World
The far right will probably fall short in French legislative elections
By Pierre-Alexandre Balland, Chief Data Scientist, Centre for European Policy Studies
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.
This is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems, Pierre-Alexandre Balland writes.
Sunday’s European elections stunned Europe as far-right parties surged in France.
The National Rally is set to claim about 31% of votes, more than doubling President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party at 15%.
Macron immediately announced, “I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future through voting. Therefore, I dissolve the National Assembly tonight”, calling for rapid legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July.
This rare move, which last took place in 1997, is a bit like King Arthur’s testing the gods’ trust by reinserting Excalibur.
Will a far-right government lead one of the EU’s largest members by the Paris Olympics?
Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless, and desperate.
In truth, it’s a calculated risk with potentially higher rewards than inaction. Most likely, the far right will not win the French legislative elections.
What happens if Macron’s strategy succeeds?
It would counter the prevailing narrative that the far right is taking over France. Today’s headlines suggest this trend and it’s crucial to address it early.
By returning to the voters, Macron aims to show that the European election results don’t mirror the wider political sentiment in France.
This move could also mobilise those worried about the far right’s rise, serving as a call to action. With Macron’s pro-European stance, this could significantly curb the far right’s momentum both in the EU and globally.
The National Rally — known as the National Front until 2018 — already secured first place in the European Parliament elections in 2019 and before that in 2014. But historically, the far right struggles to mirror its EU success in French national elections.
Let’s look at the popular vote. In the 2019 European elections, the National Rally received a total of 5,286,939 votes. However, three years later, during the French legislative elections, it only received 3,589,269 votes.
There is a 32.1% cut when you move from the EU to the national level. Using the same rate, the 7,765,944 votes of 9 June would shrink to 5,272,250.
In 2022, the winner (Ensemble) gathered 8,002,419 votes, and in 2017, LREM won with 7,826,245 votes. Macron is betting that the National Rally will not find an additional 2.5 million voters in less than a month.
Much more complex (and accurate) modelling strategies exist, but the main point is that replicating this win at the French level is unlikely and would represent a seismic political shift.
It’s not one round in the ring — it’s two
The drop from EU to French election results comes from different voting systems. France’s two-round electoral system for legislative elections is a significant barrier to far-right parties.
While these parties may perform well in the first round when traditional parties are divided, the second round sees a shift. Here, voters from both left and right often unite behind more moderate candidates to prevent a far-right victory, a strategy known as the “Republican Front”.
Despite making gains, the far right struggles to build the broad coalition necessary to win in the final round.
And in French parliamentary elections, results are decided locally across 577 constituencies, favouring parties with broad, evenly spread support. The National Rally may dominate specific regions but fail to achieve the widespread vote distribution necessary to win multiple seats.
Larger parties not only have more uniform support but also more resources to get strong, locally recognized candidates across all constituencies, enhancing their chances of securing a majority. The National Rally will struggle to find competitive candidates across all constituencies quickly.
And there are peculiar reasons why French voters might lean far-right in EU elections but opt for moderation nationally. Economic issues, where Macron’s party shows strength, dominate national elections and sway undecided voters.
Additionally, the perceived low impact of the European Parliament on daily life makes EU elections a safe venue for protest votes with minimal consequences. This is true in France and in Europe more generally — but Bardella’s notable absence in Strasbourg amplifies this low-risk perception.
However, the path to becoming prime minister and governing is much steeper. Macron appears to be counting on catching the National Rally off-guard and highlighting their program’s inconsistencies.
What happens if the National Rally wins?
One cannot downplay the growing influence of the far right in French politics and Europe in general.
These parties have capitalized on a wave of discontent among voters who are dissatisfied with the current government’s policies on economic development, immigration, and security.
So what if, against what I believe to be all odds, the National Rally wins and gets to govern? Then Bardella and Le Pen will be in the driver’s seat. It is much harder than being in the opposition.
If it governs badly, it will suffer a huge setback during the 2027 elections. And if it governs effectively and resolves every economic, social, and environmental issue, then we’ll all live happily ever after. So even in this less likely scenario, Macron’s strategy might be a winning one.
I don’t have a crystal ball, and this is one heck of a chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it will make history. But it is a much more calculated move than it seems.
Pierre-Alexandre Balland is Chief Data Scientist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.
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World
Australian authorities: Bondi Beach shooting was ‘terrorism … designed to target Sydney’s Jewish community’
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A mass shooting during a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, on Sunday evening left at least 12 people dead and 29 people hospitalized, authorities say.
The annual celebration, known as “Chanukah By The Sea,” was scheduled to kick off at 5 p.m. to celebrate the first day of the Jewish holiday by lighting the first candle on the Menorah. Police say the attack “targeted” the Jewish community and is being investigated as an act of terrorism.
The New South Wales Police Force (NSWPF) said officers responded to reports of shots fired at about 6:45 p.m. on Sunday. Police say there were at least two gunmen involved in the attack, and they are investigating the possibility of a third. Twelve people were killed in the shooting, including one of the two suspected gunmen, police said. The second alleged shooter is in critical condition.
