that’s a must stop for White House hopefuls visiting the which for a century has held the first presidential primary in the White House race. And hours earlier, on Sunday evening, he was the main attraction at the latest “Stand Up New Hampshire” town hall hosted by top Democratic activists.
Emanuel has been crisscrossing the country in recent months, as he considers a presidential bid, including stops in two other crucial early primary states, Nevada and South Carolina, where he heads later this week.
He said he’ll become a presidential candidate “if I think I have what it takes to answer what I think is ailing the greatest country.”
Emanuel, who hails from the more moderate center-left wing of the party, emphasized that in order to win in 2028, Democrats need to “centralize and ground ourselves in middle class values, tough enforcement at the border, put more police on the beat, and get kids, guns and gangs off the street, and invest in education opportunities.”
“Get to the core of what they expect from us and don’t get caught up in some cultural cul-de-sac that leads nowhere,” he added.
Potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender Rahm Emanuel greets audience members at ‘Politics and Eggs,’ a speaking series at Saint Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics, on March 30, 2026, in Manchester. N.H. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
As Democrats look for a fighter in 2028 to win back the White House, Emanuel is showing off his scrappy side.
“These are tough times that require a tough leader that knows how to do tough things and get them done on behalf of the American people. That’s the measure,” he told Fox News Digital.
And Emanuel also repeatedly took aim at Trump and his administration for their handling of the president’s efforts to acquire Greenland and the month-long strikes against Iran.
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“It’s a war of choice, and it’s a bad choice,” Emanuel said of Trump. “He could have gotten everything he wanted without going to war.”
And taking another shot, he said, “If they ever run a sequel to ‘Dumb and Dumber,’ I have recommendations for the lead roles, and there’s lots of competition in this administration.”
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