World
The fate of the latest cease-fire proposal hinges on Netanyahu and Hamas’ leader in Gaza
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The fate of the proposed cease-fire deal for Gaza hinges in many ways on two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar.
Each leader faces significant political and personal pressures that may be influencing their decision-making. And neither seems to be in a rush to make concessions to end the devastating eight-month-long war and free hostages taken by Hamas in its Oct. 7 attack.
Hamas has accepted the broad outline of the plan but requested “amendments.” Netanyahu has publicly disputed aspects of it, even though the U.S. has framed it as an Israeli plan.
Among the major sticking points is how to move from an initial temporary truce in the deal’s first phase to a permanent cease-fire that includes an end to the fighting and full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Here is a look at what may be driving the two leaders:
Netanyahu is ‘buying time’
Throughout the war, the long-serving Israeli leader has been criticized for letting political considerations get in the way of his decision-making.
His government is buoyed by two ultranationalist parties that oppose cease-fire deals. Instead, they prefer continuous military pressure to try to defeat Hamas and free the hostages. They also talk about “encouraging” Palestinians to leave and reestablishing Israeli settlements, which were dismantled when Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 after a 38-year occupation.
Netanyahu himself has taken a tough line on the cease-fire, saying he will not end the war until Hamas’ military and governing capabilities are destroyed.
But with his hard-line partners pledging to topple the government if a cease-fire is struck, Netanyahu has been pushed even farther into the corner. His reliance on them to remain in power recently intensified after a centrist member of his war Cabinet, former military chief Benny Gantz, quit over frustrations with Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict.
Netanyahu has had to balance internal pressures against demands from the Biden administration, which is promoting the latest cease-fire proposal, and from families of hostages who believe only a deal can set their loved ones free. Tens of thousands of Israelis have joined mass protests in support of the hostage families.
Netanyahu appears to be siding with his far-right governing partners for the moment, knowing they hold the key to his immediate political survival, although he says he has the country’s best interests in mind.
Their departure from the government could lead to new elections, which would open him up to a vote that could end his rule and likely the start of investigations into the failures of Oct. 7.
Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption, proceedings that have continued throughout the war yet have faded from the public consciousness. A cease-fire deal could refocus attention on the charges, which have dogged the Israeli leader for years and which he adamantly denies.
Netanyahu’s political fortunes appear to have improved over the course of the war. His public support plummeted in the aftermath of Hamas’ surprise attack on southern Israel. But over time it has gradually ticked up. While he would still face a tough path toward reelection, he isn’t a write-off.
“He runs the war as he wants, which means very slowly. He’s buying time,” said Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israeli Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think thank, and chairman of the political science department at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University.
Rahat said Netanyahu is also keen to push on with the war in the hopes that former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to office, possibly giving Israel more leeway in its fight against Hamas.
“I don’t see any cease-fire that really comes close to being something he adopts,” Rahat said. “But he’s not the only one that controls reality.”
Sinwar’s mission is to survive
Hamas’ leader in Gaza also appears to be in no rush to sign on to a deal.
The militant group’s exiled leadership is somewhat varied in its opinion on how to approach a cease-fire agreement. But Sinwar — the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks — has particular weight on the matter.
As a Hamas stalwart who spent decades in Israeli prisons, he has incentives to keep the war going.
On a personal level, his life may be on the line. Israel vowed to kill him in response to the October assault, and Sinwar is believed to be hiding deep within Gaza’s underground tunnels surrounded by Israeli hostages.
If a cease-fire takes hold, Sinwar will be taking a great risk stepping out in public.
“I think he understands that he’s kind of a dead man walking. But it’s a matter of how long can he hold out?” said Khaled el-Gindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank.
But Sinwar is motivated by more than just his own personal fate. Steeped in Hamas’ radical ideology, Sinwar seeks Israel’s destruction and has made political gains by watching the war harm Israel’s international standing and boost support for the Palestinian cause.
Israel has faced surging international criticism — from its Western allies, from the international justice system, from protesters around the world — over its conduct during the war. That has deepened Israel’s global isolation, brought accusations that it is committing genocide against Palestinians and driven the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court to seek the arrests of Israeli leaders.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote on the social platform X that Sinwar was also “counting on the sustained global outcry due to the horrendous killing of Gazans to force Israel to stop the war eventually,” on his own terms.
But Sinwar could face some difficult questions of his own when the war ends — not only over his personal role in the atrocities of Oct. 7 but also from the Palestinian public as the full extent of the wartime devastation and the years-long process of reconstruction sink in.
El-Gindy said Sinwar wasn’t deterred by the high price Palestinian civilians in Gaza are paying in the war, seeing it as an unavoidable sacrifice on the road toward liberation.
From Sinwar’s perspective, continuing to fight Israel’s powerful army, even if only through pockets of resistance, denies Israel a victory, el-Gindy said.
“Their whole mission is to survive,” he said. “If they survive, they win.”
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Associated Press writers Julia Frankel and Jack Jeffery contributed from Jerusalem.
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Follow AP’s coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war
World
State of the Union: Zelenskyy's attempts to drum up new support
This edition of State of the Union focuses on the crucial visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the U.S., the latest economic forecast by the EBRD and attempts to support the struggling German car industry.
For weeks now, Europe is anxiously looking at its number one economic powerhouse, Germany – to be more precise: at the country’s ailing car manufacturers, some of Germany’s industrial pillars.
A serious car crisis in the Federal Republic, triggered by a quasi-collapse of the electrical vehicle market, could have severe consequences elsewhere in the EU.
Threats of historic job cuts, plant closures at Volkswagen and plunging earnings at Mercedes-Benz and BMW prompted emergency talks at Berlin’s economy ministry this week.
