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Will Pakistan ever be able to eradicate polio?

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Will Pakistan ever be able to eradicate polio?

Health workers have begun a campaign to vaccinate 9.5 million children against polio in 41 districts in Pakistan this week. This latest round of a national vaccination drive will include Islamabad and focus particularly on areas where polio-positive sewage samples have been found.

The anti-polio drive will be launched in 16 districts of Balochistan, 11 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, eight districts of Sindh, and five districts of Punjab, according to local media.

Despite major efforts to eradicate the disease in Pakistan, six cases of the highly infectious virus have already been reported this year. Further hampering the drive, vaccination teams and medical professionals have faced harassment and even physical attacks in some parts of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif, however, said the government “remains steadfast” in its aim to eradicate polio after a meeting with American billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates in Islamabad last week.

How serious a problem is polio in Pakistan?

Pakistan is one of only two countries in the world where polio is still endemic, the other being neighbouring Afghanistan, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

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The highly contagious viral disease largely affects children under the age of five. Children infected by poliovirus can suffer paralysis and in some cases death.

The South Asian nation launched a vaccination programme as part of its Polio Eradication Programme in 1994. Officials say the country used to report more than 20,000 cases annually.

Despite administering more than 300 million doses of the oral vaccine annually and spending billions of dollars, the disease is still rife across Pakistan.

This year, four vaccination campaigns targeting more than 43 million children have already been undertaken as authorities claim they are in the “last mile” of their fight against polio in the country of 235 million people.

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How many cases have been reported in Pakistan?

Since 2015, Pakistan has reported 357 polio cases, including six this year. One of the victims, a two-year-old boy, died in May.

Officials said all of this year’s cases belong to the YB3A cluster, which they said originated in Afghanistan, where four cases have been reported this year.

In addition to human cases, wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) has frequently been detected in environmental samples taken across the country. This year, WPV1 has been found in 45 of Pakistan’s 166 districts.

How does Pakistan run its polio immunisation campaigns?

Nationwide immunisation campaigns involving more than 350,000 health workers are run in phases with vaccine desks set up at health centres and health workers going door to door. The campaigns are organised by the government-run National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC), which has been tasked with running Pakistan’s Polio Eradication Programme.

Field workers go door to door over the course of a specified number of days, vaccinating children under the age of five.

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Vaccines are also administered at land and air borders, including to adults, and on motorways connecting major cities across the country.

What are the issues facing the polio campaign?

Resistance to the polio immunisation drive grew in Pakistan after the CIA, a United States spy agency, organised a fake hepatitis vaccination drive to track al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was killed in 2011 in Pakistan by US special forces.

Misinformation linked to religious beliefs has also been spread, claiming that the vaccine contains traces of pork and alcohol, which are forbidden in Islam.

Disinformation, agenda-driven campaigns, myths, community boycotts and mistrust in the government have also been factors behind refusals. But officials said government campaigns are helping change bad perceptions.

Health authorities in Pakistan have listed seven districts where polio is “endemic”. All seven are in the northwest, in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. Officials said the security situation has been the biggest obstacle in reaching the target population in the province bordering Afghanistan.

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In addition to the security situation, health officials say a target population that moves from one place to another, which may be carrying the YB3A variant, has proven to be a challenge.

INTERACTIVE_POLIO_MAR14_What is polio

Why have health workers and security officials been targeted?

Health workers and security officials accompanying them have been harassed, ridiculed, taunted, threatened and even targeted physically.

At least 102 polio field workers, officials and security personnel have been killed, including at least six in campaigns carried out this year.

In recent years, the Pakistan Taliban has killed dozens of health workers and members of the security forces involved in polio campaigns. But officials believe the reason for the violence is not the polio programme alone.

“Over the last few years, it is not the polio programme that is targeted, but unfortunately, the targets are the security personnel guarding the teams because, given the security situation in some parts of the country, they become soft targets when they are in the community,” Dr Hamid Jafari, the WHO’s director of polio eradication, told Al Jazeera.

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What other issues affect the health workers?

Low pay, salary delays, lack of assistance and compassion, and tough working conditions are some of the other issues facing the field workers.

Some health workers told Al Jazeera they get paid as little as 1,360 rupees per day (about $5) for at least eight hours of work. Catch-up days when they go out in the field after the end of the campaign to vaccinate children who were missed are not paid, they said.

In addition, some polio survivors now working on the campaign do not receive help with transport or health benefits despite their conditions, leaving them to walk in poor weather and tough terrain to carry out their work.

Some staff lamented the lack of pay parity, saying people working with international organisations involved in the campaign are paid much more.

INTERACTIVE_POLIO_JUNE 14, 2024_Pakistan expenditure-1718880042

What is the outlook for the polio eradication campaign?

