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What’s next after Scotland lost its case for a new independence vote?

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What’s next after Scotland lost its case for a new independence vote?

The UK Supreme Court docket has dominated that Scotland’s parliament cannot organise its personal independence referendum.

Wednesday’s determination was unanimous. It confirmed that the Scottish authorities did not have the authorized authority to introduce laws that will enable a brand new vote with out Westminister’s permission — one thing successive governments in London have refused to provide. 

Regardless of Wednesday’s ruling, the problem of Scottish independence will not be going away. 

The variety of Scots is cut up evenly between those that wish to keep a part of the UK, and those that need out.   

So what occurs subsequent? Predicting the longer term in politics is notoriously troublesome, however there are three essential situations that might play out in Scotland.

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1. The Scottish Nationwide Social gathering may bide their time

The SNP may wait till the subsequent UK nationwide election scheduled for 2025, hoping that they’ll safe an elevated majority, strengthening their case for independence.

“We wish this to be past doubt,” stated Ruaridh Hanna, an SNP activist. 

“We have to persuade extra folks [that] independence is the easiest way ahead,” he informed Euronews. 

If the SNP have been to return an excellent larger vote in 2025, Hanna believes this is able to bolster the case for a second referendum and put stress on Westminster to permit one, each at residence and internationally.

Whereas recognising it was nonetheless too early to inform, he hoped that the “clear democratic deficit” proven by the British authorities in not allowing the vote would enhance help for independence.

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“Lots of people round Scotland in the present day, who have been sitting on the fence earlier than, will likely be listening to the night information tonight and considering, how is that this proper?

“This can’t be a voluntary union if there was no means out,” he added, suggesting it turns into one thing “moderately sinister” if Scotland is “held hostage” throughout the UK.

Nonetheless, many have argued that this technique may backfire.

If the SNP continues to give attention to securing a second referendum, which appears unlikely for now, there’s a danger Scots may develop annoyed at a seemingly pointless distraction from different points, particularly throughout the midst of recession and a price of dwelling disaster.

In an announcement, the Scottish Conservatives known as on the SNP to “drop their referendum obsession and give attention to what actually issues to the folks of Scotland.”

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“The nation faces monumental challenges proper now,” stated celebration chief Douglas Ross. “Our economic system and our NHS are in disaster.”

Plus there’s each probability the 2025 election is not going to dramatically enhance the fortunes of the SNP, setting the celebration up for a rerun of what has occurred earlier than.

Karlo Basta, who co-directs Edinburgh College’s Centre on Constitutional Change, stated he was “sceptical” that help for independence would rise on account of the Supreme Court docket’s determination.

“We do not have a crystal ball … proper now it is open-ended. But when I needed to wager, I’d guess that it is not going to essentially change issues considerably,” he stated. “However once more, I could also be unsuitable.”

2. The Scottish Nationwide Social gathering may quietly park independence

A second believable situation is that the problem of independence could possibly be put to mattress by the SNP, at the least quickly.

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“In fact, there is a fairly excessive help for independence within the opinion polls,” stated Basta.“But the longer the SNP continues pushing for independence with none tangible outcomes, the extra stress there’ll in all probability be on it to do one thing totally different.”

He steered the Scottish nationalists confronted “very troublesome selections” over the subsequent few years.

They might “pivot away” from independence within the medium time period –- one thing he stated was not “significantly interesting” for the celebration membership –- or proceed to interact in “political manoeuvers” that don’t find yourself with independence, and danger dropping electoral help. 

They could find yourself “parking independence and dedicating themselves to maybe deepening or extending devolution,” he stated. “However this will likely be troublesome to do on account of inside celebration opposition”.

Once more there’s doubt this can occur.

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“So long as the SNP is a political celebration, and Scotland stays within the Union, the SNP will marketing campaign for independence,” stated Ruaridh Hanna.

He continued: Independence “is clearly essential to the citizens in Scotland … the SNP could be doing a disservice to the citizens to disregard the desires of the folks.”

The SNP have gained eight elections in a row because the first independence referendum in 2014. The celebration, along with the Scottish Greens, maintain the biggest pro-independence majority that there has ever been in Holyrood.

Nonetheless, confronted with the present deadlock, Hanna stated the SNP wanted to “discover different choices.”

“There will be a convention with celebration members within the new 12 months to take a look at precisely how that takes place and what form that takes.”

