If any question remains about whether former president Donald Trump will skate to the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it could well be answered Jan. 23 in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire
Analysis | How close is Nikki Haley in New Hampshire?
Two new polls released Tuesday morning tell pretty different tales about how likely New Hampshire is to assist her.
A CNN-University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed Haley creeping to within single digits of Trump, 39 percent to 32 percent. A Boston Globe-USA Today-Suffolk University poll, meanwhile, showed she trails by 20 points, 46-26.
So which might be closer to the mark? And what do they suggest about what lies ahead?
The first thing to note is that both polls show Haley gaining. The CNN poll has Haley shrinking her deficit from 22 percentage points in November to seven points today. The Suffolk poll has her shrinking it from 30 points in late September to 20 points today.
The CNN poll has long indicated that Trump’s support in New Hampshire is softer than what other polls have shown, so its tightening looks more pronounced.
Beyond that, there are a couple of key differences in the CNN and Suffolk polls.
One difference is in voters who aren’t registered Republicans — a vital demographic that Haley needs to own, given Trump’s huge advantage among registered Republicans. While the CNN poll shows Haley leading among them by 26 points (43-17), the Suffolk poll shows her lead at just half that (36-23).
The biggest difference, though, is education. While the CNN poll has Haley trailing by just 15 points (46-31) among voters with a high school education or less, the Suffolk poll shows Trump with a massive 70-point lead (80-10) among those voters.
This is significant because Trump often excels with less formally educated voters. It’s difficult to compare New Hampshire to other states or the national polls given its unusual electorate. But if Haley is keeping it as close with these voters as the CNN poll suggests, that would be remarkable. (And they are a large chunk of the poll, accounting for 37 percent of the sample.)
To the extent that the CNN poll does reflect reality, it could be particularly heartening for Haley.
In addition to showing her trimming her deficit to single digits, it also shows both her and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (12 percent) combining for more votes than Trump. It’s the first high-quality poll to make such a finding.
Christie has thus far rejected suggestions that he might make way for Haley in the name of trying to defeat Trump. But such comments are to be expected; you don’t signal you might drop out while you’re still hoping to compete. And Christie has criticized Trump more harshly than any other candidate, signaling early on that his campaign was about stopping Trump.
The CNN poll suggests that if Christie were to bow out, it would almost certainly bolster Haley further and possibly even allow her to compete for the win in the Granite State.
Christie draws his support almost exclusively from those who aren’t registered Republicans (taking 23 percent of them), moderates (26 percent) and left-leaning voters (40 percent), compared with almost no support among registered Republicans or conservatives. Previous UNH Survey Center polling suggested Christie’s base overwhelmingly voted for President Biden in the 2020 general election. Haley is the clear home for those voters if Christie is no longer an option, and they still vote in the GOP primary.
Trump could also benefit if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) or Vivek Ramaswamy don’t make it to New Hampshire, given how much their bases overlap with his. DeSantis has become something of a nonfactor in New Hampshire, taking just 8 percent in the Suffolk poll and 5 percent in the CNN poll (which shows him in fifth place behind Ramaswamy). And it’s plausible that their voters wouldn’t go as strongly for Trump as Christie’s would go for Haley, given that these are voters who have so far declined to back the presumptive nominee.
What’s clear from the new polls is that while Iowa’s caucuses are next week, New Hampshire the following week is the ballgame, at least in the first two states. How competitive that ballgame will be — and whether Haley could actually reshape the race if she gets the outcome she needs — is to be determined.
A Massachusetts man was flown to the hospital after he was struck by a car when he stepped out of his vehicle in the breakdown lane of Interstate 93 in Londonderry, New Hampshire, on Saturday morning.
State police say 40-year-old Felix Matos Medina, of Lawrence, had stopped on the right side of I-93 south at Exit 5 just before 11 a.m. to investigate a possible mechanical issue. He was struck shortly after he stepped out of his vehicle by a Chevrolet Malibu and sustained serious injuries.
Medina was taken by medical helicopter to Lahey Hospital and Medical Center in Burlington, Mass., police said. There was no immediate update on his condition.
I-93 southbound was closed near Exit 5 for about 30 minutes to facilitate the medical helicopter’s landing. One lane remained closed for several hours to accommodate crash reconstruction and on-scene investigation.
The driver who struck Medina, identified as David Jodoin, stopped at the scene and is cooperating with investigators, according to police. No charges have been filed at this time, but all aspects of the crash remain under investigation at this time.
Anyone with information that may assist the investigation is asked to contact Trooper Evan Puopolo at 603-451-9784.
State police are also reminding all New Hampshire drivers that Sherrill’s Law requires motorists approaching a stopped vehicle displaying warning signals to slow down and give plenty of space. Drivers are also required to move out of partially or wholly blocked lanes when it’s safe to do so.
New Hampshire
Downtown Shooting | How Much Income Makes Someone ‘Rich’ | Sex Sale Gone Bad On Facebook? Nearby News NH
CONCORD, NH — Here are the Top 10 most popular stories and posts from around New Hampshire Patch sites last week.
- Concord Police Investigating The Death Of A Young Child In The City’s South End Neighborhood: Update: Dakin Street was closed to traffic for several hours during an investigation of a child found dead at a duplex on Friday morning.
- Facebook Marketplace Cleaning Services Hire Or Sex Sale Gone Bad Leads To Stabbing In Manchester: Court docs: Frank Miller of Manchester and Kendra Gokey, a homeless woman, were arrested on first-degree assault and other charges Sunday.
- Man Shot During Dispute On South State Street In Downtown Concord: Video: Breaking: A man was shot in the leg Saturday during a dispute; cops have South State Street from Thompson to Concord closed to traffic.
- Fast Food Chain Closing Locations | Queen City Killing | Meth Distributor Pleads Guilty | More: Nearby News: Also: Best sandwich shop in NH; untimely death; crashes; knife attack indictments; firefighter injured in explosion released from hospital.
- After The Snow Sunday And Monday, More Is Coming To New Hampshire, Forecasters Say: After the storm that is expected to bring 8 to 12 inches of snow to the state, more snowstorm fronts are expected to arrive this week.
- 6 To 15 Inches Of Snow Heading To The Granite State Sunday Night; Wind Gusts Up To 45 mph: Forecasters: Heavy, blinding snow is expected in central and southern New Hampshire, as well as the Seacoast, from Sunday night to Monday morning.
- National Fast Food Chain To Close Hundreds Of Restaurants; New Hampshire Locations May Be Impacted: The chain that closed hundreds of locations in 2024 expects to shutter approximately 360 nationwide during the first half of 2026.
- Police Arrest Man On Felony Charges After South State Street Shooting In Downtown Concord: Follow-Up: David Anziani faces first-degree and second-degree assault, reckless conduct, and felonious firearm charges after a shooting on Saturday.
- Hollis Teen Faces Assault Charge, Accused Of An ‘Unprovoked’ Attack In Downtown Nashua In November: Connor Cook was arrested in late December after being accused of punching another man in the face on Main Street and then fleeing the scene.
- How Much Income Is Needed To Be Considered ‘Rich’ In New Hampshire?: A new analysis details the annual household income required to be considered among the top 10 percent of earners in the Granite State.
Here are some other posts readers may have missed:
Child Death Investigation | Queen City Tax Cap Fight | Fun Things To Do This Weekend | More: PM Patch NH
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