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Ukraine’s Warning

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Ukraine’s Warning

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may mark a troubling shift: the tip of a comparatively peaceable world period.

Although it has not at all times felt prefer it, the world has because the Nineteen Nineties endured much less struggle than another interval in recorded historical past. Wars and ensuing deaths plummeted with the conclusion of the Chilly Conflict in 1991 — and the following finish of direct and proxy conflicts between the world’s nice powers.

“The top of the Chilly Conflict was the best factor to occur to peace in a very long time,” mentioned Jeremy Shapiro, the analysis director on the European Council on International Relations.

However the world has since modified. After rising from the Chilly Conflict because the lone superpower, the U.S. grew weaker, slowed down by failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the meantime, Russia and China advanced into extra formidable powers; they’re now higher positioned to problem a world formed by American norms and guidelines.

Invading Ukraine is the most important instance of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to problem a U.S.-led order. One other is Russia’s intervention within the Syrian civil struggle. China has its personal pursuits — in controlling Taiwan and rising affect in East and Southeast Asia.

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The strengthening alliance between Russia and China in recent times additionally suggests they’re sketching new strains of worldwide competitors. And in response to those threats, different potential nice powers, like Europe, are rebuilding their very own militaries.

Peace, specialists mentioned, has not seemed this fragile in many years.

For a lot of human historical past, struggle was the norm. Between the sixteenth and 18th centuries, nice powers battled one another most years. And within the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, they fought in conflicts that culminated in two world wars that killed greater than 100 million folks and displaced tens of thousands and thousands extra.

However after the Chilly Conflict, the speed of recent conflicts fell greater than half, in accordance with Bear Braumoeller, a global safety skilled at Ohio State College. The conflicts that did happen have been on a smaller scale. Deaths from struggle plummeted. (A part of that lower was additionally due to militaries getting higher at treating wounded troopers.)

The drop was unprecedented, William Wohlforth, a global relations skilled at Dartmouth Faculty, advised me. “We will’t discover one other interval with a shift in battle traits that compares,” he mentioned.

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A number of elements factored into this peace. There was an absence of nice energy competitors; no nation may significantly problem america. Nuclear weapons additionally continued to discourage nations from warring towards one another, given the doubtless apocalyptic penalties. An more and more built-in world economic system made any struggle a danger to everybody’s continued progress. And peacekeeping establishments, just like the U.N. and the E.U., created shops for nations to attempt to settle disputes and implement antiwar guidelines (though not at all times efficiently).

One other aspect: Nice energy is not synonymous with an urge for food for conquest. U.S. officers within the nation’s century as a superpower have considered makes an attempt to take over different nations as a direct path to sinking the world order they’d constructed and led. America’s personal acts of aggression — in Vietnam, Panama, Iraq and elsewhere — have been aimed toward upholding that order, nonetheless flawed the justifications.

Russia and China by no means preferred the concept of a U.S.-led world order. For many years, each have known as for a brand new construction wherein they get a much bigger, and even dominant, say over how the world works.

Russia has its personal imperial ambitions in Jap Europe, and it views NATO’s enlargement towards its western doorstep as an existential menace.

China has benefited economically from the liberal order and globalization. However its leaders additionally need to oppress home dissidents, the democratic authorities in Taiwan, protesters in Hong Kong and predominantly Muslim Uighurs, amongst others, with out outdoors interference.

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These are longstanding targets for Russia and China, however they now have a larger skill to behave on their beliefs. Putin has cemented his rule after greater than 20 years in energy, and in that point he moved to modernize Russia’s navy (although the stalemate in Ukraine has uncovered main weaknesses). China has grown its economic system to some extent that it might quickly rival america’, and it’s increasing its navy energy and regional affect as properly.

That would result in extra nice energy competitors — probably by means of a brand new wave of proxy wars between these nations and the West or, worse, direct battle.

However any nice shift on this planet order hinges largely on what China does, as the one actual rival to the U.S. Given the dangers of struggle, China may proceed to pursue its pursuits with financial or diplomatic levers over navy drive, mentioned Stacie Goddard, a global safety skilled at Wellesley Faculty.

