World
The far right will probably fall short in French legislative elections
By Pierre-Alexandre Balland, Chief Data Scientist, Centre for European Policy Studies
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.
This is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems, Pierre-Alexandre Balland writes.
Sunday’s European elections stunned Europe as far-right parties surged in France.
The National Rally is set to claim about 31% of votes, more than doubling President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party at 15%.
Macron immediately announced, “I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future through voting. Therefore, I dissolve the National Assembly tonight”, calling for rapid legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July.
This rare move, which last took place in 1997, is a bit like King Arthur’s testing the gods’ trust by reinserting Excalibur.
Will a far-right government lead one of the EU’s largest members by the Paris Olympics?
Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless, and desperate.
In truth, it’s a calculated risk with potentially higher rewards than inaction. Most likely, the far right will not win the French legislative elections.
What happens if Macron’s strategy succeeds?
It would counter the prevailing narrative that the far right is taking over France. Today’s headlines suggest this trend and it’s crucial to address it early.
By returning to the voters, Macron aims to show that the European election results don’t mirror the wider political sentiment in France.
This move could also mobilise those worried about the far right’s rise, serving as a call to action. With Macron’s pro-European stance, this could significantly curb the far right’s momentum both in the EU and globally.
The National Rally — known as the National Front until 2018 — already secured first place in the European Parliament elections in 2019 and before that in 2014. But historically, the far right struggles to mirror its EU success in French national elections.
Let’s look at the popular vote. In the 2019 European elections, the National Rally received a total of 5,286,939 votes. However, three years later, during the French legislative elections, it only received 3,589,269 votes.
There is a 32.1% cut when you move from the EU to the national level. Using the same rate, the 7,765,944 votes of 9 June would shrink to 5,272,250.
In 2022, the winner (Ensemble) gathered 8,002,419 votes, and in 2017, LREM won with 7,826,245 votes. Macron is betting that the National Rally will not find an additional 2.5 million voters in less than a month.
Much more complex (and accurate) modelling strategies exist, but the main point is that replicating this win at the French level is unlikely and would represent a seismic political shift.
It’s not one round in the ring — it’s two
The drop from EU to French election results comes from different voting systems. France’s two-round electoral system for legislative elections is a significant barrier to far-right parties.
While these parties may perform well in the first round when traditional parties are divided, the second round sees a shift. Here, voters from both left and right often unite behind more moderate candidates to prevent a far-right victory, a strategy known as the “Republican Front”.
Despite making gains, the far right struggles to build the broad coalition necessary to win in the final round.
And in French parliamentary elections, results are decided locally across 577 constituencies, favouring parties with broad, evenly spread support. The National Rally may dominate specific regions but fail to achieve the widespread vote distribution necessary to win multiple seats.
Larger parties not only have more uniform support but also more resources to get strong, locally recognized candidates across all constituencies, enhancing their chances of securing a majority. The National Rally will struggle to find competitive candidates across all constituencies quickly.
And there are peculiar reasons why French voters might lean far-right in EU elections but opt for moderation nationally. Economic issues, where Macron’s party shows strength, dominate national elections and sway undecided voters.
Additionally, the perceived low impact of the European Parliament on daily life makes EU elections a safe venue for protest votes with minimal consequences. This is true in France and in Europe more generally — but Bardella’s notable absence in Strasbourg amplifies this low-risk perception.
However, the path to becoming prime minister and governing is much steeper. Macron appears to be counting on catching the National Rally off-guard and highlighting their program’s inconsistencies.
What happens if the National Rally wins?
One cannot downplay the growing influence of the far right in French politics and Europe in general.
These parties have capitalized on a wave of discontent among voters who are dissatisfied with the current government’s policies on economic development, immigration, and security.
So what if, against what I believe to be all odds, the National Rally wins and gets to govern? Then Bardella and Le Pen will be in the driver’s seat. It is much harder than being in the opposition.
If it governs badly, it will suffer a huge setback during the 2027 elections. And if it governs effectively and resolves every economic, social, and environmental issue, then we’ll all live happily ever after. So even in this less likely scenario, Macron’s strategy might be a winning one.