But given strained federal finances and fights with China over tariffs, the government’s toolbox is rather empty.
Nonetheless, economy minister Robert Habeck expressed his willingness to help but excluded quick fixes: “Everyone has said that planning is the most important thing. And that means long-term planning. Not a flash-in-the-pan action, because this only has the effect of pumping up the market again in the short term and then possibly collapsing again.”
Germany is in the uncomfortable position today to be forced to re-orient its entire manufacturing sector that depended on cheap Russian energy.
You can already hear Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy shouting: “I told you so!”
Zelenskyy was at the United Nations this week to drum up support for what he called his “victory plan”.
He also reacted to pleas from the European far-left and far-right to negotiate with Russia:
“We know some in the world want to talk to Putin. We know it. To meet, to talk, to speak. But what could they possibly hear from him? That he’s upset because we are exercising our right to defend our people, or that he wants to keep the war and terror going just so no one thinks he was wrong.”
How the Ukrainian economy keeps suffering from the war was detailed this week by the latest outlook from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The EBRD covers not only Ukraine, but large parts of eastern Europe and central Asia. The bank’s findings are an important bellwether for the global economy.
We spoke to Beata Javorcik, the chief economist of the EBRD.
Euronews: So, your latest Regional Economic Prospects report is called “Along the adjustment path” – that sounds like a friendly way of saying “It’s disappointing”. What do the economies you invest in need to adjust to?
Javorcik: Well, the situation in Europe remains quite challenging. We continue to have very high prices of energy. Particularly the price of natural gas is five times as high as in the US. The demand for exports, particularly from Germany, is muted. Given the difficult situation of the German economy and, finally, the costs of borrowing continue to be high, there is this extra risk premium, this extra interest rate. Countries in the regions had to pay when the war in Ukraine started. And this risk premium continues to be there.
Euronews: On the upside are a decline in inflation and an increase in real wages. What exactly happened?
Javorcik: Well, by historical standards we have seen a very fast disinflation process, though of course the adjustment is not done yet. Inflation remains above the pre-COVID level, but on the positive side we have managed to avoid a hard landing. So, this fight with inflation has come without very big unpleasant effects in terms of unemployment. As the inflation episode started, we saw a big decline in real wages, but then real wages started catching up. That was visible in the last few months in the last year. They are not yet back to the pre-COVID trend, but they have certainly caught up in a significant way.
Euronews: I guess there are still some remaining inflationary pressures – what are they?
Javorcik: Inflation still remains high in some countries, such as Turkey or Egypt, still in high double digits. And depreciation of domestic currencies, which has made imports more expensive, has contributed to further inflation.
Euronews: One country is still in the spotlight: Ukraine. How are they coping with the ongoing war economically?
Javorcik: Well, despite the war early this year, so in the first quarter, Ukrainian economy managed to grow very fast. The bleak Black Sea corridor allowed Ukraine to export grain as well as metals and ores. But then this heavy bombing and destruction of electricity infrastructure happened. And that made the situation very difficult. There are rolling blackouts. There are shortages of electricity. The country is importing electricity from Europe, but it comes at a higher cost. And that’s weighing down on the economy.
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Israel targets Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in strike on Beirut headquarters
The Israeli Defense Forces targeted Hezbollah leader Hassan Hasrallah in a “precise strike” Friday on the central headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut, Lebanon.
IDF spokesperson Rear admiral Daniel Hagari said the headquarters were intentionally built in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut under residential buildings “as part of Hezbollah’s strategy of using Lebanese people as human shields.”
Video and images show plumes of smoke rising over Beirut following the Israeli strikes. Witnesses say they heard multiple strikes. It is unclear if Nasrallah was struck.
ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR: NETANYAHU ‘DID NOT EVEN RESPOND’ TO US CEASE-FIRE DEAL, PLEDGES TO FIGHT ‘FULL FORCE’
Hezbollah’s al-Manar television reported that four buildings were destroyed and there were many casualties in the multiple strikes, which marked an escalation of Israel’s conflict with the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Security sources in Lebanon said the attack targeted an area where top Hezbollah officials are usually based. It was the heaviest attack in Beirut in almost a year of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
HOW A US-BACKED UN RESOLUTION FAILED TO STOP HEZBOLLAH TERROR TAKEOVER: ‘BIPARTISAN FAILURE’
“On Oct. 8, Hezbollah started attacking Israel after almost a year of Hezbollah firing rockets, missiles and suicide drones at Israeli civilians,” Hagari said.
“After almost a year of Israel warning the world and telling them that Hezbollah must be stopped, Israel is doing what every sovereign state in the world would do if they had a terror organization that seeks their destruction on their border, taking the necessary action to protect our people so that Israeli families can leave their homes safely and securely.”
Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh says the U.S. was not involved in this operation and had no advance warning.
“Minister [Yoav] Gallant spoke with Secretary Austin as the operation was already underway,” Singh said. “This operation has happened within the last few hours. We are still assessing the event.”
The Pentagon also declined to speculate on whether the Hezbollah leader was still alive.
A White House official says that President Biden has been briefed on the operation.
The strikes hit Beirut shortly after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue Israel’s attacks on Iranian-backed fighters in Lebanon in a closely watched United Nations speech, as hopes faded for a cease-fire that could head off an all-out regional war.
Netanyahu will cut short his stay in the U.S. and will depart for Israel Friday, Fox News sources say. This is understood to be a rare move by an Israeli prime minister, as Shabbat is a day of rest for Jews.
WATCH: SMOKE FROM STRIKE RISES OVER BEIRUT
The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has drastically escalated over the last month as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has begun targeting the terrorist network’s hot spots and military storage units, all of which are strategically embedded within civilian villages.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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