China additionally has repeatedly known as for respecting each nation’s sovereignty. There are good causes to be skeptical of that pledge, together with China’s pursuits in Taiwan and its continued help for Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. But when China means it, the struggle in Ukraine may find yourself trying much less like an indication of what’s to return and extra like a lethal final gasp from the Chilly Conflict period.

  • President Biden denounced Russia’s invasion and declared that Putin “can not stay in energy.” However a White Home official downplayed the chance that Biden had known as for the Russian president to step down.

  • Whereas Biden was touring in Poland, two rocket strikes hit Lviv in western Ukraine, not removed from the Polish border. The strikes undercut earlier alerts that Russia had narrowed its ambitions.

  • Western officers, nonetheless, have picked up chatter amongst senior Russian commanders about giving up on capturing Kyiv and different key areas in Ukraine, in accordance with two folks with entry to intelligence.

  • Ukrainian forces have mounted a counteroffensive within the Kyiv suburbs to dam Russia’s path to the capital, destroying tanks and killing Russian troops.

  • Biden is anticipated to launch his funds proposal tomorrow for the fiscal yr that begins in October.

  • Israel hosts a historic summit beginning immediately. It will likely be the primary assembly with high officers from three Arab nations to happen on Israeli soil.

  • Faculty basketball’s Closing 4 video games are this week. The ladies’s groups play on Friday, and the lads’s on Saturday. Observe The Instances’s protection.

  • The Oscars are at 8 p.m. Jap tonight. Right here is Melissa Kirsch’s information for watching.


The Sunday query: Will Ketanji Brown Jackson change the Supreme Courtroom?

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Her affirmation wouldn’t alter the courtroom’s conservative majority, however she may subtly form the legislation by introducing new concepts or compromising along with her conservative friends, Jamal Greene argues in The Instances. And liberals may simply retake the bulk within the many years Jackson is prone to be on the courtroom, The Wall Road Journal’s editorial board notes.

The E-book Overview podcast: Fintan O’Toole discusses his new guide, “We Don’t Know Ourselves,” which weaves memoir and historical past to inform the story of contemporary Eire.

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Trump's words on Greenland and borders ring alarms in Europe, but officials have a measured response

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Trump's words on Greenland and borders ring alarms in Europe, but officials have a measured response

PARIS (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump has tossed expansionist rhetoric at U.S. allies and potential adversaries with arguments that the frontiers of American power need to be extended into Canada and the Danish territory of Greenland, and southward to include the Panama Canal.

Trump’s suggestions that international borders can be redrawn — by force if necessary — are particularly inflammatory in Europe. His words run contrary to the argument European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are trying to impress on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But many European leaders — who’ve learned to expect the unexpected from Trump and have seen that actions don’t always follow his words — have been measured in their response, with some taking a nothing-to-see-here view rather than vigorously defend European Union member Denmark.

Analysts, though, say that even words can damage U.S.-European relations ahead of Trump’s second presidency.

A diplomatic response in Europe

Several officials in Europe — where governments depend on U.S. trade, energy, investment, technology, and defense cooperation for security — emphasized their belief that Trump has no intention of marching troops into Greenland.

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“I think we can exclude that the United States in the coming years will try to use force to annex territory that interests it,” Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pushed back — but carefully, saying “borders must not be moved by force” and not mentioning Trump by name.

This week, as Ukrainian President Zelenskyy pressed Trump’s incoming administration to continue supporting Ukraine, he said: “No matter what’s going on in the world, everyone wants to feel sure that their country will not just be erased off the map.”

Since Putin marched troops across Ukrainian borders in 2022, Zelenskyy and allies have been fighting — at great cost — to defend the principle that has underpinned the international order since World War II: that powerful nations can’t simply gobble up others.

The British and French foreign ministers have said they can’t foresee a U.S. invasion of Greenland. Still, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot portrayed Trump’s remarks as a wake-up call.

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“Do we think we’re entering into a period that sees the return of the law of the strongest?” the French minister said. “‘Yes.”