I don’t have a crystal ball, and this is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems.
Pierre-Alexandre Balland is Chief Data Scientist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.
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World
Christmas trees in Germany were decorated with apples instead of ornaments in the 1600s for 'Adam and Eve Day'
The choosing and decorating of a Christmas tree to display during the holiday season is a beloved tradition with a long history.
Today, Christmas trees are often decorated with an array of ornaments, including glass ones, homemade creations, candy canes, tinsel and sparkling lights, but that was not always the case. There was a time in history when Christmas trees were adorned with edible items, including apples, to commemorate the feast of Adam and Eve on Dec. 24.
Germany is credited with starting the tradition of the Christmas tree, according to History.com, with 16th century records telling of Christians bringing trees into their homes for the holiday.
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The Christmas tree has evolved over time, especially in the way in which it is decorated.
In the 1600s, it was typical for a Christmas tree to be decorated using apples, according to the National Christmas Tree Association.
The feast of Adam and Eve, held on Dec. 24, was honored by a “Paradise Play,” which told the story of Adam and Eve.
The play featured a “Paradise Tree,” according to the website, The Catholic Company, which was decorated with apples.
HOW TO SAY ‘MERRY CHRISTMAS’ IN 10 LANGUAGES TO FRIENDS AROUND THE WORLD
It was popular in Germany to set up “Paradise Trees” in homes, according to several sources, including Britannica and CatholicProfiles.org.
Then, in the 1700s, evergreen tips were hung from the ceilings of homes, also decorated with apples as well as gilded nuts and red paper strips, according to the National Christmas Tree Association.
It was not until the 1800s that the Christmas tree made its way to the United States by German settlers, according to the source.
At this time, Christmas trees were not the large displays they are now, and they simply sat atop a table, per the National Christmas Tree Association.
Then, in the mid-1800s, trees began to sell commercially in the U.S. By the late 1800s, glass ornaments became a common decoration for the Christmas tree, according to the National Christmas Tree Association.
Today, every family has their own traditions and preferences when it comes to decorating the Christmas tree.
Some go with a very complimentary design, sticking to a single or couple of colors. Others opt for a mix-matched arrangement, combining homemade ornaments with more classic ones, as well as colorful lights, ribbon and more.
World
Photos: Armenian Christians in Jerusalem’s Old City feel walls closing in
As Israel’s war on Gaza rages and Israeli attacks on people in the occupied West Bank continue, Armenian residents of the Old City of Jerusalem are fighting a different battle – quieter, they say, but no less existential.
One of the oldest communities in Jerusalem, the Armenians have lived in the Old City for more than 1,500 years, centred around the Armenian convent.
Now, the small Christian community has begun to fracture under pressure from forces they say threaten them and the multifaith character of the Old City – from Jewish settlers who jeer at clergymen on their way to prayer to a land deal threatening to turn a quarter of their land into a luxury hotel.
Chasms have emerged between the Armenian Patriarchate and the mainly secular community, whose members worry the church is not equipped to protect their dwindling population and embattled convent.
In the Armenian Quarter is Save the Arq’s headquarters, a structure with reinforced plywood walls hung with ancient maps inhabited by Armenians who are there to protest what they see as an illegal land grab by a real estate developer.
The land under threat is where the community holds events and also includes parts of the patriarchate itself.
After years of the patriarchate refusing to sell any of its land, Armenian priest Baret Yeretsian secretly “leased” the lot in 2021 for up to 98 years to Xana Capital, a company registered just before the agreement was signed.
Xana turned more than half the shares to a local businessman, George Warwar, who has been involved in various criminal offences.
Community members were outraged.
The priest fled the country and the patriarchate cancelled the deal in October, but Xana objected and the contract is now in mediation.
Xana has sent armed men to the lot, the activists say, attacking people, including clergy, with pepper spray and batons.
The activists say Warwar has the backing of a prominent settler organisation seeking to expand the Jewish presence in Jerusalem’s Old City.
