World
The far right will probably fall short in French legislative elections
By Pierre-Alexandre Balland, Chief Data Scientist, Centre for European Policy Studies
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.
This is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems, Pierre-Alexandre Balland writes.
Sunday’s European elections stunned Europe as far-right parties surged in France.
The National Rally is set to claim about 31% of votes, more than doubling President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party at 15%.
Macron immediately announced, “I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future through voting. Therefore, I dissolve the National Assembly tonight”, calling for rapid legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July.
This rare move, which last took place in 1997, is a bit like King Arthur’s testing the gods’ trust by reinserting Excalibur.
Will a far-right government lead one of the EU’s largest members by the Paris Olympics?
Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless, and desperate.
In truth, it’s a calculated risk with potentially higher rewards than inaction. Most likely, the far right will not win the French legislative elections.
What happens if Macron’s strategy succeeds?
It would counter the prevailing narrative that the far right is taking over France. Today’s headlines suggest this trend and it’s crucial to address it early.
By returning to the voters, Macron aims to show that the European election results don’t mirror the wider political sentiment in France.
This move could also mobilise those worried about the far right’s rise, serving as a call to action. With Macron’s pro-European stance, this could significantly curb the far right’s momentum both in the EU and globally.
The National Rally — known as the National Front until 2018 — already secured first place in the European Parliament elections in 2019 and before that in 2014. But historically, the far right struggles to mirror its EU success in French national elections.
Let’s look at the popular vote. In the 2019 European elections, the National Rally received a total of 5,286,939 votes. However, three years later, during the French legislative elections, it only received 3,589,269 votes.
There is a 32.1% cut when you move from the EU to the national level. Using the same rate, the 7,765,944 votes of 9 June would shrink to 5,272,250.
In 2022, the winner (Ensemble) gathered 8,002,419 votes, and in 2017, LREM won with 7,826,245 votes. Macron is betting that the National Rally will not find an additional 2.5 million voters in less than a month.
Much more complex (and accurate) modelling strategies exist, but the main point is that replicating this win at the French level is unlikely and would represent a seismic political shift.
It’s not one round in the ring — it’s two
The drop from EU to French election results comes from different voting systems. France’s two-round electoral system for legislative elections is a significant barrier to far-right parties.
While these parties may perform well in the first round when traditional parties are divided, the second round sees a shift. Here, voters from both left and right often unite behind more moderate candidates to prevent a far-right victory, a strategy known as the “Republican Front”.
Despite making gains, the far right struggles to build the broad coalition necessary to win in the final round.
And in French parliamentary elections, results are decided locally across 577 constituencies, favouring parties with broad, evenly spread support. The National Rally may dominate specific regions but fail to achieve the widespread vote distribution necessary to win multiple seats.
Larger parties not only have more uniform support but also more resources to get strong, locally recognized candidates across all constituencies, enhancing their chances of securing a majority. The National Rally will struggle to find competitive candidates across all constituencies quickly.
And there are peculiar reasons why French voters might lean far-right in EU elections but opt for moderation nationally. Economic issues, where Macron’s party shows strength, dominate national elections and sway undecided voters.
Additionally, the perceived low impact of the European Parliament on daily life makes EU elections a safe venue for protest votes with minimal consequences. This is true in France and in Europe more generally — but Bardella’s notable absence in Strasbourg amplifies this low-risk perception.
However, the path to becoming prime minister and governing is much steeper. Macron appears to be counting on catching the National Rally off-guard and highlighting their program’s inconsistencies.
What happens if the National Rally wins?
One cannot downplay the growing influence of the far right in French politics and Europe in general.
These parties have capitalized on a wave of discontent among voters who are dissatisfied with the current government’s policies on economic development, immigration, and security.
So what if, against what I believe to be all odds, the National Rally wins and gets to govern? Then Bardella and Le Pen will be in the driver’s seat. It is much harder than being in the opposition.
If it governs badly, it will suffer a huge setback during the 2027 elections. And if it governs effectively and resolves every economic, social, and environmental issue, then we’ll all live happily ever after. So even in this less likely scenario, Macron’s strategy might be a winning one.
I don’t have a crystal ball, and this is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems.
Pierre-Alexandre Balland is Chief Data Scientist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.
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World
Tyson-Paul bout gives Netflix opportunity to show it can handle big events with NFL, WWE on horizon
Jake Paul and Mike Tyson aren’t the only ones who have high stakes when they meet in the boxing ring on Friday night.
