World
The far right will probably fall short in French legislative elections
By Pierre-Alexandre Balland, Chief Data Scientist, Centre for European Policy Studies
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.
This is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems, Pierre-Alexandre Balland writes.
Sunday’s European elections stunned Europe as far-right parties surged in France.
The National Rally is set to claim about 31% of votes, more than doubling President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party at 15%.
Macron immediately announced, “I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future through voting. Therefore, I dissolve the National Assembly tonight”, calling for rapid legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July.
This rare move, which last took place in 1997, is a bit like King Arthur’s testing the gods’ trust by reinserting Excalibur.
Will a far-right government lead one of the EU’s largest members by the Paris Olympics?
Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless, and desperate.
In truth, it’s a calculated risk with potentially higher rewards than inaction. Most likely, the far right will not win the French legislative elections.
What happens if Macron’s strategy succeeds?
It would counter the prevailing narrative that the far right is taking over France. Today’s headlines suggest this trend and it’s crucial to address it early.
By returning to the voters, Macron aims to show that the European election results don’t mirror the wider political sentiment in France.
This move could also mobilise those worried about the far right’s rise, serving as a call to action. With Macron’s pro-European stance, this could significantly curb the far right’s momentum both in the EU and globally.
The National Rally — known as the National Front until 2018 — already secured first place in the European Parliament elections in 2019 and before that in 2014. But historically, the far right struggles to mirror its EU success in French national elections.
Let’s look at the popular vote. In the 2019 European elections, the National Rally received a total of 5,286,939 votes. However, three years later, during the French legislative elections, it only received 3,589,269 votes.
There is a 32.1% cut when you move from the EU to the national level. Using the same rate, the 7,765,944 votes of 9 June would shrink to 5,272,250.
In 2022, the winner (Ensemble) gathered 8,002,419 votes, and in 2017, LREM won with 7,826,245 votes. Macron is betting that the National Rally will not find an additional 2.5 million voters in less than a month.
Much more complex (and accurate) modelling strategies exist, but the main point is that replicating this win at the French level is unlikely and would represent a seismic political shift.
It’s not one round in the ring — it’s two
The drop from EU to French election results comes from different voting systems. France’s two-round electoral system for legislative elections is a significant barrier to far-right parties.
While these parties may perform well in the first round when traditional parties are divided, the second round sees a shift. Here, voters from both left and right often unite behind more moderate candidates to prevent a far-right victory, a strategy known as the “Republican Front”.
Despite making gains, the far right struggles to build the broad coalition necessary to win in the final round.
And in French parliamentary elections, results are decided locally across 577 constituencies, favouring parties with broad, evenly spread support. The National Rally may dominate specific regions but fail to achieve the widespread vote distribution necessary to win multiple seats.
Larger parties not only have more uniform support but also more resources to get strong, locally recognized candidates across all constituencies, enhancing their chances of securing a majority. The National Rally will struggle to find competitive candidates across all constituencies quickly.
And there are peculiar reasons why French voters might lean far-right in EU elections but opt for moderation nationally. Economic issues, where Macron’s party shows strength, dominate national elections and sway undecided voters.
Additionally, the perceived low impact of the European Parliament on daily life makes EU elections a safe venue for protest votes with minimal consequences. This is true in France and in Europe more generally — but Bardella’s notable absence in Strasbourg amplifies this low-risk perception.
However, the path to becoming prime minister and governing is much steeper. Macron appears to be counting on catching the National Rally off-guard and highlighting their program’s inconsistencies.
What happens if the National Rally wins?
One cannot downplay the growing influence of the far right in French politics and Europe in general.
These parties have capitalized on a wave of discontent among voters who are dissatisfied with the current government’s policies on economic development, immigration, and security.
So what if, against what I believe to be all odds, the National Rally wins and gets to govern? Then Bardella and Le Pen will be in the driver’s seat. It is much harder than being in the opposition.
If it governs badly, it will suffer a huge setback during the 2027 elections. And if it governs effectively and resolves every economic, social, and environmental issue, then we’ll all live happily ever after. So even in this less likely scenario, Macron’s strategy might be a winning one.
I don’t have a crystal ball, and this is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems.
Pierre-Alexandre Balland is Chief Data Scientist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.
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World
Sen. Cruz wants restrictions on military flights approved soon to prevent another midair collision
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Sen. Ted Cruz says he wants restrictions on military flights approved before government funding runs out at the end of next month to prevent another midair collision like the one over Washington, D.C., that killed 67 people in January.