At least 29 others were hospitalized after the shooting, including two police officers, the agency confirmed. The shooting is the worst attack against Jews since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attacks.
ANTISEMITIC ATTACKERS VIOLENTLY TARGET SYNAGOGUE, ISRAELI RESTAURANT IN AUSTRALIA
An investigation is underway after a deadly attack on a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, on Sunday. (David Gray/AFP via Getty Images)
Police added that they found evidence of multiple improvised explosive devices in a vehicle near the scene of the attack.
“We have our rescue bomb disposal unit there at the moment working on that,” he said.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog acknowledged the attack while speaking at an event in Jerusalem recognizing immigrants’ extraordinary achievements on Sunday.
“At these very moments, our sisters and brothers in Sydney, Australia, have been attacked by vile terrorists in a very cruel attack on Jews who went to light the first candle of Chanukah on Bondi Beach,” Herzog said. “Our hearts go out to them. The heart of the entire nation of Israel misses a beat at this very moment, as we pray for the recovery of the wounded, we pray for them and we pray for those who lost their lives.”
AUSTRALIA’S JEWISH COMMUNITY ALARMED BY RISING ANTISEMITISM: ‘FEAR AND ANXIETY’
A health worker moves a stretcher after a shooting incident at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, on Dec. 14, 2025. (Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images)
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Herzog also called on the Australian government to “seek action and fight against the enormous wave of antisemitism which is plaguing Australian society.”
World
In Khartoum, exhumation of makeshift graves reawakens families’ grief
Khartoum, Sudan – Iman Abdel-Azim had to bury her brother in the courtyard of her home in Khartoum North when he died as fighting between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces raged around them.
Her brother died of cholera in September last year, unable to access medical care.
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Her neighbours had to help her bury him because it was impossible to access cemeteries during the fighting. She was not the only resident of the capital region’s three cities – Khartoum, Khartoum North and Omdurman – who had to do this.
After Khartoum State announced at the beginning of December a major effort to exhume the remains of people buried in this makeshift manner and move them to cemeteries, Abdel-Azim feels her grief has been renewed as she relives the pain of losing a loved one.
Organised campaign
State and local committees were formed to implement the exhumations. They are made up of representatives from forensic medicine, Civil Defence, the Sudanese Red Crescent, and neighbourhood management and services committees.
Ahmed Abdel Rahman, executive director of Khartoum North, told Al Jazeera that the campaign aims to alleviate the psychological burden on families and improve the health and humanitarian situation in the capital region.
According to Abdel Rahman, the campaign is being overseen by the High Committee for Collecting the Remains of Those Who Died During the Battle of Dignity.
The process will unfold in stages, the first of which is identifying makeshift burial sites.
After that, families are notified and allowed to nominate a representative to be involved in every step, from exhumation to burial.
Forensic medicine specialists will supervise the exhumations and reburials in cemeteries with full documentation of the remains.
The process of transferring these remains began as early as when the Sudanese army took control of Khartoum State, Hisham Zain al-Abidin, director of the Forensic Medicine Authority in Khartoum State, explained to Al Jazeera.
He affirmed that by the first quarter of 2026, Khartoum and its seven districts would be free of any makeshift graves.
However, he added, the field teams responsible for the exhumations and reburials are facing a number of challenges, including a shortage of body bags, “which could affect the work being carried out as required”.
Sabotage
According to Zain al-Abidin, the Rapid Support Forces sabotaged the DNA units used to preserve samples from several buried bodies, which has made it difficult to identify many victims.
He said teams are numbering and documenting the burials of unidentified bodies, then burying them in graves specifically for unidentified individuals.
He called on stakeholders, organisations and citizens for help in preparing the graves and stressed that the work ahead is extensive and requires concerted efforts between the government and citizens.
For her part, Shireen Al-Tayeb Nour Al-Daem, vice president of the Steering and Services Committee in the Shambat neighbourhood of North Khartoum, told Al Jazeera that the committee had surveyed graves in homes, mosques and public squares in several neighbourhoods as a preliminary step before the arrival of medical teams and the commencement of exhumations and transfers of bodies.
Nour Al-Daem said the committee informs victims’ families to attend and follow up on the official procedures with the legal and medical teams until the transfers and burials are completed.
The committee is working on identifying and surveying the locations of makeshift graves, collecting data and communicating with families, Nour Al-Daem said, urging citizens to report the locations of makeshift graves so field teams can access them.
When teams arrive to undertake the exhumations and reburials, the committee will also undertake the logistics and support for those teams. This includes coordinating between the field teams and the families of the deceased to ensure the presence of the family or a representative.
If no relatives of the deceased are present, she added, the High Committee has instructed that the exhumation be halted.
She indicated that the country needs further efforts to complete reconstruction and rebuilding and what the committees are doing “paves the way for a safe environment for the return of citizens” despite the difficulty of people experiencing a second farewell to their loved ones.
The streets of Khartoum are also filled with bodies that have not yet been buried, some of which have decomposed, representing a challenge to identify them and dangers to public health.
