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Analysis | How close is Nikki Haley in New Hampshire?

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Analysis | How close is Nikki Haley in New Hampshire?


If any question remains about whether former president Donald Trump will skate to the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it could well be answered Jan. 23 in New Hampshire.

That’s when the one early state that looks somewhat close will hold its primary. As I wrote in my new newsletter The Campaign Moment on Monday (sign up here), it all comes down to whether Nikki Haley can keep it close or, better yet for her, win. At that point she would hope to recast the rest of the nominating contest.

Two new polls released Tuesday morning tell pretty different tales about how likely New Hampshire is to assist her.

A CNN-University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll showed Haley creeping to within single digits of Trump, 39 percent to 32 percent. A Boston Globe-USA Today-Suffolk University poll, meanwhile, showed she trails by 20 points, 46-26.

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So which might be closer to the mark? And what do they suggest about what lies ahead?

The first thing to note is that both polls show Haley gaining. The CNN poll has Haley shrinking her deficit from 22 percentage points in November to seven points today. The Suffolk poll has her shrinking it from 30 points in late September to 20 points today.

The CNN poll has long indicated that Trump’s support in New Hampshire is softer than what other polls have shown, so its tightening looks more pronounced.

Beyond that, there are a couple of key differences in the CNN and Suffolk polls.

One difference is in voters who aren’t registered Republicans — a vital demographic that Haley needs to own, given Trump’s huge advantage among registered Republicans. While the CNN poll shows Haley leading among them by 26 points (43-17), the Suffolk poll shows her lead at just half that (36-23).

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The biggest difference, though, is education. While the CNN poll has Haley trailing by just 15 points (46-31) among voters with a high school education or less, the Suffolk poll shows Trump with a massive 70-point lead (80-10) among those voters.

This is significant because Trump often excels with less formally educated voters. It’s difficult to compare New Hampshire to other states or the national polls given its unusual electorate. But if Haley is keeping it as close with these voters as the CNN poll suggests, that would be remarkable. (And they are a large chunk of the poll, accounting for 37 percent of the sample.)

To the extent that the CNN poll does reflect reality, it could be particularly heartening for Haley.

In addition to showing her trimming her deficit to single digits, it also shows both her and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (12 percent) combining for more votes than Trump. It’s the first high-quality poll to make such a finding.

Christie has thus far rejected suggestions that he might make way for Haley in the name of trying to defeat Trump. But such comments are to be expected; you don’t signal you might drop out while you’re still hoping to compete. And Christie has criticized Trump more harshly than any other candidate, signaling early on that his campaign was about stopping Trump.

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The CNN poll suggests that if Christie were to bow out, it would almost certainly bolster Haley further and possibly even allow her to compete for the win in the Granite State.

Christie draws his support almost exclusively from those who aren’t registered Republicans (taking 23 percent of them), moderates (26 percent) and left-leaning voters (40 percent), compared with almost no support among registered Republicans or conservatives. Previous UNH Survey Center polling suggested Christie’s base overwhelmingly voted for President Biden in the 2020 general election. Haley is the clear home for those voters if Christie is no longer an option, and they still vote in the GOP primary.

Trump could also benefit if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) or Vivek Ramaswamy don’t make it to New Hampshire, given how much their bases overlap with his. DeSantis has become something of a nonfactor in New Hampshire, taking just 8 percent in the Suffolk poll and 5 percent in the CNN poll (which shows him in fifth place behind Ramaswamy). And it’s plausible that their voters wouldn’t go as strongly for Trump as Christie’s would go for Haley, given that these are voters who have so far declined to back the presumptive nominee.

What’s clear from the new polls is that while Iowa’s caucuses are next week, New Hampshire the following week is the ballgame, at least in the first two states. How competitive that ballgame will be — and whether Haley could actually reshape the race if she gets the outcome she needs — is to be determined.



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New Hampshire

Nashua, NH, woman jailed for falsifying marriage to claim late man’s estate

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Nashua, NH, woman jailed for falsifying marriage to claim late man’s estate


KEENE, N.H. — A Nashua woman who had a town clerk falsely certify a marriage that never happened so she could claim her late partner’s property has been sentenced to seven days in jail, placed on probation and ordered to repay thousands to his estate.

Attorney General John Formella said Wendy Leedberg‑Snow, 60, turned to Winchester Town Clerk Jim Tetreault after the death of her longtime partner, Eric Leedberg — who was born in Lowell — using the falsified license to pose as his spouse and lay claim to property from his estate, an effort prosecutors describe as an attempt to rewrite the couple’s history for financial gain.

“This case involved a deliberate effort to manipulate official government records and exploit the death of a loved one for personal financial gain,” Formella said in a press release announcing the sentencing. “Our vital records system depends on honesty and integrity, and those who seek to corrupt that system will be held accountable. I want to thank the investigators and prosecutors whose work ensured justice for the victim’s family.”

According to Leedberg’s obituary, he was 53 when he died on Oct. 12, 2023, following a two‑year battle with cancer.

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In the obituary, Leedberg-Snow is described as his “significant other.”