For Netflix, it is their biggest live sports event to date, and an opportunity to make sure it can handle audience demand with the NFL and WWE on the horizon.
The bout between the YouTuber-turned-boxer Paul, and Tyson, 58-year-old former heavyweight champion, from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, will stream globally and be available to Netflix’s 280 million subscribers at no additional cost.
Netflix will broadcast the bout in English, Spanish, Brazilian Portuguese, French and German. It was originally scheduled for July 20, but was delayed by Tyson having a medical episode on a plane and needing time to recover from a stomach ulcer.
Netflix declined multiple requests by The Associated Press to make a company executive available to discuss expectations about the fight.
JP Morgan Chase analyst Doug Anmuth has not wavered in his prediction that it will be the most-watched fight ever. That might be an unrealistic bar to climb since four of Muhammad Ali’s bouts had estimated worldwide audiences of one billion.
The modern-day U.S. mark of 4.6 million from the 2015 bout between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao could be attainable though.
“We believe the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight could be the most watched boxing match ever given ease of access and NFLX’s (Netflix’s) large global subscriber base, and it should attract Ad Tier subs, viewers, and dollars,” Anmuth said in his analyst note according to CNBC Pro. “Netflix is increasingly focused on sports entertainment, events, and shoulder content, and we expect a bigger push into live sports over time, particularly as negotiating leverage shifts in NFLX’s direction.”
Netflix has used live sports as support programming for documentaries and series it airs. “Countdown: Paul vs. Tyson”, a three-part documentary series previewing the fight card, was ranked second Thursday night among Netflix’s most-viewed shows.
Last November’s Netflix Cup, where Formula 1 drivers were paired with PGA golfers in a match-play format, brought together famous figures from “Drive to Survive” and “Full Swing,” The March 3 Netflix Slam exhibition match between Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz tied in with “Point Break” and a documentary series about Alcaraz that will air next year.
The NFL elected to partner with Netflix for a Christmas Day doubleheader of games because two series — “Quarterback” and “Receiver” — were among Netflix’s top 10 series globally.
Most Valuable Promotions is handling the production of Friday’s bout while CBS will produce the two NFL games for Netflix. When “Raw” begins airing on Netflix on Jan. 5, World Wrestling Entertainment handles the production of all its events.
Netflix will carry “Raw” in the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom and Latin America beginning in January, with additional countries to be added as contracts expire. The bigger component, though, is that Netflix becomes the carrier of all WWE shows and specials outside the U.S. and the company’s premium live events, including WrestleMania and SummerSlam.
“Technically, it is a great dry run by putting on live events. The biggest problem they might have is you just end up in a situation where you’ve got so much volume and viewing a way that you haven’t had in the past,” said Patrick Crakes, a media consultant and former Fox Sports executive. “It could end up being more than who watches the NFL games for a period of time. Others are handling the production, what they have to worry about is the operational flow. They know what they are doing.”
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AP sports: https://apnews.com/sports
World
Could Biden copy Obama with December surprise at UN to punish Israel's Netanyahu?
JERUSALEM — After 10 non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proposed a binding resolution that would impose an end to Israel’s war to root out Hamas terrorists in Gaza, there is growing concern that the Biden administration could embrace the measure to send a strong parting message to the Netanyahu government.
Relations between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been tense since Israel launched its self-defense war against the U.S.-designated terrorist movement on Oct. 7, 2023.
U.N. experts are speculating that Biden might seek payback against Netanyahu at the U.N., just as President Obama did in 2016 when they let an anti-Israel resolution pass weeks before President-elect Donald Trump was to take office.
UN, ISRAEL AT ODDS OVER CAUSE OF DECLINE IN AID DELIVERIES: ‘FALSE NARRATIVES BY INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY’
“Without a doubt, this is a calculated effort to Trump-proof the failed Biden agenda. Once a Security Council resolution is adopted, the Russians and the Chinese would veto any attempt to revoke it. Americans of all political stripes need to remind President Biden’s lame-duck administration that they didn’t come out to vote only to hand over control to the Russians, the Chinese and the United Nations,” Anne Bayefsky, president of Human Rights Voices, told Fox News Digital.
The proposed Security Council draft resolution fails to secure the release of more than 100 hostages being held by the terrorist organization, including Americans. The anti-Israel measure recalls President Obama’s punitive council action against Israel in the lame duck phase of his administration.
A version of the draft was leaked to Al Jazeera, which the Israel Defense Forces has accused of employing Hamas terrorists as reporters.