World
Horvath to Heidenreich on 4th-and-goal leads No. 22 Navy to a 17-16 win over Army
BALTIMORE (AP) — Blake Horvath to Eli Heidenreich.
That’s the connection that led Navy to such a memorable season — and the two of them came through again on the biggest play of the biggest game.
Horvath threw an 8-yard touchdown pass to Heidenreich with 6:32 remaining — on fourth-and-goal — and No. 22 Navy rallied to beat Army 17-16 on Saturday. Heidenreich, the career and single-season leader in yards receiving for the Midshipmen, caught six of Horvath’s seven completions on the day.
“Who wouldn’t go to him?” Horvath said. “Talk about an all-time Navy legend. You’re going to be talking about Eli Heidenreich for years and years and years.”
Although it was clearly a passing situation, and Heidenreich was Navy’s top target, he was single covered over the middle.
“Tried to bring some pressure on them,” Army coach Jeff Monken said. “Good throw and good catch.”
With President Donald Trump in attendance, Navy (10-2) got its second straight victory over Army (6-6), and the Midshipmen won the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy for a second straight season. The Black Knights have not beaten a Navy team that was ranked by the AP since 1955.
Horvath was fortunate to have the chance to throw that decisive touchdown pass. On second-and-goal from the 1, he lost the ball while attempting a tush push. Army linebacker Eric Ford had a chance to scoop it up, but Navy running back Alex Tecza lunged over to prevent that, and Heidenreich eventually fell on the ball back at the 8.
“That’s probably the last thing you want to see on the 1-yard line is you turn around and the ball is just bouncing behind you,” Heidenreich said. “I was blocking down. I thought he had pushed in, and kind of out of my peripheral I saw it going behind me.”
On the next play, Horvath was nearly sacked, but he was able to throw the ball toward Tecza as he went down. The ball fell incomplete instead of being caught around the 15, which was just as well for Navy because it made going for it on fourth down a more viable option.
“I kind of felt like we had to,” Navy coach Brian Newberry said. “The nature of what they do offensively, despite how well we played in the second half, you may not get the ball back.”
Even after Heidenreich’s touchdown and an Army punt, Navy still had to escape one more near-turnover. On third-and-3 from the Army 43, the ball popped loose on a run by Horvath, but he was able to catch it out of the air. It came loose again and the Black Knights recovered, but after a review, Horvath was ruled down before the second fumble — a yard short of the line to gain.
Tecza then ran for the first down that enabled Navy to kneel out the clock, and Horvath appeared to wave goodbye at the Army sideline. There was a bit of a ruckus near midfield after the final kneel-down before things eventually calmed down for the traditional singing of the alma maters.
“They want to talk all their crap during the game and act like they’re so tough,” Horvath said. “The excuse last year was that they played a conference championship game before us. This year, we’ll see what it is.”
The Black Knights were trying to turn the tables on Navy after a ranked Army team — which had just won the American Conference title — lost to the Midshipmen last year.
The teams traded touchdown drives to start the game, each lasting 13 plays, 75 yards and over seven minutes. Horvath had a 5-yard scoring run, and Army quarterback Cale Hellums answered with a 2-yarder. Army’s first drive didn’t end until 5 seconds into the second quarter.
Then it was a while before anyone reached the end zone again. With Army up 10-7 late in the second quarter, the ball slipped out of Horvath’s hand while he was looking to pass. Army recovered the fumble at its own 45 with 20 seconds to play and moved into range for a 45-yard field goal by Dawson Jones.
Navy’s defense stiffened in the second half, but the Midshipmen still flirted with disaster. Horvath threw an interception in the third quarter that was initially returned to the end zone — before a replay showed Army’s Justin Weaver had a knee down when he picked off the pass at the Navy 32. The Black Knights had to settle for three — Dawson connected on a career-long 48-yard kick.
Navy’s Wing-T offense has been explosive this season. The Midshipmen entered the day with an FBS-high 10 plays of at least 60 yards. Army mostly kept them contained, but Horvath slipped free for a 37-yard run that set up a third-quarter field goal that made it 16-10.
After Hellums’ underthrown pass was intercepted by Phillip Hamilton, giving Navy the ball at the 50 with 11:19 to play, Tecza’s 24-yard run made it first-and-goal from the 5.
Trump tossed the coin before the game at midfield, then returned at halftime to walk from the Navy sideline to the Army one.
One that got away
Army defensive lineman Jack Bousum, who is from Annapolis, had a big game against his hometown team. He finished with 1 1/2 sacks and a fumble recovery.
The takeaway
Army: The Black Knights were the better team in the first half Saturday but didn’t do much offensively after that.
“They beat blocks,” Monken said. “We didn’t sustain the blocks we needed to.”
Navy: Horvath made some big plays and some bad ones, and the Navy defense was stout in the second half. The Midshipmen finished tied for first in the AAC this year but missed out on the league title game because of tiebreakers. This victory matters more to them anyway.
Up next
Army: Faces UConn in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 27.
Navy: Faces Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl on Jan. 2.
___
This story has been corrected to show Army took over at the Navy 32 after Horvath’s interception.
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