Prosecutors said Leedberg‑Snow moved quickly after his death, relying on Tetreault’s signature to fabricate a marriage that never occurred and position herself as Leedberg’s surviving spouse.

Tetreault, who was a New Hampshire justice of the peace at the time, falsely signed the marriage license claiming he had officiated the couple’s wedding. He later admitted he never performed any ceremony for Leedberg‑Snow and Leedberg and had no personal knowledge of them ever being married.

Leedberg‑Snow used the fraudulent certificate to obtain property from Leedberg’s estate, including a pickup truck and trailer, and later attempted to influence a witness connected to the scheme.

Leedberg‑Snow pleaded guilty in Cheshire County Superior Court in Keene to felony counts of solicitation to commit vital records fraud, title fraud, theft by misapplication of property and witness tampering.

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In addition to her seven‑day jail term, she must serve two years of probation, pay $4,600 in restitution, return the truck and trailer to Leedberg’s estate and comply with a suspended three‑and‑a‑half‑ to seven‑year prison sentence, which means the sentence only takes effect if she violates the conditions of her probation.

Tetreault, who continues to serve as Winchester’s town clerk and “fully cooperated with the State’s investigation,” according to prosecutors, pleaded guilty in April to notarial misconduct, a Class A misdemeanor. As part of a negotiated plea, prosecutors dropped a felony charge of vital records fraud. He was sentenced to 90 days in the house of corrections, all suspended for two years on good behavior, and ordered to pay a $1,000 fine plus a $240 penalty assessment.

He resigned his commissions as a justice of the peace and bail commissioner and agreed not to seek recommissioning as a justice of the peace or notary public during the two‑year suspension period.

Tetreault could not be reached for comment at his office number.

Follow Aaron Curtis on X @aselahcurtis, or on Bluesky @aaronscurtis.bsky.social.

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Rescue Crews Help Injured Woman Off Mt. Washington

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Rescue Crews Help Injured Woman Off Mt. Washington


SARGENT’S PURCHASE – On Saturday, personnel from multiple rescue crews teamed up to help an injured woman get off of Mt. Washington to seek medical treatment.

At approximately 7:45 AM, New Hampshire Fish and Game Department Conservation Officers were notified that a staff member at the Appalachian Mountain Club (AMC) Lakes of the Clouds Hut had taken a serious fall at the hut and was left unable to walk.

Fish and Game subsequently mobilized search and rescue personnel to come and help evacuate the young woman from her remote location.

By 10:00 AM, members of the Androscoggin Valley Search and Rescue Team (AVSAR), Pemigewassett Valley Search and Rescue Team (Pemi), AMC and Fish and Game had gathered at the Base Station of the Cog Rail. The Cog Railway generously donated room on their trains, and rescuers and equipment were given rides up Mt. Washington to the West Side Trail, which allowed for a shorter and less strenuous 1.6 mile hike than other routes.

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By 11:20 AM rescuers were at the hut with the patient. The patient was subsequently packaged in a litter and prepared for an overland carryout back to the Cog tracks.

Rescue personnel made steady progress, and by 2:15 PM had made it back across West Side Trail and to the train tracks. A Cog Railway train picked up the whole rescue party and brought everyone back down the mountain. Once roadside, the patient was evaluated by personnel from Twin Mountain Fire and Rescue.

She was ultimately driven from the scene by a friend and went to Memorial Hospital in North Conway for further evaluation
and treatment of multiple injuries related to her fall. The patient was identified as Cali Turner, 26, of Willimantic, Maine.

Fish and Game would like to thank all of the people and organizations involved in this rescue effort. Through the help of everyone, the rescue was a great success and got done in a timely manner.

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Gilmanton Iron Works Man Accused Of Possessing Guns, Hundreds Of Grams Of Fentanyl In Hooksett, Manchester

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Gilmanton Iron Works Man Accused Of Possessing Guns, Hundreds Of Grams Of Fentanyl In Hooksett, Manchester


Editor’s note: This post was derived from information provided by the Hooksett and Manchester police departments and does not constitute a conviction. This link explains how to request the removal of a name from New Hampshire Patch police reports.

Stark was arrested later by police during a motor vehicle stop in Manchester and charged with drug sale, possession, driving after revocation or suspension, and armed career criminal. He was then turned over to Hooksett police on that department’s charges, processed, declined bail, and was held at the Merrimack County Jail for future arraignment.

Decades Of Priors

Stark, according to superior court records, has more than two decades of criminal history, mostly in the Lakes Region.

In Laconia in December 2005, when he was a teen, Stark was accused of second-degree assault and felony theft. He pleaded guilty to both charges in August 2006. Stark was given work release in January 2007 and about 11 months later, was accused of violating probation. After being sentenced, he was accused of violating probation again in August 2008. A bail forfeiture hearing was held in December 2008, and a probation violation hearing was held in March 2009.

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Stark was accused of controlled drug act in Laconia in December 2009, but the charge was nolle prossed in August 2010. In June 2010, he was accused of controlled drug act in Laconia, but the charge was nolle prossed in November 2010. Stark was charged with bail jumping in May 2010 and pleaded guilty a year later to the charge and received a two-to-four-year prison sentence with 113 days time served credit.





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