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“There are lots of questions that have to be ironed out over the subsequent few months,” he added. “We do not have the solutions proper now”.

3. Keep on regardless

Some have argued that the SNP ought to go forward and perform the referendum, with out the approval of Westminster.

In 2017, Catalonia held a referendum on splitting with Spain that the nation’s authorities had declared unlawful. Supporters of independence gained by 90%, although giant numbers of no voters didn’t flip up.

Nonetheless, the SNP and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon have repeatedly, firmly, dominated this out. 

Talking after the decision, Sturgeon stated her celebration would respect the Supreme Court docket’s determination.

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“In securing Scotland’s independence, we’ll at all times be guided by a dedication to democracy and respect for the rule of regulation,” she stated.

One purpose behind the SNP’s want to go down the authorized route, defined Basta, was that it desires “worldwide recognition”.

“Moreover, they’re absolutely conscious that in the event that they have been to go forward and attempt to stage some type of unilateral bid at independence … they might be perceived as irresponsible”.

“It will be politically unpalatable,” he added.

Many worldwide observers of the Catalan vote dominated that it was illegitimate as a result of it had not been sanctioned by the central authorities and failed to fulfill sure electoral requirements.

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Regardless of the case, Hanna stated the decision must be pause for thought for all.

“To those that don’t stay in Scotland, they need to be asking themselves what does this imply for democracy basically.”

“If the UK Authorities is severely taking place the trail of denying democracy inside its personal borders. What worldwide ramifications does that carry? Does that set precedents for different nations,” he added.

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Live Updates: Kenyan President Vows to Prevent Violence ‘At Whatever Cost’

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President Ruto spoke after demonstrators in Nairobi breached the Parliament to protest the passage of a bill raising taxes on many basics. At least five people were killed, according to Amnesty International and several civic organizations.

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Ukraine's Zelenskyy replaces military's commander of joint forces

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Ukraine's Zelenskyy replaces military's commander of joint forces
  • President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced the replacement of Lieutenant-General Yuri Sodol as the commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
  • Zelenskyy named Brigadier-General Andriy Hnatov as Sodol’s successor, who will handle strategic planning of operations.
  • Sodol’s removal followed a letter by Bohdan Krotevych, head of Ukraine’s Azov regiment, accusing Sodol of actions leading to military setbacks.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday he had replaced the commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Lieutenant-General Yuri Sodol, after reports surfaced that he had performed badly in the 28-month-old war against Russia.

Zelenskyy, speaking in his nightly video address, gave no reason for the dismissal. He said Sodol had been replaced by Brigadier-General Andriy Hnatov in the post, which involves strategic planning of operations.

Sodol’s removal, one of a series of personnel changes, followed publication of a letter by the head of Ukraine’s revered Azov regiment, Bohdan Krotevych, in which he alleged that Sodol’s actions had led to serious military setbacks.

RUSSIA BLAMES US AFTER UKRAINIAN ATTACK ON CRIMEA LEAVES SEVERAL DEAD, WOUNDED

In a post on the Telegram messaging app, Krotevych did not identify Sodol by name, but said an unnamed general “has killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during an interview in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 20, 2024. Zelenskyy said on Monday he had replaced the commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Lieutenant-General Yuri Sodol, after reports surfaced that he had performed badly in the 28-month-old war against Russia. (REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

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“What I do care about is that combat battalion and brigade commanders are put on trial for losing an observation post, but a general is not put on trial for losing regions, dozens of cities and thousands of soldiers,” Krotevych wrote.

“All the military personnel now understand who I am talking about because 99 percent of the military hate him for what he does.”

The news outlet Ukrainska Pravda, citing a leaked report, said a criminal complaint had been submitted concerning Sodol, who was promoted earlier this year, although it did not identify him. It said Krotevych was willing to testify against him.

Hnatov had served as deputy commander of the southern theater of operations since 2022 and played a leading role in recapturing much of southern Kherson region from Russian invaders.

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In the spring of 2023, he commanded the defense of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, a town that eventually fell to Russian forces after many months of pitched battles.

Krotevych, in a social media post after the president’s announcement, described Hnatov as a “very worthy officer”.

With Russian forces making gains and slowly advancing through eastern Ukraine in recent months, the military has undergone considerable changes.

The military top commander, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, was dismissed in February after public differences with Zelenskyy over the conduct of the war.

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A right to drink? Inside the debate to protect US workers against the heat

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A right to drink? Inside the debate to protect US workers against the heat

Dallas, Texas – More than a decade later, Eva Marroquin’s voice still shakes when she talks about it.