The organisation, Ateret Cohanim, is behind several controversial land acquisitions in the Old City, and its leaders were photographed with Warwar and Xana Capital owner Danny Rothman, also known as Danny Rubinstein, in December 2023. Ateret Cohanim denied any connection to the land deal.
Activists filed suit against the patriarchate in February, seeking to have the deal declared void and the land to belong to the community in perpetuity.
The patriarchate refused, saying it owns the land.
Armenians began arriving in the Old City as early as the fourth century with a large wave arriving in the early 20th century, fleeing the Ottoman Empire. They have the same status as Palestinians in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem – residents but not citizens, effectively stateless.
Today, the newcomers are mainly boys who arrive from Armenia to live and study in the convent although many drop out. Clergy say that’s partially because attacks against Christians have increased, leaving the Armenians – whose convent is closest to the Jewish Quarter and is along a popular route to the Western Wall – vulnerable.
Father Aghan Gogchyan, the patriarchate’s chancellor, said he’s regularly attacked by groups of Jewish nationalists.
The Rossing Center, which tracks anti-Christian attacks in the Holy Land, documented about 20 attacks on Armenian people and property and church properties in 2023, many involving ultranationalist Jewish settlers spitting at Armenian clergy or graffiti reading “Death to Christians” scrawled on the quarter’s walls.
World
As wars rage around them, Armenian Christians in Jerusalem's Old City feel the walls closing in
JERUSALEM (AP) — As the war in Gaza rages, Syria’s government transforms, and the Israeli-occupied West Bank seethes, Armenian residents of the Old City of Jerusalem fight a different battle — one that is quieter, they say, but no less existential.
One of the oldest communities in Jerusalem, the Armenians have lived in the Old City for decades without significant friction with their neighbors, centered around a convent that acts as a welfare state.
Now, the small Christian community has begun to fracture under pressure from forces they say threaten them and the multifaith character of the Old City. From radical Jewish settlers who jeer at clergymen on the way to prayer, to a land deal threatening to turn a quarter of their land into a luxury hotel, residents and the church alike say the future of the community is in flux.
Their struggle, playing out under the cover of many regional crises, reflects the difficulty of maintaining a non-Jewish presence in a Jerusalem where life has hardened for religious minorities in the Old City. Chasms have emerged between the Armenian Patriarchate, the traditional steward of community affairs, and the mainly secular community itself. Its members worry that the church is not equipped to protect their dwindling population and embattled convent from obsolescence and takeover.
A tent in a parking lot
Walk through the narrow passageways of the Armenian Quarter, past a perpetually manned guard post and into an open lot with a towering pile of shrapnel crested with the Armenian flag. You’ve arrived at the headquarters of the “Save the Arq” movement.
It’s where some residents of the Armenian Quarter have decamped, in a structure with reinforced plywood walls hung with ancient maps, to protest what they see as an illegal land grab by a controversial real estate developer.
The land under threat is where the community parks their cars and holds group dinners. It also includes parts of the patriarchate itself. It’s been a receiving point for those fleeing the mass killing of some 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks, widely viewed by scholars as the first genocide of the 20th century. Turkey denies the deaths constituted genocide.
The patriarchate has batted away offer after offer to sell the land. That changed in 2021, when an Armenian priest, Baret Yeretsian, signed a fraudulent deal leasing the lot for up to 98 years to a company called Xana Capital, registered just before the agreement was signed.
Xana then turned over half the shares to a local businessman, George Warwar, who has been involved in various criminal offenses, according to court filings, including a 24-month prison sentence for armed robbery, and has declared bankruptcy in the past.
In court documents seen by the AP, the patriarchate has admitted that Warwar bribed the priest and that the two had sustained “various inappropriate connections” leading up to the signing of the deal.
Community members were outraged when they found out, prompting the priest to flee the country. The patriarchate cancelled the deal in October, but Xana fought back, and the two are now in mediation over the contract. Xana Capital has since sent armed men to the lot, the activists say, attacking members of the community, including clergy, with pepper spray and batons.
