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Russian military expert on Ukraine: ‘War could end this year’
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Moscow, Russia – As the primary anniversary of the conflict approaches on Friday, Al Jazeera spoke to Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence analyst who served as a senior analysis officer within the Soviet Academy of Sciences.
Felgenhauer, who has revealed extensively on Russian overseas and defence insurance policies, army doctrine, arms commerce and the military-industrial advanced, believes the conflict is more likely to escalate however might finish this 12 months.
In keeping with him, after 12 months of bloody battles, “the depth of the combating is simply too excessive for it to be maintained for lengthy”.
Which facet will in the end seize a decisive victory?
Like most consultants, he says it’s merely unpredictable.
Al Jazeera: Why do you suppose an escalation is imminent?
Pavel Felgenhauer: We can not completely predict the whole lot. However I consider that an escalation proper now could be imminent. An escalation within the combating; everyone seems to be speaking a few Russian offensive. Western army commanders in Brussels are additionally speaking about how the Ukrainians ought to go on the offensive. Common Mark Milley [Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff], who a 12 months in the past was speaking about how Kyiv might fall in couple of days, now says that Russia has misplaced strategically, operationally and tactically, and Ukraine ought to form of exit to complete them off.
Ukraine is getting ready one thing, however once more after all, everyone seems to be following the teachings of Solar Tzu, that means conflict is deceit. And if you wish to assault, you fake that you simply don’t, when you’re able to assault and robust sufficient, you fake that you simply’re not prepared and also you’re not sturdy in any respect. And vice versa — when you’re not sturdy, you fake that you’re sturdy. So there’s plenty of disinformation proper now circling round. All sides is in search of shock.
Al Jazeera: However there have already been surprises on the battlefields?
Felgenhauer: Ukrainians did it in September in Kharkiv. They achieved shock and achieved quite a bit. Not solely did they seize some vital strategic factors and drive the Russians to withdraw from Kherson to get the reserves — in addition they pressured the Russians to start the mobilisation programme that brought about numerous economical and political issues.
I imply, they withdrew a number of hundred thousand males from the financial system into the army, and virtually as much as two million fled the nation on the similar time — which is a giant drag on the financial system too.
Al Jazeera: Isn’t Russia faring higher than anticipated? Doesn’t the financial system appear to be steady even after strict sanctions?
Felgenhauer: Russia, after all proper now, has very severe monetary issues with a deficit that’s being financed by and printing cash. It has issues on the battlefield on the similar time.
I don’t see how this could proceed within the current sample for a very long time. It’s like soccer, you by no means know what’s going to occur really on the battlefield. There’s a widely known saying that “Russia is rarely a robust as your concern”, as we see throughout this 12 months, however “Russia can also be by no means as weak as you hope”. So you’ll be able to’t simply write off Russia. The depth of the combating is simply too excessive for it to be maintained for lengthy.
There will probably be issues within the West with provide, however they’re a bit extra manageable as a result of the Rammstein collation’s gross GDP is greater than 100 occasions of Russia. So financially and economically, they’re extra ready for an extended battle than the Russians.
However who’s going to win? I don’t know, conflict is like soccer. Everybody who believes that Brazil ought to win nevertheless it doesn’t win each time.
Al Jazeera: Whether it is such a drag, why did Russian President Vladimir Putin go to conflict?
Felgenhauer: There was a army cause — to forestall Western missiles showing in Ukraine for a direct strike on Moscow.
There was a geopolitical cause — to reunite the Russian folks, assuming that Ukrainians are Russian folks, and to defy the West and really undermine Western unity.
Additionally, to trigger friction throughout the Western alliance and in addition set up a brand new multipolar world.
So there have been numerous totally different causes, together with the idea that the Russian army is so sturdy that that is going to be a really swift and really efficient army victory that can deliver numerous totally different political, financial and geopolitical dividends. That that is the fitting factor in the fitting time.
Al Jazeera: So what went unsuitable for Russia?
Felgenhauer: The Russian army turned out to be not as sturdy as not solely the West believes, however its personal management believes. It’s not prepared for contemporary warfare.
The Ukrainians are a lot better, they have been higher ready organisationally and when it comes to command and management, when it comes to command personnel, after which they acquired higher weapons than the Russians.
The Russian army has been remoted for greater than 100 years from world tendencies in war-making. They’re nonetheless residing on this planet of tanks, believing that when you mass sufficient, victory falls into your lap.
They weren’t ready intellectually, mentally, and bodily for the battle.
There have been, after all, folks even within the Russian army saying that this can be a unhealthy concept, that there’s going to be plenty of Ukrainian resistance, that Ukraine has numerous troops — and there’s going to be Western help.