The 51-year-old mother of five had been working construction in Austin, Texas, for about five years when she heard that a friend had died of heat exposure at a worksite. It was 2012, and he had been helping to build a bridge at the intersection of two local highways.

“He just couldn’t get to the water in time,” Marroquin said.

The news shook Marroquin, who had experienced her own close calls with the sweltering temperatures that broil the southern United States in the summertime.

After days of painting walls or cleaning up sites, Marroquin’s face would burn red in the heat. Sometimes, she felt feverish and dizzy. Her throat would even close. It left her with haunting thoughts of what her friend must have lived through in his final moments.

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“I distinctly remember how that felt, and it made me want to speak up even more,” Marroquin told Al Jazeera.

Marroquin is among the advocates pushing for greater protections for workers facing extreme temperatures in the US.

The US Department of Health and Human Services found that heat-related deaths overall have been on the rise, as climate change drives temperatures to new heights. In 2023, an estimated 2,302 people died from heat-related conditions, up from 1,722 in 2022 and 1,602 in 2021.

But in the US, there are no federal protections specifically designed to protect workers from environmental heat.

Marroquin and other workplace advocates are lobbying to change that — but in the meantime, state and local governments in the US have been duking it out over the authority to protect workers from the stifling heat.

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Employees in Riverwoods, Illinois, work through a heat dome that spread across the midwestern and northeastern United States on June 17 [Nam Y Huh/AP Photo]

A fight between state and local authority

On July 1, a new law comes into effect in Florida that reflects those tensions.

Last summer was the hottest on record in the state, prompting Miami-Dade County to consider an ordinance that would mandate heat safety training, regular breaks and access to water during high-temperature days.

But Florida Governor Ron DeSantis blocked that attempt, signing a law that instead banned local governments from establishing their own workplace safety requirements for heat exposure.

“There was a lot of concern out of one county, Miami-Dade,” DeSantis told local press at the time, warning that the local ordinance would have caused “a lot of problems”.

Florida was the second state in recent months to pass such a law. In 2023, Texas Governor Greg Abbott also signed what critics called the “Death Star” bill — so named for its ability to destroy local regulations that went beyond existing state mandates.

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It, too, prevented municipalities from implementing their own heat safety laws, effectively killing ordinances in areas like Austin and Dallas. Houston and other cities have challenged the law in court.

As in Florida, however, proponents of the law have argued that a patchwork of local regulations would be too cumbersome for companies to navigate. Business groups also warned of “local government overreach”.

“The Texas law is mostly focused on preventing the big municipalities from doing basically anything that might make doing business in Texas inconvenient or location-specific,” said Alison Grinter, a civil rights lawyer in the Dallas metropolitan area.

She explained that the oil and gas industries have long held sway in Texas politics and helped craft the state’s business-friendly reputation. That, in turn, has attracted technology and finance companies to the state as well.

Grinter added that part of the motive for blocking the local ordinances was also political. While the Texas state government is dominated by Republicans, several of its biggest cities — including Houston and Austin — are led by Democrats.

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“For culture war purposes, the idea that there are four or five different big oases in the middle of the state that are sanctuaries from all of the reactionary social laws really galls lawmakers,” Grinter said.

Still, only five states have taken it upon themselves to pass heat-exposure protections. They include California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Minnesota.

“The Texas government doesn’t want local laws, but they also don’t want a statewide law,” said Ana Gonzalez of the Texas AFL-CIO, a labour union. “So workers are stuck.”

Governor Ron DeSantis speaks into a microphone in front of a screen that shows his presidential campaign logo.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill this year that bans local governments from passing their own standards for environmental heat safety [File: Michael Dwyer/AP Photo]

Petitioning the federal government

That gridlock on the state and local level has shifted the battle over workplace protections to the federal government.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) mandates that employers implement a workplace safety policy, but it does not indicate how that policy must address heat protection.

That may be changing, though. In 2021, OSHA announced it would start to develop a rule to mitigate the risks of heat-related injuries and deaths for workers, and a spokesperson, Kimberly Darby, told Al Jazeera that this month marked an important step forward.

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“Last week, OSHA’s proposed rule was sent to the Office of Management and Budget for review,” Darby said. “We are another step closer to giving workers the protections they need and deserve.”

