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The Chinese Base That Isn’t There

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The Chinese Base That Isn’t There

China insists it is not building a naval base in Cambodia. Cambodia says the same.

But this aircraft carrier-ready pier suggests otherwise.

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As does this enormous drydock.

Perched near a major sea route, they appear tailor-made to advance China’s naval ambitions.

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In 2020, something curious happened at Cambodia’s Ream military base, on the Gulf of Thailand.

Not long after submitting — and then abruptly withdrawing — a request for the U.S. Defense Department to refurbish parts of the base, Cambodian officials proceeded to demolish the American-funded buildings that were already there, some only four years old.

Then the Chinese got to work.

Since December, two Chinese warships have docked nearly every day at the rapidly expanding port. And the work taking place at Ream is in keeping with a Chinese building spree that ranges from near the Red Sea to the South China Sea.

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The Chinese military presence near one of the world’s most vital sea lanes raises fundamental questions about Beijing’s ambitions. While the American constellation of military bases remains by far the largest in the world, a resurgent China is bringing countries like Cambodia into its orbit.

“The potential for a permanent Chinese military presence in Cambodia raises significant geopolitical concerns,” said Sophal Ear, a Cambodian-American political scientist at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University. “It could prompt strategic adjustments from the U.S. and heighten global perceptions of Chinese militarization.”

Cambodian and Chinese flags at joint military drills in Cambodia last month.

Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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The Long Visit

On Dec. 3, 2023, Cambodia’s defense minister announced that two Chinese Navy corvettes were visiting Ream for a joint military exercise. Satellite images show that the warships had arrived two days earlier. They have stayed in the vicinity ever since.

The corvettes are the only ships that have docked at the new Chinese-built pier at Ream, which can accommodate ships far larger than any in Cambodia’s fleet. Cambodia’s own smaller corvettes dock at a much more modest pier to the south.

Two Chinese warships have docked at Ream for more than seven months

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Source: Satellite images by Planet Labs

Over the past few years, American officials and Japanese naval vessels have also tried to visit Ream. They were denied full access.

“We are clear eyed about the People’s Republic of China’s efforts to establish overseas military bases, including at Ream,” said John Supple, a Pentagon spokesman. “We’re particularly concerned about the People’s Republic of China’s lack of transparency around its intentions and the terms it negotiates, because countries should be free to make sovereign choices that support their interests and regional security.”

The Cambodians deny any greater Chinese intent.

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When Lloyd J. Austin III, the U.S. secretary of defense, traveled to Cambodia in early June, he was told by his counterparts there that China was simply helping Cambodia modernize its military, not building a base for itself.

“The Ream military base is Cambodia’s, not the military base of any country,” Mey Dina, the commander of the base, told The New York Times. “It is not right to say that the base is controlled by China.”

While the construction at Ream is still underway, no foreign vessels will be allowed to dock there, Mr. Mey Dina said. The foreign vessels that have been docked there for more than half a year — the Chinese corvettes — were for “training only,” he said.


Power Projection

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China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has articulated a grand vision for his growing superpower. Chief among his military goals: a blue-water navy that can project Beijing’s might far from China’s shores.

Today, China boasts the world’s largest navy in terms of the number of vessels. And it has added aircraft carriers to its fleet.

But navies of this size and scope, operating thousands of miles from home, need access to bases abroad.

In 2017, after years of evasiveness about what was being built, China completed its first base on foreign soil, in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa.

The pier at Ream appears similar to one at China’s Djibouti Naval Base

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Sources: BlackSky; Center for Strategic and International Studies (C.S.I.S.); satellite images by Planet Labs on May 27 and May 8, 2024.

That same year, China put finishing touches on a far more startling project in disputed waters in the South China Sea.

Churning up coral and sand from the ocean floor, state-owned dredgers created military installations on what had once been placid atolls called the Spratlys. An international tribunal has ruled that some of those specks of land are not Chinese territory.