However those that have been making the highest political selections apparently lived within the dream world.
Al Jazeera: However tensions between Ukraine, an ex-Soviet state eager to be absorbed into the Western political panorama, and Russia didn’t start out of the blue on February 24, 2022. There’s a historic context to all this, isn’t there?
Felgenhauer: After all, this battle has a protracted historical past after the demise of the Soviet Union and the breakup between Ukraine and Russia. This was a severe trauma for the Russian elite. They believed that this was unsuitable and Ukraine was seen as an integral a part of Russia. So, in the long run, we are going to all get again collectively, again once more fortunately into one nice huge outdated Russian household. That’s what many officers informed me within the Nineties — that there have been no issues that, as an illustration, there are detrimental beginning charges in Russia and the variety of Russians is declining. They stated, ‘No downside, Pavel, we are going to take over a half of Ukraine or Belarus, a half of Kazakhstan, will get after 40 million good Slavic folks into the fold and the whole lot goes to be simply OK’.
The concept that Ukraine has left Russia for good and can turn out to be a completely unbiased entity was probably not contemplated. Possibly as a brief factor, however not for retains.
Al Jazeera: The place does Putin stand on this?
Felgenhauer: Putin has been saying successfully {that a} semi-independent Ukraine is tolerable, so long as it had a form of political integration with Russia.
However for Ukraine to turn out to be a member of the European Union, a member of NATO, that’s completely unacceptable. [Russia] consider many Ukrainians and Russian audio system might not need that. [Until recently] Ukrainian becoming a member of NATO was not a majority opinion in Ukraine. So this was a form of shifting issue that [Russia believed it] ought to forestall — the combination of Ukraine in European and Atlantic constructions, particularly NATO.
Al Jazeera: Is it simply sociopolitical? An opposition to the combination of Russian audio system with Europe…
Felgenhauer: There are particular army causes.
The Russian army, for the reason that time of the Chilly Battle, believed the West is getting ready so-called decapitating assaults. [So the theory goes], any form of conflict between Russia and NATO, or Russia and the US, begins with a decapitating assault to bodily destroy and to disable the Russian army and political management. Their plans are to decapitate Russia after which end all of the disorganised resistance.
The West has been constructing capabilities for such a strike. This led to the missile disaster in Europe of the Eighties, when the People deployed ballistic missiles which have been correct. These have been missiles with guided warheads that would attain Moscow area in a number of minutes from Germany and in addition cruise missiles that have been smaller but in addition have been very correct. This disaster virtually led to conflict after which disarmament with the top of the Chilly Battle. However the Russian army by no means forgot it.
Al Jazeera: So what has the army been telling its commander-in-chief?
Felgenhauer: From the time of the Soviet political bureau, it’s been basically telling the political elite, “These guys wish to kill you. Personally, you, members of the Kremlin, the ruling political bureau”.
Then they have been telling the identical to President Vladimir Putin, that there’s a decapitating assault being ready. That is very severe.
Al Jazeera: Why hasn’t diplomacy labored?
Felgenhauer: Within the West, some say the battle could be frozen on current situations, others wish to proceed to defeat Russia on the battlefield. There’s no unity of their ranks.
There’s not actual incentive for Russia both, for President Putin to give up Kherson, Mariupol, Crimea, even the Donbas — it seems like political suicide.
The Minsk agreements, in September 2014, have been signed due to a Russian initiative. There was no Western mediation with Minsk I as a result of the considering was that [then-president Petro] Poroshenko can have sufficient energy to make offers with Russia. He will probably be our man. Then there was Minsk II, that took place with European moderation.
What Russia wished was a assure that it’s going to have a foothold in Ukraine. It turned out that it doesn’t work and Ukraine is shifting within the “unsuitable course”. The Russian army was able to go earlier than; really in 2014 [Russian defence minister Sergei] Shoigu introduced that we’re going over the border in April. Then a number of occasions, they ready. The final huge dry run was in April 2021, when Russia gathered a large drive on the Ukrainian borders however then didn’t go in.
Al Jazeera: Absolutely there’s a super human and financial price for this conflict of attrition?
Felgenhauer: There are actually heavy losses on either side. We’re speaking about super lack of life. Apparently, these losses will not be prohibitive and each Russians and Ukrainians are able to proceed. So either side proper now, each individuals are able to proceed the combat. However I don’t suppose that this can final indefinitely.
Al Jazeera: Do you consider that this battle will come to its finish quickly?
Felgenhauer: I consider it should finish this 12 months.
They tried talks in March, then conferences in Istanbul, which hinted that they’re shifting in the direction of some form of an settlement. However Russia and Ukraine have been miles aside.
Ukraine was kind of able to agree in February 2022. Now Ukrainians say they need extra and Russia additionally says it desires extra. So once more, two sides are miles aside.