Cruz and Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell held a news conference Monday with some of the victims’ families to denounce provisions in a massive defense bill that’s expected to pass this week. The provisions would allow military aircraft to get a waiver to return to operating without broadcasting their precise location, just as they were before the Jan. 29 crash between an airliner and an Army helicopter.
Cruz and Cantwell want the provisions removed, but changing the bill would send it back to the House, potentially delaying raises for soldiers and other key provisions. With that unlikely, Cruz said he’ll seek action to reimpose the restrictions on military flights as part of a government funding package in January.
“I’m seeking a vote on the ROTOR Act as part of any appropriations measure before the current continuing resolution expires at the end of next month,” Cruz said. ROTOR stands for “Rotorcraft Operations Transparency and Oversight Reform.”
The provision in the defense bill has rekindled debate over air safety near the nation’s capital. Before the crash in January, military helicopters routinely flew through the crowded airspace around the nation’s capital without using a key system called ADS-B to broadcast their locations. The Federal Aviation Administration began requiring all aircraft to do that in March.
National Transportation Safety Board Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy, senators, airlines and key transportation unions all sharply criticized the new helicopter safety provisions in the defense bill when they came to light.
Cruz said the defense bill provision “was airdropped in at at the last moment,” noting it would unwind actions taken by President Donald Trump and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to make the airspace around D.C. safer.
“The special carve-out was exactly what caused the January 29th crash that claimed 67 lives,” Cruz said.
The families of the crash victims said that bill would weaken safeguards and send aviation safety backwards. Amy Hunter, who lost her cousin and his family in the crash, said Trump and his administration had worked to implement safety recommendations from the NTSB, but warned those reforms could be lost in the military policy bill.
Hunter said it “now threatens to undo everything, all the progress that was already made, and it will compromise the safety around Reagan National Airport.”
The NTSB won’t release its final report on the cause of the crash until sometime next year, but investigators have already raised a number of key concerns about the 85 near misses around Ronald Reagan National Airport in the years before the crash and the helicopter route that allowed Black Hawks to fly dangerously close to planes landing at the airport’s secondary runway.
The bill Cruz and Cantwell proposed to require all aircraft to broadcast their locations has broad support from the White House, the FAA, NTSB and the victims’ families.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said he hoped the air safety legislation Cruz and Cantwell introduced last summer, called the ROTOR Act, could be added to the funding package that the Senate may start considering this week ahead of the holiday break.
“I think we’ll get there on that, but it would be really hard to undo the defense authorization bill now,” Thune, R-S.D., said.
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This story has been updated to delete erroneous reporting that Sen. Ted Cruz was threatening another federal government shutdown if new restrictions on military flights are not approved by the end of January. Rather, Cruz said he’ll seek action to reimpose the restrictions as part of a government funding package. AP members must NOT use earlier versions of US–Aviation Safety.
World
Pope Leo XIV condemns ‘antisemitic violence’ after massacre in Sydney: ‘We must eliminate hatred’
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Pope Leo XIV on Monday condemned “antisemitic violence” in the aftermath of the mass shooting in Sydney, Australia, in which a father and son opened fire on a crowd attending a Hanukkah celebration.
The pope prayed for the victims and the “gift of peace and fraternity” this holiday season as he spoke during an audience with the donors of the Vatican’s Christmas decorations.
“We pray for those who suffer from war and violence, in particular today I want to entrust to the Lord the victims of the terrorist attack in Sydney against the Jewish community,” the pontiff said on Monday.
“Enough of these forms of antisemitic violence!” he continued. “We must eliminate hatred from our hearts.”
AUSTRALIA TERROR ATTACK: 16 DEAD, INCLUDING GUNMAN, AFTER FATHER-SON DUO OPENS FIRE ON JEWISH COMMUNITY
Pope Leo XIV hugs a child at the end of an audience with donors of the Christmas tree and nativity scene set up in St. Peter’s Square, in the Paul VI Hall, at the Vatican, Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. (AP)
Leo made similar prayers in an official telegram of condolence sent to the archbishop of Sydney, Most. Rev. Anthony Fisher.
The pope prayed “with renewed hope that those tempted to violence will undergo conversion and seek the path of peace and solidarity,” according to the telegram signed by the Vatican secretary of state.