Dr Shahzad Baig, who was the NEOC chief until May, told Al Jazeera that the aim was to make Pakistan polio-free by 2026.

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“That is our target at the moment,” he said before he was replaced.

However, after a Technical Advisory Group meeting organised by the WHO that took place in Qatar in May, there are increasing concerns over the “deteriorating situation of the disease” in the country, according to a report by Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper.

A Pakistani official quoted in the report said that at the meeting, “We faced an embarrassing situation as all the gains made by Pakistan in 2021 have been lost and the virus has re-emerged in three blocks.”

Health officials, however, remain hopeful, given that the number of positive cases has decreased significantly over the past five years – from 147 in 2019 to six so far this year.

“The programmes in Pakistan and Afghanistan are very mature and have learned a lot,” Jafari said.

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“Despite changes in government and security situations, these programmes have evolved, adapted and adjusted. And that’s why they have a level of population immunity that you’re not seeing outbreaks of paralytic polio cases.

“It’s not a widespread problem across Pakistan. It’s not even a widespread geographic problem. It is now a matter of getting to these final, hard-to-reach populations. When you start reaching these populations, progress happens very fast.”

INTERACTIVE_POLIO_JUNE 14, 2024_polio spread-1718368030

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Israel keeping its ‘eyes open’ for Iranian attacks during Trump transition period, ambassador says

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Israel keeping its ‘eyes open’ for Iranian attacks during Trump transition period, ambassador says

Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is keeping its “eyes open” for any potential aggression from Iran during the Trump transition period, adding it would be a “mistake” for the Islamic Republic to carry out an attack. 

The comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed earlier this week that Iran would retaliate against Israel for the strategic airstrikes it carried out against Tehran on Oct. 26. Araghchi was quoted in Iranian media saying “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.” 

“I would advise him not to challenge us. We have already shown our capabilities. We have proved that they are vulnerable. We can actually target any location in Iran. They know that,” Danon told Fox News Digital. 

“So I would advise them not to make that mistake. If they think that now, because of the transition period, they can take advantage of it, they are wrong,” he added. “We are keeping our eyes open and we are ready for all scenarios.” 

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Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is “ready for all scenarios” coming from Iran during the Trump transition period. (Fox News)

Danon says he believes one of the most important challenges for the incoming Trump administration will be the way the U.S. deals with Iran. 

“Regarding the new administration, I think the most important challenge will be the way you challenge Iran, the aggression, the threat of the Iranian regime. I believe that the U.S. will have to go back to a leading position on this issue,” he told Fox News Digital. 

“We are fighting the same enemies, the enemies of the United States of America. When you look at the Iranians, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, all those bad actors that are coming against Israel… that is the enemy of the United States. So I think every American should support us and understand what we are doing now,” Danon also said. 

IRAN HIDING MISSILE, DRONE PROGRAMS UNDER GUISE OF COMMERCIAL FRONT TO EVADE SANCTIONS 

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House Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Elise Stefanik

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is acknowledged by President-elect Donald Trump alongside Speaker of the House Mike Johnson during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024. Stefanik has been chosen by President-elect Donald Trump as the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. (Allison Robbert/Pool via REUTERS)

Danon spoke as the U.S. vetoed a draft resolution against Israel at the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday. 

The resolution, which was overseen by Algeria, sought an “immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire” to be imposed on Israel. The resolution did not guarantee the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas within Gaza. 

Israeli military planes

Israeli Air Force planes departing for the strikes in Iran on Oct. 26. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

 

“It was a shameful resolution because… it didn’t have the linkage between the cease-fire and the call [for] the release of the hostages. And I want to thank the United States for taking a strong position and vetoing this resolution,” Danon said. “I think it sent a very clear message that the U.S. stands with its strongest ally with Israel. And, you know, it was shameful, too, to hear the voices of so many ambassadors speaking about a cease-fire but abandoning the 101 hostages. We will not forget them. We will never abandon them. We will continue to fight until we bring all of them back home.” 

Fox News’ Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report. 

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Fact-check: What do we know about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

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Fact-check: What do we know about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

Moscow has lowered the bar for using nuclear weapons and fired a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead into Ukraine, heightening tensions with the West.

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Russia’s nuclear arsenal is under fresh scrutiny after an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying an atomic warhead was fired into Ukrainian territory.

President Vladimir Putin says the unprecedented attack using the so-called “Oreshnik” missile is a direct response to Ukraine’s use of US and UK-made missiles to strike targets deep in Russian territory.

He has also warned that the military facilities of Western countries allowing Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russia could become targets.

The escalation comes days after the Russian President approved small but significant changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine, which would allow a nuclear response to a conventional, non-nuclear attack on Russian territory.

While Western officials, including US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, have dismissed the notion that Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons is imminent, experts warn that recent developments could increase the possibility of nuclear weapons use.