Israel’s ambassador to the world body, Danny Danon, told Fox News Digital, “It’s shameful that this proposed resolution fails to link the call for a cease-fire with the release of all 101 remaining hostages still held in brutal captivity by Hamas in Gaza. It is a one-sided resolution and shouldn’t pass.”
Russia’s mission to the U.N. on Wednesday wrote on X that it “expresses its full support for the draft resolution on Gaza introduced by ‘the ten’ non-permanent members of the UNSC, which contains a direct demand for an immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire and the release of all hostages. We also call for this draft to be put to a vote without further delay.”
Russia, along with the U.S., China, France and Britain are the five permanent members of the body.
US, ISRAEL AT ODDS OVER DECLINE IN AID DELIVERIES
Israel accused former President Obama of permitting passage of a council resolution in 2016 that censured Israel for the building of Israeli residences in Judea and Samaria, known more widely as the West Bank. There are growing fears among supporters of the Jewish state that the White House will use its lame-duck period to punish Israel again.
Danon told a group of journalists on Thursday, “While I don’t think the U.S. would let the resolution pass, there might be other attempts to alienate and delegitimize Israel during the transition period, like we saw in 2016.”
However, when asked at a press briefing last week if the Biden administration plans to replicate President Obama’s enabling in 2016 of what was deemed as an anti-Israel resolution by the Jewish state and many Trump officials shortly before Obama left office, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, “So you should not read this – into this answer I’m about to give anything. You shouldn’t read in one way or the other. I cannot speculate on how we will vote on resolutions that are not yet even before the Security Council. Obviously, we will look at any resolution that comes up before the Security Council and make … our judgments based on the interests of the United States, as we always do.”
BIDEN ADMIN ISSUES WARNING TO NETANYAHU AS ISRAEL HOLDS EMERGENCY MEETING ON GAZA AID
Fox News Digital sent a press a query to the State Department about the newly proposed draft resolution.
Bayefsky added, “Strip away the facade of faux peace, and you find a United Nations and an embittered Biden administration making big plans to do permanent harm to the state of Israel. President Obama produced the template for an end run around a Trump presidency in 2016: enable the U.N. to do the dirty work during the lame-duck term. The endgame is simple: Thwart Congress and the election results by bending American sovereignty to the will of the United Nations.”
“To be very clear, a U.N. Security Council resolution that demands right now an unconditional and permanent cease-fire before the release of every single hostage, before the end of Hamas rocket fire, with Hamas still armed and hell-bent on genocide, is not pro-peace,” Bayefsky continued. “It’s a guarantee of more war. There has never been a cease-fire that Hamas hasn’t broken. So the truth is that the U.N.’s idea of a cease-fire is actually directed at a party of one: Israel. Israel ceases and Hamas fires. A democratic United States needs to shut down these negotiations, period.”
The 10 non-permanent members of the council are Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland.
“The Security Council Trump-proof plan involves setting up a continual barrage of U.N. reports and endless meetings on Israel’s ‘compliance’ with the resolution,” Bayefsky said. “… make no mistake: A Trump-proof production line of secretary-general reports ensures that the U.N. will be constantly throwing gasoline on any American attempt to put out the fire. U.N. reports, meetings and press conferences are not mere hot air. They fan the flames of hate and antisemitism until they blow up not only in Israel and Europe but right here on the streets and campuses of the USA.”
World
Fire in Spanish nursing home kills at least 10 people
Two other people are in critical condition after a blaze broke out in the residence in Spain’s Zaragoza region.
At least ten people have died and two are in critical condition after a fire broke out at a nursing home in Spain’s northeastern Zaragoza region on Friday.
The blaze broke out on Friday morning in the Jardines de Villafranca residence in the town of Villafranca de Ebro, which is located about 20 minutes from the city of Zaragoza.
There were 82 people inside the nursing home at the time of the fire, including residents, nurses and support staff, the local government said. The total number of injured or hurt is unknown, but two people have been hospitalised and are in critical condition.
Firefighters were able to extinguish the blaze on Friday morning and the cause of the fire is now under investigation, according to the authorities. Health workers, civil protection volunteers, police, psychologists, social workers are all on the scene to provide support.
Fernando Beltrán, government delegate for the surrounding Aragón region, said the fire started in one of the rooms of the residence, and that the deaths were likely due to smoke inhalation.
“It’s a devastating outcome,” he told reporters on Friday morning.
Writing on X, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said he was “shocked by the tragedy”.
“I hope that the people in serious condition recover as soon as possible,” he wrote.
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