The same kind of state-owned dredgers are now operating in Ream. Out of reclaimed land, they have created a wharf and dry dock, each of which far surpasses the needs of the Cambodian fleet.

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Still, unlike the installations at the Spratlys, Ream does not appear to have building sites reserved for missile launchers or fighter jet hangars. Ream may be primarily intended as a resupply station for the Chinese navy, according to satellite analysts.

China’s military footprint abroad is small but growing

Sources: C.S.I.S.; Congressional Research Service; satellite images by Planet Labs.

Note: Completion year based on first report of personnel deployment or training exercise.

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“Ream is more like China playing roulette as it looks for ports for the blue water navy that Xi Jinping wants,” said Gregory B. Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I don’t think any Chinese planner looked at all the possible locations around the world and said, ‘Ream is the one we need.’ It’s more that Ream is one of the only ones on offer because China has no real allies and few friends.”


Commercial Beachheads

Even as the dredgers were working overtime at the Spratlys, Mr. Xi stood at the White House and swatted away fears that China’s new islands — which now bristle with fighter jet-ready runways, radar domes and warehouses made for missiles — were for military purposes. Chinese officials said they would be havens for tourism.

China’s base building has depended on state-owned companies, which are legally obligated to pursue the country’s national security interests, to make the initial forays. Chinese officials are blunt about the strategy: “First civilian, then military,” is how they put it.

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China has expanded its commercial influence across the world’s seas

Source: AidData

Note: Data shows ports partially or fully financed by Chinese state-owned companies via loans and grants made in 2000–2021 for implementation 2000–2023. Map shows only projects over $10 Million.

Establishing a commercial beachhead is easier in countries where China already holds economic sway.

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In recent years, Cambodia has steadily marched into China’s arms. Its longtime leader, Hun Sen, used to excoriate the United States for linking its aid and investment to improvements in the country’s human rights record.

Now, Cambodia is led by Mr. Hun Sen’s son, Hun Manet, who, although a graduate of the United States Military Academy, has shown little inclination so far to recalibrate from his father’s pro-China bent.

Ream is 80 percent finished, according to its commander, Mr. Mey Dina. Military analysts expect that the base will be complete by the end of the year.

Not far away, a Chinese company has carved out of once-protected jungle a runway long enough to accommodate bombers, which Cambodia does not have. The company says the airfield is largely intended for Chinese holiday-goers.

That is reminiscent of the innocent explanations offered for the Chinese construction in the Spratlys and Djibouti, said Mr. Ear, the political scientist.

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“China downplays or misrepresents the military nature of its overseas installations,” he said. “Despite Cambodia’s denials, the lack of transparency and the close relationship between Cambodia and China suggest the possibility that Ream could follow this familiar playbook.”

Chinese and Cambodian sailors stand guard on deck of a Chinese navy ship.

Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


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‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty

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‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
  • Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
  • Treaty expires on February 5
  • Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
  • China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.

“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”

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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.

“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.

A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer, opens new tab made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.

The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.

New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.

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Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.

Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.

“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”

“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.

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A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.

New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.

As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.

“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.

“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.

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MADURO ARREST SENDS ‘CLEAR MESSAGE’ TO DRUG CARTELS, ALLIES AND US RIVALS, RETIRED ADMIRAL SAYS

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)

Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.

“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”

“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.

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“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”

Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.

“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.

WAS TRUMP’S MADURO OPERATION ILLEGAL? WHAT INTERNATIONAL LAW HAS TO SAY

Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)

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As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.

“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.

Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.

Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.

The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.

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FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY

Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)

Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”

Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.

Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.

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“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.

“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”

Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.

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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.

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As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.

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Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate

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Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate

US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.

United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.

On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.

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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”

The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.

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Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.

The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.

Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.

The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.

“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.

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Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.

The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.

Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.

“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.

“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”

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Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.

The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.

On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.

Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.

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But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.

“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”

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