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Here’s what we know about Russia’s inventory of atomic weapons.

How big is Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

Russia holds more nuclear warheads than any other nation at an estimated 5,580, which amounts to 47% of global stockpiles, according to data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

But only an estimated 1,710 of those weapons are deployed, a fraction more than the 1,670 deployed by the US. 

Both nations have the necessary nuclear might to destroy each other several times over, and considerably more atomic warheads than the world’s seven other nuclear nations: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom.

Of Moscow’s deployed weapons, an estimated 870 are on land-based ballistic missiles, 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and potentially 200 at heavy bomber bases.

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According to FAS, there are no signs Russia is significantly scaling up its nuclear arsenal, but the federation does warn of a potential surge in the future as the country replaces single-warhead missiles with those capable of carrying multiple warheads.

Russia is also steadily modernising its nuclear arsenal.

What could trigger a Russian nuclear response?

Moscow’s previous 2020 doctrine stated that its nuclear weapons could be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction “when the very existence of the state is put under threat.”

Now, the conditions under which a nuclear response could be launched have changed in three crucial ways:

  1. Russia will consider using nuclear weapons in the case of a strike on its territory using conventional weapons, such as cruise missiles, drones and tactical aircraft.
  2. It could launch a nuclear attack in response to an aggression by a non-nuclear state acting “with the participation or support of a nuclear state”, as is the case for Ukraine.
  3. Moscow will also apply the same conditions to an attack on Belarus’ territory, in agreement with President Lukashenko.

Is there a rising nuclear threat?

The size of the world’s nuclear stockpiles has rapidly decreased amid the post-Cold War détente. The Soviet Union had some 40,000 warheads, and the US around 30,000, when stockpiles peaked during the 1960s and 70s.

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But FAS warns that while the overall number is still in decline, operational warheads are on the rise once again. More countries are also upgrading their missiles to deploy multiple warheads.

“In nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces,” Hans M. Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said in June this year.

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Is the West reacting?

When Putin approved the updated nuclear protocol last week, many Western leaders dismissed it as sabre rattling.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Germany and its partners would “not be intimidated” and accused Putin of “playing with our fear.”

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But since Russia used a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in an attack on Dnipro, European leaders have raised the alarm.

“The last few dozen hours have shown that the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday.

According to Dutch media reports, NATO’s secretary-general Mark Rutte is in Florida to urgently meet President-elect Donald Trump, potentially to discuss the recent escalation.

NATO and Ukraine will hold an extraordinary meeting in Brussels next Tuesday to discuss the situation and the possible allied reaction, according to Euronews sources.

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Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025

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Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Rental homes will remain an attractive option next year to would-be homebuyers sidelined by high mortgage rates and rising home prices, analysts say.

American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes are two big real estate investment trusts poised to benefit from the trend, say analysts at Mizuho Securities USA and Raymond James & Associates.

Their outlooks boil down to a simple thesis: Many Americans will continue to have a difficult time finding a single-family home that they can afford to buy, which will make renting a house an attractive alternative.

It starts with mortgage rates. While the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September, it’s been mostly rising since then, echoing moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

The yield, which has hovered around 4.4% this week, surged after the presidential election, reflecting expectations among investors that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies may widen the federal deficit and crank up inflation.

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Analysts at Raymond James and Associates say they see mortgage rates remaining “higher for longer,” given the outcome of the election. Last week, they reiterated their “Outperform” ratings on American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes, noting “we are increasingly confident in the longer-term outlook for single-family rental fundamentals and the industry’s growth prospects.”

They also believe the two companies will continue to benefit from “outsized demographic demand for suburban homes,” and the monthly payment gap between renting and owning a home, which they estimate can be as much as 30% less to rent.

Analysts at Mizuho also expect that homeownership affordability hurdles will maintain “a supportive backdrop” and stoke demand for rental houses, helping American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes to maintain their tenant retention rates.

The companies are averaging higher new and renewal tenant lease rates when compared to several of the largest U.S. apartment owners, including AvalonBay, Equity Residential and Camden Property Trust, according to Mizuho. It has an “Outperform” rating on American Homes 4 Rent and a “Neutral” rating on Invitation Homes.

Shares in Invitation Homes are down 1.2% so far this year, while American Homes 4 Rent is up 4.4%. That’s well below the S&P 500’s 24% gain in the same period.

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While individual homeowners and mom-and-pop investors still account for the vast majority of single-family rental homes, homebuilders have stepped up construction of new houses planned for rental communities.

In the third quarter, builders broke ground on about 24,000 single-family homes slated to become rentals. That’s up from 17,000 a year earlier. In the second quarter, single-family rental starts climbed to 25,000, the highest quarterly total going back to at least 1990, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data by the National Association of Home Builders.

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