The proposed rule, however, has yet to be published — and its exact contents are therefore unknown. In addition, new OSHA rules can take years to achieve final approval.

So some advocates are looking to another federal body: the Federal Emergency Management Agency or FEMA.

On June 17, 31 organisations — including immigrants’ rights groups, environmental nonprofits and farmworkers unions — petitioned FEMA (PDF) to provide disaster relief funds for extreme heat, as well as areas affected by wildfire smoke.

It is part of a broader effort to convince the federal government to step in for their local counterparts, according to Will Humble, who signed the petition on behalf of the Arizona Public Health Association, a nonprofit.

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“Planning for and saving lives is a state and local responsibility,” Humble told Al Jazeera. “But FEMA really should include heat emergencies in their funding. Many county health departments are understaffed.”

An electronic billboard shows the temperature to be 108 degrees Fahrenheit. Behind the billboard, the skyline of Phoenix, Arizona, is lit by an orange sunset.
Cities like Phoenix, Arizona, reported a record number of days with triple-digit heat last year [File: Matt York/AP Photo]

‘Not seen as human’

In the absence of strong federal action, activists like Christine Bolaños say that employers are left with all the power to decide how to address extreme heat in the workplace, leaving workers at risk.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), at least 600 workers died from heat exposure while working from 2005 to 2021. An additional 43 deaths were documented in 2022 alone.

Experts indicate the actual number is likely higher, as heat-related deaths are difficult to track.

A broad swath of the workforce is at risk, too. The bureau estimates that 33 percent of American employees spend time outdoors as part of their everyday work.

Especially vulnerable are foreign-born Latino labourers, including both legal and undocumented immigrants, who represent a disproportionate number of work-related deaths.

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Though these workers make up only 8.2 percent of the workforce, they represent 14 percent of on-the-job fatalities. The bureau also noted that Latino workers make up the majority of the construction and agricultural labour, two industries where heat exposure is an acute risk.

Bolaños — a staff member at the Workers Defense Project, a community organisation that fights for the rights of low-wage immigrant construction workers in Texas — said the heightened risks are part of a pattern of exploitation.

“Immigrant workers are especially prone to wage theft and other violations of their rights, and they’re often not aware of their rights,” said Bolaños.

The lack of heat-related protections, she added, was a reflection of how workplaces perceive these employees.

“Sometimes, they’re not seen as human,” Bolaños said. “They are not valued for their humanity, just what they can produce. Employers forget workers need to drink water. They need shade; they need breaks.”

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Representative Greg Casar stands in front of the Capitol dome with fellow demonstrators.
US Representative Greg Casar of Texas has led ‘thirst strikes’ on the steps of the US Capitol [File: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]

‘The monster is here’

Congressman Greg Casar, a Texas Democrat, believes part of the problem is also scepticism towards climate change itself — and a resistance to addressing its dangers.

“Many of us progressives used to campaign on ‘the climate crisis is coming,’ and we were accused of making up a monster that didn’t exist,” Casar told Al Jazeera.

“Now the monster is here, and the things we’re fighting for have become so basic. We’re arguing over food and housing. We’re arguing over people having the right to a water break.”

Casar has spent years organising demonstrations to showcase the plight of workers — including through “thirst strikes”, where he and others refused to drink for hours, to demonstrate the risks of extreme heat.

At a “thirst strike” last year, Marroquin’s coarse, strong hands clutched a sign that read, “PEOPLE OVER PROFITS”.

Tears flowed from her eyes, which she says have been damaged by the sun and heat. She explained she developed pterygium, a kind of fleshy growth near one of her eyes, from her exposure to hot, dry conditions.

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Now, a year later, Marroquin told Al Jazeera she hopes change will come soon. Just this month, she spoke to OSHA about her experience and gave feedback on the forthcoming federal rule.

“It’s really difficult to implement laws about work,” she conceded. “But we have to demand that OSHA implements rules as a whole across construction sites, in the same way they demand scaffolding is built in a certain way.”

But even with a federal standard on the way, advocates and legal experts are wary. Several told Al Jazeera that new OSHA rules are notoriously difficult to pass because of understaffing and a high standard of review, as well as potential legal challenges.

Gonzalez, the advocate from the Texas AFL-CIO, said she was bracing for the mandatory public commenting period for the eventual rule — at which time, she expects corporations to weigh in.

“I’m sure there will be pushback from the state or associations, because the rule will impact all industries,” she said. “But hopefully, this is going to prevent people from dying.”

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