With the future of the site unclear, the activists say they appealed to the patriarchate to find out what was going on. The activists say that Warwar has the backing of a prominent settler organization seeking to expand Jewish presence in Jerusalem’s Old City. The organization, Ateret Cohanim, is behind several controversial land acquisitions in the Old City, and its leaders were photographed meeting with Warwar and Danny Rothman, the owner of Xana Capital who also uses the last name Rubinstein, in December 2023. The organization denied any connection to the land deal.
“But as soon as the deal was signed, the patriarchate went into silent mode, bunker mode,” said Setrag Balian, 27, a ceramicist. “We decided that we have to take action and not once again be on the sidelines, watching and hoping that the patriarchy will take the right steps.”
So Balian and fellow resident Hagop Djernazian collected some 300 signatures from the community and filed suit against the patriarchate in February, asking them to declare the deal void and to say, for posterity, that the land belongs to the community.
In response, the patriarchate said it owns the land, not the community. Xana, meanwhile, filed a response calling the activists antisemitic squatters. The patriarchate’s response and Xana’s words, the activists said, leave open the chance that the land could be leased again in the future.
“It made us feel like we could not trust the institution who brought us to this day to solve this problem, to solve this conflict,” said Hagop Djernazian.
The patriarchate declined to comment on the land deal for this article, saying it could impact mediation efforts underway with Xana.
A single observer
Inside the Armenian convent, the clergy are hushed, pathways empty.
On a recent afternoon, priests in black robes rang the bell for daily prayers at the St. James Cathedral, the storied Armenian church occupying one of the highest points in the Old City. Filing into the darkened space, the men and the young seminary choir were joined only by an Israeli tour group and one Armenian woman who’d come to pray.
Father Parsegh Galamterian, church sacristan, has watched prayers thin out over the years, as the Armenian population in the quarter has shrunk from about 15,000 in 1948, the founding of the state of Israel, to around 2,000.
“The future is difficult,” he says.
Armenians began arriving in the Old City as early as the 4th century, inspired by the religious significance of the city to Christianity. In the early 20th century, they were joined by masses of Armenians who flocked to Jerusalem after being driven out of the Ottoman Empire. Theirs is the smallest quarter in the Old City, home to Armenians with the same status as Palestinians in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem — residents but not citizens, effectively stateless.
Today, the newcomers are mainly boys who arrive from Armenia to live and study in the convent. Some stay, but many drop out of studies. Clergy say that’s partially because attacks against Christians have ramped up within the walls of the Old City, leaving the Armenians – whose convent is closest to the Jewish Quarter and is tucked along a popular route to the Western Wall – vulnerable.
Father Aghan Gogchyan, the patriarchate’s chancellor, said he’s regularly attacked by groups of Jewish fundamentalists.
He recalled one instance, a month ago, when clergy were headed to prayer. He was intercepted by a group of settlers, who asked if they were Christians.
“’You know that you don’t have a future here in the Holy Land. You’re not going to continue to live here,” he recalled one man saying. “’This is our country. We are going to eradicate you.”
“This is the word he used,” said Gogchyan. “We are going to eradicate you from our country.”
The Rossing Center, which tracks anti-Christian attacks in the Holy Land, documented about 20 attacks on Armenian observers, Armenian private property, and church properties in 2023, many involving ultranationalist Jewish settlers spitting at Armenian clergy or graffiti reading “Death to Christians” scrawled on the quarter’s walls.
“What is being said behind closed doors is that Jerusalem is becoming a place that is no longer hospitable to Christianity,” said Daniel Seidman, a Jerusalem lawyer and peace activist. “You can see the needle moving. The spike in hate crimes is not part of this plan, but it’s part of the impact.”
The incidents send a clear message to the next generation, said Gogchyan: stay away.
“The new generation doesn’t want to be in the center of the conflict,” said Gogchyan. “They’re building their future in different countries.
Despite the fractures, Armenian clergy and activists told the AP they want the same thing: a continued presence in the Old City.
“Some people feel helpless and hopeless and they want to leave,” said Balian. “But I think the majority sees that there is a struggle going on. It gives us a meaning. It gives us a purpose. It gives us a reason to stay here.”
___
Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
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