At least 15 victims were killed and dozens more were wounded in the massacre over the weekend on Sydney’s Bondi Beach, where hundreds had gathered for a “Chanukah by the Sea” event celebrating the beginning of the Jewish festival. One of the gunmen was shot and killed by police while the other was hospitalized with injuries.
A man identified as Ahmed al Ahmed has been praised as a hero for tackling and disarming one of the gunmen. He was shot but is recovering in a hospital.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese denounced the shooting as an act of antisemitic terrorism and vowed to strengthen the country’s already strict gun laws.
Pope Leo XIV shakes hands with Sister Raffaella Petrini, President of the Vatican City State at the end of an audience with donors of the Christmas tree and nativity scene set up at the Vatican, Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. (AP)
The attack was an “act of pure evil, an act of antisemitism, an act of terrorism,” Albanese said.
Leo also issued a strong anti-abortion message during the audience with the donors of the Vatican’s Christmas decorations, which he described as a sign of “faith and hope.”
The pope said the evergreen fir trees donated by various Italian regions “are a sign of life and recall the hope that isn’t lacking even in the winter cold.”
He said another sign of life was reflected in the Nativity scene in the Vatican’s audience hall, which was donated by Costa Rica. It featured 28,000 ribbons representing embryos that were not aborted.
GAL GADOT, ASHTON KUTCHER CONDEMN ANTISEMITIC TERROR ATTACK AT BONDI BEACH HANUKKAH EVENT
Ribbons representing lives saved from abortion according to Catholic groups are seen on Nacimiento Gaudium, a nativity scene set during an audience led by Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican, Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. (AP)
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“Each of these 28,000 colored ribbons that decorate the scene represent a life saved from abortion thanks to the prayer and support provided by Catholic organizations to many mothers in need,” the pontiff said.
Leo thanked the artist for the message affirming that “life is protected from conception.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
World
All eyes on Italy as Mercosur deal hangs in the balance
Italy’s silence on the Mercosur trade pact is deafening – and potentially decisive. Rome could become the kingmaker between supporters of the deal and countries seeking to block it.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to fly to Brazil on December 20 to sign off the agreement. France, facing farmer anger over fears of unfair competition from Latin America, opposes the deal and wants to postpone the EU member states vote scheduled this week to allow the signature.
The trade pact with Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay – aims to create a free-trade area for 700 million people across the Atlantic. Its adoption requires a qualified majority of EU member states. A blocking minority of four countries representing 35% of the EU population could derail ratification.
By the numbers, Italy’s stance is pivotal. France, Hungary, Poland and Austria oppose the deal. Ireland and the Netherlands, despite past opposition, have not officially declared their position. Belgium will abstain.
That leaves Italy in the spotlight. A diplomat told Euronews the country is feeling expose but that may not be a bad position to be in if it plays its cards rights to get concessions.
Coldiretti remains firmly opposed to the agreement
Rome’s agriculture minister had previously demanded guarantees for farmers.
Since then, the Commission has proposed a safeguard to monitor potential EU market disruptions from Mercosur imports. The measure, backed by member states, will be voted on Tuesday by EU lawmakers at plenary session in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Italy’s largest farmers’ association, Coldiretti, remains firmly opposed.
“It’s going to take too long to activate this safeguard clause if the EU market is hit by a surge of Mercosur’s imports,” a Coldiretti representative told Euronews.
On the other side, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a delicate balancing act between farmers and Confindustria, the industry lobby, while Italy remains the EU’s second-largest exporter to Mercosur countries.
This was also made clear by Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida a few days ago in Brussels. “Many industrial sectors and parts of the agricultural sector, such as the wine and cheese producers, would have a clear and tangible benefit [from the deal]. Others could be penalized,”he said.
This is why Italy has not taken a clear stance up to now. “Since 2024, we tried to protect everybody”, Lollobrigida argued, “while remaining ambiguous on the country’s position”.
Supporters of the deal are wooing Meloni, seeing her as the path to get the agreement done and open new markets amid global trade obstacles, including nationalist policies in the US and China.
“As long as the Commission president is preparing to go to Brazil to the Mercosur summit, we need to do what’s necessary for that to happen,” an EU senior diplomat from a pro-deal country said.
Yet uncertainty lingers. No one wants to schedule a vote that might fail, and Italy’s prolonged silence is rattling backers, sources told Euronews.
One diplomat familiar with the matter speaking to Euronews conceded “it’s hard, looks difficult”.
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