On Friday, the prime minister of Greenland — a semiautonomous Arctic territory that isn’t part of the EU but whose 56,000 residents are EU citizens, as part of Denmark — said its people don’t want to be Americans but that he’s open to greater cooperation with the U.S.

“Cooperation is about dialogue,” leader Múte B. Egede said.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the U.S. “our closest ally” and said: “We have to stand together.”

Analysts find Trump’s words troubling

European security analysts agreed there’s no real likelihood of Trump using the military against NATO ally Denmark, but nevertheless expressed profound disquiet.

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Analysts warned of turbulence ahead for trans-Atlantic ties, international norms and the NATO military alliance — not least because of the growing row with member Canada over Trump’s repeated suggestions that it become a U.S. state.

“There is a possibility, of course, that this is just … a new sheriff in town,” said Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, who specializes in foreign policy, Russia and Greenland at the Danish Institute for International Studies. “I take some comfort from the fact that he is now insisting that Canada should be included in the U.S., which suggests that it is just sort of political bravado.

“But damage has already been done. And I really cannot remember a previous incident like this where an important ally — in this case the most important ally — would threaten Denmark or another NATO member state.”

Hansen said he fears NATO may be falling apart even before Trump’s inauguration.

“I worry about our understanding of a collective West,” he said. “What does this even mean now? What may this mean just, say, one year from now, two years from now, or at least by the end of this second Trump presidency? What will be left?”

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Security concerns as possible motivation

Some diplomats and analysts see a common thread in Trump’s eyeing of Canada, the Panama Canal and Greenland: securing resources and waterways to strengthen the U.S. against potential adversaries.

Paris-based analyst Alix Frangeul-Alves said Trump’s language is “all part of his ‘Make America Great Again’ mode.”

In Greenland’s soils, she noted, are rare earths critical for advanced and green technologies. China dominates global supplies of the valuable minerals, which the U.S., Europe and other nations view as a security risk.

“Any policy made in Washington is made through the lens of the competition with China,” said Frangeul-Alves, who focuses on U.S. politics for the German Marshall Fund.

Some observers said Trump’s suggested methods are fraught with peril.

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Security analyst Alexander Khara said Trump’s claim that “we need Greenland for national security purposes” reminded him of Putin’s comments on Crimea when Russia seized the strategic Black Sea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.

Suggesting that borders might be flexible is “a completely dangerous precedent,” said Khara, director of the Centre for Defense Strategies in Kyiv.

“We’re in a time of transition from the old system based on norms and principles,” he said, and “heading to more conflicts, more chaos and more uncertainty.”

___

AP journalists Jill Lawless in London; Raf Casert in Brussels; Daria Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia; Geir Moulson and David Keyton in Berlin; and Nicole Winfield in Rome contributed.

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Trump setting up meeting with Putin, in communication with Xi

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Trump setting up meeting with Putin, in communication with Xi

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President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday that his team is in the works of setting up meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

“He wants to meet. And we’re setting it up,” he told reporters during a press conference from his Mar-a-Lago club regarding Putin. “President Xi – we’ve had a lot of communication. We have a lot of meetings set up with a lot of people. 

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“I’d rather wait until after the 20th,” he added in reference to his inauguration date later this month.

“President Putin wants to meet,” Trump added. “We have to get that war over.”

Then-President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on Friday, June 28, 2019. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

RUSSIA MONITORING TRUMP’S ‘DRAMATIC’ COMMENTS ON GREENLAND ACQUISITION

Trump pointed to the “staggering” casualty rates endured by both Russia and Ukraine and suggested the number of civilian casualties was also likely to be considerably higher than what has been reported. 

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The Kremlin confirmed Trump’s comments on Friday and said it was ready “to resolve problems through dialogue,” reported Russian news agency Tass.

The Trump-appointed special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Gen. Keith Kellogg, told Fox News Digital that he has set a goal to end the war in Ukraine within 100 days of taking up the top job. 

Kellogg described the war as “carnage” but said he was confident that Trump can end the war in the “near term.”

The retired three-star general told Fox News’ “America Reports” on Thursday that he and Trump are going to make sure the cease-fire agreement is “fair” and “equitable,” though he did not detail what this means as far as withdrawing Russian forces from Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. 