Plainly there’s no political settlement or perhaps a tentative ceasefire within the offing.
After all, Russia proper now desires to freeze the state of affairs kind of as it’s on the road of management, as it’s. Ukraine says it doesn’t need that. Somebody has to present. And that’s probably going to be on the battlefield.
If one facet will start to obviously win on the battlefield, that will probably be decisive. Army victory can deliver the opposite facet to actual disaster — and possibly even regime change.
This interview was flippantly edited for readability and brevity.
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World
Trudeau called out by steelworker who refuses to shake his hand during blunt exchange: 'Don't believe you'
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau got an earful during a photo op from a cash-strapped steelworker who told the leader his policies have left his family scratching to make ends meet.
Footage of the tense exchange in Sault Ste. Marie, a city in Ontario, which was obtained by CTV News, went viral. The unidentified worker spurned Trudeau’s offer of doughnuts to complain about high taxes, medical bills and giveaways to people he deemed “lazy.”
“The 25% tariffs we just brought in is going to help you out … that’s going to keep your job,” Trudeau told the man.
“What about the 40% taxes I am paying? And I don’t have a doctor,” the employee of Algoma Steel shot back.
CANADA MOVES TO LIMIT IMMIGRATION AMID STRAINED RELATIONS WITH US
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP)
Trudeau responded by saying that a multimillion-dollar investment from the Canadian government meant the man would have a job “for many years to come.” The man responded by saying that he expected Trudeau to be voted out.
“That’s what elections are for,” said the Liberal Party leader, who stayed calm and collected during the exchange. “I look forward to everyone exercising the right to vote. … We are going to invest in you and your job.”
“I don’t believe you for a second,” the steelworker shot back.
The man also mentioned that he felt unemployed Canadians got better access to affordable health care than he did after Trudeau referenced an initiative to help hundreds of thousands of Canadians get dental care.
CANADA’S TRUDEAU TO REMAIN IN OFFICE DESPITE LOSS OF KEY SEAT IN SPECIAL ELECTION
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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Arlyn McAdorey/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Probably like my neighbor who doesn’t go to work because she’s lazy?” the steelworker asked.
“You know what? Most Canadians try to stick up for each other, and that’s what we’ve got to keep doing,” Trudeau responded before wishing the man good luck. At the end, the laborer appeared to refuse a handshake from Trudeau.
The next federal election in Canada is set to take place on Oct. 20, 2025. Trudeau’s government has been scrutinized amid a cost-of-living crisis affecting the country, though Trudeau has remained optimistic.
“Inflation came down last month, beating out expectations,” the prime minister wrote in a Facebook post on July 17. “But, until Canadians can feel that relief in their wallets, at the grocery store, and on their mortgages, the job’s not done.”
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Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, center, is shown during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, not pictured, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, on Sept. 22, 2023. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Fox News Digital reached out to Trudeau’s office for comment.
World
Taiwan court orders release of ex-Taipei mayor arrested in corruption probe
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Taiwan People’s Party leader Ko Wen-je freed after court finds insufficient evidence to justify his detention.
A court in Taiwan has ordered the release of a former mayor and presidential candidate who was arrested over his alleged role in a corruption scandal, citing insufficient evidence for his detention.
Taipei District Court on Monday ruled that Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and the leader of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), should go free after finding that prosecutors had failed to make the case for his detention.
The court said prosecutors had not met the standard of there being a “high possibility” Ko had committed a crime.
“It cannot be concluded that the defendant… knowingly violated the law,” the court said in its ruling.
Ko was arrested on Saturday as part of a probe into alleged corruption in the redevelopment of the Core Pacific City shopping centre in the Taiwanese capital.
Ko, who came third in January’s presidential election, told reporters outside court that there was “no evidence” of his involvement in the real estate scandal.
A surgeon by training, Ko entered politics in 2014 when he successfully ran for the mayorship of Taipei as an independent candidate.
Re-elected as mayor of Taipei in 2018, he founded the TPP the following year as a third force to challenge the dominance of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and China-leaning Kuomintang (KMT).
Under the TPP banner, Ko received about one-quarter of the vote in the last presidential election, which was won by the DPP’s William Lai Ching-te.
While the TPP has only eight legislators in Taiwan’s 113-seat parliament, the party has gained outsized influence as both the DPP and KMT lack a ruling majority.
Ko, who draws much of his support from young people, is widely seen as a contender for the next election in 2028, although his popularity has been dented by a separate campaign funds scandal.
On Thursday, Ko said he would take a three-month leave of absence from the TPP leadership to take responsibility for the misreporting of campaign money and the use of election subsidies to set up a personal office space.
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