Trump Zelenskyy New York

Former President Donald Trump, right, meets with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Trump Tower on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024 in New York. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Trump has not detailed how he intends to end the three-year-long war, though he suggested he could support Putin’s demand that Ukraine be barred from entering the NATO alliance, and told reporters Thursday he “could understand [Putin’s] feeling about” not wanting NATO “on their doorstep.”

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Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow already had four nations on its borders that were members of the international security alliance, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Finland then joined NATO in 2023, applying for membership just 3 months after the Feb. 22, 2022 invasion. 

Moscow and Kyiv have made clear that stipulations surrounding Ukraine’s NATO membership are non-negotiable. 

NATO LEADERS PREDICT ERA OF 2% DEFENSE SPENDING ‘PROBABLY HISTORY’ AS TRUMP REPORTEDLY FLOATS HIGHER TARGET

Trump Xi Jinping

Then-President Trump, left, meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Trump did not detail when he could meet with the Chinese president, and it remains unclear if Xi has plans to meet personally with him.

Trump reportedly invited Xi to his inauguration ceremony, though Beijing said it would instead send a top-level envoy, which is more inline with tradition. 

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In his final meeting with President Biden in November, Xi had expressed a willingness to work with the former and soon-to-be president of the United States.

However, Trump, who once said he and Xi “love each other,” in late-November promised to hit China with 60% tariffs and then this week said he would consider using military action to seize the Panama Canal, which the U.S. returned to Panama in 1979 before then ending its partnership over control of the strategic thoroughfare in 1999.

“The Panama Canal is vital to our country and its being operated by China – China. We gave the Panama Canal to Panama – we didn’t give it to China,” he added. 

ships pass through panama canal

The Marshall Islands cargo ship Cape Hellas and the Portuguese cargo ship MSC Elma sail on Gatun Lake near the Agua Clara Locks of the Panama Canal in Colon City, Panama, on Dec. 28, 2024. (ARNULFO FRANCO/AFP via Getty Images)

Fox News Digital could not immediately reach the Panama Embassy in Washington, D.C., for comment.

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The Trump transition team did not respond to questions by Fox News Digital over concerns of sparking a military confrontation with China in Panama. 

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Brussels, my love? Poland's New Year's resolution

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Brussels, my love? Poland's New Year's resolution

In this edition, we ask if Poland’s Donald Tusk can steer Europe to safety as he takes on the rotating presidency of the EU’s Council; and whether the extraordinary interventions of Elon Musk make him the king of free speech — or a threat to democracy.

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We are joined by Antonios Nestoras, founder of think tank EPIC, Dorota Bawolek, Brussels correspondent for Poland’s TVP and Euronews senior reporter Jack Schickler.

In the first ‘Brussels, my love?’ episode of 2025, we look ahead to the challenges likely to be faced this year in Europe and the world.

The panel looks at the implications of a new Presidency for the EU’s Council, after Warsaw took over the reins chairing ministerial meetings as of 1 January.

Dorota Bawolek says the EU will be in safe hands with Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the helm.

“The Polish government at the moment is the most stable one in Europe,” she said, citing a governing coalition of social democrats, liberals and the centre-right. “Europe is lucky to have Poland driving her for the next six months.”

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Antonios Nestoras said he’s happy to see Poland take over from Hungary, and welcomes Warsaw’s pledge to “make Europe strong again”.

“If the EU cannot provide security, then what the hell are we doing here?”, he said.

The panel also reacted to Elon Musk’s fervent support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in upcoming elections, and his attacks on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Jack Schickler called it an “extraordinary intervention”.

“Russia isn’t the only place with oligarchs: the US has some of its own,” he said, though “I doubt that we’ll see sanctions”.

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Antonios Nestoras says Elon Musk has a brilliant mind but should stay out of politics.

“He is really naïve if he thinks that the twentieth century divisive politics that AfD stands for is the solution for the future that can save Germany,” he said. “None of the European countries can be saved by themselves: we need Europe”.

Watch ‘Brussels, my love?’ in the player above.

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